Renewable energy is the cover story in the current Barron's. LINK1 LINK2
COVER STORY, “Clean Energy’s Future Has Arrived/6 Stocks to Play the Rush for Renewable ENERGY”. AES, BE, FCX, LG Energy (S Korea), PLUG, RUN, etc; ETF TAN
TRANSITION from wood to coal took200 years, from coal to oil 100 years, but that from fossil fuels to RENEWABLES (solar, wind, batteries, hydrogen) to be in only a few years? Global renewable power was 29% in 2020, and by 2030, may be 60% in Europe, 38% in the US, 38% in China. Both the US and Europe, each, are adding 30 GW of renewable power capacity now and that may be 80 GW/yr by 2030. There are transition TAX CREDITS/INCENTIVES everywhere. Russia-Ukraine war has set back some current efforts (coal has come back and natural-gas is scarce) but has accelerated the push for future transitions. Europe has committed $200 billion, the US Inflation Reduction Act will have $370 billion, and private investments will kick in $1.2 trillion. This may be the end of boom-and-bust energy cycles. Many countries have NET-ZERO carbon emission goals by 2050+. However, be very selective on companies in the renewable energy area. Besides the companies mentioned earlier, other beneficiaries may include VWDRY, NLLSF, XOM, CVX (old energy companies won’t be sitting still).

There is an interview in the current Barron's from a China fan, LINK1 LINK2
Virginie MAISONNEUVE, Allianz Global. An interview focused on China (VM has followed China since the age of 5, has degree in Mandarin, has worked in China, specializes in China ESG). China-Taiwan conflict is not in anybody’s interest. The US-China trade war was misplaced by the US concerns. Treat China as a separate asset class, not just a part of the EMs. China is often out of sync with the others, so that provides important diversification benefit. China offers opportunities in innovative/disruptive techs, biotech, digitization. Chinese equities are volatile but attractive on earnings and valuations. Her big themes include quality-value (i.e. not deep-value), quality-growth, high-impact global themes (energy, food, water, AI, cybersecurity), risk control with ESG (her “new normal” despite temporary criticisms/doubts now).

I presume you read through this recent thread.
What is different about a sector "bet" versus a single stock position?
MFO, August 9

@hank, the threatened penalty for keeping VG mutual fund account is $20/yr/fund holding. So, for someone holding 5 VG funds in an account, it is $20 x 5 = $100/yr for that account. Double that if both husband and wife have VG accounts. We actually have 5 distinct VG accounts (4 IRAs, 1 trust) and on us alone, VG could get a windfall (-:).
In another forum, people also got notices to switch to electronic statements to avoid $20 annual fee. VG uses a householding system and the previous threshold to avoid that fee was $50K in household assets, but it was suddenly bumped up to cool $1 million. The deadline for that is also 9/30/22.

A family member has had some of her IRA invested in some Vanguard mutual funds for decades. She has been taking RMDs from these investments for some time. That all has worked smoothly. The initial investment(s) predated the existence of Vanguard's brokerage. Last week she received an email from Vanguard urging her to "transition" (is that really a verb?) her mutual fund accounts to the VBA platform or face the consequences. VBA turns out to stand for Vanguard Brokerage Account, not Very Bad Arrangement. The consequences are a yearly fee of $20 and a $60 penalty.
Well, OK, she has no need for a brokerage but the method is said to be simple. Click right there in the email message, follow the directions that will appear as a website window opens and it will all be done in a few minutes. And if there's a problem (why are they anticipating problems ?) just phone this number. She clicked. She followed the directions. A few minutes later a message appeared saying it was all accomplished; transition complete. Next day she logged into her account and there appeared not one but two messages urging her to "transition" as soon as possible.
Together we phoned the number. The recorded voice told us everyone was busy but if we leave a phone number we'll be phoned back in a few minutes. We did and we did receive a call soon after. The Vanguard feller was intelligent and competent. I received permission to join the conversation and he said he'd complete the process. It didn't work for him either. He said that in that case he would create a new account and put everything there and all would be well. He couldn't do it. The computer system told him there was nothing in her account eligible for transition. He told us he'd look into it and phone us back the next day. That was 5 days ago. He did not phone. There is no change in her account and no apparent transition.
Vanguard is threatening fines and fees if customers don't comply with a system that does not work. I suggested to the Vanguard agent that perhaps the system was overloaded and it would take time to process the transition. He said that was possible but he just did not know what was wrong. I guess he still doesn't know.
There are people here at MFO who are savvy and well-informed. Does someone have an idea what might be going on?

