TROW up 5.04% for 5 days-This trade may yet be profitable for me!

4-Week 912797FR3 06/06/2023 07/05/2023 5.130% 5.237%
8-Week 912797GA9 06/06/2023 08/01/2023 5.220% 5.350%
17-Week 912797GV3 06/06/2023 10/03/2023 5.325% 5.511%
@yogibearbull That's what I found earlier today. NO 06/07 auction it appears. Issue , auction, & announcement are all self explanatory .
YBB Thanks again Your second link shows an auction for 17 week T-Bill. Added on 06/07

I have to wonder if it's just the S&P 500 Elite 7 that are in a bull market. Can you imagine if the remaining 493 equities in the S&P 500 decide to join the party? Just thinking out loud.

”It’s official. We’re in a bull market” / Article
Nice to report some good news.
“The S&P 500 rallied Thursday to end the day in a bull market, marking a 20% surge since its most recent low, reached on October 12, 2022. That brings to end the bear market that began in January 2022. Buoyed by gains in big technology stocks, the broad-based index closed at 4,293.93 and crossed the threshold that separates a bear market from a bull market — that’s investor-speak for a period of time marked by rising stock prices and optimism on Wall Street. Investors are certainly in a buying mood: CNN’s Fear and Greed Index hit ‘Extreme Greed’ Thursday. Markets have remained surprisingly resilient over the past nine months, as 2022 losers like tech and media have bounced back from a disastrous year on hope that the worst is over for those industries.”
d

https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1666887612873728000
@ybb testing to see if this works.

@LewisBraham- Sorry, but I have to disagree on this one- the Examiner article refers to an individual as I described above in reply to Anna: an ordinary person who has fallen on really bad times. There are in fact a number of organizations here in SF who do really excellent work in helping out in those types of situations, and my wife and I have substantially supported them for many years.
To repeat- the majority though, at least here in SF, are druggies, thieves and crazies who respond to nothing other than their next high. A number of the hotels described in the Examiner article were substantially trashed during the pandemic temporary housing program- something that the Examiner chose not to report.
A short excerpt from a pertinent report in the San Francisco Chronicle:

Hotels are seeking millions from S.F. for damage when they were homeless shelters.
Hotel Union Square’s cleanup bill was steep — $5.6 million to repair rampant smoke damage, broken light fixtures, mold and other problems.
As city supervisors consider shelling out millions to settle the dispute over damages at one of San Francisco’s hotel homeless shelters, taxpayers could be on the hook for millions more to settle similar claims from other hotels that participated in the program.
In September 2021, the owners of Hotel Union Square filed a claim with the city, alleging unhoused residents who the city had placed there had caused $5.6 million in damages — and cost the Dallas-based hotel operator hundreds of thousands more in lost rent.
City officials created the Hotel Program in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and used it to house more than 3,700 high-risk residents in 25 hotels. With federal and state funding drying up, the city has gradually closed most of the hotels.

@Old_Joe The homeless situation in SF is more complex and the hotel program was more successful than you're acknowledging: https://sfexaminer.com/news/politics/pandemic-shelters-may-set-path-for-sf-homeless-response/article_b956bd42-da44-11ed-b04b-7f692881f8fd.html

Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.

Your comment sounds like a pitch to be a buy and hold investor now. That seems a bit out of character for a well known trader.

Lots of negativity on bonds here. I can understand the allure of cash when you can get 5.08% at firms like Schwab. Yet many bond funds are on pace for double digit returns in 2023. Albeit much of those gains were front loaded in January/February. There is even more negativity on commercial real estate. Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash.

Read the YBB thread above. Doesn't bode well for bonds if Treasuries higher yield flood the market.

As I said in a post on the Treasury thread, I don't agree with the terminology of Treasuries flooding the market. I read the Treasury article as a slow, gradual, introduction of shorter term securities, likely trying to avoid spooking the market. That could be good for slightly higher interest rate CDs, but also a trend of bonds gaining some traction. I keep expecting FR/BLs to become more "interesting".

Looks like the bond market will take a hit as a consequence. Gains made this year could be in jeopardy. Great...

