I started a huge position several months ago in CBYYX and emailed someone on this thread. Finder did an excellent job presenting this data already. I found https://www.artemis.bm/ as well and used it as my guide. On that site, you can find an explanation of most of the holdings. Example: Stabilitas is CBYYX biggest holding see this=https://www.artemis.bm/deal-directory/stabilitas-re-ltd-series-2023-1/
There were 2 other great funds I found and I have played with 2 out of 3.
There is no fun in posting about bonds, trades, and what I see anymore because of several posters as I have done for years. For more see (link).
Example from 2020 (https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2). You can see when I sold and bought.
Never in my life, have I bought CDs or treasuries because trading bond funds is a lot better and this year it was great too.
BTW, trading HY munis funds since 2022 made me a lot of money. I also explained how I did it (hint: a simple T/A is one of my major signals).
As usual, a trader always sits by the exit because market conditions keep changing.

@sma3 (Dr) knows the best. But if you take Paxlovid, be ready for the worst mouth-taste. But it would be only for 5 days.

Franklin Templeton Funds
Undated dollars/share range estimates (as opposed to % NAV) for 2023 are presented on the individual fund pages under "Distributions&Tax".
These are significantly different from the cap gains estimate table (in percentages) given above. I can't say which is better.
For example, for FRAAX, the table estimate (9/29/23) is 0% STG, 8.4% LTG. The price/share then was $47.37, so this works out to $3.98/share LTG. (Even at the current price of $52.52, that's "just" $4.41/share.)
But the fund page gives much higher estimates per share of:
$5.725-$6.297 (LTG) plus $0.043 - $0.053 (STG).
https://www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/mutual-funds/products/4462/Z/franklin-growth-opportunities-fund/FRAAX#distributions
List of family funds is here (search by ticker is simple):
https://www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/mutual-funds

Thank you for bringing that old post up, @hank. I certainly remember being attacked in that thread for having and opinion that bond funds may be ready to come back and have a good year and future, and that maybe CDs weren't the only investment option available, though still acknowledging at the time they were still a nice option. Even my beloved Bills were attacked :)

Well, the name of the thread sounded so innocent - ”Anybody Investing in Bond Funds?” Didn’t seem like a combative topic. But the thread soon turned into more of an “ambush” than a rational discussion of bonds / bond funds You’d need to be closeted away (maybe on Mars?) not to know how badly bond funds performed in ‘22. It takes a much longer term focus to really understand bonds / bond funds and how they work in the context of a diversified portfolio. Cash provides a form instant gratification. The bank or issuer tells you exactly what you are going to get in turn for your investment. Tack that 5% CD up on the wall and forget about it. Few assets can match the appeal of cash for stability. Buy anything further out on the risk spectrum … be prepared to wait a while for your rewards,

Then the managers are eating their own cooking.
But how many mangers own NO shares in the fund they manage? almost all of them.

"It smells". Their cooking smells pretty good to me ...
Aggregate Dollar Range of Securities in the Fund as of Dec 31, 2022
U.S. Equity Investment Committee (D&C Stock Fund)
David C. Hoeft >$1M
Steven C. Voorhis >$1M
Philippe Barret, Jr. >$1M
Kathleen G. McCarthy >$1M
Karol Marcin >$1M
Benjamin V. Garosi >$1M
Karim Fakhry >$1M
Global Equity Investment Committee (D&C Global Stock Fund)
David C. Hoeft >$1M
Roger G. Kuo >$1M
Steven C. Voorhis >$1M
Karol Marcin >$1M
Lily S. Beischer >$1M
Raymond J. Mertens >$1M
International Equity Investment Committee (D&C International Stock Fund)
Roger G. Kuo >$1M
Mario C. DiPrisco >$1M
Keiko Horkan >$1M
Englebert T. Bangayan >$1M
Raymond J. Mertens >$1M
Paritosh Somani >$1M
Emerging Markets Equity Investment Committee (D&C Emerging Markets Stock Fund)
David C. Hoeft >$1M
Mario C. DiPrisco >$1M
Sophie Chen >$1M
Rameez Dossa >$1M
Robert S. Turley $100K - $500K
Balanced Investment Committee (D&C Balanced Fund)
Philippe Barret, Jr. >$1M
Benjamin V. Garosi >$1M
David C. Hoeft >$1M
Lucinda I. Johns >$1M
Thomas Y. Powers >$1M
Matthew B. Schefer >$1M
Robert S. Turley >$1M
U.S. Fixed Income Investment Committee (D&C Income Fund)
Dana M. Emery >$1M
Thomas S. Dugan >$1M
James H. Dignan >$1M
Anthony J. Brekke >$1M
Adam S. Rubinson >$1M
Lucinda I. Johns >$1M
Michael Kiedel >$1M
Nils M. Reuter >$1M
Global Fixed Income Investment Committee (D&C Global Bond Fund)
Dana M. Emery >$1M
James H. Dignan >$1M
Adam S. Rubinson >$1M
Lucinda I. Johns >$1M
Matthew B. Schefer >$1M
Jose F. Ursua* >$1M
Mimi Yang $500K - $1M
* holdings as of 1/31/23
SAI dated May 1, 2023, supplemented June 6, 2023
https://www.dodgeandcox.com/content/dam/dc/us/en/pdf/disclosures/dc_statement_of_additional_information.pdf

