>> what have you done lately
? SCHD longterm performance shows this is, again, a rather misleading way to put it.
>> Had you looked at the same figures at another point in time,
sure, cherrypick away
You pick one trading day out of 2800+ and I'm the one cherry picking?
I looked at the long term (read lifetime) performance of SCHD on every trading day since inception and found that on most of them, its long term performance was superior to that of FXAIX. At least by eyeballing it.
The easiest way to see this is to plot the two over SCHD's lifetime, and note that there are long (multi-year) runs where FXAIX's cumulative performance exceeds that of SCHD:
11/2/
13 - 2/5/
16 (2&frac
14; years), 7/27/
16 - 5/
12/2
1 (4¾ years).
Here's
Portfolio Visualizer's graph. You won't get quite the same detail I'm providing (gory details below). The PV graph looks as though FXAIX led the whole way until five months ago. Though that's not far off from what happened.
FXAIX outperformed SCHD for virtually its whole life until five months ago. Are those few recent months supposed to stand in for long term performance?
When you talk about cherry picking, recognize that if one were to pick a date at random, much more likely than not, FXAIX would have outperformed SCHD to that point in time.
>> that we can expect, or at least hope for, another huge year (relatively speaking) for SCHD in the future? One that will make up for its typical slightly underperforming years?
and now you make it sound like SCHD is more this volatile / Heebnerlike instrument.
I'm looking not at SCHD, but the difference in annual returns between the two funds. This has got little to do with volatility of either component, but of volatility of their correlation.
If, for example, you take two share classes of the same, wildly volatile fund, differing only in ERs, then the volatility of the gap in performances will be zero.
The difference in annual returns ranges in magnitude between a half percent (0.52%) and 4&frac
12; percent (4.59%)
except for 2022, when the difference in performance is more than triple the next largest annual difference. In the "biz" we call that an outlier.
Lewis linked to a couple of pieces that suggest an explanation for this outlier. Assuming you buy the reasoning, the question for you is whether you believe similar conditions (with similar results) will happen again.
11/
1/
11 -
1/24/
12 - SCHD leads
1/25/
12 - 5/
15/
12 - FXAIX leads
5/
16/
12 - 5/
18/
12 - SCHD leads (ends on a Friday)
5/2
1/
12 - 5/23/
12 - FXAIX leads
5/24/
12 - 5/25/
12 - SCHD leads (ends on Friday, Mon holiday)
5/29/
12 - one day - FXAIX leads
5/30/
12 - 6/
19/
12 - SCHD leads
6/20/
12 - one day - FXAIX leads
6/2
1/
12 - 8/
16/
12 - SCHD leads
8/
17/
12 - 3/20/
13 - FXAIX leads
3/2
1/
13 - 8/
13/
13 - SCHD leads
8/
14/
13 - 8/
16/
13 - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
8/
19/
13 - one day - SCHD leads
8/20/
13 - 9/
18/
13 - FXAIX leads
9/
19/
13 - one day - SCHD leads
9/20/
13 -
11/5/
13 - FXAIX leads
11/6/
13 -
11/
12/
13 - SCHD leads
11/
13/
13 - one day - FXAIX leads
11/
14/
13 - one day - SCHD leads
11/
15/
13 - one day - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
11/
18/
13 -
11/20/
13 - SCHD leads
11/21/13 - 2/5/16 - FXAIX leads (ends on a Friday)
2/8/
16 - 2/9/
16 - SCHD leads
2/
10/
16 - one day - FXAIX leads
2/
11/
16 - one day - SCHD leads
2/
12/
16 - 6/23/
16 - FXAIX leads
6/24/
16 - 6/28/
16 - SCHD leads
6/29/
16 - one day - FXAIX leads
6/30/
16 - 7/
11/
16 - SCHD leads
7/
12/
16 - one day - FXAIX leads
7/
13/
16 - 7/
15/
16 - SCHD leads (ends on a Friday)
7/
18/
16 - one day - FXAIX leads
7/
19/
16 - 7/26/
16 - SCHD leads
7/27/16 - 5/12/21 - FXAIX leads5/
13/2
1 - one day - SCHD leads
5/
14/2
1 - 4/25/22 - FXAIX leads
4/26/22 - 4/27/22 - SCHD leads
4/28/22 - 5/4/22 - FXAIX leads
5/5/22 - 7/20/22 - SCHD leads
7/2
1/22 - one day - FXAIX leads
7/22/22 - tie, Friday
7/25/22 - 7/27/22 - SCHD leads
7/28/22 - 8/
18/22 - FXAIX leads
8/
19/22 - 8/24/22 - SCHD leads
8/25/22 - one day - FXAIX leads
8/26/22 - 9/8/22 - SCHD leads
9/9/22 - 9/
15/22 - FXAIX leads
9/
16/22 - present - SCHD leads