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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Favoring 50/50 Allocation
    NOTE: Relative to bonds and no market support in 2022; a 50/50 mix of a broad based U.S. equity index and a broad based U.S. bond index had a combined total return of -16.32 % for 2022. The indexes I used are VITPX and VBMPX ,which are inside a 529 college account.
  • NYT: Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World
    Modi and his party do have an authoritarian bent but India has a rule of law and free and fair elections. At no point has India come anywhere close to a Jan 6 type event and the country does not suffer a situation where close to 50% of the population believe that a national election was rigged.
    Elections in India are run much more efficiently because unlike the US, the Election Commission in India is an independent national body that sets and enforces rules. Significantly more efficient than the 3,000+ County level bodies here that manage a national election and where just a few bad apples at the state or county level can (cheat) swing the results for a Presidential election or affect the balance of power in Congress.
    India is more corrupt than the US but the US does not have clean hands. Here the corruption is more refined, is relabeled as lobbying, wears suits and ties and calls itself House Reps and US Senators. Presidential loyalties are bought and sold on K Street. The US is a corporotacracy that has no equal.
    India is playing both sides to its advantage much like any other country is expected to. No different than US cozying up to dictators in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia while still singing the praises of democracy. Or European countries enjoying the benefits of a US security umbrella but under contributing to UN and NATO budgets. Or Canada being a staunch supporter of human rights but panicking when a few hundred illegals breach the border.
    Etc..
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    ROC(250) = Rate of Change over 250 trading days, so that is close to 12-mo. If you prefer 252 or some other number, you can adjust.
    https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:rate_of_change_roc_and_momentum
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    As with star ratings or any other magic numbers, one needs look behind the numbers to better understand what they represent.
    Somewhat like SRI funds that set very stringent de minimis thresholds on investing in "bad" companies, the sites I suggested grade on severe curves. Invest more than a little in "bad" companies, and your score goes down rapidly. It's still monotonic - the more a fund invests in "bad" companies, the worse its score. But it's a nonlinear scale.
    To take ICLN as an example - fully 1/8 (12.49%) of its portfolio is invested in utilities selling or using fossil fuels. Half of that alone (6.22%) is invested in ConEd. Seriously?
    Sure, ConEd has a "clean energy" subsidiary, ConEd Solutions. They used to offer me clean electricity as an ESCO, but that ended years ago. Now, all I can buy from ConEd as an electricity supplier is this mix (as of Dec 2020 - the latest info provided):
    Biomass <1%
    Coal 2%
    Hydro 9%
    Natural Gas 47%
    Nuclear 36%
    Oil <1%
    Renewable Biogas <1%
    Solar <1%
    Solid Waste 3%
    Wind 3%
    Emissions relative to NYS average
    SO2 113% of average
    NOx 112% of average
    CO2 113% of average
    Needless to say, I buy electricity from a third party, not ConEd.
    Carbon footprint? ICLN is off the charts, as measured by direct and indirect carbon emissions per dollar invested. You may disagree with FossilFreeFund's figure, but even MSCI's figure for the fund (also direct and indirect emissions), is still very high (nearly double that of the S&P 500 (IVV), per MSCI).
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239738/ishares-global-clean-energy-etf
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    StockCharts ROC(250) is close to 12-mo rolling returns.
    For RPHIX,
    image
  • Vanguard Favoring 50/50 Allocation
    Tax-managed VTMFX has 50-50.
    But other Vanguard allocation/balanced funds are either 60-40 or 40-60. For years, people have talked about a 50-50 mix of VWELX and VWINX to produce 50-50 allocation.
    Wellington managed HBLAX is close to 50-50.
  • Vanguard Favoring 50/50 Allocation
    If 2023 still face interest rate hikes (at least several smaller ones), 50/50 allocation will not improve much from the 60/40. 60/40 in S&P500/cash would have done better, but that is hindsight.
