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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PV - SWR, PWR (& SWRM)
    Examples
    Period 01/1985-05/2023 (as far back as free PV goes)
    Fund SWR PWR
    VWINX 8.76% 5.53%
    VWELX 9.77% 6.64%
    ABALX 9.35% 6.29%
    VFINX 10.93% 7.52%
    So, in this period of about 37.5 years, the realized SWRs were much higher than Bengen's 4% rule. Equities did well and more equities, the better. PWRs weren't that much lower - remember that with PWRs, your or your heirs would also have the inflation-adjusted initial lump-sum on hand.
    Period 01/2000-12/2009 (a tough decade)
    Fund SWR PWR
    VWINX 13.28% 4.14%
    VWELX 12.31% 3.41%
    ABALX 12.88% 2.98%
    VFINX 7.42% 0.00
    SWRs look high but remember that the initial balance is also exhausted in 10 years, and that alone at 0% return will be SWR of 10%. PWRs are low and more meaningful for this period. If some more aggressive funds are included, those may fail and would just show the PWR of 0.00% (as for VFINX/SP500).
  • Harry Markowitz, Modern Portfolio Theory Pioneer, Dies at 95
    It’s well known that Bill Gross cut-his-teeth as a professional blackjack dealer before becoming an investor. Perhaps lesser known is that the legendary Louis Rukeyser of PBS’s Wall Street Week fame was also a devoted casino gambler.
    ”One cost of celebrity for Mr. Rukeyser was the jibes he would have to bear while indulging his fondness for casino gambling. No sooner had he settled into a blackjack game, he once recalled, than someone would ask him if the odds at the table were really better than those on Wall Street.”
    Interesting 2006 NYT article putting Rukeyser and the show into perspective:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/03/business/media/03rukeyser.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    LCORX?
    I have been recommending PRWCX easily over 10 years. It's one of the best allocation funds of all time. Yes, I know, it's a flexible go-anywhere fund.
    Since the inception of LCORX...LCORX made 695% while PRWCX made "only" 1453.8%(more than double). I don't know how Giroux keeps doing it with AUM over 50 bil, just amazing.
  • Harry Markowitz, Modern Portfolio Theory Pioneer, Dies at 95
    Wiki: "Markowitz.....optimization.....optimal mean-variance portfolios..... In 1954, he received a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago with a thesis on the portfolio theory. The topic was so novel that, while Markowitz was defending his dissertation, Milton Friedman argued his contribution was not economics"
    And Milton Friedman was his PhD co-advisor!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markowitz
  • FundX reorganizes two mutual funds into ETFs
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1602508/000089418923004374/fundxmutualfundstoetfconve.htm
    497 1 fundxmutualfundstoetfconve.htm 497E MUTUAL FUNDS TO ETFS CONVERSION
    FundX Flexible Income Fund – INCMX
    FundX Conservative Upgrader Fund – RELAX
    Supplement dated June 26, 2023 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated January 30, 2023
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with those documents. This supplement is being provided for information purposes only; no securities are being offered hereby.
    The Board of Trustees of FundX Investment Trust (the “Trust”), at a board meeting held on May 17, 2023, approved converting each Fund into an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) by the reorganization of each Fund into a corresponding ETF, as listed below. Each ETF will be a newly created series of the Trust.
    Fund ETF
    FundX Flexible Income Fund→FundX Flexible ETF
    FundX Conservative Upgrader Fund→FundX Conservative ETF
    There will be no change to each Fund’s investment objective, investment strategies or portfolio management as a result of the reorganizations.
    Further information with respect to the reorganizations will be mailed before the consummation of the reorganizations to holders of each Fund’s shares as of the record date.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus and SAI dated January 30, 2023 for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund at 1-866-455‑FUND [3863].
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus and SAI.
  • Brown Advisory Total Return Fund was reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418923004381/baf-tr_497e.htm
    497 1 baf-tr_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
    Brown Advisory Total Return Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Shares (BAFTX)
    Investor Shares (BIATX)
    Supplement dated June 26, 2023
    to the Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information
    dated October 31, 2022
    1. Shares of the Fund Are No Longer Available for Purchase
    As the result of a reorganization transaction pursuant to which the Fund was reorganized with and into the Brown Advisory Sustainable Bond Fund effective as of the close of business on June 23, 2023, the Fund is no longer operational and its shares are no longer offered for sale.
