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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    Bond bottom, Oct. 25 ??? One calendar month, 23 trading days. Just the numbers. Global central bankers remain in group think mode hoping they can fix what, in many cases, could partially fix itself; via the consumer. Let us hope that central bank egos don't stand in the path of a positive economic direction, eventually.
    Eight random bond etf's returns for the past month, from the recent bottom (?).
    CHART
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 21- November 25, 2022
    --- AGG = +1.07% / -12.5% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.14% / -1.6% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.15% / -4.3% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.46% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.02% / -14.3% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.3% / -11.8% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +.58% / -4.65% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +4.35% / -29.9% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +3.3% / -29.3% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +4.65% / -36.8% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +5.1% / -38.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -6.2% / +83% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +9.8% / -69% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.08% / -13.4% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.05% / -10.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.85% / -16.6% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is slowing for this past week, versus the past six months.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Bruce Fund. BRUFX: holding lotsa cash
    Just a heads-up. My wife's rollover T-IRA is all in BRUFX. We are not unhappy. But I was a bit surprised to see them sitting on so much cash. Maybe they are smarter than me. THAT'S a sure bet. Perhaps markets ARE indeed headed for another leg downward in '23. Only 5+ percent of portfolio is in bonds right now.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/brufx/portfolio
  • Alexa, how did Amazon’s voice assistant rack up a $10bn loss?
    The tech giant’s flawed business model for its popular smart devices has cost the company a fortune and thousands of jobs
    A commentary by John Naughton, in The Guardian
    Following are edited excerpts from that commentary:
    Intrigued by an Ars Technica post about Amazon’s Alexa that suggested all was not well in the tech company’s division that looks after its smart home devices, I went rooting in a drawer where the Echo Dot I bought years ago had been gathering dust. Having found it, and set it up to join the upgraded wifi network that hadn’t existed when I first got it, I asked it a question: “Alexa, why are you such a loss-maker?” To which she calmly replied: “This might answer your question: mustard gas, also known as Lost, is manufactured by the United States.” At which point, I solemnly thanked her, pulled the power cable and returned her to the drawer, where she will continue to gather dust until I can think of an ecologically responsible way of recycling her.
    Initially, it looked like a shrewd beachhead for the invasion of our homes. Alexa became a kind of hub for other IoT (internet of things) gizmos – lights, thermostats, heaters, doorbells and so on. Clearly, other tech giants also thought it was significant – Apple, Google and Facebook raced to get their home hubs over our thresholds. And people seemed to like using Alexa: children loved conning her into saying stupid things, while their elders used her to set timers for cooking, compiling shopping lists, playing music, requesting definitions of words or information from Wikipedia and so on. But since it was of no real use to me, I switched it off and put it away, assuming that Amazon’s big bet had really paid off.
    How wrong can you be? “Amazon Alexa is a ‘colossal failure’,” ran Ars Technica’s headline, “on pace to lose $10bn this year.” It was picking up on a long piece by Business Insider reporting that during the first quarter of this year Amazon’s worldwide digital unit, which includes everything from the Echo smart speakers and Alexa voice technology to the Prime Video streaming service, had an operating loss of more than $3bn, the “vast majority” of which was accounted for by Alexa and related devices and was the largest among all of Amazon’s business units.
    So what went wrong? Basically, the business model underpinning Alexa failed to deliver. The company thought that the Echo device (which apparently was sold at cost) would lead people to buy more stuff on Amazon. And when more than 5m of the devices were sold in its first two years, that must have looked like a plausible idea, especially when it transpired Alexa was getting a billion interactions a week!
    Sadly, it seems that most of those “conversations” with the device were rather like mine had been: trivial and inconsequential. And, as time went on, the “smart assistants” offered by the other tech giants muscled in on the market. Alexa, with 71.6 million users, now occupies third place but even the thought that the other two are also losing money on their gizmos will not provide much consolation for the Alexa team as its unit is slimmed down.
    Amazon, which went on a hiring spree during the pandemic, is now, like all the big tech outfits, shedding jobs on an industrial scale; beginning this month, it plans to lay off 10,000 workers, quite a few of whom will probably be in its hardware division. So maybe the industry is about to discover that invasions – of homes as well as countries – don’t always work out as well as you hoped.
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    Improvements may be depreciated but land is never depreciated. Regardless of the business. A farmer may depreciate his silo but not his acreage. I imagine this distinction is for just the reason you describe - land tends to increase in value over time. Though improvements either require maintenance or deteriorate.
    From the IRS's FAQ on depreciation:
    Can I depreciate the cost of land?
    Land can never be depreciated. Since land cannot be depreciated, you need to allocate the original purchase price between land and building. You can use the property tax assessor's values to compute a ratio of the value of the land to the building.
    Example:
    Ryan bought an office building for $100,000. The property tax statement shows:
    Improvements $60,000 75%
    Land                $20,000 25%
    Total Value      $80,000 100%
    Multiply the purchase price ($100,000) by 25% to get a land value of $25,000. You can depreciate your $75,000 basis in the building using the mid-month MACRS tables
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-regs/depreciation_faqs_v2.pdf
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    Funds from operation (FFO) is a measure of cash flow that is calculated simply by taking net income and "backing out" depreciation and amortization. That intuitively makes sense in terms of cash, since depreciation is a bookkeeping figure, not "real" cash that is flowing out of a business' bank account.
