A rare 2nd DEATH-CROSS for small-cap R2000/IWM today. 1st was in April.
There were high hopes for GOLDEN-CROSSES that turned out to be false in January and July.
The same is also seem for better index SP SC 600 (IJR, SPSM).
Bright side may be - but how much worse can it be? Or, it is in giant trading range since 2022.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=_IWM&p=D&st=2023-01-01&id=p37153942767

No comment on whether I “believe” the numbers. I don’t dispute that they are honestly computed based on their best ability and the complex methods they use. Catch’s post explains the methodology. So I accept them.
Where I wonder … Are they comparing apples to apples? If the quality / flavor of my cereal falls, if the fat content of a pound of sirloin increases, if the nutritional value of a pre-cooked frozen meal is lessened, if containers are more cheaply made and break easier, or if smaller sized packages are no longer available (forcing you to buy more than wanted) … do those changes get reflected in COLA? With beer I try to find 12 fl. oz bottles. But a lot of them are now 11.2 oz. Did the COLA gurus factor that in? And if I’m now doing my own scanning and bagging of groceries shouldn’t that devalue those products compared to their worth when checkout service once taken for granted?
With autos - Do we as consumers realize that they’re in no way comparable to what we bought new just 10 years ago? I’d imagine those COLA figures take into account in price comparisons that a new car today is likely to have factory installed radar, back-up cameras, larger tires and rims, GPS and internet functionality. If they include these new features to a car’s “value” (as I suspect), than the cost increase year to year would appear a lot less on the chart, but would still still ding your pocketbook a whole lot more than 10 years ago. Hard to argue these features don’t increase value / desirability. Few of us would throw them overboard.
Entertainment? How on earth can they get a firm grip on prices? My Disney /Hulu / ESPN pack is constantly being repriced (upward). While more commercials are being inserted into programs. Fewer top quality channels to choose from. So many different “for-purchase” “extras” (that were once included) that it would take a really sophisticated analyst to get to the bottom of it all.
One thing that has offset the cost of living in recent years is that some electronic devices have fallen in price. A cheap cellphone can probably be bought for $35 on Amazon. TV’s have come down in price over the past couple decades. And cellular providers have been in a war to undercut one another so that your voice / data subscription may cost less today than 5-10 years ago.

@Old Joe . One possible solution. Use a discount store such as Aldi or Walmart. Tally up the typical
necessity basket of goods for the average family (perhaps 20-30 items at regular price ) cost on day one and and then on day 365 buy the same items and compute the % change. My guess is the CMS just pulls numbers out of some data banks which are not accurate. My opinion.-Food prices did not increase by 3.6% in the past year , as noted on the yellow sheet above. The increase was much higher and we are discount store food buyers.

Ahhh, what a pleasure to see this thing again. Thank you for your service, Shadow.
Goldman Sachs MF (NEW): https://www.gsam.com/content/dam/gsam/pdfs/us/en/tax-information/2023/EI-51%20Cap%20End_Distribution-2023.pdf?sa=n&rd=n
Russell Investments: https://russellinvestments.com/Publications/US/Document/Estimated_Cap_Gain_RIC_Funds.pdf

Here's a good look:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8Pas2lWcAAX_5q?format=jpg
The density plot of a cross section of price changes looks really good. Very close to pre-pandemic levels.
This change isn't being driven by outliers or where categorization - the actual distribution of price changes is reverting back, even while the economy grows.

Another ”use by” watcher! Damn, don’t they come up with some of the tiniest, most difficult to read markings? Must be a whole course of study devoted to making those dates nearly invisible.
In my first year living / working downstate (1970) I’d load up on the “expired” hot dogs the day they were reduced 50%. Pretty much comprised my diet that year. Went OK with Bud. Helped keep the stretched budget in check. Paying off student debt and driving an old beaten up Chev.

Some nice facts cited by david from Google. I’ve separated the food items into two different groups: (1) generally less healthy (cholesterol and / or sodium laden) foods (2) a healthier group foods (resembling my own diet) emphasizing beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables and legume-based protein (From February to March, adjusted for seasonal swings)
Less Healthy Choices
- eggs … 10.9% decline.
- Butter sank 6%
- ham fell 4.8%,
- hot dogs dropped 2.9% and
Average monthly price drop: -6.15%
————————————————-
Healthier Choices
- uncooked beef roasts fell 2.3%.
- Fish and seafood prices dropped 1.2%.
- with lettuce falling 5.7%.
- Fresh fruit and vegetables overall dipped 1.7%.
- Peanut butter went down by 2.3%.
Average monthly price drop: -2.64%
If you consume a lot of eggs, hot dogs, ham and butter your prices that month fell by over 6%. But, if you consume a lot of beef, seafood, lettuce and fruits vegetables and legume-based protein your food costs for the month declined by less than half as much.
Picky. Picky. But why? Because “cost of living” is a very individual experience. “Average” diet? “Average” auto? “Average” house? While the numbers may not lie, our own individual costs can be substantially different from those averages. I wouldn’t question @fundly’s personal experience or anyone else’s. I’ll accept the government’s published COLA. But those are broad-based averages. They probably do not reflect your own or my own experience.
Food prices vary greatly depending on city, state, neighborhood, size of store and distance from distributor. In Michigan prices are considerably higher in remote less populated northern areas than in much heavier populated urban areas to the south. So I think antidotal experiences (even if atypical) have a place in discussions of COLA. (None of this is meant to dispute / question the quality or accuracy of random googling.)

