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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    FD:
    From the start I said that without goals age and more, no way to answer this.
    Gary:
    The question was simply "how would YOU invest it NOW"...
    @Gary1952 +++ , I agree.
    Surely, we all at least know our age :) Honestly, I saw this as just a fun exercise to throw out different ideas or thoughts. Sounds like most took it that way.
    We need some fun once in a while. And thinking about having an extra $100k all of a sudden is fun.
    Gary1952 in Other Investing
  • M* is doing click-bait crap, now.
    Our local library card gives us full and free access to M* via a log on to the internet from anywhere, with no ads or any other issues to deal with. It is a great service I have used for years.
    [snip]

    My local library provides free access to Morningstar Investment Research Center (MIRC).
    MIRC includes M* articles and videos, fund analyst reports, Portfolio X-Ray,
    newsletters (e.g., FundInvestor, ETFInvestor), and various tools.
    Like you, I've also used this great service for years.
    MIRC will be replaced with an
    "enhanced database experience coming in September."
    "enhanced." LOL LOL LOL. I can't wait.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Jeremy Grantham with David Rubenstein / September 2023
    See my original comment : “Linked solely for those who might be interested in Grantham’s latest views.”
    If the shoe doesn’t fit, don’t wear it.
    Don’t tell me there’s some restriction here against posting out-of-favor / unpopular / or recently unprofitable investment opinion?
    Bloomberg? They are what they are. Lots to criticize there.
    BTW - Did you notice the 18% drop in the S&P last year? I think we’re in agreement that that was only a minor speed-bump in the overall scheme of things. But to many here it was earth-shaking. Surely you’ve noticed the fervent interest now in T-Bills / CDs and a loss of appetite for equities? I’d guess 2 out of 3 investment posts now are on the subject of cash or cash equivalents. In a sense, these investors are singing Grantham’s song.
    Grantham’s bearish equity call (huge U.S. bubble) may be completely bass-ackwards … And yet you posted a month ago (August 2): “I’ve been loading up on CDs and treasuries, with ladders extending out five years in my IRAs and three years in taxable savings. I don’t care if interest rates rise further as I’m happy to be earning better than 5% on all these cash investments.”
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/166524/#Comment_166524
    hank in Other Investing
  • lol comment on stock pricing
    And to answer your specific questions, I expect he believes most of those things, meaning you have covered most of the factors. Maybe not a 'safe haven', though; to return to where I began, the last year it's swung from 124 to just under 200! It is sort of a steady Eddy, still --- with enough time. (Further giving the lie to the assertion about how its reality has been "impossible.")
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Other Investing
  • lol comment on stock pricing
    I believe it was just a reaction to an assertion that is clearly wrong and has been proved wrong for decades if not longer. In other words the second sentence quoted is nuts nonsense and probably could have been written about Apple at any point in this century. The word impossible, as he notes.
    But nothing necessarily to do with Apple, his interest in the company aside.
    I was at a party recently where someone was saying he had concluded that his late father had been a "severe alcoholic" most of his adult life. A sympathetic physician asked how old the man was when he died. 91 was the answer. The doc said, "Not to quibble, but he could not be quite as you describe; such drinkers never live that long, by definition." Fortunately the discussion stayed thoughtful and did not turn into hairsplitting over degrees of alcohol-use disorder yada yada. But the general point did strike me that if your father lives to 91 you are advised to aim for care in discussing his health. Same with "It’s impossible to expect exceptional gains when ...." As Galileo possibly did not say, "Eppur si muove."
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Other Investing
  • lol comment on stock pricing
    Not sure how to interpret your son's reply d moran...Curious if your son believes this is a growth story due to its brand strength and huge cash reserve which can buy new tech start ups or invent a new space, growth in stock price due to it being a large position in index funds due to constant 401k fund flows, a utility play steady eddy with huge eco system and installed base, safer then investing in tbills (not joking here), or just a safe haven to park a chunk of cash? Fwiw, I have no position and own no Apple products. Android and Mr softie for me....silly me!
    Baseball_Fan in Other Investing
  • lol comment on stock pricing
    From the September MFO Commentary:
    By recent count, 1020 funds and 590 ETFs own Apple stock. It’s impossible to expect exceptional gains when a thousand analysts are dissecting, and a thousand managers are bidding upon, the same stock.
    I sent this assertion to one of my kids, a consultant who's been following and analyzing Apple since before his MBA days two decades ago. His quick reply:
    " Ha! 'Impossible'! "
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Does it matter if $100k is a substantial sum or not? The question was simply "how would YOU invest it NOW". A very simple English language question.
