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10 banks that may face trouble in the wake of the SVB Financial Group debacle
Here are the 10 showing contracting margins over the past year, or the smallest expansions of margins:
Bank Ticker City Net interest income/ avg. assets – Q4 2022 Net interest income/ avg. assets – Q3 2022 Net interest income/ avg. assets – Q4 2021 One-year contraction or expansion
Customers Bancorp Inc. West Reading, Pa. 2.61% 3.10% 4.03% -1.42%
First Republic Bank San Francisco, Calif. 2.28% 2.53% 2.50% -0.22%
Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc. Olney, Md. 3.10% 3.34% 3.29% -0.19%
New York Community Bancorp Inc. Hicksville, N.Y. 2.10% 2.06% 2.20% -0.11%
First Foundation Inc. Dallas, Texas 2.35% 2.98% 2.41% -0.07%
Ally Financial Inc. Detroit, Mich. 4.04% 4.20% 4.09% -0.05%
Dime Community Bancshares Inc. Hauppauge, N.Y. 2.98% 3.20% 2.95% 0.03%
Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc. Irvine, Calif. 3.34% 3.34% 3.27% 0.07%
Prosperity Bancshares Inc. Houston, Texas 2.72% 2.78% 2.65% 0.07%
Columbia Financial Inc. Fair Lawn, N.J. 2.69% 2.78% 2.60% 0.09%
Source: FactSet
Silicon Valley Bank’s failure boils down to a simple misstep: It grew too fast using borrowed short-term money from depositors who could ask to be repaid at any time, and invested it in long-term assets that it was unable, or unwilling, to sell.
In addition, nearly 90% of SVB’s deposits were uninsured, making them more prone to flight in times of trouble since the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. doesn’t stand behind them. The Federal Reserve was the primary federal regulator for both banks.
“A $200 billion bank should not fail because of liquidity,” said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston from 2007 to 2021 and was its top bank regulator before that. “They should have known their portfolio was heavily weighted toward venture capital, and venture-capital firms don’t want to be taking risk with their deposits. So there was a good chance if venture-capital portfolio companies started pulling out funds, they’d do it en masse.”
To be sure, banks regularly borrow short-term to lend for longer periods of time. But SVB concentrated its balance sheet in long-dated assets, essentially reaching for yield to bolster results, at the worst possible time, just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign. That left it sitting on big unrealized losses, making it more susceptible to customers pulling funds.
The banking industry as a whole had some $620 billion in unrealized losses on securities at the end of last year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which began highlighting those late last year.
Another regulatory issue: accounting and capital rules that allow banks to ignore mark-to-market losses on some securities if they intend to hold them to maturity. At SVB, the bucket holding these securities—consisting largely of mortgage bonds issued by government-sponsored entities—is where the biggest capital hole is.
The idea behind such a bucket is that it insulates an institution from short-term price volatility. The problem this poses is two-fold.
First, a bank may not be able to hold such securities to maturity if it faces a cash crunch, as happened at SVB. Yet selling the securities would force the bank to recognize potentially massive losses.
Second, the treatment of the securities means banks like SVB are discouraged from selling when losses emerge, potentially causing problems to fester and grow. That appears to have been the case at SVB and many other banks as rising interest rates in 2022 caused large losses in bond markets.
Banks have an additional incentive to pile into Treasurys. They have to hold less capital against such holdings, supposedly because they are risk-free. However, this means banks are holding less capital to absorb losses, and Treasurys can lose value due to changes in interest rates.
Others said monetary policy over the past decade played a role. The Fed “suppressed the yield curve and made it very clear to the banking industry that [it] would do this for a considerable period,” said Thomas Hoenig, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and former vice chairman of the FDIC. “So bankers are making decisions based on that message and based on that policy, and they fill their portfolio up with government securities of varying maturities, and they say they’re going to hold them to maturity.”
That suggests the need for regulators to take a broader view of the risks in the financial system.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2289~1a3c04db25.en.pdfAs a result of the different pace of pass-through [of ECB rate changes], an increasing number of investment grade banks and more generally sound banks start charging negative rates on corporate deposits after the start of the NIRP. A few banks even lower the interest rate on corporate deposits below the policy rate. Importantly, sound banks do not experience deposit outflows even if they charge negative rates. On average, deposits increase during the NIRP period, as is consistent with high demand for liquidity and safe assets
In more common banking situations the problem is that the value of bank loan assets has been significantly reduced by deterioration in the market value of those assets. That is not the case with Silicon Valley Bank- evidently their problem is mostly due to the deterioration of the PRESENT VALUE of otherwise secure government paper.The FDIC is expected to sell the bank’s remaining assets and use the proceeds to pay the uninsured depositors.
Federal officials faced growing pressure Saturday to bail out even the biggest customers of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank, igniting a ferocious political debate over Washington’s role in tamping down potential threats to the broader U.S. financial sector.
Companies that did business with Silicon Valley Bank are already warning that the bank’s failure may force thousands of layoffs or furloughs, and prevent many workers from receiving their next paycheck.
Some experts worry that large numbers of companies could move to transfer their money from regional banks similar to SVB to safer giant commercial banks Monday, leading to a fresh round of destabilization.
“All the choices are bad choices,” said Simon Johnson, an economist at MIT who previously served as chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “You don’t want to extend this kind of bailout to people. But if you aren’t doing that, you face a run of really big — and really hard to predict — proportions.”
But officials at the FDIC — which, in a stunning move Friday, took over Silicon Valley Bank during normal trading hours — are facing some calls to go beyond giving smaller customers their money back.
On Friday, the FDIC said in a statement that... uninsured depositors with accounts bigger than $250,000 — would get some of their money back, but it did not specify how much. Uninsured depositors make up the overwhelming majority of the bank’s customers.
A slew of federal regulators — including those with the FDIC, Federal Reserve and Treasury Department — have scheduled a number of private briefings with top lawmakers since the bank’s collapse, including members of the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees banking, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the conversations.
Unwinding the bank’s balance sheet will begin in the next few days if the FDIC can’t find another bank to take over all of SVB’s business. Customers who had uninsured deposits will receive some amount of money back by next week, the FDIC said, without specifying how much. The FDIC is expected to sell the bank’s remaining assets and use the proceeds to pay the uninsured depositors.
SVB held roughly $150 billion in uninsured deposits, according to the company’s latest financial statement, issued late last month. That amounts to more than 93 percent of the firm’s deposits, Bloomberg News reported. Many of the deposits came from wealthy venture capitalists or tech firms that Washington would face certain fury for aiding, although the precise percentage held by businesses is unknown. Roku, California vineyards and philanthropic efforts backed by venture capitalists were all among the firms that had money at SVB.
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