Thank you @davidsherman. I've been a happy customer of RPHYX for quite a few years, and SPC since it's launch. I've been very impressed and kind of amazed with the steady trend line SPC has had over the past year. It's nice to see that both of these funds surpassed treasuries and CDs for 1 year return, though that may be a bit more difficult moving forward if CD's and T's are now in the upper 5% range going forward. But, still betting on you.

5-yr TIPS Auction is next week on 10/19/23 and est 2.46% + inflation may be good for some. Obviously, that is for 5-yr hold. That compares favorably with 5-yr nominal at 4.69%. TIPS held to maturity behave quite differently than TIPS funds.
https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/A_20231012_5.pdf
Edit/Add. 5-yr TIPS, 10/19/23. 2.44% (real) YTM (2 3/8% coupon). So, 2.44% + inflation.
treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/R_20231019_3.pdf

Vanguard has two different cash sweep programs. They both use the same banks. For reasons described below not having to do with safety, I wouldn't be inclined to keep much money in either sweep account.
Vanguard Cash Deposit uses the FDIC-insured bank deposits instead of VMFXX as one's core (transaction) account in a Vanguard brokerage account.
Its current 3.7% APY is well below that of VMFXX (5.28% 7 day yield, compounding to 5.41%) or many internet banks. This is not a place for long term cash. It's just a place to park trading dollars.
Vanguard Cash Plus Account is Vanguard's latest attempt at providing limited cash management services (no checking or ATM access). Its 4.70% APY looks very good compared with internet banks. But still less than MMFs. Because this account comes with a routing number, you can do EFTs into and out of Vanguard this way.
It is currently just a pilot program open by invitation only. I haven't been invited :-(
Aside from the transfer feature, I'm still more inclined to use a Vanguard MMF for cash. If safety is a concern, one can use a government MMF. Still higher yield and safer underlying holdings.
In the end, if you are keeping a fair amount of money in one of these Vanguard programs and you're not comfortable with FDIC coverage, you can opt out of using Bank of Baroda among the sweep banks.

We go through the same ritual every year - anecdotes about how prices of some class of items or another has shot up. Then a leap from that to inferring that the average increase in prices nationwide can't possibly be what the BLS is reporting.
Three years ago it was lumber. Soaring through the roof as people sheltered in place and decided to build more shelter. Anyone check the price of lumber recently? It spiked around $1700 during the pandemic, and is now around $500, having dropped 16% over the past year alone.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
Similar figures for some other commodities, such as wheat down a third (33%), dairies (cheese and milk) down about a fifth, and coffee down a quarter.
OTOH, OJ has roughly doubled in the last year. Climate change (hurricanes) and disease are the attributed causes.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-inflation-orange-juice-prices-florida-economy-eggs-olive-oil-2023-10
This Oct 2023 piece goes on to note: "Other breakfast staples like eggs and bacon soared in price last year but have gotten cheaper in 2023, thanks to higher interest rates dragging down overall inflation."
That seems consistent with @davidrmoran's random googling above.

Also:
If I'm reading it right, the links provided by @msf apply to Medicare Advantage Plans. But I have traditional Medicare, and pay for a separate Part D Plan.

Part B incr: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/your-money/social-security-cola-2024.html

In its annual report to Congress, the Medicare board of trustees projected that premiums would rise to $174.80 in 2024, up from $164.90.

(If you'd like to go to the original source, the 273 page annual report to Congress is here: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2023)
Part D incr: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-and-medicare-prescription-drug-programs-remain-stable-2024

CMS previously announced that the average total monthly premium for Medicare Part D coverage is projected to be approximately $55.50 in 2024. This expected amount is a decrease of 1.8% from $56.49 in 2023.

@fundly et alia
I wonder if you notice this kind of event (just a random googling):
From February to March, adjusted for seasonal swings, eggs had the most dramatic decrease, with a 10.9% decline. Egg prices soared in previous months primarily due to avian flu, which constrained supply, and companies taking advantage of the disruption to pad profits. But more recently, egg prices have been coming down.
In the meat aisle, ham fell 4.8%, hot dogs dropped 2.9% and uncooked beef roasts fell 2.3%. Fish and seafood prices dropped 1.2%.
Butter sank 6%, with lettuce falling 5.7%. Fresh fruit and vegetables overall dipped 1.7%. Peanut butter went down by 2.3%.
and this is from 6m ago. I know at the local discount supermarket the cereal I favor has gone back to 2020 levels, at least when on sale. I like most try and do larger shopping as a function of sales. (duh)
You seem a curious person, but I am not sure there can be productive discussion.
>> quoting CMS press releases that are factually wrong.
>> I am no expert on how to correct the COLA amounts. What about bringing in a nonaligned, nonpolitical associated advisory group of experts on this subject that would tell our government entity, what the true inflation rate is for the average SS recepient and enact this amount.
I will have to dig up a host of Krugman articles on inflation calcs showing their ins and outs and data details and choices (smart and foolish).
For now, go know that 'a nonaligned, nonpolitical associated advisory group of experts' pretty much describes who it is that parses the huge amounts of data and comes up with the provisional bottom line figures. I mean, do you really believe their work is done nefariously / dishonestly / not in good faith ? What is your point other than your disagreement about 'average' citizens? Why the lying on the part of authorities?
>> A fool would think these figures are true and correct. ... I estimate our food bill has increased by 25% -30% in the past year and expect it to rise way more than 3.8% in the next year. I doubt many would argue with me on this point.
Well, you should track this, including selected past figs and totals if you can, and write an article, which would make you famous and bring some small moneys.

