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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Global Markets and ETF Inflows Build Momentum in November
    Hi @Sven I believe you didn't insert the link within the words.......I've done this, too.
    Global Markets and ETF Inflows Build Momentum in November.
    Is it this M* report?
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    Banks & financials can count preferred as Tier 1 capital only when they are noncumulative; some exceptions may apply. So, there are rarely any bank/financial preferreds that are cumulative.
    https://content.next.westlaw.com/practical-law/document/I21061766ef0811e28578f7ccc38dcbee/Tier-1-Capital?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    Hello
    Was quite busy today
    I Quit trading last few months heavy loss
    -50s% w trading acct and -30% w passive acct (mid Oct). Lucky I have large bond portfolio cushioned the loss last 12 months...group I followed traders each loss 50 - 70%. Too much Time vested w poor returns.
    Last 4 6 wks been doing what have been working last 14 yrs (before heavily trading last 2 yrs). Been dca into indexes, Corp Bonds, Sp500, Vang vgstx vpccx 2045 techs etf Tsla snow LCID Rivn techs..
    We do have Pff and schd. Will look at AEL.PB HT Dfp jps PFFA JPM-M more closely, but likely stick to previous basics buying.
    Mine 401k surprised only down - 8% due to dca and market rebounded 18% since mid Oct, whereas the trading portfolio came back Little it still down - 19% but I just left it alone last few months.
    I think next 12 months after new year maybe dismal returns Sp500 won't do well maybe max 5 7% most but we can never time market (expected recession /jobs loss, and diminish ER) . Lots folk could be wrong market timer and market may go haywire +20s% returns end 2023 (like 2010 lots pundits expected poor performance but it went up quite remarkable).
    Short terms maybe good for gold since usd took heavy beatings. Short terms if Sp500 200 days MA hold and Market breadth hold /melt slowly up we may indeed get nice Xmas rally and hope finish 2022 strong.
    Imho all these youtubers/traders /Seeking alpha writers all want your subscriptions 15-99$ per month and their performance are disappointing. Very difficult beat index or Buffet
    Happy holidays
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    @kings53man, JPM-M pays you $0.26/share every quarter for a total of $1.25/share/year. Still a good deal.
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    This is what I have done recently (reported on another thread).
    I bought a preferred stock JPM-M, the company is very safe from default for US$ 16.998 per share, coupon is 4.2% with first call date being 9/1/2026.
    Income is 6% to me based on my cost so I collect 6% till 9/1/26 (I get US$ .26 every quarter per share). This will not be paid only if JPM doesn't pay the dividend on the regular share (I think the chances are very remote but this is the little risk with any preferred).
    If JPM calls the preferred stock after 9/1/26, I will get US$ 25 for each share - potential capital gain.
    This is invested in Roth so 6% income and subsequent CG will be tax free.
    Do you see any issue with this?
    Mark - corrected & thanks for correcting me.
    Thanks,
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    @Observant1, interesting info about REFLX REIT under the newer interval-fund structure, not the older, opaque Nontraded-REIT structure.
    So, DAILY valuations, DAILY purchases at NAV at market close (may include applicable sales load), minimum 5% REDEMPTION per quarter. Purchase MINIMUM of $1 million mentioned in the prospectus but not in other web or PR documents (brokers and financial advisors may have other minimums); institutional class only for now.
    Prospectus
  • November 2022 updates?
    FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX) is pretty much atop the pile, at least if you value long-term performance. Over 20 years it matches the S&P 500 with comparable volatility and a noticeably small maximum drawdown. Also, nice people.
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    I'm personally invested in interval funds NICHX and CELFX for what I believe are good risk adjusted returns. Currently evaluating CEDIX.
    ** Not investment advice by any means, buyer beware **
    Fwiw, I was fixated on ER's for more than 20 years and hewed to strict limits of 1.25% with very few exceptions over those years. However I'm now more focussed on strategy, pedigree and what's going to end up in my pocket compared to the alternatives. Not stating that cost controls aren't important and also not stating that my current view is right for everybody but in general while I believe cost should be a factor it should not be a means to automatically eliminate. The cost should be viewed along with other factors -- strategy, risk, etc.. I love Vanguard products and focus on cost but Vanguard funds don't always result in the highest(or safest) net returns
    Niche investment strategies and steady returns will command a fee premium, it is what it is.