At what moment? He never said that there would be an imminent collapse, which is what I wrote would have IMHO a hack prediction. Even then, just a hack prediction, not necessarily the writing of a hack. What he demonstrated was that admissions of error are difficult to make; that's not bias.
Hacks often start with preconceived notions, cherry pick data, and disregard what that data represents or even the data itself. There's a difference between a well reasoned position piece and a hack writing.

House are about 30% more expensive (https://www.atlantafed.org/center-for-housing-and-policy/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor)

There's an old saying that a house is not a home. The Fed presents data on its Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. It includes "all single-family attached and detached properties combined" (quote is from the Fed site). Nowhere does the Fed use the word "house".
No time frame appears in the quote above for the 30% figure. But since a second source (Bloomberg) is offered, and that source uses time frames including Jan 2020 - Oct 2023 and Q1 2020 - Q3 2023, we can work with that.
The Fed site actually says that median existing home repeat sale prices rose from $264.00K in Jan 2020 to $374.167K in Sept 2023 (a 41.7% increase). This isn't close to 30%. The point here is not whether the actual number is greater or less than 30%. Rather it is that giving "supporting" sources that actually conflict with one's asserted numbers is something hacks do.
---------
It was suggested that the ones hurt by this 30% increase in prices (presumably since Jan 2020) are largely first-time house (sigh) buyers. Instead of relying on shock value (another hack ploy) and disregarding counterbalancing income increases, let's compare the increases in costs and income.
"The typical age of a first-time homebuyer is 33 years old"
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/first-time-homebuyer-statistics/
Average wages rise (inflation, productivity, etc.). We've already seen that the increase in wages over this period is around 20%. So a typical individual worker aged 33 received a nominal wage 20% higher in 2023 than a typical individual worker aged 33 back in 2020. (We can use age-specific percentage increases instead if you have them.)
Now, independent of market wage increases (the 20%), individual workers' wages increase as they age - due to promotions, due to more experienced workers receiving higher wages generally. (Though above age 60, wages often decline with age.)
Let's take this step by step, starting with a typical wage earner, age 30 in 2020. That worker earned about $40,540. We know this because when we increase by 20% (the national average increase in wages since 2020), we get a typical wage of $48,650. That happens to be the typical wage earned by a 30 year old in 2023.
https://dqydj.com/average-median-top-income-by-age-percentiles/
Since 2020 this typical worker has aged three years and is now receiving the wages of a typical 33 year old: $52,650. So in nominal terms this worker's wages have increased about 29.9%, the same as housing costs have increased.
IOW, despite the increase in existing housing costs, this typical worker is no worse off than he was three years ago with respect to housing.
The age factor is something often missed in analyses. It's true that a 33 year old today is less likely to afford a home than a 33 year old three years ago. Hence statistics like the Home Opportunity Affordability Monitor show a declining rate of affordability.
But at the level of the individual, the situation is better. As people age, they are supposed to be able to afford more. Right now, they can't afford more housing than they could three years ago, but neither are they stuck affording less.
As a nation, housing costs have risen bigly. That takes some of the bloom off "the American dream". But at the individual level, people are better off with respect to some purchases and not worse off with respect to first time home buying.
Old age is a different story. To the extent that people rely on savings (as opposed to inflation-adjusted Social Security), rising housing costs (including rent, property taxes, maintenance, etc.) are not a pretty sight. And not just recently. It's a mistake to assume that people who own their homes are in good shape.