    It is really a reward-risk trade off between two asset classes that have opposing correlation but that broke down last year as they approached 1.0. Thus no protection from bond allocation. You have to ask yourself whether this continues in 2023?
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    You should execute your investment strategy as you determine appropriate. You are also correct that RPHIX has not historically generated a 4% calendar year ending Dec 31st return of 4%. However, RPHIX has generated total returns in excess of 4% on a rolling 12 month basis in the past (few but has). Below is a chart comparing the 12 month trailing 12 month return of RPHIX to the 1 year UST yield at the beginning of the measured period (T+0). The only underperformance was as a consequence of COVID volatility.
    If you compare 12 month rolling total return of RPHIX since inception to the beginning 1 year UST, there are 136 measurable periods. Below is the max, min and average excess return:
    Max 5.09%
    Min -1.71%
    Avg 2.13%
    On a distribution basis for 136 measured periods, the first column represents the 1 year excess total return (RPHIX Total Return - I Yr UST Yield) and the second column shows the % of times of the occurance
    Negative 7%
    0-1% 11%
    1%-2% 29%
    2%-3% 23%
    3%-4% 22%
    >4% 7%
    That said, RPHIX is not a substitute for a 3, 6, 10 month UST or CD.
  • US Job Openings Top Forecasts, Keeping Pressure on Fed to Hike
    Bloomberg is behind a paywall. Get to read few news on Apple News.
    US companies added more jobs than expected in December, driven by small- and medium-sized businesses, and highlighting the resilience of labor demand that’s underpinning wage growth. Private payrolls increased 235,000 last month after an upwardly revised 182,000 in November, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The figure exceeded all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
    Treasury yields spiked and US stock futures declined after the release.
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/us-job-openings-remain-highly-elevated-at-10-46-million
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/4/23
    For the week ending on 1/4/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (42.0%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (20.5%; very low); neutral became the middle sentiment (37.5%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -21.5% (very low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); supply-chain disruptions; recession (2023?); the Fed (slower pace but higher rates longer); dollar; crypto ice-age; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (45+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=890
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    And all of the funds we bought get horrible grades from the site recommended by msf. ... CSGZX ha[s] held up reasonably well from our purchase[] in July
    CSGZX is 'A' rated on fossil fuels, is scored a 17 on carbon footprint and a 35 on carbon intensity, both low relative to benchmarks, and is 'A' rated in terms of deforestation.
  • Amazon Layoffs to Hit Over 17,000 Workers
    Cuts focused on the company’s corporate staff exceed earlier projection
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    Amazon Inc.’s layoffs will affect more than 17,000 employees, according to people familiar with the matter, the highest reduction tally revealed in the past year at a major technology company as the industry pares back amid economic uncertainty.
    The Seattle-based company in November said that it was beginning layoffs among its corporate workforce, with cuts concentrated on its devices business, recruiting and retail operations. At the time, The Wall Street Journal reported the cuts would total about 10,000 people. Thousands of those cuts began last year.
    The rest of the cuts will bring the total number of layoffs to more than 17,000 and will be made over the coming weeks, some of the people said. As of September, Amazon employed 1.5 million people, with a large percentage of them in its warehouses. The layoffs are concentrated in the company’s corporate ranks, some of the people said.
  • High Initial investments and maintaining the original investment amount
    If a fund has a $100,000 minimum, is it OK if you invest with this amount and shortly afterwards, remove a large portion of the initial sum while maintaining the rest of the investment?
    Maybe, maybe not. It depends on what the fund requires for a maintenance balance, and then if you fail to maintain that balance, whether the fund company chooses to exercise its right to give you notice (if required) and close (or downgrade) your account.
    For taxable accounts, FZDXX requires $100K to open, but only $10K to maintain. From its statutory prospectus:
    If your fund balance falls below $10,000 worth of shares for any reason and you do not increase your balance, Fidelity may sell all of your shares and send the proceeds to you after providing you with at least 30 days' notice to reestablish the minimum balance.
