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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (08/30/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 The Purchasing Power Decline (Housing)
    03:51 A Dearth of Supply (Housing)
    8:55 Disney's Drawdown
    11:42 Prepared to Hike Again (Fed)
    14:46 A New Computing Era ($NVDA)
    18:58 Lower Used Car Prices (Tesla)
    22:09 Long Cycles (US Domination)
    24:47 The Other Side of Mania (AMC/Meme Stocks)
    28:20 The Rental Gap (Suburban versus Urban Rent Growth)
    30:58 8 Billion Reasons Thomas Malthus Was Wrong
    Video
    Blog
  • Laszlo Birinyi, Leading Stock Picker and Market Forecaster, Dies at 79
    From that article:
    His study of market history taught him, he said, that long bull markets have four stages: reluctance, consolidation, grudging acceptance and exuberance. This last period is marked by fearless behavior, the entry into the market of unskilled day traders and, ominously, the likelihood of a coming crash.
    This led Mr. Birinyi to the paradoxical conclusion that gloomy commentary by market watchers was actually encouraging — before the exuberance stage had taken hold — whereas sunny market reports signified danger.
    “So you won’t think the market is going down till everybody thinks it’s going up,” Mr. Rukeyser remarked to Mr. Birinyi on an episode of “Wall Street Week” in 1996.
    “Exactly right,” Mr. Birinyi said.
  • PRWCX/TRAIX Semi Annual Report
    The fund continues to hold a significant investment in bank loans, 11.2%, 7.9% in Treasury Notes, 9.4% in corporate bonds and 7.9% in a money market fund.
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/23
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/23
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    No changes.
    Restricted RC 6.75%, RA 6.50%
    Flexible RCP 6.00%, SRA 5.75%, Newer IRAs 5.20%
    TSP G Fund hasn't updated yet (previous monthly rate was 4.125%).
    Edit/Add, 9/2/23. September rate is 4.25%.
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #401k #403b #StableValue #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1161/thread
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    Munis including junk munis have been a major disappointment to date in 2023. Without getting into a bunch of technical or fundamental jargon or research, I would simply say so goes the 10 year so goes munis. It has pretty much always been that way.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    The generally low IG muni yields with my lower marginal tax rate is why for several years, my only muni investments have been in high yield, and only when they're good buys with a fresh spot of momentum. (And after a good run slows/stops, it's good-bye.)
    Thanks for the clarification of your situation, @lynnbolin2021. Of course all of us have individual situations that can make any specific investment a go or no-go.
  • T-Bill Auctions - Labor Day Revisions
    Due to Labor Day holiday, Monday:
    13-wk & 26-wk Auctions will be on Tuesday, 9/5/23.
    52-wk Auction will be on Tuesday, 9/5/23 (as typical).
    42-day Auction is a CMB, so it isn't on the regular Treasury Auction Schedule. Some brokers may not offer them.
    But Settlement dates for these will still be Thursday, 9/7/23.
    Orders placed from Thursday afternoon to early Tuesday will be covered by maturing T-Bills on 9/7/23.
    Treasury Announcement (note that brokers may have earlier order closing times than Treasury),
    https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2023/SPL_20230831_1.pdf
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    @lynnbolin2021
    All depends on what interest rates do which depends on hard or soft landing or "no landing". Long term muni funds like VWLTX are down 3% or so this year. They pay about the same so if interest rates don't go up you may be whole in a while.
    Given the various state tax rates and laws, and federal brackets, Medicare 3.8% surcharge everybody's situation is different.
    I am leery of articles like This Columbia one. touting a vague "tax equivalent yield" because one size does not fit all.
    Don't forget, also ( which I am sure you didn't) that tax exempt dividends are added back to AGI in calculating the Medicare B premiums.
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    I sold all of my muni funds earlier this year because their yields were so low compared to other income investments— CDs, Treasuries, money markets, taxable bond funds, etc. They make no sense at current yields unless you are in a high tax bracket. We’ve been in the 12% bracket for a while, but munis had competitive yields until this year. Now they’re not competitive even if we bump up to the 22% bracket.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/30/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/30/23
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (34%; above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (32.4%; above average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (33.1%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -1.4% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (still high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (79+ weeks, 2/24/22-now); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. The SEC had recent setbacks in crypto lawsuits (vs Ripple, Grayscale); its "regulation by enforcement" approach was dented by courts. A class-action suit against Uniswap was also rejected. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    LINK
  • Municipal Bond Outlook
    I wrote two articles for the MFO newsletter this month. One is on municipal bond funds. Columbia Threadneedle Investments just published an article, "Municipal Bond Outlook". The author's conclusion which I agree with is:
    "Historic tax-equivalent yields alone are a good enough reason to consider allocating into municipal bonds. Doing it in the current yield environment also allows investors to pursue a longer-term buffer against the potential for falling interest rates or the impacts of a recession."