As the largest expenditure in most older households’ budgets, housing costs figure heavily into financial security in older age. Incomes decline in older age, and not just at the point of retirement: while the 2017 median income of pre-retirement households ages 50 to 64 was $71,400, it was $46,500 for households ages 65 to 79 and just $29,000 for households ages 80 and older, according to analysis of data from the American Community Survey; and author tabulations. While these numbers show a pattern across all older households, individual households frequently see declines in incomes as they age [the opposite of what happens with first-time buyers]. As a result, affordability concerns can emerge as a new problem even for those in their 80s and older.

https://generations.asaging.org/older-adults-aging-place-affordable-safe

Junkster, I am ashamed that I missed SHRIX; it is phenomenal. Somehow, it did not appear in any databases that I searched, and it is not available at Fidelity, and Vanguard. Their prospectus says that it is sold only to institutional investors with a minimum of $25M, but one can buy it at Schwab at $5M minimum. Too bad...
The outstanding behavior of CAT funds is not something one may count on going forward. One of the reasons for their outperformance is that they are also floating rate, and this is the year they shine (or shined). The second reason is that a large part of their return is due to hurricane-related insurance, and this year, we were lucky that the related losses were less than expected. In addition, the risk premium is high, and it may continue to grow.
The performance of the CAT bonds since 2011 can be found here:
https://www.artemis.bm/catastrophe-bond-fund-indices/

Sectors that have been close to moribund have attracted buyers. Totally anecdotal, because I’m no expert. Nonetheless, healthcare has moved up, and two of the four « final trades » on MSNBC at noon today were in health. My position in GSK no longer feels like an ulcer. All the SC ETFs I track seem to have been administered some sort of upper, reminding me of Oliver Sacks and the film « Awakenings. » SCHW went a bit nuts today and so did KRE, so the financial sector may be participating. Real estate is showing up green instead of red. Makes a guy scratch his head.

People have stopped listening to Powell about rate cuts. Or they have decided that 5.25% is not the end of the world.
If this keeps up, I might be able to get myself out of some of the silly stuff I got my IRA into in November 2021. Oy.

The graphic is set for the 5 days ending December 1, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
Remain curious,
Catch

Bond funds EMPIX and CBYYX discussed by Junkster are very interesting and impressive indeed. They invest in catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds). These two funds are pretty new. Both funds are 11% up YTD, rising in an upward trend, which is even more steady than the familiar FR/BL funds often discussed here.
My understanding of these funds is rather limited, but one can find lots of related information at https://www.artemis.bm, see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_bond and https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/405#:~:text=a catastrophe bond.-,A CAT bond is a security that pays the issuer,(on%20the%20Richter%20scale).
The basic idea is that there is a growing number of catastrophic events now, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, forest fires, and cyberattacks. When the scale of such events goes beyond some limit, the insurance companies may fail. CAT bonds are issued to provide a secondary layer of protection. Because of the risks involved, the yields are high.
There are only two such funds in the USA, EMPIX and CBYYX, but there are many closely related UCITS catastrophe bond funds outside of the USA. They have a similarly impressive performance this year, see https://www.artemis.bm/catastrophe-bond-fund-indices/
However, during the last month, these funds have been slowing down. Today is the first day when both of these funds have lost about 0.1%. Thus, the seductive figures showing these funds' beautiful performance in 2023 might be misleading. But one aspect of these funds makes them interesting regardless of their recent performance: The magnitude of the catastrophic events is almost entirely uncorrelated with the stock market, so these bonds may provide significant diversification benefits. Thus, as Junkster said, it would be great if somebody at MFO commented on it or wrote an article about CAT bonds.

I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.