  • CEDIX - International & Event-Driven Credit Interval Fund
    This fund popped up in my screener and looks interesting on the surface
    https://www.destracapital.com/about/updates/destra-capital-launches-international-event-driven-credit-interval-fund
    https://www.destracapital.com/strategies/bluebay-destra-international-event-driven-credit-fund
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=CEDIX
    Investment Strategy and Philosophy
    The Fund invests in credit related instruments and/or investments considered by the Fund to have the potential to provide a high level of total return. Credit related instruments include:
    Bonds
    Debt securities
    Loans issued by various U.S. and non-U.S. public- or private-sector entities
    Derivatives
    Cash equivalents
    Pros: Global mandate, CAGR 12.60%, StdDev 9.43%, interval fund, market co-relation 0.57, Alpha 9.11%, corporate parent is Royal Bank of Canada
    Cons: Relatively young, low AUM < $60M, niche strategy
    Anybody invested in this one or have thoughts on it?
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    I agree - Rida tends to cheerlead them quite a bit, even when they're directly impacted by interest rates. The user comments, like usual, are helpful though.
    But fwiw saying I'm planning a few preferred buys this month to use as income ballast. I prefer the 15% tax on QDI versus buying bonds that'll be taxed at my much higher bracket. But I may -- may -- dip my toes into agencies in Jan/Feb, depending on what their YTM/YTW look like.
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    I have always been a bit suspicious of Rida Morwa's many many posts on Seeking Alpha.
    They all seem to promise unlimited income with no or little risk. The articles are well written and seemingly wise and appear to offer great investment opportunities. But why are there so many many recommendations?
    The recent article is pushing HT ( Hersha Hospitality Trust) preferreds. HT owns a lot of "high end" hotels nationwide ( Marriot?). The common dropped 75% during Covid and the dividend ($1.12 a year) disappeared until last month when it started paying $.20 a year.
    The Preferreds crashed also. HTpD was down 75% and the dividend of $0.406 a quarter was eliminated for all of 2020. As it was cumulative, they did payback dividends in 3/2021 of $1.625 after Pandemic eased.
    A quick Google search turns up a fair amount of concern about Rida Morwa's investment service ($550 a year) performance. I cannot find any information the service itself posts about past preformance on the website.
    TipRanks says only 52% of his recs have been profitable one year later with an average return of 4.3%.
    https://www.tipranks.com/experts/bloggers/rida-morwa
    Interesting blog on income investing has worse accusations
    https://innovativeincomeinvestor.com/new-discussion-areas/
    "HDO is short for High Dividend Opportunities which is a paid service on Seeking Alpha. The head guy is Rida Morwa, but he is assisted by several other authors, often times Pendragon or Preferred Stock Trader.
    On this board, III, they might be referred to as HDO, Rida or Pendy.
    There are at least four issues that some III’ers have with HDO.
    1) They typically pick the highest yielding preferred/baby bond to recommend to investors, because it is enticing. They often times understate the risk. Several of their recommendation have literally gone bankrupt. Others have suffered catastrophic losses but have not gone bankrupt (yet.)
    2) They ignore their past history of recommendations. They might recommend an issue when it is selling for say $20. Then it drops to $10 and they write a NEW post recommending it again, WITHOUT mentioning they recommended it earlier. Obviously anybody that bought it on the first recommendation is suffering.
    3) When someone posts any critical comments they typically get deleted on short order. We do NOT know if it is a HDO person or a SA person, but “responsible opposing comments” are NOT welcome.
    4) There is a suspicion that is NOT provable by us, that they are taking advantage of very illiquid preferreds to reward “insiders”. The mechanism would be something like:
    a) Have “insiders” buy positions in XYZ
    b) Publish a recommendation to HDO paid subscribers on XYZ, which pushes the price up
    c) Release the recommendation to the free SA readers on XYZ which further pushes the price up
    d) Creates a potential opportunity for insiders and/or paid subscribers to make a quick profit, mostly based on HDO’s ability to move the price up.
    In the last two days, a few of HDO’s picks have done very poorly. Yesterday it was HMLP-A which closed down 21%. Today it was ALIN-A,B, E which all closed down ~ 62%. HDO had written SA posts recommending all four of these. The posts are NOT recent, but at the same time they did NOT post any sell recommendations, so there is an assumption they were still valid HDO recommendations."
    For Preferreds CEFS etc look at Forbes/Fridson Income Investing Newsletter ($200 a year). Marty Fridson is quoted in Barron's regularly
    https://isinewsletter.com/profile-current-newsletter/
    Four portfolios of preferreds, CEFs , lots of ideas and recommendations on individual issues. His portfolios of preferreds etc were down between 12 and 24% in 2020.
    For income investing in individual stocks, I have found Simply Safe Dividends very useful
    https://www.simplysafedividends.com/
    He publishes three portfolios, with monthly return and risk stats, compares them to to SCHD, and SPHD and VIG and trades very little (now unfortunately price is up to $550 a year but there is a two week free trial).
    Kiplinger's Investing for Income is much cheaper ($79 a year) and has pretty good ideas ( a little more volatile than SSD so much diversification necessary here) for mutual funds, ETFs, CEFs and stocks.