I agree with Derf's comments above that "flood" is not an accurate descriptive term. This statement, "Treasury plans to increase issuance of Treasury bills to continue financing the government and to gradually rebuild the cash balance over time to a level more consistent with Treasury’s cash balance policy. Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities and cash management bills (CMBs), including the introduction of a regular weekly 6-week CMB (the first of which will be announced on June 8)." I see phrases like "gradually rebuild cash balance" and "initial increases...will be focused on shorter-tenor...securities", as suggestive of slow and careful actions, not a "flooding" of issuance of Treasuries. I expect both Treasuries and CDs to reflect these more gradual increases, to not spook the market, and not lead to an unnecessary recession.

@larryB,
haha, what you said:
>> fascinated by how the algorithm seems to have lost its mojo after a long and sorta steady run
only the tired 'value' lesson of 'works until it doesn't'
Also like CCOR; that defunct growth-over-value thing of recent loser yore; and so much else
Waiting for DIVO (which I do not own yet) to stall.
There should be an etf called MOJO.
Bloomberg has a recent article whose hed is something like 'SP500 tech heaviness is a feature, not a bug'; maybe it's been posted or pointed to already.

Prior attempts for bullish turns fizzled in 2022 and 2023YTD, so watch if the BIG turn this week sticks. Max bullish was 75%, far from where we are, and 50s become high. Remember, sentiment surveys are contrarian, so buy/hold when max bearishness, sell when max bullishness.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/7/23
Vow! Bullish became the top sentiment (44.5%; above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.2%; near average)

Big changes from a week ago based on whether the debt-ceiling deal will pass which it did ! The bulls went from 29% to 40% in one week.

Liesman/CNBC dissects Treasury's "gradual" euphemism. I also double-checked - it's Liesman, not Leisman.
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1666766270052679680
@Crash, TIPS should be affected to the extent of the correlation between nominal and real rates, but no direct impact.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/7/23
Vow! Bullish became the top sentiment (44.5%; above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was +24.3% (above average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (67+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil up sharply, gold down, dollar down a bit. Post-debt-ceiling, yields to rise, financial liquidity to drain due to huge Treasury issuances. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1062/thread

Anyone know if the concentration of holdings in a relative few companies is historically significant? I know the index is cap weighted but is todays concentration out of the ordinary? Thanks for your replies.

Not responsive to your specific question, but I have spent a few hours the last few weeks comparing RSP vs IVV and IVE, also VONE vs VONV, also the gaming value outliers SCHD and DIVO and CAPE.
While looking hard at UI.
Even VONE all by itself has a breadth that (as you might think) counters the top-heavy IVV. Counters meaning underperforms.
5-3-1y and 8mos. I use M* and Fido to do longer comparisons, as they exist.
Anyway, if I were really smart I would be able to convey what the lessons are which I have learned. IVV or VONE in combo w low-UI DIVO looks like a winner. He said.
(How's this for unhelpful?)

DT: Good on ya. Can't tie up my $$$ for very long like that. Of course, I'm investing, and that's long-term. What you're doing with CDs, I'n doing with bond OEFs.

Crash, I understand. I am retired and focused on preserving principal, while making a decent TR with CD interest payments. After I retired, I focused on making 4 to 6% TR, but CDs paid nothing, and so I chose to focus on low risk bond oefs. Loved those years with PIMIX from which I collected monthly income payments that were very predictable and dependable. I had several other bond oefs that I did well with--SEMMX, VCFIX, NVHAX, etc. When the FEDs got serious about raising interest rates, bond oefs got less appealing to me, but CDs became attractive alternatives. I have no idea how long I can ride the CD gravy train, but for now, I will enjoy the stress free 5% returns during my "golden years". I keep watching Floating Rate Bank Loan funds, which I played with for a few years, and keep wondering when they will start benefiting from the rising interest rate period.

IYF +4.83%
XLF +4.44
VFH +5.21
...BHB..... um... +18%. Glad for it. But what's their secret sauce?

Here's some info regarding the use of ImgBB, as referred to above by Yogi. It's a screen capture of an account at ImgBB, showing the steps necessary to transfer an image from ImgBB to MFO.

Use of ImgBB is free for smaller personal accounts.