    If you have any questions, please call the Fund at 1-800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064
    Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.
  • AlphaMark Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1438681/000158064223003318/alphamarksupplement.htm
    497 1 alphamarksupplement.htm 497
    Supplement dated June 26, 2023
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) of AlphaMark Fund (the “Fund”)
    ALPHAMARK FUND
    Ticker Symbol: AMLCX
    This Supplement provides new and additional information beyond that in, and should be read in conjunction with, the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    The Board of Trustees of AlphaMark Investment Trust (the “Trust”), after notice of the Advisor’s termination of the investment advisory agreement and based on information provided by AlphaMark Advisors, LLC (the “Advisor”), has determined that it is in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be liquidated. In connection therewith, the Board has approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (the “Plan”) for the Fund. Effective immediately, the Fund will cease to pursue its investment objective, will cease selling shares, and the Fund’s investment manager, AlphaMark Advisors, LLC, may begin liquidating the Fund’s investments.
    Pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its investments and thereafter redeem all of its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Fund investment after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The Advisor anticipates that the assets of the Fund will be fully liquidated and all outstanding shares redeemed on or about July 31, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice to shareholders, as the liquidation of the Fund’s assets or winding up of the Fund’s affairs may take longer than expected.
    Until the Liquidation Date, you may continue to freely redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the section in the Prospectus entitled “How to Redeem Shares.” Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Dividends, Distributions and Taxes” sections in the Fund’s Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular tax situation.
    As a result of the anticipated liquidation of the Fund, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will hold cash and cash equivalents, such as money market funds, until all investments have been converted to cash and all shares have been redeemed. During this period, your investment in a Fund may not experience the gains (or losses) that would be typical if the Fund were still pursuing its investment objective.
    Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares prior to distribution, unless you have previously requested payment in cash.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO THE LIQUIDATION DATE WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES REDEEMED AUTOMATICALLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON THE LIQUIDATION DATE. THE PROCEEDS OF ANY SUCH REDEMPTION WILL BE EQUAL TO THE NET ASSET VALUE OF SUCH SHARES AFTER THE FUND HAS PAID OR PROVIDED FOR ALL OF ITS CHARGES, TAXES, EXPENSES AND LIABILITIES. ANY LIQUIDATING DISTRIBUTION, WHICH MAY BE IN CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS EQUAL TO EACH RECORD SHAREHOLDER’S PROPORTIONATE INTEREST OF THE NET ASSETS OF THE FUND, DUE TO THE FUND’S SHAREHOLDERS WILL BE SENT TO THE SHAREHOLDER’S ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-866-420-3350.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund at 1-866-420-3350.
    This Supplement and the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference.
  • M* Rekenthaler on Retirement Income
    401a allows employer & employee contribution. So, those could be combo mandatory & optional plans.
    401k/403b are optional plans with employee contributions.
    All of this is under the IRS code section 401 and within it are subsections 401k, 403, 457, 457b.
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    No question, fees are high and assets are small on LSLTX. The mainstay here is LCORX, but that is much harder to compare against anything as it holds different asset classes and moves around them tactically. If anything, a somewhat fair comparison would be against a traditional 60/40 indexed balanced fund like VBIAX. My cursory analysis is since its 1995 inception, LCORX has beaten VBIAX with a cumulative 695% return versus VBIAX's 651%, but there has been much fluctuation between the two in recent years. As I've said previously, Leuthold is a good shop. But it's a mistake to ever rule the indexers out.
  • Harry Markowitz, Modern Portfolio Theory Pioneer, Dies at 95
    Harry Markowitz, the Nobel-winning economist renowned for developing Modern Portfolio Theory,
    died on Thursday in San Diego. Mr. Markowitz was 95. May he rest in peace.
    "Until Dr. Markowitz came along, the investment world assumed that the best stock-market strategy was simply to choose the shares of a group of companies that were thought to have the best prospects."
    "But in 1952, he published his dissertation, 'Portfolio Selection,' which overturned this common sense approach with what became known as modern portfolio theory, widely referred to as M.P.T."
    "The heart of his research was grounded in the basic relationship between risk and reward. He showed that the risk in any portfolio is less dependent on the riskiness of its component stocks and other assets than how they relate to one another. It was the first time that the benefits of diversification had been codified and quantified, using advanced mathematics to calculate correlations and variations from the mean."
