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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Harris Associates sells remaining shares of Credit Suisse
    "Shares of Credit Suisse have erased about 95% of their value since the summer of 2007 after years of scandals and losses."
    You mean there was a towel left to throw in?
    With the exception of Mass Mutual Overseas fund (rated 3* or 4* depending on share class), all of the nine funds co-managed by Herro are rated 2* or 1*. Those include his flagship OAKIX and its clone NOIAX, both rated 1*.
    Still, M* analysts rate those two funds "gold". And "Morningstar named [Herro] International- Stock Fund Manager of the Year for 2006 and again for 2016, and also International- Stock Fund Manager of the Decade for 2000–09."
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/812708/10-questions-with-david-herro
    Continuing from that 2017 M* page:
    How do you handle the scrutiny that comes with being such a large shareholder in controversial names such as Credit Suisse CSGN: CH?
    You stay focused on doing what is best for your clients, which means pushing managements to stay focused on long-term value creation.
    Keeping your eye on the ball doesn't help when the ball keeps bouncing lower and lower.
  • another argument for an EM ex-China fund
    Mark Mobius, in a Fox News interview discussing in Fortune, claims that China doesn't want to let him move his money out of the country.
    Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, has been a longtime booster of Chinese equities, yet revealed why he’d changed his mind ...
    The investor revealed that he had funds trapped in an account with HSBC in Shanghai. “I can’t get my money out. The government is restricting the flow of money out of the country,” he said.
    Mobius continued that the Chinese government was “putting all kinds of barriers” in his way. “They don’t say, ‘No, you can’t get your money out,’ but they say, ‘Give us all the records from 20 years of how you’ve made this money,’ and so forth. It’s crazy.”
    We've written about both successful EM funds with low China exposure (2021) and funds that, by prospectus, exclude China (2023).
    By coincidence, China's premier stepped down yesterday after 10 years in office. His departure was described as "marking a shift away from the skilled technocrats who have helped steer the world’s second-biggest economy in favor of officials known mainly for their unquestioned loyalty" to Xi (AP, 3/5/23).
    Both of the Seafarer funds are China-light, about 9% weight against a peer average of 28%. My other EM fund, Grandeur Peak, is about 11% China.
    For what caution it suggests,
    David
  • MS Mike Wilson Flipping
    Wilson noted the gap between reported earnings and cash flow is the widest in 25 years, driven by excess inventory and capitalized costs that have yet to be reflected.
  • MS Mike Wilson Flipping
    He sees next resistance at 4150, about 2.5% higher than Friday's close.
    “We believe it does not refute the very poor risk reward currently offered by many stocks given valuations and earnings forecasts that remain way too high, in our view.”
    .
  • MS Mike Wilson Flipping
    Morgan Stanley's (MS) strategist Mike Wilson has been among the most bearish strategists. It is a tough life for bearish strategists on the Wall Street. Firms' sales teams can't make much money if their strategists are downright bearish. So, eventually, such analysts are either proven right, or are fired.
    This is why MS Mike Wilson has been in the news so much.
    But now he is flipping! He is still bearish but says that this rally has room to run, and then collapse.
    Twitter LINK cites Bloomberg but that is behind paywall.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Thanks, @Crash, I'd fogotten about RY this week. One of the guests made a pitch for shorter duration corporates barbelled with the 10y Treasury. Interesting, but not for moi when 6m and 1y Ts are paying 5%. If 2y or 3y Treasuries cross 5%, I'll be in with a lot more than spare change.
    Word up! :)
    I'm in (TIPs) SCHP. Duration average is 6.59. playing the middle, but leaning into longer durations.....12-month yield currently: 6.93%. Yes, a fund is not the same as actual Ts. :)
    Super-low ER, though. Brings another smile. :)
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Thanks, @Crash, I'd fogotten about RY this week. One of the guests made a pitch for shorter duration corporates barbelled with the 10y Treasury. Interesting, but not for moi when 6m and 1y Ts are paying 5%. If 2y or 3y Treasuries cross 5%, I'll be in with a lot more than spare change.
  • Tis the season, Foreign tax credit
    Obscure foreign tax credit gotcha:
    Taking a credit usually is more advantageous, but to qualify you must have held your shares in a fund for at least 16 days of the 31-day period starting 15 days before the ex-dividend date of the fund. For additional information, refer to IRS Publication 514, Foreign Tax Credit for Individuals, and the Instructions for Form 1116, Foreign Tax Credit (Individual, Estate, or Trust).
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/fund-specific/reporting-for-foreign-taxes-paid.html
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    Wife drags me out! Before my hip acted up I could do 5. Hips are a lot easier to deal with then knees!
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    +1 sma3 Good job on walking 3 miles a day! I walk about 1 or 1.5 miles a day at a variety of parks in the area but I'm afraid 3 miles a day might aggravate my knee problems.
  • Barron's and ESG
    Barron's has hit a double ( two weeks) ESG covers
    Two weeks ago it was plastic waste and recycling
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheap-new-plastic-choking-the-world-9b318936?mod=past_editions
    This week Agriculture and fertilizer emphasizing new technology to deal with drought and changing climate.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-farmers-deere-agco-stocks-c4ca8e8c?mod=past_editions
    Unfortunately, neither is as precise and insightful as they could have been, with only few investment ideas.
    But it does show how the financial press is still thinking about pollution, climate change and ESG
    And "100 best Sustainable Companies" in this week's edition.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-sustainable-esg-us-companies-1b5f70fd?mod=past_editions
    They point out that "The top 100 returned an average negative 9.5% in 2022 versus negative 18.1% for the S&P 500 index. Moreover, 63% outperformed the index, up from 47% in 2021. "
    I would hope this message gets around and will convince our lawmakers to stay out of investment decisions or their constituents will suffer.
    Apologies to anyone who can't open the articles. Who knows how to post the entire article?
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    The search page linked below might pull it up. Top of list.
    Google
    (My Hulu TV records it automatically)
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Over, Under, Sideways, Down; February 27 - March 3, 2023
    The above is a song title of a Yardbirds song from 1966. Not about investing, but the words fit the current investing market place, eh?
    How about the state of things at the moment, it's all over the place, so it's sort of over, under, sideways, down.
    ---Over.....over valued
    ---Under..... under valued
    ---Sideways.....just plain sideways in values
    ---Down.....prices down for equity and bonds, bad; down yields for bonds, good for bond pricing and borrowing needs, private and business
    Other than these, everything is very clear in the investing world at this time :)
    Parts still on back order for the Magic 8 ball....crap!
    --- This list Feb. 20- 27 (most current for a full week) FUND FLOWS
    Pretty much bond-land for this time frame.
    Top 10 Creations (All ETFs) ...Ticker... Fund Name... Net In-Flows (millions)
    SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF 3,146.28
    BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF 1,841.76
    SGOV iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF 1,339.54
    BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 943.49
    SPTS SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF 835.62
    JPST JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF 695.99
    TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 685.80
    GBIL Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF 626.00
    JEPI JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF 526.29
    SMLF iShares MSCI USA Small-Cap Multifactor ETF 490.80
    --- Friday, March 3.....ISM (Institute of Supply Management) services sector report is too 'hot' for the FED's liking. Too many folks still working. The number 50 is the base line, and the current number is 55.1, with an estimate of 54.5; the highest since December, 2021. One suspects we may find another higher (.5) Fed funds rate increase in our near future.
    ISM services covers many areas of economic measurements. Read about them here, if you're curious about the reports.
    ***Bonds were in a funk until Friday helped many sectors become happy for the week. The Real Yield thread at MFO may help with some of the current thinking. I remain with the thought that the 'pundits', if they're drinkers, would rather be throwing a few down at their favorite bar; as I'm convinced a lot of them don't know which darts to use for the board, either. I always keep in mind while watching yields that they only apply to our investing to a point, as I'm not buying individual bonds to hold for ten years or whatever time frame to obtain a full 4% rate. Our house watches the yields and how they are going to affect pricing, as we're buying the price, not the yield. Pension funds and related may be happy with long term holdings of bonds; but we retail investors for the most part, are buying bond mutual funds or bond etf's; and this is where pricing becomes most important, IMHO. NOTE: 'Hedge funds' also play big in the bond etf world. Yes, we may want to hold the fund or etf long term, but our goal is to buy 'low', right? Wouldn't it be nice to buy a fund with a sideways price and a yield of +6%; and just hold on, to support your income flows and balance one's equity holdings.
    Those MMKT's. Stagnant yields again this week, as they've hit a plateau; but most still having a yield between 4.2 and 4.5%, unless it's a magic sauce MMKT. Perhaps another bump up in yields when the FED raises rates again.
    --- U.S.$ DOWN -.64% for the week, +1.18% YTD (Big POP this week)
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 27 - March 3, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 4.46% (flat lined now). The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.22%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time. *** These rates have now mostly flat lined for two weeks.
    --- AGG = +.19% / +.58% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.02% / +1.15% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.02% / -.12% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.07% / -.49% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.05% / -.22% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.36% / +1.48% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.71% / +.81% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.72% / +.66% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +3.0% / +4.14% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.16% / +2.86% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +1.66% / +4.31% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.38% / +5.05% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -2.3% / -5.14% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +2.8% / +4.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.1% / +.57% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = +.66% / +1.37% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.96% / +3.92% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +1.35% / +2.6% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.1 %/+1.2% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.44% /+.36% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.58%/+1.62% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +1.15% / +5.67% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +1.4% / +7.67% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.46% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    VIX is a way to assess the short-term volatility of SP500. It is imperfect because its current and real-time measurements differ from the historically realized volatilities. VIX cannot be traded directly, but only through VIX futures. There are several futures-based VIX ETFs. There are also "VIX" for other markets.
    https://etfdb.com/index/sp-500-vix-short-term-futures-tr/
  • MFO March 1, 2023 Commentary!
    Is the March 1 issue delayed?
    I also see that @David_Snowball last logged in on 2/25/23. I hope that everything is OK.
  • Or does this belong under "fund discussions?" GQG/Adani
    Physical ailments: sorry to hear about that. In 2021, after surgery, doc told me: "Yes, I removed what was left of your L-5 disc. So much pain for so many years. Now, quite a bit less. So, you use PT. i found it to be quite useless. Best wishes to you as we ALL grow older.
  • Pimco Multisector Bond ETF PYLD
    M* Ptak noted this new filing in a Twitter LINK that seems similar in description to PIMIX but it isn't stated explicitly. ER is missing too.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1450011/000119312523058554/d471085d485apos.htm
  • Crypto Crash. 11/8/22
    Silvergate/SI is an FDIC insured bank
    That’s interesting. One of the Fed “open-mouth committee” members seemed to hint at a rate hike pause yesterday (for later this year). Strange talk I thought based on past Fed rhetoric. Was scratching my head trying to figure out what possible scent in the wind might have gotten their attention? Banks possibly? Elsewhere, I read today that one recent problems facing crypto banks is the high rate of interest now available to mom & pop investors thru T-Bills, money market funds, etc. so that people are somewhat less inclined to play around with crypto. I don’t mean to cry “wolf” here or anything like that. Just find all this a bit interesting.
    BTW -The VIX fell over 5% today and at 18.49 sits just above its 12-month low. And it’s down nearly 50% over the past 12-months. From that, can we conclude there’s not a lot of fear in the markets?
  • RPHYX/RPHIX
    The StockCharts bar represents trading days, e.g. 30 days ending March 1 starts on January 18th.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?RPHYX&n=30&O=011000
    "The box that moves from side to side inside the slider area is called the 'thumb,' which displays the number of trading days represented on the chart."
    https://support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=other-tools:perfcharts
    Assuming compounding and 252 trading days per year, the 30 day figure would annualize to:
    10 ^ [log (1 + 0.0041) * (252/30)] - 1 = 3.50% (or more simply, 0.41% x 252/30 = 3.44%)
    The 180 day figure would annualize to:
    10 ^ [log (1 + .033) * (252/180)] - 1 = 4.65% (or more simply, 3.3% x 252/180 = 4.62%)
    Normally I would look back at least this far. But since rates have risen significantly in the past several months and speculation is that they won't rise as fast over the next few months, I would look more closely at the past 1-3 months. I would then fudge the result, increasing it somewhat since slower rate increases means less share price decline.
    (Fudging is just another way of saying that Feb is not representative because of rapidly rising rates as suggested by some daily declines in share price.)