There was a post at M* Discussions (long thread, post# 326, warning - needs lot of scrolling) yesterday that offered a ray of hope. https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000066YnacCAC/does-anyone-else-feel-like-the-new-morningstar-investor-is-a-huge-downgrade-compared-with-the-legacy-portfolio-manager
"Bill.Baranyk (Employee)
21 hours ago
Hello Investor subscriber,
We're continuing to receive feedback from subscribers on the Investor experience, with an emphasis on the status of missing or incomplete features.
We take feedback seriously and want to show how we’re using it to improve Investor. So, we’d like to lay out what you can expect over the next six to nine months.
The status of legacy Portfolio Manager
Legacy Portfolio Manager will not be retired until the features in Investor's Portfolio help you accomplish the same tasks as legacy: monitoring your portfolio with relevant data in customizable views, understanding investment performance, and reviewing Portfolio X-Ray analysis on your holdings. Our goal is to add features to Portfolio that support those tasks by the end of 2022.
As we continue to build and release, you’ll see similar features to those in legacy, but you’ll also see new additions that improve how you research, analyze, and monitor investments.
But rest assured: Legacy will not be retired until all those features are successfully up and running in Investor. We’ll communicate our progress along the way, and if we aren’t on track to hit our goal, legacy will remain until we are.
Custom views
Custom views are coming to Investor, and they’ll be similar to the My Views feature in legacy Portfolio. The launch of views will come in phases, with the first phase rolling out in early September 2022. This launch will include an improved process for creating, editing, and sorting custom views and around 80 additional data points to work with.
The remaining phases will roll out throughout the rest of the year and will include expanded data points and more ways to control how you view information within tables. [We’re also determining the best way to bring over custom views you’ve already created in legacy Portfolio Manager.]
We’ll notify you as each phase launches.
Performance tracking
In the fall, we’ll add performance tracking to Investor for portfolios that have manually added purchases/sales. This includes both data and comparisons to similar benchmarks. Watchlists in Investor will not include functionality for performance tracking.
Investor will continue to evolve with the needs of our subscribers, so we’ll keep you informed as updates come. This approach may be a bit different than what you’ve experienced with Premium. It’s all in service of getting the right features into your hands, so you can focus on your investment goals.
We can’t wait for you to see what’s in store over the coming weeks and months.
Happy investing,
The Morningstar Investor team"

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good.

18% from today would make it approx 40% from June bottom. That is huge. If so, I could end up being one of the losers because today I sold all that I bought in 2022 and sitting in more than 40% cash. Still YTD portfolio loss - there was so much institutional pessimism about the 2022 swoon that I was not aggressive in buying in June. I think it was just a day or two around June 15, BoA revised their prognosis and said they see S&P 500 bottoming at near 3,000 with the year end target of 3,400.
P.S.: My sell is not based on any technical analysis, except that we are still in a Fed tightening cycle. S&P 500 is only 11% below all time high while interest rates across the curve are much higher in a short period of time. It just felt right to sell. Of course, the back to school retail sales could prompt retailers to give good guidance next week, giving more reasons for the market to keep going up.

Consider them in light of the broad net-zero targets globally. Several developed countries have net-zero target as 2050, China 2060, India 2070. This phased approach by VESGX seems sensible, and a bit on the aggressive side.

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good. Study done by Ryan Detrick.

Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
Thanks.

Vanguard Global ESG Select Stock Fund (VESGX) came to mind after viewing the clean/renewable ETFs thread. Wellington Management is the advisor for VESGX.
The fund has performed well since its 2019 inception but this is a short evaluation period.
It's unclear to me how selecting securities based on net zero targets will affect investment performance.
Any thoughts?
"Specifically, the advisor seeks to invest approximately 65% of the Fund’s assets
in companies with net zero science-based targets by 2030 and approximately
90% of the Fund’s assets in companies with net zero science-based targets by
2040, with the ultimate goal of investing 100% of the Fund’s assets in
companies that have reached net zero by 2050. The advisor reserves the right to
deviate from these targets without notice."

Over the past six weeks it has been one after another breadth, volume and assorted momentum indicators kick in on the buy side saying the bear is dead. Today yet another one from Seth Gordon on Twitter. 90% of the S@P stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. Since 2003 has occurred 14 times with a positivity rate of 94% and an average 12 month S@P return of 18%

What is the significance of a new high for the S&P 500's cumulative A/D line?
Historically, has this proven to be a reliable indicator of future performance?

