FOMC Statement, 6/14/23 YBB NotesHawkish-hold, so the fed funds remain at
5.00-
5.2
5%, but it could go up by 2
5-
50 bps by 2023YE; the (bank) reserve balance rate is
5.1
5%; the discount rate is
5.2
5%. The pause now is to let the effects of Fed actions so far work given some lag. The 2-yr is a good indicator of where the fed funds may be going. The Fed doesn't want to surprise the markets (so, monitor CME FedWatch). Any Fed rate cuts may not be for 2 years.
The QT continues at -60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -3
5 billion/mo for MBS. The large Treasury issuance will further reduce financial liquidity. The Fed balance sheet is declining. The Fed is keeping an eye on money-markets. But the Fed only watches the Treasury and fiscal (by Congress) actions.
The economy has slowed. The inflation has moderated but is still high (PCE +4.4%, core PCE +4.7%). The service inflation is sticky. The goal remains average +2% inflation to be achieved without causing much damage the the economy. Soft landing is possible. The labor market is tight and wages will rise, but slower growth will be desirable; labor demand still exceed supply. The consumer spending is also strong. The Fed can only watch the news on labor strikes.
Housing has slowed due to higher mortgage rates and lease renewals have been weak.
Regional banking has stabilized. Credit conditions has tightened. Many small banks have significant CRE exposures and some may have trouble. The Fed is keeping an eye on systemic risks in banks and nonbank financials (that is where problems were during the pandemic).
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1070/thread
FOMC Statement, 6/14/23 
Does Fido charge to reinvest dividends in a non NTF fund? Many brokerages charge for both buy and sell fund transactions. Back in the dark days (pre-2019) when most brokerages charged stock commissions, they charged fees on both ends. Should funds be any different?
As I recall, it was in the 1990s that Fidelity first went to a one-way (buy) fee of $7
5. Schwab took some time to follow before it changed from a $3
5 two-way fee to a
$76 one-way fee. A few other brokerages gradually followed suit.
Some of the brokerages still charging fees on both ends include:
Vanguard: $20/trade. "Fees apply per trade for all purchases, sales, and exchanges, regardless of order size."
T. Rowe Price: $3
5/trade. "If you purchased a fund and paid a transaction fee, one will be charged upon its sale ..."
Merrill: $19.9
5/transaction. "Applies to buy, sell and exchanges."
Vanguard raises fees, mins on legacy (fund) platform and brokerage platform FWIW, I spoke with a Vanguard rep and found out we can still receive our TAX Forms by US Mail without paying a fee. I think there may be a tax law that requires tax forms to be mailed unless taxpayer agrees to another delivery method. Not sure.
I, like some others, would like to continue receiving statements by mail for the benefit of my wife if something were to happen to me, but not enough to pay $25 per account. I suppose she could call VG and change back to paper.
Strange VIX, SKEW, SP500 Today, PPI +1.1% (vs exp +1.5%), core PPI +2.8% (vs exp +2.9%). So, if (wholesale) PPI << (retail) CPI, that means future CPI will decline.</blockquote>
Will U.S. equity markets rise or fall after today’s 2 PM FOMC announcement?
Mostly going nowhere today. Unusual lack of volatility in recent days.
Strange VIX, SKEW, SP500 Today, PPI +1.1% (vs exp +1.5%), core PPI +2.8% (vs exp +2.9%). So, if (wholesale) PPI << (retail) CPI, that means future CPI will decline.