@catch22 : I see management has been in place since 2008. Also only one bad year out of ten from being in top 25% !!

Looks like this happened in Feb 2023.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/05/2584151/0/en/The-New-Ireland-Fund-Inc-Announces-Results-of-Special-Meeting-of-Stockholders-Proposal-to-Liquidate-and-Dissolve-the-Fund-is-Approved.html
https://www.stocktitan.net/news/IRL/the-new-ireland-fund-inc-issues-liquidating-6yo0gb2d64fb.html

Are coming closer to - or below - par (most of 'em) again, which got me interested as long-term income holds for QDI.
Then I noticed their Dec AGM is going to hold votes "on the amount of cash patronage and equity redeemed and distributed to owners" which kind of put my interest on temporary hold until this is resolved.

"In the last 15 years, the volume of allocated equity has tripled – and it’s more than five times the equity held in 1999. Allocated equity has grown every year, even during times when CHS had strong earnings and returned a significant amount of cash to CHS owners.
Continuing to manage equity this way will likely mean the CHS equity program has less value to owners over time, since it will likely take decades longer to redeem equity."
More @ https://www.chsinc.com/about-chs/owners-and-investors/equity
Since I know some here hold and/or like these things, I figured it worth passing along the item as an FYI.

I’ve noticed the same effect at the local WalMart where I do a lot of grocery shopping. Prices spiked sharply almost overnight 1-2 months ago. Interestingly, that coincided with about the time they did a whole lot of new hiring. Prior to that you might wait in line 30 minutes to an hour to check out. I more than once walked away leaving behind a cart full of foodstuff. But after all these new hires showed up the lines got much shorter / are moving a lot faster. And the new, mostly younger, folks working checkout seem like happy campers too. Looks like WalMart raised the pay / benefits of to attract new workers. That, I think, translated into sharply higher shelve prices almost overnight. . Given a choice, I’ll pay an extra 25-50 cents for a jar of pickles or loaf of bread if it means saving 30 minutes at checkout. “Time is money” as the old expression goes.
I hope the above doesn’t sound trite. The labor shortage is real and affects the cost of living. In part, it’s a consequence of we aging baby boomers weaving our way through those golden years while the remaining active labor force struggles to keep up with growing demand. Lots of other factors too - like union busting tactics over the past half century that have lowered compensation for common labor, making work less desirable for the less educated.
I don’t know how current all those recently reported inflation numbers are. But it seems possible to me that the spike in food prices antidotely observed / reported by @fundly and myself are yet to be reflected in those stats. In fact, there was an unexpected spikes in inflation reported this morning that seems to have tanked equitiy prices today out of fear of still higher interest rates.

Thanks for the CPI-W figures posted. My opinion. A fool would think these figures are true and correct. I do the food shopping for the home. One example. At our Aldi, a true discount food store, a box of saltines has gone from 0.95 to 1.49 in the past year. That is a 48% increase. I could go on and on but there is no need. To report a past yearly food inflation rate of 3.8% is absurd. I estimate our food bill has increased by 25% -30% in the past year and expect it to rise way more than 3.8% in the next year.I doubt many would argue with me on this point.

Nice post from @Catch22 that explains how CPI is calculated. Problem is: There’s no “average” American, so everyone’s affected differently. I did read somewhere that auto insurance has skyrocketed recently - a lot to do with all the technology that goes into new vehicles today. ”Computers on Wheels” to a degree. So if you smash one up repairs can be enormous. I haven’t noticed it yet. Carry a relatively high $2500 collision deductible. (At least my insurance agent considers it so). House insurance has been greatly impacted by all the natural disasters in some regions. In some areas people are lucky to obtain it at any price.
What sometimes gets overlooked in thinking of inflation is the compounding effect. 5% a year for 5 years works out to better than a 27.5% cost of living rise in only 5 years. And, future annual increases compound off of that number. Adds up fast.
Thanks for the spreadsheet @msf. Enlightening

Medicare isn't based on any inflation index. Medicare looks at its estimated expenses and then devises several IRMAA tiers annually with varying levels of subsidies. Participants pay 25% (basic, no IRMAA), 35%, 50%, 65%, 80%, 85% of the total costs.
https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/medicare/medicare-premiums.html