    Link
    An interesting side note pertaining to behavioral economics.
    Jason Zweig interviewed Prof. Markowitz in 1997 regarding his portfolio asset allocation in the mid-1950s.
    Mr. Markowitz responded:
    "I should have computed the historical co-variances of the asset classes and drawn an efficient frontier.
    Instead, I visualized my grief if the stock market went way up and I wasn’t in it – or if it went way down
    and I was completely in it. My intention was to minimize my future regret.
    So I split my contributions 50/50 between bonds and equities."

    Link
  • Financial Markets History & Evolution of Financial Advice
    The number of publicly listed companies peaked at over 8,000 in 1996
    (according to several reports) but has fallen precipitously since then.
    The decision by many companies to remain private influenced this decline.
    It seems kind of crazy there were almost three times as many U.S. mutual funds/ETFs
    (12/31/2022) relative to the number of Wilshire 5000 stocks (03/31/2023).
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    @MikeW, LSLTX does mild sector rotation with top 3 sectors now being techs, consumer cyclicals, industrials, accounting for 58% of tiny fund assets. This strategy never became popular and not many such funds exist anymore. You also noted its high ER.
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    The Q1 2023 Quarterly Report indicates LSLTX had net assets totaling $12.8 million.
    Per the prospectus dated 01/31/2023, the fund's net annual expense ratio is 1.50%.
    The gross expense ratio before reimbursement (contract runs through 11/13/2023) is 1.86%.
    The fund's high cost will be a challenging hurdle to overcome.
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    @MikeW, for LSLTX (seems the only class) Fido shows AUM range of $9.50 (2020) - $19.86 (2017) million for 2014-23; now $11.89 million.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/view-all/527289201?type=sq-NavBar
  • Doug Ramsey, Leuthold CIO, on investing in the markets ahead
    Very interesting discussion…. A couple of questions about LSLTX…. First on Morningstar it says the fund only has $12M in assets. That seems awfully small for a fund that’s been around this long. Wondering if this is accurate. And Second the expense rate at 1.5% is high. Is Leuthold good enough that he can overcome such a high rate?
  • What happened to CCOR?
    DIVO holds these 24 stocks:
    MICROSOFT CORP
    VISA INC
    JOHNSON & JOHNSON
    PROCTER AND GAMBLE CO
    UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
    MCDONALDS CORP
    CHEVRON CORP NEW
    MERCK & CO INC
    JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.
    GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
    APPLE INC
    UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC
    DEERE & CO
    HOME DEPOT INC
    WALMART INC
    LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP
    GENERAL MLS INC
    DUKE ENERGY CORP NEW
    MARATHON PETE CORP
    SCHLUMBERGER LTD
    COCA COLA CO
    STARBUCKS CORP
    DOW INC
    VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC
    and also this:
    UPS US 07/21/23 C190
    GS US 07/21/23 C370
    DUK US 07/21/23 C97.5
    DE US 07/21/23 C440
    MPC US 07/21/23 C125
    SLB US 07/21/23 C52.5
    DOW US 06/30/23 C53
    UNITEDHE CLL OPT 07/23 510
    GIS US 07/21/23 C85
    JOHNSON CLL OPT 07/23 170
  • What happened to CCOR?
    ”It's too bad CCOR is stinking up the place this year as I've been interested in this fund for a while. Admittedly, some of my interest faded when short-term Treasuries started yielding over 4% and now 5%. High quality bonds are far more attractive today than they were at the start of 2022 … “
    Well, an early guess of mine (same thread) was that folks have shifted into cash, CDs and the like. If so, the swoon could partially reflect assets moving out of the types of things CCOR owns, or actually fleeing the fund. Without looking, I’d have to guess the latter is true, as today’s fund investors aren’t likely to sit on a stinker like this too long. What I wonder is - if being and an ETF, CCOR might be more susceptible to funds fleeing (and associated damage) than say a mutual fund with tighter trading restrictions? If so, there might be a valuable lesson here for all of us who have gravitated to ETFs.
    None of this is intended to overlook the keen insights @DavidSnowball and others have submitted. All of the replies in the thread make good sense to me. And much appreciated.