    That’s a bit harsh towards some of my colleagues here. But, as you like it. Re: “NOW” - Be aware BBF posted on Labor Day. Perhaps unaware U.S. markets were closed? I’ve substituted the earliest possible date / time to invest designated sum.
    Date: Tuesday, September 5, 2023
    Time: 9:30 AM EDT
    Amount: $100,000.00
    How I’d invest it “NOW” …
    - U.S. Equities: $31,853.65
    - Diverse Fixed Income (hedged, market neutral, global): $30,997.63
    - Non-U.S. Equities: $17,148.15
    - Short-Term High Yield Bond: $8,676.10
    - Money Market Fund: $6,100.37
    - Precious Metals Fund: $5,224.10
    hank in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    FD:
    From the start I said that without goals age and more, no way to answer this.
    Gary:
    The question was simply "how would YOU invest it NOW"...
    @Gary1952 +++ , I agree.
    Surely, we all at least know our age :) Honestly, I saw this as just a fun exercise to throw out different ideas or thoughts. Sounds like most took it that way.
    MikeM MikeM in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Does it matter if $100k is a substantial sum or not? The question was simply "how would YOU invest it NOW". A very simple English language question. The question wasn't how would you invest it for someone else. If you don't know and understand your investing goals or portfolio, I guess it's a trick question.
    Gary1952 in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Great discussion. Like FD, I focus on the total portfolio.. Sure, it can be modified as various circumstances change. But I’ve never thought the amount invested mattered much if you have a model portfolio in place.
    So whether I had $50,000, $500,000 or $1,000,000 + to invest I’d go with the model. The raw totals might be different, but on a pie-chart a 5% investment in GM displays as 5% regardless of dollar value. And your portfolio should react pretty much the same way day to day..
    There would be intervening factors:
    - With very small amounts it may be hard to stay as diversified as your model dictates due to fund minimums, etc
    - With larger sums you save on expenses and should earn a better return.
    - Taxation becomes a real issue if you are currently mainly in IRA / Tax deferred investments and you suddenly come into money that isn’t sheltered. But there are various ways to deal with that.
    - Buffet has commented that it’s much harder to invest very large sums. He claims he could earn a much greater return investing a small sum. One reason is that with a vast sum invested every buy or sell order you enter tends to drive prices in the opposite direction than you want.
    hank in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    All valid points.... when I posted I was looking for how some would allocate their investments, how cautious they would be right now, would they hedge, looking for some creative ideas...the expensive watches was interesting and the stock of a Japanese auto parts mfg was as well....
    By kicks and giggles I was recognizing that most everyone has a different viewpoint and no one should take any posting as a recommendation or advice, maybe learn of a new fund that piques an interest. Sometimes I believe we take things a little to seriously on this board whereas if we were sitting in a backyard with a few soda pops instead of getting our dander up with some postings we'd be laughing and enjoying our different perspectives.
    Btw, my perspective is that even if you have a $10 million net worth, a hundred grand is still a large sum of monies..... I'm fairly certain we would all agree with that
    Baseball_Fan in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    From the start I said that without goals age and more, no way to answer this.
    [snip]
    The OP asked where you would invest $100K right now - there was no additional criteria.
    Of course, answers will vary depending on an investor's own circumstances.
    You and I would invest $100K much differently and that's perfectly fine.
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @FD1000 - I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that for most people who visit this site $100K 'IS' a substantial sum of money. Of course I have little to base that on as I have no data to support it. I don't know the financial sums MFO visitors possess. The remainder of your comment is fine.
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    From the start I said that without goals age and more, no way to answer this.
    In most cases, another $100K isn't big enough to change someone portfolio asset allocation.
    A lot more interesting is what would you do with a new $500K to a million. My answer, I wouldn't change a thing with my portfolio.
    FD1000 in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    hank, I was not criticizing you, or have any upset with you. For me the thread title was, "How Would You Invest $100,000 right now". I confess I don't know what was meant by the phrase of "kicks, giggles, and ideas", so I just focused on how I would invest $100k right now.
    dtconroe in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    Why, oh why did I not buy Apple at $140 only a little while ago
    Hold on....you may get another chance.
    Gary1952 in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @dtconroe - Thanks for the rebuttal. I never give specific recommendations or even share my own specific investments (unless they come up in the context of a particular fund’s discussion). I hope that does not exclude me from making broader observations about investing on this thread started by @Baseball_Fan. I do think it’s for the person who initiates a thread to set the tone and pull people back into line who fall out of step. BF’s opening line - “For kicks and giggles and ideas ” leaves me to believe he is willing to allow a wide latitude in thread content and some occasional humor or straying afield.
