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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    There is a filing for several active Price ETFs, including TCAF (although 80%+ equity; ER 0.31% only) to be managed by Giroux (PRWCX). Filing also includes several other active ETFs.
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177323000901/c485bpos.htm
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Multiply you guys x 10 to the umpteenth and you got Silicon Valley Bank.
    Yup, that's what happened.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I’ve played around a bit with CCOR over the past year or two. Small amounts. Currently out. From what I’ve read it buys / sells deep in the money options with about 10% of assets and so provides a strong hedge on big down days. For whatever reason, that wasn’t the case today, as it fell 0.72% . A guess is that the speed and suddenness with which the markets turned upside down prevented it from working its magic. I still think it’s a good defensive fund - but one needs to find the right role for it inside a diverse portfolio.
    Re: CCOR - ”Options are then used to control portfolio volatility and to maintain cash flows. As a hedge, the fund may sell S&P 500 calls to finance the purchase of S&P 500 puts. This strategy may cause the fund to give up some upside potential in exchange for downside protection. Managers may utilize other option strategies like spreads for hedging and income generation as well.” - Source
  • T. Rowe Price New Horizons and Emerging Markets Stock Funds reopening to new investors
    Email from T Rowe Price concerning the reopening:
    View in browser
    T. Rowe Price Log in to your account T. Rowe Price
    Dear Investor,
    Fund Name Ticker CUSIP
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund – Investor Class PRMSX 77956H864
    T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund – I Class PRZIX 77956H484
    T. Rowe Price Institutional Emerging Markets Equity Fund IEMFX 74144Q203
    T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund – Investor Class PRNHX 779562107
    T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund – I Class PRJIX 779562206
    We are writing to inform you that effective April 26, 2023, we are removing the purchase restrictions on the Emerging Markets Stock Fund, Institutional Emerging Markets Equity Fund, and New Horizons Fund.
    These funds have been restricted to all investors due to capacity constraints. At that time, we were concerned that continued significant cash inflows would overwhelm the portfolio manager’s ability to invest prudently. This change now allows investors who trade directly with T. Rowe Price to open new accounts in the funds.
    Since that time, market conditions have changed, and overall assets under management have decreased. Following a thorough review of net flows and other factors related to the potential capacity of the strategy, we believe we can accommodate controlled asset growth over time.
    Thank you for your continued business and partnership with T. Rowe Price. If you have any questions regarding this matter, please feel free to reach out to us.
    Download a prospectus for the T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Fund, the T. Rowe Price Institutional Emerging Markets Equity Fund and the T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.
    All funds are subject to market risk, including the potential loss of principal.
    This communication does not undertake to give investment advice in a fiduciary capacity. T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services.
    This email may be considered advertising under federal law.
    T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Unless you bought at the peak of CCOR's performance late last year as David described, it has proven generally more defensive than DSTL, up 2.5% in 2022 overall while DSTL was down 10.6%. Yet no question, CCOR is struggling this year. But these two funds seem quite different in their strategies.
  • Be thankful you didn’t retire on 1/1/2022.
    Let’s say one retired on 1/1/2022 with 1m investable in tax deferrred accounts. Not yet doing RMD. Let’s say you had no imagination and did 50% SPY and 50% AGG. Let’s say you reinvested your Divs and withdrew 4% annually. According to Portfolio Visualizer by the end of Feb. 23 you would now be sitting on $827,299. Yuuup. That is the classic SORR. Of course nobody here retired at the start of 2022 and nobody here would invest that way. So let’s all be thankful.
  • Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers
    These folks are a tough spot on whether to deal with the inflation while facing with the bank mess ant the same time. Clearly something broke. Even with this 25 bps rate hike, the market sold off for 1%. Guess Powell chose inflation over bank crisis. Will watch Powell speech this evening. Tomorrow will be interesting.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Multiply you guys x 10 to the umpteenth and you got Silicon Valley Bank.
  • Fed Watch

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve extended its year-long fight against high inflation Wednesday by raising its key interest rate by a quarter-point despite concerns that higher borrowing rates could worsen the turmoil that has gripped the banking system.
    “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient,” the Fed said in a statement after its latest policy meeting ended. At the same time, the Fed warned that the financial upheaval stemming from the collapse of two major banks is “likely to result in tighter credit conditions” and “weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.”
    The central bank also signaled that it’s likely nearing the end of its aggressive streak of rate hikes. In its statement, it removed language that had previously said it would keep raising rates at upcoming meetings. The statement now says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” — a weaker commitment to future hikes.
    The Fed included some language that indicated its inflation fight remains far from complete. It noted that hiring is “running at a robust pace” and “inflation remains elevated.” It removed a phrase, “inflation has eased somewhat,” that it had included in its statement in February.
    Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell said, “The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”
    The latest rate hike suggests that Powell is confident that the Fed can manage a dual challenge: Cool still-high inflation through higher loan rates while defusing turmoil in the banking sector through emergency lending programs and the Biden administration’s decision to cover uninsured deposits at the two failed banks.
    The central bank’s benchmark short-term rate has now reached its highest level in 16 years. The new level will likely lead to higher costs for many loans, from mortgages and auto purchases to credit cards and corporate borrowing. The succession of Fed rate hikes have also heightened the risk of a recession.
    The troubles that suddenly erupted in the banking sector two weeks ago likely led to the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter-point rather than a half-point. Some economists have cautioned that even a modest quarter-point rise in the Fed’s key rate, on top of its previous hikes, could imperil weaker banks whose nervous customers may decide to withdraw significant deposits.
    The above was excerpted from a current Associated Press article, and has been edited for brevity.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I would say all bonds and bond funds are affected by duration, but if you hold an individual bond to maturity you don't notice it. If you choose to sell that 5-year TIPS in a rising rate environment prior to maturity, you would realize losses from the duration impact. As for taxes, my impression is the treatment and phantom-income like tax adjustments is the same for individual TIPS as for TIPS funds. You pay taxes on the inflation adjustment with an individual bond even though you don't receive it as income:
    https://cpapracticeadvisor.com/2022/04/07/the-tax-tips-about-tips-treasury-inflation-protection-securities/49016/
    This is why the TIPS funds pay out the inflation adjustments because they are a taxable event and treated by the IRS as income. If anything, I'd rather have the payout in hand from the funds to help pay the taxes. Interestingly, the same is not true for I Savings bonds. The income is completely deferred tax wise.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    If the objective is to keep up with inflation, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity will do that. Longer-term TIPS will too, but it may be harder to hold them maturity. TIPS funds on the other hand are affected by duration and non-maturity; they are also required to distribute inflation-adjustment annually, whether earned or not, inflows or not.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p91391514086
  • Sell all bond funds?
    If you look at a fund's average duration, theoretically for every 1 year of duration, the fund should fall one percentage point for every one percentage point increase in interest rates. So, if a fund has a duration of six years, and rates rise from 0% to 4%, the fund's bond portfolio should fall 24%, maybe 20% overall if you factor in the yield. I think most people just aren't used to a rising rate environment. Bond investors have just had it good for so long, they didn't realize the risks. I would add that if the Fed had raised rates more gradually, funds would've had more time to adapt to the new environment, but Fed Chair Powell wanted to send consumers and labor a message by raising rates quickly and aggressively: "I'll teach you not to ask for higher wages and buy stuff!" Now imagine you're a certain California bank making highly leveraged bets on the same bonds in your fund portfolios you thought were safe.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I tend to agree with Tarwheel in that I am astonished how poorly "go anywhere" bond funds have done recently. It seems obvious that once the Fed started raising rates and inflation was high any duration over 1 or 2 was going to kill your NAV. I have a hard time buying funds that are committed, by their prospectus or "mandate" to do things that seem a bad idea
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Who knows? Not the sharpest knife in the bond deck here. But I have a lot more bonds (thru funds) than cash. If short or intermediate duration bonds, they may possibly do better than cash over time without a whole lot of duration risk. Don’t overlook some capital appreciation if rates fall. Bonds / bond funds do move around in value day to day, so having some might temper portfolio volatility more than cash would if striving for balance. But it’s a close call.
    I like global bonds as a hedge against a falling dollar. I’ve been moving my small bit of cash in and out of a GNMA etf, buying in at near 4% on the 10 year and unloading them when the 10-year nears 3.5%. So I’m currently out with the 10 year around 3.6%. That game will work until it doesn’t. Likely, interest rates are headed higher over the long term - which would kill that goose.
    There’s no certainty any of the above will work out as planned. I usually operate differently than most here. So realize cash has been the “flavor of the month” for quite a few months now. The rates are currently attractive. Do I want to tear apart a balanced portfolio to throw a bunch into cash? No.
    (PS - I don’t do TIPS. Others can debate the merits. I notice some added commentary below.)
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Not a bad strategy, but it’s a mistake to compare past performance to future expectations as in “I don’t own a single bond fund that can come close to that over the past five years and only one that tops that over 10 years.” It’s the next five- and ten-years that matter, not the last ten. Moreover, if you had held a CD 10 years ago until today, you wouldn’t have received 5.34% annualized either, closer to zero I bet as much of that period rates were considerably lower. So, you must look at the forward yield and credit quality of bonds today and compare them to the forward yield and credit quality of CDs with comparable maturities. I also think the fact that the CDs you mentioned are callable is problematic. If rates go lower, your yield disappears.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    @day1queen Your email address and your name do not match up with the name that you provided me. This is a private board and we take security seriously since we have all be victims of a crime. Right now, I do not feel comfortable granting you access. Teresa