SP500 cumulative A/D line is at a new high, https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1558147852202917891

It is like the January-effect playing in Summer. Use anything SC, and IWM, IWO would be fine too.
Major indexes from 6/16/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p16477435900

Strategic Petroleum Reserve
From: Fossil Energy and Carbon Management
Excerpts from that site:

SPR Quick Facts
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a U.S. Government complex of four sites with deep underground storage caverns created in salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.
Highest inventory - The SPR was filled to its then 727 million barrel authorized storage capacity on December 27, 2009; the inventory of 726.6 million barrels was the highest ever held in the SPR.
Previous Inventory Milestones
2008. Prior to Hurricane Gustav coming ashore on September 1, 2008, the SPR had reached 707.21 million barrels, the highest level ever held up until that date. A series of emergency exchanges conducted after Hurricane Gustav, followed shortly thereafter by Hurricane Ike, reduced the level by 5.4 million barrels.
2005. Prior to the 2008 hurricane releases, the former record had been reached in late August 2005, just days before Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina emergency releases of both crude oil sales and exchanges (loans) totaled 20.8 million barrels.
1977. First oil was delivered to the newly constructed SPR, 412,000 barrels of light sweet crude.
Current authorized storage capacity - 714 million barrels
Fill status - The SPR completed fill on December 27, 2009 with a cargo that arrived and began to unload on Christmas Day. The cargo was 493,000 barrels of Saharan Blend, a light sweet crude that was delivered to the Bryan Mound site. A sale and drawdown in 2011 reduced the inventory to 695.9 million barrels.
Current days of import protection in SPR - At the end of CY 2021 (as of December 31, 2021), the SPR’s crude oil inventory was 594.7 MMbbl. This is equivalent to approximately 1,206 days of supply of total U.S. petroleum net imports.
International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks). In past years, the United States has met its commitment with a combination of SPR stocks and industry stocks. The days of import protection may vary based on actual net U.S. petroleum imports and the inventory level of the SPR.
Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $29.70 per barrel

Drawdown Capability
Maximum nominal drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
Investment to date - About $25.7 billion ($5 billion for facilities; $20.7 billion for crude oil).

This US SPR status from Twitter is from June and you may look for updated data from the IEA. There was also some recent news on changing the law on SPR buys from the current bids-system to buying in the futures markets or with forward-contracts, as appropriate. Realize that the SPR activities are not for profits but to stabilize the US oil supply-demand and prices.
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1539195742753116160

Hi guys,
So the strategic oil reserve is being taped 1 mil a day for 90 days. So some questions here....hope you can help. In no special order.....after a few longnecks, what's the point? lol.....
1. How much can be drawn down before you have to stop?
2. How much is in the reserve?
3. I have heard that Australia and Britain also have oil in there. Are there more countries that have some in there?
4. How long until you must replace the oil?
5. How?....Is it in the budget or do you just print more money?
6. Where does the oil come from: OPEC or U.S.?
7. How often can we do this? Every year?
8. Who is in charge of it? the President, or others also?
9. Is it US refined and kept in the U.S.?
10. Is it kept safe, say, like Fort Knox? Is it on military ground---no terrorists?
Just some thoughts and thanks in advance for your help.
God bless
the Pudd

M* JR compares I-Bonds and 5-Yr TIPS with T-Bills/Notes and reaches favorable conclusions under title, I-Bonds Forever? (Well, no, but still good).
He used 2 long-term scenarios: 1st, since 09/1998 (I-Bond inception) and 2nd, since 01/1995 (when 5-yr TIPS issuance resumed).
For I-Bonds, he used 2 assumptions - the initial 3.4% fixed/base rate and 0% fixed/base rate (to entirely remove that effect). So, this 2nd scenario only captured the CPI effect and actual I-Bond buyers did better than that bottom line.
Unsurprisingly, his conclusions were that that the initial fixed/base rate was a give-away for then (1998) new I-Bonds and those did the best. But 0% I-Bonds also kept up with alternatives. He cautions about their limitations (annual limit, non-tradability) and to keep future expectations reasonable. But not to pass up a good deal, he has just now bought I-Bonds for both his wife and him. Welcome to the club JR!
As has been noted here, these conclusions are not surprising because I-Bonds, and 5-yr TIPS held to maturity, have kept up with $$CPI.
www.morningstar.com/articles/1108848/i-bonds-forever
LINK

Really appreciate your opinion. Market rallied recently from softer July CPI number, 8.5% versus June’s 9.1%. Small additions, but nothing radical.