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4631914-municipal-bond-outlook-we-think-positive-performance-will-continue
    My article evaluates several quality municipal bond funds.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/23
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/23
    There were noticeable shifts into stocks. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $31.60 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $316.0 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #Funds #OEFs #ETFs #ICI
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.44%, Hybrids 4.91%, Bonds 18.71%, M-Mkt 16.94%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1159/thread
  • 3 month T bill purchase today
    @FD1000- Thanks for that link. It's very clear and instructive, and showed me a couple of Schwab pages that I hadn't stumbled across before.
  • Rupal Bhansali is leaving Ariel to launch her own firm
    3rd paragraph - I think you mean Ariel (not Artisan) International. (Fixed! Thanks!)
    The next sentence leaves me confused: " Given that Morningstar doesn't track growth and value separately, and Bhansali is a distinctly contrarian, value investor, the star ratings might be a bit misleading. "
    It used to be that M* lumped all the global stock funds together into one "world" category. That changed in 2021. There are now value, blend, and growth global catagories.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/morningstar-world-stock-categories-get-some-style
    And it used to be that funds got star ratings based on broad asset classes. That changed a long time ago. "In 2002, Morningstar enhanced the star rating with new peer groups and a new measure of risk-adjusted return. The peer groups for the rating were changed to the smaller category groups instead of the broad asset classes."
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/foundational/780133_The_Morningstar_Rating_for_Funds__Analyzing_the_Performance_of_the_Star_Rating_Globally.pdf
    @Shostakovich - you might take a look at LTTMX. Its long term figures (including risk) look similar to AGLOX 's. The two funds follow somewhat different paths, with Lipper classifying LTTMX as a global equity income fund in contrast classifying AGLOX as a global multi-cap value fund.
    Portfolio Valuation comparison of the funds.
    Which gets me back to confusion about value classifications. LTTMX is a value fund (M* classifies it as a global large cap value peer of AGLOX), while Lipper lumps all global equity income funds together. In the end, they both deliver similar results with similar risks using value oriented portfolios.
    If one is willing to take on more risk (i.e. use a more volatile fund), one can find global value funds that more than reward the additional risk (i.e. have better risk-adjusted returns). But if risk management is paramount, LTTMX is worth a look.
  • 3 month T bill purchase today
    3-mo T-Bill rate $IRX trades daily; note that scale is 10x yield.
    One can look at trading on Fridays and Tuesdays, the day-before and day-after the Monday Auction (except when Monday is a holiday). Just a quick look at the chart shows that rates are generally higher (prices lower) the day-after the Auction, but they are more random the day-before the Auction. Of course, the Treasury market is also affected by news and Friday-Monday gap may be an eternity, but not so for the Monday-Tuesday gap.
    Unless one is playing with large $amounts, the profits to be realized by this sort of trading may be tiny. You will also be competing with Treasury dealers (Primary or general). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_dealer
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IRX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75047699867
  • 3 month T bill purchase today
    It should be obvious from the discussions so far, but I double-checked anyway. The following observations should be easy to remember.
    EVERY 13-wk T-Bill has the same CUSIP# as some 26-wk T-Bill.
    The 4th issuances of 13-wk and 26-wk T-bills have the same CUSIP# as some 52-wk T-Bill.
    But Treasury won't call these reopening (even when it may appear so to us). The only difference I see is that their amounts outstanding aren't combined. Also, some brokerage sites may fail to find all these CUSIPs (as the Treasury site does) - there was a discussion of this for Schwab in another thread.
    When Treasury uses the term reopening, it combines all issuances into a large total outstanding and Treasury says that it improves the liquidity of that Treasury issue. Treasury says that there are also (formal) reopening only for 2-Yr FRNs, 20-Yr & 30-Yr T-Bonds, 10-Yr & 30-Yr TIPS, and NOTHING ELSE.
  • 3 month T bill purchase today
    Buying T bills at auction through Schwab brokerage has no fee just like buying brokered CDs. There is a set schedule at the Treasury while CDs are not. https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
    Newly issued short term T bills, 13 week and 26 week have their auction every Monday. It would be good idea to place your order on Sunday night and the order will be filled by end of Monday. Longer term T bills and notes have their schedule. Personally I buy 13 week, 26 week and 52 week T bills to construct ladders.
    Several advantages of T bills over CDs:
    1. after tax return since T bills are state tax-exempt.
    2. Liquidity. Easy to sell before maturity in secondary market.
    3. Large $ amount can be purchase at auction.
    Last year MFO have had several treads on T bills that provide additional details.