Hunch: I'm expecting nothing in the way of cuts until 2025.

Hmm, I would be very surprised! The FED was very late on addressing interest rates to curb inflation. But now it would be an even bigger mistake keeping them high for an extended period.

Hunch: I'm expecting nothing in the way of cuts until 2025.

That would not surprise me.

Hunch: I'm expecting nothing in the way of cuts until 2025.

some good & reassuring insights never expressed before, but i felt morningstar missed a key question :
'with all partners taking a similar GARP selection approach, how will primecap execute risk-weighted concentrated investing in a new era (interest rates ending a 3+ decade decline) ?'
a partial response was that primecap spends more time on sell decisions.
this is an interesting question, because it also affects other very good active GARP equity managers like Giroux at T.Rowe Price (who adjusts some with other assets). the most successful GARP investors succeeded by holding even when the stocks looked overvalued and far past the initial buying range, which got turbocharged in a multi-generational interest rate decline.
https://the-long-view.simplecast.com/episodes/joel-fried-and-al-mordecai-upholding-the-culture-at-primecap-management-XJ2EmBIv
or download
https://cdn.simplecast.com/audio/df59cda3-c121-40eb-b58b-b6205c3ab64a/episodes/03d0879d-2fe7-46fb-92c5-7b173b1efa3a/audio/d32db191-5317-478a-967b-98e4acd17fe7/default_tc.mp3?aid=embed
(have not added to any primecap funds in 3 years, but their success still makes them by far my largest equity fund manager)

Is today’s market rational and so relies on the Magnificent Seven stocks ? Equal weight RSP, lagged S&P 500 by a wide margin last several years. Will the tide turn this year but I hope so?
@Art, NDNA NVDA, NVIDIA is one of the Magnificent Seven stock. At least you did not pick TSLA.

The following is a heavily edited extract from a current NPR report:
Diana Choyleva is a senior fellow on China's economy at the Asia Society. She and others see the potential for deflation ahead as the Chinese economy struggles with a number of issues going forward. In November, consumer prices in China fell at their fastest rate in three years.
China "should be on American's radar because, first of all, China is a huge economy," Choyleva says. "If China is having severe deflation at home, pretty much the only choice left would be [for it] to export deflation."
At first glance, that would seem to benefit consumers buying Chinese-made goods. Instead, it's more likely to mean that U.S.-based competitors will need to lower their prices to compete with a flood of ever-cheaper Chinese products.
"That translates into businesses closing, jobs being lost and consumers being worse off," Choyleva says.
Dexter Roberts, director of China affairs at the Mansfield Center at the University of Montana sees similar concerns. The U.S. and China, he says, "are deeply entwined," and most top U.S. multinationals "secure a significant portion of their revenues and profits from the China market or their supply chains start there."
Meanwhile, China is pumping money into manufacturing to try to offset its slowing economy.
"Ultimately, [China] is going to be producing a lot of goods that they need to sell somewhere, and they're going to be selling them on the cheap. So I would imagine [that] could be a deflationary force."

Note: Text emphasis was added

after searching the forum and emailing charles, i have a long-needed ?\request for mfopremium search :
would like to someday sort funds based on whether the underlying earnings (and\or any profit metrics) are %foreign vs %u.s. (e.g., 3,5,10yr periods).
[am guessing the raw data needed may not be there for charles]
many large and mega cap funds seem classified based on HQ locale, not actual business dealings ! this seems worthless given peak globalization +/- 10 yrs, and probably even long after.
another unrelated question for all :
is there any recent reference for Enterprise Value stats (mean,median,...) for equity funds & ETFs per standard fund Category and industry classifications? the narrower, the better. (e.g., what is the median EV for specialty chemicals equity, or for holdings in a Foreign Small Blend ETF, etc..)

Look at equal-weight funds - SP500 RSP, tech RSPT, energy RSPG, Nasdaq 100 QQEW, etc.
There are equal-weight versions of most sector ETFs.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1097/thread

”Much of last year’s 26% gain in the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund was due to the stellar performance of the Magnificent Seven —the mostly tech-stock behemoths that are the index’s biggest holdings. … " (taken from @hank post above)
That concerns me as well at this time inasmuch as 30% of the S&P's valuation is in just those 7 stocks. Seems nuts! Or at least due for a correction at some point but I don't know when.
Anyway it has caused me to look at other stocks outside those 7 and in the past 2 weeks I have picked up shares of some out-of-favor blue chips that have been hard-kicked to the curb recently (ADM, MMM & PFE). They will remain on short leashes for the foreseeable future.
Otherwise I continue to look for opportunities in different ETF's I currently own. All seem to be hanging around their 52-wk highs and I'm not confident enough to think that they will continue to go higher.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/beta-isnt-dead
My comments from Twitter LINK
Interesting take on #Beta.
Significance of early work on #MPT was its application of #Statistics to investments. Slope ("beta") & intercept ("alpha) of #LinearRegression were already ancient concepts then.
Now they are commonly available tools. #Morningstar won't exist without such tools.
Sharpe's claim to fame is the #SharpeRatio that interestingly doesn't depend on MPT - #StandardDeviation can be found directly (& is more stable than beta).