    In my opinion, all three are much better choices than anything I have seen on Seeking Alpha
  • Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks
    Protect Your Income With Preferred Stocks https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561795-protect-your-income-with-preferred-stocks?source=Messenger
    ****Your retirement should not depend on the emotions of the markets.
    Preferred securities provide additional reliability to your income.
    Two discounted preferreds with up to 8.3% qualified dividends****
    AEL.PB, HT
    Could be two vehicles to add for long term preferred good stock list
    Some good discussions about investing ideas at discussion section
    We also held $PFF since 2014
    Have/exposed $schd last 4 5 months
  • November 2022 updates?
    Re @David_Snowball #4 in the forthcoming January 2023 issue, "Identify opportunities in small caps (especially small cap value)....."
    The current Barron's has a feature story on small-caps with lots of data (but un-linkable chart and tables),
    BULLISH. Small-caps (SCs are 30% cheaper than LCs; SC R2000 has a lot of garbage and has fwd P/E 20, but excluding unprofitable companies (33%, many biotechs) & few outliers, the fwd P/E is only 12; SCs have domestic orientation and have more cyclicality; risk – recession but it may be priced in; OEFs NSVAX, WGROX; ETFs FNDA, SLY (good that IWM is not recommended); stocks BOOT, CDAY, HUBS, MGY, SAIA, SITE, STZHF, TPR)
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-stocks-funds-51670023712?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/370/barron-december-5-2022-2
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    Maybe this thread over at retire-early might ease your mind. Everyone, or many, with older hotmail accounts started getting spammed like crazy several weeks ago. I set my hotmail account to block all incoming email except email from my brother-in-law. I would have deleted the account if I felt he wouldn't be frustrated by it. They seem to be just random junk/spam and don't seem to be tailored to an individual. It's like many hotmail accounts receive the same spam hoping a few will act on it.
    Sudden Flood of Spam emails
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    @catch22, Just watching the wild swings in both direction with TBT and TMF. No buying bonds until later 2023.
    Until rate hike is done and reached the terminal rate, it is hard to imagine bond funds will reverse course. Longer duration will swing more in both direction while the shorter duration bonds will have less swings.
    Friday’s employment number indicated more jobs are created and the increased hiring for the holiday season will add to it too. If the Fed slows to 50 bps rate hike in December’s FOMC, that would still consider ok.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Well, we have 'Two for Tuesday' (FM radio); and a 'Warm for Wednesday' (Powell/Fed. statement). Warm and fuzzy feeling, for the most part; the Fed. rate increases may back down a tad. Then, 'Freaky Friday', from the jobs and wages reports. Too many new jobs and folks making too much via hourly wage. Damn, can't catch a break, eh? Speaking of breaks, these 'hotter' numbers may give more pause to the Fed and any notion about going easy on the rate increases and for how long. Sorry, companies and you worker bee folks; you're going to have to stop this economic expansion. We'll help you going forward, okay? Bond yields/prices hopped around a bit; with many bond areas giving the 'bird' to the FED, for the week in total. About midday Friday, bond yields dropped and resulting nice price gains came forth to support a direction for the week. As shown in the below list, the longer duration of IG bonds continues to provide the best performance. Those who have bonds in their investment mix now have more support in this area. The recent, apparent bottom in bond pricing from October 25 continues to find support from those levels.
    ALGO FED: Perhaps the FED should try operating their mandates via an ALGO program using 20 economic data points of their choice; to discover the results for managing the U.S. economy, in this manner.
    Several selected bond fund returns since October 25.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 28- December 2, 2022
    --- AGG = +1.5% / -11.2% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.22% / -1.4% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.47% / -3.8% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +1.2% / -8.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.8% / -12.8% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +2.65% / -9.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +1.2% / -3.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +6.8% / -25% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +4.3% / -26.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +6% / -33% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +6.5% / -34.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -8.2% / +68.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +12.5% / -65.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.56% / -12% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.2% / -9.1% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.9% / -15.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is stagnate for this past week, versus the past six months.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Hotmail emails archive to computer hard drive.
    I have an old MSN email account newer (5 years) Hotmail account. Both can be accessed on Hotmail.com.
    Approximately 3 years ago, I started to receive these extortion emails at my MSN email (I never had a problem with my Hotmail account). I changed my password and notified the FBI. These extortion emails lasted about 1 month.
    While I rarely use my MSN email, I do receive a considerable amount of spam. The nature of the spam leads me to believe that it is a function of the extortion emails. I guess "they" figured if they could not get money from me, they would be a royal pain in the a**. This problem did not infect my PC with a virus or malware. I think that I had Windows Defender back then and a few years ago I added the free versions of Malwarebytes, Glary Utilities, and CCleaner.