    So by prospectus, you're allowed to drop the balance by 90% with no consequences. And even if you drop the balance lower, it's up to the discretion of the fund company (here, Fidelity) to close out the account after appropriate notice.
    The reality is that for this particular fund, Fidelity is pretty lax. But don't push things too far. I did. For RMD purposes, I sold $10K of a fund in a Roth IRA and moved it to FZDXX ($10K min in IRAs). I announced to the Fidelity rep that my intent was that some of that be used for the RMD and the rest stay there to maintain open position in FZDXX. Even though this would drop the balance below the min; I would rely upon Fidelity's discretion not to close the account.
    While the rep acknowledged that Fidelity doesn't really close these accounts, my explicit acknowledgement was a bit too much for him. He (rightly) felt compelled to check with his back office whether this was okay before he put the trade through. The back office said what I was planning was fine and the rep placed the trade. But I did, inadvertently, put him in an awkward position.
    A few years ago, two Vanguard funds we held in admiral shares dropped below the admiral class min. Vanguard converted one of the funds back to investor class shares. The other fund Vanguard left alone. FWIW, the funds were submanaged by different money management firms.
    The bottom line is that it depends. If the rules allow a lower maintenance balance, all is well and good. If not, it's up to the fund company. In my experience, most times the fund company won't care. But sometimes it does act.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    ...Just bought some NHYDY on the dip. Down almost -5% today. They are still buying back shares. Watching closely. Different webpages offer different target prices.
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    Thanks for all the useful information
    @msf
    NALFX available at Schwab without a load.
    NEE has an enormous portfolio of renewable energy so it can really not be considered as fossil fuel dependent as other utilities.
    I have not found ESG calculations at M* very useful, as they are too inflexible. "G" is so widely defined almost any tech company qualifies.
    Making money on the alternative energy ETFs seems dependent on when you buy them, and the price, as always. That is one reason why I think an active fund has advantages.
    A lot of the performance of many of these funds recently is dependent on how much TSLA they own. Active management can cut back large positions like this when they price gets too extreme, but even funds without TSLA have gotten burned last year. ZGEIX for example held onto Beyond Meat as it crashed but sold it before the third quarter.
    There are other sources of information but most cost a lot. For example, "Thunder Said Energy" sends out daily emails about their extensive engineering based research, but charges $500 a report. The free charts are very useful, however. As an example, they list projected Lithium demand, or requirements to upgrade the electrical grid. This lead me to GRID, for example, which has number of positions that are critical to upgrading the power grid, many of them in other funds.
    The jury is still out on the environmental impact required to implement alternative energy infrastructure. Minerals, steel cement are all needed in much greater quantities than traditional oil and gas extraction.
    One point the people at Thundersaidenergy make over and over again, is that the "transition" to decarbonization will require A LOT of energy and fossil fuels. I think it is short sighted to eliminate all oil companies from your investments because they will do well in the near term.
    I have small positions in PWO, LIT, REMX,GMET,TAN,FXC NLR as water and minerals and nuclear power will have to assume greater roles than oil and coal in the years ahead.
  • I bonds
    @yogibearbull
    For example the YTM on TIPS maturing 1/2028 is 1.697 at Schwab. That is the YTM received after paying original price plus accumulated inflation adjustment, correct? (For this particular example, I can't see the actual accumulated adjustment, as it has a $75000 minimum and Schwab won't let me look at the final proposed trade)
    In order for that to beat similar treasury YTM at 3.84, inflation has to run at greater than 2.143 ( 3.84-1.697), and the additional income will be in the form of accumulated inflation adjustment in principal?
  • I bonds
    @sma3, older TIPS will have accumulated inflation adjustments in principal. Pay attention to YTM (for real-yield). Short-term TIPS look more confusing due to the current inflation reflected in quotes.
    TIPS at auctions don't have these issues, but TIPS auctions are less frequent.
    5-Yr TIPS Auctions: April (OI), June (R), October (OI), December (R); OI = Original Issue, R = Reissue.