The "king" of bonds, Gundlach, and other "experts" made bad predictions about rates and why I don't invest based on predictions and hope.
I own funds that have done well lately.
BTW, the Fed controls the short term rate, but markets control the longer term.
The 10 year may be at 3.5-4% for the next 6 months and that's not a big decrease.

The Week in Charts (01/28/24)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:17 What Tends to Follow All-Time Highs?
05:15 Will Small Caps Have Their Day in the Sun?
10:28 New Member of the Trillion Dollar Club
17:17 Tesla and Mr. Market
24:40 Netflix Comeback
27:32 King Morgan
29:08 Homebuilder Adaptation
32:14 Expansion Continues
37:23 China's Plunge Protection?
41:21 Money Supply Reversal
43:11 Cooling Inflation
Video
Blog

That such a fund existed is proof that there are far too many ETFs available. Good riddance.

”There’s a sucker born …
But - ISTM Cramer got the last laugh here. The fund has lost 15% from inception.

”Much of last year’s 26% gain in the SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund was due to the stellar performance of the Magnificent Seven —the mostly tech-stock behemoths that are the index’s biggest holdings. … Equal-weight strategies take a democratic view of the market, giving equal weight to each component. Reshuffling the S&P 500 that way relegates each company to a 0.2% slice of the index, tilting it to value-oriented and mid-to-smaller-cap stocks and away from large-cap growth.”
Excerpt from Barron’s / January 29
Article by Debbie Carlson
Barron’s - Current Issue (Subscription may be required, but give link a try.)

Hard to see why the Fed would cut rates if the economy continues to perk along. If they're cutting rates methinks it would be because of a nasty landing.
Long article that confirms my bias opinion at the link. ;)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1005020/000093041324000384/c107865_497.htm
Virtus Vontobel Foreign Opportunities Fund and
Virtus Vontobel Global Opportunities Fund
497 1 c107865_497.htm
Virtus Vontobel Foreign Opportunities Fund and
Virtus Vontobel Global Opportunities Fund (the “Funds”),
each a series of Virtus Opportunities Trust
Supplement dated January 29, 2024, to the Summary Prospectus and
the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
pertaining to the Funds, each dated January 29, 2024
IMPORTANT NOTICE TO INVESTORS
As previously announced, the Board of Trustees of Virtus Opportunities Trust approved the merger of Virtus Vontobel Foreign Opportunities Fund with and into Virtus SGA International Growth Fund, a series of Virtus Asset Trust, and approved the merger of Virtus Vontobel Global Opportunities Fund with and into Virtus SGA Global Growth Fund, a series of Virtus Equity Trust, on or about March 8, 2024. At that time, neither the Funds’ Summary Prospectuses, nor references to the Funds in the Virtus Opportunities Trust Statutory Prospectus and SAI will be valid. Shareholders should consult the prospectuses for the Virtus SGA International Growth Fund and Virtus SGA Global Growth Fund for information about those funds.
Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and
Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
VOT 8020/Vontobel Mergers (1/24)

The Nov-Dec huge performance is over.
YTD is what counts now. My "gamble" right now is on funds with low SD + bigger yield, think 8+%, and excellent performance YTD.
There are 4 funds on my short list, I own 2.
https://schrts.co/TeIaWmPu
Definitely not PIMIX and its higher SD and lower yield. I used to own PIMIX at 50+% for years until 01/2018. The magic has been gone since then. For investors who hold, I prefer RCTIX.

@Crash. We all know you are into your PSTL but according to Portfolio Visualizer it has a CAGR of 1.65 % 1/20 thru 12/23. It also has a higher standard dev than the S&P 500 as well as a higher Max Drawdown. What’s the attraction?

I confess that I never have used a portfolio visualizer. As for the CAGR: that is definitely food for thought. It shows a stinky poopy RoR, true. I must chew and digest your remark. But we are close enough to the next dividend so that I don't want to bail on it right away. You do indeed leave me doubting whether I should remain invested in PSTL. And yet, I look at the numbers and the stars on Stock Rover, and it looks like a great prospect. The P/E is not the best metric to look at when it comes to Real Estate. Thank you. :)
I chose it just to have some R.E. in the portfolio.

@Crash. We all know you are into your PSTL but according to Portfolio Visualizer it has a CAGR of 1.65 % 1/20 thru 12/23. It also has a higher standard dev than the S&P 500 as well as a higher Max Drawdown. What’s the attraction?