Well, you seem to be (read, "are") picking on me with those quotes, so here's my reply.
Great. Maybe LT bond holders will continue to see massive upswings to continue to recoup their heavy losses over the past years. (Maybe not?) To wit, the vast majority of taxable bonds do NOT have 5-yr TRs equaling 5% yet.
And we'll see how long the bond party lasts, eh? Talk to me in 5 years after our CP CD ladder made us 5+% annually for that period, risk and worry free, allowing me to spend my investment time on stocks, where real money is made. To wit, with all of our stock funds UP 20%-65% this year, except one only UP ~9%, I really don't give a rat's arse what bond funds are doing. I don't want to and I don't have to! My FI money is instead parked in the 5+% CP rate lot where I don't have to waste otherwise quality investment time on it for years to come.

I recall fondly this excellent thread (from May 17) containing many diverse opinions. What stood out to me was the voracity with which the proponents of cash (rather than bonds) voiced their opinions. Not to imply they were wrong. Just that it’s been really rewarding for bond / bond fund investors the past couple weeks watching the turn around. Some memorable comments from this spring.
- ”I sold all of my bond funds in March of 2022. I have not bought any new bond funds since then, preferring Brokerage noncallable CDs and MMs. I have no plans on buying any new bond funds in the near future.”
- “+100”
- ”I’m with you.”
- ”So while bond fund investors over the next 5 years will be putting in time and effort trying to get their 4%-5% TRs, I'll be putting on a slew of golf courses, knowing that we have a 5+-yr CD ladder in place of those bond funds that is paying in excess of 5%.”
- “I look at MMs paying around 5%, CDs paying around 5.3%, and there is little to no risk there. As a retired person, I am fine with collecting 5+% for now.”
- ”As a retired person I am right with you! I am sleeping very well with little to no risk and I have NO FOMO”
- “Just bought two 12-months CDs from two large national banks with a quite satisfactory yield of 5.30%. I am not concerned about eking out a few extra basis points here or there in the future.”

Anecdotally, I can confirm your observation about junk corporates.
PRCPX in Nov. + 4.55%
TUHYX in Nov. +4.00%.
You're making too much sense! No arguments here.

Simply explosive action in bonds this November with the Bloomberg U S Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) seeing its best performance since May 1985. Digging deeper the rally was led by long duration with several funds in the Morningstar Long Government category seeing returns in the 14% to 15% range. My favorite category - Municipals - didn’t disappoint with returns in the long investment grade muni category exceeding 10% for some funds and outpacing the high yield munis category which saw returns in the 8% and 9% range. Other categories such as emerging market debt and corporate bonds saw smaller yet still out of the ordinary price gains. Funds that were concentrated in mortgage backed securities also shined. Surprisingly junk corporates lagged a bit with the Morningstar average coming in at *only* 3,99%. As expected with a rally based on expectations for lower long and short term rates the bank loan category pulled up the rear.
Prior to the explosive action in and around the November 1 Fed meeting, many bond investors and traders were camped out in some obscure but tightly trending bond funds such as EMPIX and CBYYX which were on pace for double digit returns. ( Someone at MFO needs to write an article about these co insurance bond funds) But their returns in November paled in comparison to most everything else in Bondville.
Below is where I begin to repeat myself - a trait I abhor so will put myself on a three month moderation (hiatus) after this thread runs its course.
As a trader or for that matter an investor, you have to believe that every rally is THE rally and play it as such. That way you never miss out when it actually is THE rally. Obviously so far the rally around the fireworks in and around November 1 has been THE rally. Seasonality is kicking in for municipal and junk corporates so we shall see if the rally has staying power. So much depends on the action in the 10 year Treasury. January of this year saw an impressive rally (albeit nowhere close to the current one) only to fade to nothing when the 10 year begin to lose ground again and the swoon in regional bank stocks.
My first bond trade ever was in January 1991 in junk bonds and as luck would have it ( and I am a big believer in the luck factor) it was a lock out trade. A lock out trade is when the market relentlessly rises day after day locking out those looking for some type of minor correction to enter. Shortly after my January entry in 1991 in junk bonds there was a period of 60 consecutive trading days with no down days. Somewhat akin to what is occurring now in municipal bond funds now with only one down day in November. Not a whole unlike what occurred in muni funds in January 2014 and which is detailed during that period in the archives here under my moniker. Lock out trades are rare and bullish going forward.
Now this humongous rally in bonds may be much ado about nothing and burn up in flames. That is where prudent money management comes into play and not allowing hard earned gains to evaporate into losses, But those waiting for certainty, the coast to clear, or for better times ahead will always be destined to be late to the party. Feeling comfortable is not a positive trait if you are a trader or investor, Risk is part of the game and many of the best trades and investments arise when we are the most uncomfortable.
I am sure I will get blowback on some of the above but to blunt that let me say I completely understand the current mindset of being safely tucked away in money markets and CDs earning over 5%.