    Many types of businesses present a non-GAAP (and non-standardized) EBITDA figure to give a "truer" (read: more favorable) picture of income. This is net income after backing out depreciation, amortization, interest and taxes.
    Even though EBITDA is focused on income and FFO is focused on cash flow, they look very similar. That's especially true in real estate where depreciation and amortization can constitute the vast majority of tweaks. So if it helps, think of FFO as income without accounting "tricks".
    You can see how massive an impact depreciation and amortization have. For PSTL in the third quarter:
    net income =     $1,150K
    deprec,amort = $4,616K
    FFO =               $5,766K
    https://investor.postalrealtytrust.com/Investors/news/news-details/2022/Postal-Realty-Trust-Inc.-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results/default.aspx
    M* says that free cash flow over trailing twelve months was 6.88x net income. (That's a bit higher than the 5x for the third quarter.) Take the 94% payout based on cash flow and multiply by 6.88, and you get roughly the 653.57% payout ratio that M* reports. The small difference is likely due to rounding (95% x 6.88 = 653.6).
    Given this huge difference between net income and payouts, one might think that the divs can't all be income. And one would be right. Over the past year, about a third of the divs represented return of capital (lowering your cost basis). I'm not going to venture a guess as to how one comes up with that 1/3 figure; I'm just reporting it from the PSTL filings:
    https://s29.q4cdn.com/654642337/files/doc_downloads/dividend-tax-information/Dividend-Tax-Treatment-of-2021.pdf
    https://s29.q4cdn.com/654642337/files/doc_downloads/dividend-tax-information/Form-8937-2021.pdf (see line 15 for adjustment to cost basis)
    https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/income/investments/nondividend-distributions/
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    Thanks for that clarification @stayCalm. Can you determine if the 11/15 distribution of 98 cents is the last one for 2022? It seems that the fund is not on a quarterly distribution schedule.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 25th
    This week’s guest has long been an avowed enemy of inflation and an outspoken critic of the Fed’s inflation-boosting policies. How is he feeling now? Grant will discuss the Fed’s about-face on inflation, the battle it faces to bring it under control, the implications for financial markets, and two investment ideas for this new investment era.


    and listen to:

  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    25 nov, '22. not the standard type of episode. holiday edition. the last several minutes was all recycled, reruns.
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    REITs don’t (generally I suppose) use GAAP earnings to determine their payouts/quarter successes, etc. Rather, they use FFO/AFFO (Funds From Operation/Adjusted FFO). And per their press release, they achieved 25 cent FFO, and distributed a 23.5 cent distribution. So not quite 100% payout ratio.
    YBB will probably chime in with a more-detailed and better written explanation lol (NOT sarcasm! :)
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    @BenWP
    SVARX has a high turnover and changes allocations aggressively. This fund makes big bets with high conviction. It can also hold short positions and derivatives.
    Long term performance for a bond only fund is impressive. Inception is 2013 and its lowest 3Y performance is 15% (this should obviously be aggregate and not annualized)
    https://thespectrumfunds.com/svarx/
  • AXS 2X Innovation ETF reverse stock split
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834422022658/fp0080955-1_497.htm
    Excerpt:
    After the close of trading on the Nasdaq (the “Exchange”) on or about November 30, 2022, the Fund will affect a 1-for-5 reverse split of its issued and outstanding shares. Shares of the Fund will begin trading on the Exchange on a split-adjusted basis on or about December 1, 2022.
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    I already have several treasury ladders and will add more after Dec’s rate hike at auction. My only hesitation on 2 yr or longer notes is the inverted yield curve and their yields are lowered than those of 26 week and 52 week T bills.
  • "Analysis" or sales pitch? PSTL
    https://talkmarkets.com/content/real-estate--reits/pstl-the-dividend-company-no-one-is-paying-attention-to?post=376242
    Very brief, succinct. I did not know that this REIT (PSTL) was so young. Started operations just in 2019.
    Div. pay-out ratio = 96%? That's a red flag, eh? But Morningstar has a crazy number there: pay-out ratio of 653.57. WTF?
    I own this beast, by the way. Plodding upward since I bought. My own cost basis is still--- barely--- in the red.
    https://www.stockrover.com/research/insight/summary/quotes/PSTL
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Added 595017bc7 microchips tech bond for mama om acct ytm 6.2% due 2024 A- rated
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    If you have new money to deploy, another 13- , 26- , 52- wk T-Bill auctions are near the month end, November 28/29 (Mon/Tue) (orders can be entered now), and then again on December 27 (Tue).
    If want to extend maturity, may be use 2-yr T-Bill/Note ladder: 26-wk, 52-wk T-Bills; 18-mo (no auction; buy in secondary market)), 2-yr (auction December 27) T-Notes.
    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
  • Latest memo from Howard Marks.
    In order to try and find those elusive asymmetrical managers, I set up multisearch to screen for funds with alphas =>0, top rating for max draw down, and top rating for max upside. I set the fund age to five years to include the best of times, and the worst of times.
    Then to the display columns I added alpha, and the up-down numbers. Out of curiosity I added R vs SP500. And I always add the ulcer index column to cover my IRA.
    I didn't find any G managers. But you might find someone that interests you
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    Is there good reasons to go longer duration treasury beyond 52 weeks, in light of the current yield curve?
    Good question, @Sven: getting the best yield even if shorter term, vs. maybe locking in a decent yield, if not the highest, for longer, vs. saving powder for bond funds. December may be an important month in that calculation. Some of each of those might be a good answer.