    What would I do with another $100,000? Tax considerations might have some bearing on how it is invested. But, in general, I’d simply add it to my existing diversified portfolio. That’s what I’ve always done with windfalls. I’m about 49% in equities, 30% in various fixed income products, 15% cash equivalents and 5+% precious metals. That’s mainly through mutual funds, ETF’s and CEFs. Also own 2 individual stocks @ 5% of portfolio each.
    I attempted to support the case for going all to cash and intended to praise those who invest that way. In no way would I discourage such an investment approach. The one proviso is that I think it is unwise to move back and forth between completely different approaches based on the latest 6-months’ market action. Selling risk assets low and than rebuying them higher a year out when markets have “recovered” is not a viable long term plan ISTM. As you have long been known here for your expertise in and affinity for fixed income investing, I don’t understand the umbrage - though I’ll agree my comments were a bit outside the scope of @Baseball_Fan’s hypothetical question.
    The boat? :) I thought it was funny. I’d seen it in the water while on a walk the day before and the name on the stern “Secret Formula” struck me as relevant to investing. I’ll stop there! But if @Baseball_Fan wishes the photo to be removed, I’ll be happy to oblige him.
    hank in Other Investing
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    My only harp here with all the cash dwellers is: Provided that’s your established style I think it’s a really great way to go and locking in the highest available rates is a solid decision. Where I’d have a concern is with former equity investors who took a drubbing in 2022 (down 10-20%) locking in a substantial loss by selling equities near their lows in exchange for cash. Ernie Harrell always said you should “Dance with the one that brung ya”. So, provided someone had a long standing, effective and appropriate allocation model having broad exposure among asset types and investment styles before things went sour, it’s hard to see why they should switch partners in the middle of the dance, ditch their former approach and move entirely into cash.
    There is no certainty to any of this of course. Interest rates rise and fall. So d stocks, commodities, real estate prices, currencies etc.
    I am struggling a bit, to determine if this thread is really about a "serious" question to determine how one would "invest" a $100k, compared to how to "spend" a $100k. You can spend a $100k very easily these days on Boats, Cars, Hot Dogs, or a thousand other things. Everytime my wife and I have a $100k CD mature, my dear wife talks about "spending" options, most notably plastic surgery so she will look younger, or help one/both of our adult children better cope with their financial needs. For 2 elderly adults in their 70s, investing vs spending, is still very real, but we are still facing an unpredicatable personal future, of not knowing how our existing assets will be needed, to live out the remainder of our life, without "burdening" our adult children, or to alloow us to have some pleasurable experiences to make old age as good as possible.
    As you have noted above, when it comes to investing, we have already made some "debatable" choices. Equities were a big part of our investing decisions until we retired. Then we chose to go with less risky options, where our lifelong accumulations would not be in jeopardy, during this geriatric period of life without employment income, life without a company pension, and life with increasing health risks and some materialistic realities associated with our materialistic assests of homes, cars, vacations, etc. At this point in time, we have chosen a safer path with CDs, which will offer some guaranteed income, not with investing risks associated with bonds or equities, which have their own unique risks.
    This thread has investors/posters, in all phases of life, with varying conditions, unique to themselves. One persons decisions, is one persons decisions, and very likely will be based on conditions, that are different from other persons decisions. And my wife, who knows next to nothing about investing, is an equal partner in life with me, in making those decisons!
    dtconroe in Other Investing
  • 06 sept '23 stinky day... But why did the Postal REIT rise modestly?
    Closing numbers + percentage of change yesterday (9/6/23)
    Index Close % Change
    Dow 34444.38 -0.57
    Dow Transports 15374 -0.74
    Dow Utilities 853.17 0.2
    S&P 500 4465.61 -0.69
    Nasdaq 13872.47 -1.06
    Nasdaq 100 15371.44 -0.88
    Russel 2000 1873.44 -0.37
    VIX Index 14.39 2.71
    10 Year Gov't Yield 4.3 0.75
    Spot Gold 1916.56 -0.5
    Spot Silver 23.16 -1.64
    GDX-Gold Miners 28.47 -0.07
    Crude Oil 87.73 1.2
    Dollar Index 104.85 0.04
    Euro Spot 1.07 0.04
    Japanese 10 Year 0.67 2.15
    Shanghai SE 3158.08 0.12
    Long Bond 20-year 119.06 -0.03
    Source: Bloomberg
    The $87.73 quote is for NYMEX crude oil which rose 1.2% yesterday. There are a number of different grades of crude and so prices will vary among them. PRNEX is a good N/R fund and as @Crash suggests it is heavily weighted towards the refiners. Of course, refiners price based off many other fundamentals than just the price of oil. Since p/m metals fell yesterday - especially silver - that might help account for the small daily loss. I own a CEF that is somewhat similar to PRNEX in focus (leans more toward the metals). It was unchanged yesterday.
    hank in Other Investing