Over, Under, Sideways, Down; February 27 - March 3, 2023The above is a song title of a Yardbirds song from 1966. Not about investing, but the words fit the current investing market place, eh?
How about the state of things at the moment, it's all over the place, so it's sort of over, under, sideways, down.
---Over.....over valued
---Under..... under valued
---Sideways.....just plain sideways in values
---Down.....prices down for equity and bonds, bad; down yields for bonds, good for bond pricing and borrowing needs, private and business
Other than these, everything is very clear in the investing world at this time :)
Parts still on back order for the Magic 8 ball....crap!
--- This list Feb. 20- 27 (most current for a full week) FUND FLOWS
Pretty much bond-land for this time frame.
Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) ...Ticker... Fund Name... Net In-Flows (millions)
SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF 3,146.28
BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF 1,841.76
SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 1,339.
54
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 943.49
SPTS SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF 83
5.62
JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF 69
5.99
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 68
5.80
GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF 626.00
JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF
526.29
SMLF iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Multifactor ETF 490.80
--- Friday, March 3.....ISM (Institute of Supply Management) services sector report is too 'hot' for the FED's liking. Too many folks still working. The number
50 is the base line, and the current number is
55.1, with an estimate of
54.
5; the highest since December, 2021. One suspects we may find another higher (.
5) Fed funds rate increase in our near future.
ISM services covers many areas of economic measurements. Read about them
here, if you're curious about the reports.
***Bonds were in a funk until Friday helped many sectors become happy for the week. The Real Yield thread at MFO may help with some of the current thinking. I remain with the thought that the 'pundits', if they're drinkers, would rather be throwing a few down at their favorite bar; as I'm convinced a lot of them don't know which darts to use for the board, either. I always keep in mind while watching yields that they only apply to our investing to a point, as I'm not buying individual bonds to hold for ten years or whatever time frame to obtain a full 4% rate. Our house watches the yields and how they are going to affect pricing, as we're buying the price, not the yield. Pension funds and related may be happy with long term holdings of bonds; but we retail investors for the most part, are buying bond mutual funds or bond etf's; and this is where pricing becomes most important, IMHO. NOTE: 'Hedge funds' also play big in the bond etf world. Yes, we may want to hold the fund or etf long term, but our goal is to buy 'low', right? Wouldn't it be nice to buy a fund with a sideways price and a yield of +6%; and just hold on, to support your income flows and balance one's equity holdings.
Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.
5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.
--- U.S.$ DOWN -.64% for the week, +1.18% YTD
(Big POP this week)*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
A good day to you.....
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---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 27 - March 3, 2023
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.
--- AGG = +.19% / +.58% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.02% / +1.15% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.02% / -.12% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.07% / -.49% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.05% / -.22% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +1.36% / +1.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.71% / +.81% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.72% / +.66% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +3.0% / +4.14% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +1.16% / +2.86% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +1.66% / +4.31% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +2.38% / +5.05% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -2.3% / -5.14% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +2.8% / +4.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.1% / +.57% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.66% / +1.37% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.96% / +3.92% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +1.35% / +2.6% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.1 %/+1.2% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.44% /+.36% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +.58%/+1.62% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.15% / +5.67% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +1.4% / +7.67% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch