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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Intl vs Domestic, Stocks vs Bonds: Barbara Reinhard, Voya Mgmt Head of Allocations
    I saw this interview last week on Bloomberg Surveillance, and thought that Ms. Reinhard discussed several key points as to the balance of 2023 and 2024. She appears to have been a guest on this network several times since.
    Her appearance starts at the 55:00 mark.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-02-10/-bloomberg-surveillance-simulcast-02-10-2023
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    NHYDY refuses to fall far enough to make me happy with my Limit Order. Just canceled. Bought a few shares in PSTL, instead. Then where did it go, after the order was executed? Down further, of course! Growl.
    down -1.12% on the day. Market just closed for the long week-end.
    down -2.77% over 5 days.
    down -1.67% over 3 months.
    YTD: +5.57%
    1 year: down -12.04%
    5 years: down -6.76%
    Why own this booger? It's the P.O. I think the divs are in the bag. I've been looking to find all the stoopid statistics and analysts' opinions on the stock, lately. Positive outlook, even if the target-price isn't much higher than where it is at the moment. Good market reaction to recent Earnings Report.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    @derf. @hank
    Hello! Am I batting .500?
    I first put some money into single stocks back in the '90s. It was PG&E. Biggest utility in the country. Utilities are safe, right? Boom. The whole Erin Brokovitch stuff blew up in my face, and it was discovered that all those people down in Kern County (?) had been poisoned and were suffering from cancer because PG&E is a suck-hole company. There were also other incidents. A manhole cover blew out of its position from an explosion under the street in S.F. Someone else was injured seriously. And more.
    Crud. So, that outfit is on my shit-list.
    Only in 2021 did I begin again to dabble in single-stocks. Got my ass handed to me, via RGR and ENIC. No more of THAT.
    At last, I have made up the loss, plus a bit more, by now. I've learned to do better homework, make better decisions, I hope. I've held the same five (5) single-stocks in my new stable for the duration, since I once again started over.
    TRP lists them this way for me, in terms of "Personal Rate Of Return:" as of 17 Feb, '23:
    In the black:
    NHYDY
    ET
    JRSH (on fire lately. But a tiny investment.)
    BHB
    *******
    In the red:
    PSTL
    HYDB (ETF)
    SCHP (ETF)
    Diversified by industry as far as my budget will let me, too. That's deliberate.
    Hang in there! I'm happy today, despite the cruddy weather and the puke-ish Markets. I have opera tix for tonight!
    Best mutual fund for me, still: PRWCX.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    It seems to me about 70% of the time when I sell something it comes back to life.
    Frustrating, isn’t it? I’ve had 2 or 3 like that the past 3 or 4 months. One stock I bought on a Barron’s recommendation in the fall only to watch it decline more than 6% a couple days later (all in 1 day). “Who needs this?” I asked - and ditched the *#!##. Well now it’s gained 10-15% above the initial purchase price and tends to rise on days when the market goes down. Of course I regret the knee-jerk reaction to sell it.
    There’s a couple things at work, here, however. First, who would have foreseen in November the impressive jump in the equity markets over the past 2-3 months? I sure didn’t. So just about anything you ditched 2-3 months ago is now much higher. But, those kinds of bets might just as easily have gone the other way - unless you have a very good crystal ball. The second factor is that those kinds of spec plays command a relatively small dollar investment. Who’s going to bet the farm (or even a sizable amount) all at once on what amounts to a speculative investment? Why is that important? Because even after an impressive % gain, the actual dollar gain from such a small investment months out is likely to be relatively small. What all this argues for, I think, is mostly larger investments in a limited stable of proven reliable holdings. Less exciting, but a lot more predictable. (Less stressful as well).
  • WPG Partners Small/Micro Cap Value Fund to change name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000139834423003678/fp0082357-1_497.htm
    THE RBB FUND, INC.
    Boston Partners Investment Funds
    WPG Partners Small/Micro Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Class (WPGTX)
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated December 31, 2022
    ______________________________________________________________________
    This supplement serves as notification of the following change:
    At a recent meeting of the Board of Directors (“Board”) of The RBB Fund, Inc., the Board approved certain changes as described below:
    1. Change in the Name of the Fund
    Effective as of February 17, 2023, the name of the Fund is being changed to the “WPG Partners Small Cap Value Diversified Fund”. The investment objective and the investment strategies of the Fund are not being changed in connection with the name change for the Fund and the current portfolio managers will continue to manage the Fund subject to the current investment objective and investment strategies that they employ with respect to their management of the Fund.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
  • JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund is open to everyone
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312523041854/d449622d497.htm
    J.P. MORGAN U.S. EQUITY FUNDS
    JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    (a series of JPMorgan Trust I)
    (All Share Classes)
    Supplement dated February 17, 2023
    to the current Prospectuses, as supplemented
    As previously supplemented on February 9, 2023, effective February 17, 2023, the Fund will no longer be subject to a limited offering, and all limited offering disclosure relating to the Fund will be deleted.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT WITH THE
    PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-HE-223-2
    The fund was last closed March 12, 2021.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1217286/000119312521045281/d119465d497.htm
  • Problems with Model Portfolios
    Why model portfolios won’t help you to succeed in the stock market.

    February 14, 2016
    |by Pat McKeough
    1978, 1998, 2007, 2016 or 2023...............a model is a model. Everyone has a 'model' in their head, dependent upon one's financial goals and means to arrive at that goal. The assumption of an 'investing model' of being only the stock market is 'strange'. Market investments are models of some form.
    VWINX operated by Vanguard/Wellesley is a model for a conservative investment.
    Not including taxes and inflation since its inception in 1970, the fund has a 15 year return of 6.30% and a lifetime return of 9.30%.
    @Alban Maintain reading and studying, remain curious to help with learning. All of us here are 'still' learning. As with your post, continue to ask the proper question in hopes of finding a proper answer.
    --- Strictly my opinions, of course.
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    Thanks all for the above insights!
    Kolanivak isn’t just another market pundit. As a spokesman for the investment arm of JPMorgan Chase he commands a very high stature. If size and financial influence of company or institution is considered, the advice might be seen to carry more weight and be of superior quality. One would expect advice from such a giant to move markets. Their advice feels incrementally different from that of smaller money managers like Charles Schwab, T. Rowe Price or Invesco.
    From Wikipedia: ”JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational financial services company … the largest bank in the United States and the world's largest bank by market capitalization. The firm is considered systemically important by the Financial Stability Board (which) has led to enhanced regulatory oversight …” (Wikipedia)
    Here’s an indication of the relative sizes of some financial institutions by market cap:
    J.P. Morgan Chase $418 Billion
    Bank of America $283 Billion
    Charles Schwab $150.77 Billion
    T Rowe Price $26.4 Billion
    Invesco $8.4 Billion
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    @Crash : Are you batting 500 ? It seems to me about 70% of the time when I sell something it comes back to life.
    Just wondering, Derf
  • (JPM) Kolanovic: overweight bonds... and...
    “We think that one should be using the ytd gains to cut equity allocations, and to reduce portfolio beta,” Kolanovic wrote. “We believe international equities (China/EM, Japan and Europe) offer better risk-reward than US equities.”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-kolanovic-urges-investors-ditch-202155191.html
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    ”Watch out for the mutual funds, though."
    Depends which funds I suppose. Some of the miners (p/m and industrial) were flat or up slightly. But some of the p/m miners got hit pretty hard today. Gold actually gained a tad. A few funds I track (but don’t necessarily own): VWINX -.56% / PRWCX -.89% / HSGFX +.74% While not technically a fund, BRK.B held up pretty well, loosing just -47%. Bonds and bond funds generally fell today, adding to the losses a balanced portfolio might otherwise sustain on such a down day. As mentioned previously, I no longer share information re my own investments.
  • U.S. Treasuries Yield Curve Tool
    Thank you. Great to visualize the inverted yield curve.
    Short duration are reaching close to 5%. As of today, 6 mo and 12 mo T bills yield 4.98 and 4.99%, respectively.
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202302
    Today, new auction has been posted for 13 week, 26 week and 52 weeks T bills, 2 years, 3 years, and 5 years T notes. The expected yields are posted in major brokerages. Whichever treasuries you decide to purchase, you need to place your order by this Sunday and it will be executed by the following Tuesday.
  • Norfolk Southern Derailment and Low-Road Capitalism
    Since Norfolk Southern's derailment on February 3rd in East Palestine, Ohio, the stock has fallen about 6.5% while Union Pacific has dropped 4.8% and CSX 3%. The poisoning of an entire community with PVC and other carcinogens seems to be worth about 2% to 3% of the company's value relative to its peers.
    https://npr.org/2023/02/16/1157333630/east-palestine-ohio-train-derailment
    Several cars were carrying vinyl chloride, a cancer-causing substance. Other cars held other hazardous substances
    Five of the derailed cars were carrying vinyl chloride, a manmade substance that is a key ingredient in PVC, the hard plastic resin used widely in construction and health care.
    At room temperature, vinyl chloride is a sweet-smelling colorless gas. It is typically transported in the form of a compressed liquid.
    Inhalation of vinyl chloride can cause respiratory symptoms like shortness of breath, along with neurological symptoms like headaches and dizziness. Chronic exposure to high levels of vinyl chloride has been associated with liver damage and cancer, according to the CDC.
    This week, the EPA released a partial Norfolk Southern manifest that detailed other hazardous chemicals on the train, which included ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, ethylhexyl acrylate and isobutylene. All can cause irritation or neurological symptoms like dizziness and headaches.
    https://thenation.com/article/economy/rail-workers-say-industry-courts-derailments-in-quest-for-profits/
    Rail workers have insisted for years that the staffing cuts that rail carriers have pursued to pad their bottom line would create a safety crisis in the industry. “Through PSR [Precision Scheduled Railroading], they’ve cut staffing levels, not just for the operating side, but for maintenance…and basically all crafts across the line,” Doering said. These acute staff shortages also mean that freight lines are subject to incomplete or infrequent inspections, compounding the risks of environmental disaster.
    https://nytimes.com/article/ohio-train-derailment.html
    Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, weighed in on Tuesday, criticizing Norfolk Southern in a public letter for “inaccurate information and conflicting modeling” of the impact of the derailment.
    Residents of East Palestine are losing trust in state officials and in Norfolk Southern, saying that no one has clearly communicated the scale of the disaster and the public health threats it could pose months or years later.
    On Wednesday evening, hundreds of East Palestine residents crowded a school gym for an informational meeting about the derailment. They peppered local and state officials with questions about how such a disaster could be avoided and whether their water was truly safe to drink. Representatives from Norfolk Southern declined to attend.
    Residents were evacuated and face uncertainty.
    Just after the derailment, 1,500 to 2,000 residents of East Palestine were told to evacuate. Schools were closed for the week, along with some roads.
    https://nytimes.com/2023/02/15/us/ohio-train-derailment-anxiety.html
    “I just don’t want to be diagnosed with cancer or something 10, 15 years down the line because of their mistake,” said Therese Vigliotti, 47, who was outdoors the night that the chemicals were burned and said that her tongue still feels scalded and that she had seen blood in her stool for two days.
    Most of the anger so far has been directed at Norfolk Southern, with elected officials publicly taking the rail company to task. Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a Republican, called it “absurd” that Norfolk Southern had not been required to notify local officials about the train’s contents before it came through because of its classification, calling for congressional action and dangling the threat of legal action should the company fail to pay for the cleanup.
    In a public letter, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a Democrat, denounced Norfolk Southern for its “poor handling” of the derailment, charging that “prioritizing an accelerated and arbitrary timeline to reopen the rail line injected unnecessary risk and created confusion in the process.”
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Mine without the first 6.5 letters... Only have few hundreds shares. Fotflmao
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    ****Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just received a dividend check for $205,881,319.79 from Tim Cook****
    Compounding powers exponentially growth overtime
    Maybe very good in 5 10 yrs....buy and hold
    Think is good to add more $SCHD extremely long term hold?
    Ty
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/15/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 2/15/23
    For the week ending on 2/15/23, neutral became the top sentiment (37.1%; above average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (28.8%; below average); bullish became the middle sentiment (34.1%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was +5.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; cryptos; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (51+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil flat, gold down, dollar up. Bull-Bear spread remained positive for another week. There were balloons of mysterious origins that were all shot down with missiles. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/936
  • VIX 18.23 (After hours 2/15) curiouser and curiouser …
    @Hank. Re: TAIL. isn’t that managed by the great Meb Faber?
    From the Prospectus: “Mebane T. Faber is the portfolio manager for the Fund and has managed the Fund since its inception in February 2016.”
    @larryB - I’ve dug up a fairly recent interview with Faber for you. To be clear, I have little knowledge of his investment career or philosophy, nor do I own any of his funds as of this writing. I track TAIL along with roughly a dozen other funds for whatever insights I can glean about the markets. i would never recommend this fund to anyone.