Checking the stock investor's landscape:
Small Caps Rockin' the Casbah again today!
Equal weighted S&P outperformed yesterday.
The arguably best T/A poster on investment forums recently stated we could see S&P 5,500 by Turkey Day 2024.
All systems appear to be GO for US stock investors heading into the New Year!
"The crowd caught a whiff
Of that crazy Casbah jive"

Anytime we talk about CD rates we should always be sure to reference if they are CP or Not CP. BIG difference in the rates and Available Quantities, as well as the strategies/consequences of holding either.
FWIW, I rarely if ever post about Not CP CDs as I have ZERO interest in ever owning one in concert with my overall strategy on FI. All comments that follow are therefore related to brokered, CP CDs.
Brokered, CP rates for 3-yr to 5-yr CP CDs peaked at about 5.20% to 5.10% (based on my tracking, but they coulda inched a wee bit higher) respectively at two different times in 2023, several months ago and a coupla weeks ago.
They are now GONE and we are unlikely to see them again in this interest rate cycle. That said, the topic after all is interest rates, so the direction and magnitude of moves is always a roll of the dice.
Currently, the best brokered, CP rates (and Available Quantities) on Fido for these maturities are
3-yr: 4.65% (6,000)
4-yr: 4.60% (2,200)
5-yr: (None)
I suggested to investors here many months ago to try to NOT be short-sighted (and star struck) with the relatively higher rates on 3-months to 18-month CDs IF they were planning on creating a longer term CD ladder and/or wanted to take advantage of CD opportunities not seen for many prior years.
I suggested those 5+% CP longer term rates would disappear quickly and once they were gone, they would likely be gone for many years...again. Luckily, we all had two swipes at them as noted above. Some acted. Some did not. I acted and built our CD ladder out 5 years.
Those who didn't act are left with the types of questions posted by some of the most recent posters: What to do now?
Yeah, the drop in the 10-yr and CD rates SHOULD improve bond fund TRs BUT that's the rub: Do you want FDIC'd, CP, guaranteed rates of a CD ladder in the 5+% range, or do you want to roll the dice on bond funds, and IMO, basically the hope that you'll match the CD ladder TR? Plenty of worthy arguments on both sides but I will always choose the former based on my minimum FI hurdle and risk/reward considerations. Others had at least two opportunities this year to do the same but it appears they no longer will. So TMMV, and likely will.

Yep, CD rates are lower. It was just a few weeks ago that CD rates for many time periods were 5.5%. Longer term rates over 5% are disappearing. So, it does challenge investors with maturing CDs and ample amounts of cash, to determine where they want to invest with a downward trend in CDs. I will be wrestling with my options in December, as I have numerous CDs reaching maturity. 5% options for CDs are still attractive to me, but it is hard to predict how much longer they will exist.

Fido will now let you buy PRCFX, but with a $49.95 fee.

The price of food and gas is not the big problem because housings and total expense on vehicles is a much bigger portion of someone expenses. Buying a house in many cases it at least 50% more than 3-4 years ago because prices are 30% up + mortgage rates are more than doubled. That isn't a political view.
Krugman is a political hack. This is what he said
In 2016 https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

11/30/23, Thursday evening quote of $25.01 for PRCFX is at Yahoo Finance & CNBC. Not yet at other sites.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRCFX?p=PRCFX
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PRCFX
I did try a Schwab test order around 2:00 PM Central, but the ticker was NOT recognized (just like yesterday). It may take a few days for 3rd party NTF/TF setups.
I see that MFO now recognizes it.