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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Profound implications: China's birth rate
    That is one of the consequences of China’s one child policy, even after it ended back in 2016.
    https://npr.org/2021/06/21/1008656293/the-legacy-of-the-lasting-effects-of-chinas-1-child-policy
    Not having enough younger demographic push the country to face Japan’s graying population , except China don’t have the equivalent of social security support comparing to the developed countries.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I know I'm very happy about 5%+ for zero risk.
    I'm glad I bought tech last summer.
    Sold generic S&P 600 and 400 funds and partly replaced them with SYLD and RWJ in the taxable. I have Vanguard value funds in small and midcap that ought to be labelled as blends. Started a small position in SPGP, a popular buy last week.
    Added FMIMX to the IRA. Current theory is this will be a boring smid for the long term in the IRA as I slowly trim my collection.
    Small and mid cap remains cheap. FMIMX is still at 13.68 PE.
    The return of value didn't last long.
    Summer has been mild so far in Maricopa county.
    I expect buying opportunities in the fall. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
  • Profound implications: China's birth rate
    Larry Summers, WSW. 16 June, 2023:
    In the past 6 years the number of births in China has dropped -50%. Holy Jeepers .
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    Personally, I’m very optimistic about balanced funds right now ... my primary balanced fund (FBALX) has decent three and five year returns.
    I certainly wish I had put all of our nut into FBALX 11y ago --- forget going back to 1986 --- when I stopped working on staff fulltime, and more important left it alone. Instead of the choices I did make. Woulda done rather better by now.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    But PRWCX has been closed for years. This is why there is interest in the new ETF TCAF (see a nearby thread). It is 100% equity but is managed by Giroux (who also manages PRWCX).
    Of course, once TCAF has some record, its proper comparison would be with VFIAX /VOO, SCHB, SCHD, etc.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    Though not a traditional 60/40 fund, returns for PRWCX are:
    YTD 10.49, 1 YR 16.16, 3 YR 10.32, 5 YR 10.56, 10 YR 10.79
    Returns for VBINX, a traditional 60/40 index fund are:
    YTD 9.81, 1 YR 12.70, 3 YR 6.12, 5 YR 6.84, 10 YR 7.77
    Compared to SP 500 fund, VFINX:
    YTD 15.71, 1 YR 22.17, 3 YR 13.80, 5 YR 11.45, 10 YR 12.46
    SD for PRWCX is 13.01 vs VBINX 12.58 vs VFINX 17.91
    With PRWCX you get just a bit south of 90% of the SP 500 return for 10 years with less volatility. For 5 years you get 92% of the SP 500 return. The people who constantly claim 60/40 is dead and useless don't invest in a moderate way and frankly don't know what they are talking about.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    16 June, 2023.

    Not my cup of meat, this week. Although I will always stop to listen to Sonal Desai. Tracey Alloway is no slouch, either. They were re-hashing the Fed Statement from Jay Powell.
    David Weston appeared, previously RECORDED. Romaine Bostick hosted.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (06/18/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including the best start to a year since 1997, the long awaited pause, downward inflation trends, and much more.
    Video
    Blog
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    The 3 noted with 1 year chart.
    Side note: Although a totally funky 1 year for a broad U.S. bond fund, a current real return for a total U.S. equity index and and total U.S. bond fund, each with about 3,000 + holdings; and these two within a 529 account at a 50/50 have a combined total 1 year return of 11.1%. So, not getting the big equity bump from the averaging down of the bond fund, which has a 1 year return of +.36%; but bonds have tempered equity draw downs since 2006. I expect the bond portion to perform better going forward. For 15 years, this 50/50 has provided a decent tax sheltered return.
  • Debate Over 60/40 Allocation Continues …
    Investors keen to keep an eye on their own investment portfolio can still rely on the basic wisdom of a 60/40 weighting to equities and bonds despite the recent souring of sentiment towards it, industry participants say. BlackRock warned at the end of April that, despite the recent rebound for this classic investment approach, investors should now buy a wider range of assets, but its biggest rival provider of exchange traded funds insists the traditional portfolio still has good long-term prospects.
    “Research from Vanguard dating back to 1977 shows last year was a historical anomaly for the 60/40 portfolio in that it was the only year in which both equities and bonds sank in value — delivering double-digit losses.In every other year, either both were in positive territory or gains in one offset losses in another. Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Vanguard’s chief economist for the Americas and head of portfolio construction, maintains that knee-jerk responses to market upsets are unwise. He points out that over the 10 years to the end of December a classic 60/40 portfolio would have delivered an annualised return of 6 per cent. Over the past four years that figure would still have been 5.9 per cent and the Vanguard Capital Markets Model projection for the next 10 years as of the end of December was for returns of 6.1 per cent.”

    Above excerpted from The Financial Times - June 17, 2023
    https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/8b6221f8-daa4-4cd9-8c76-58c8e0f7fff0
    (May require subscription to access)
    I checked the recent performance of three funds sometimes viewed as “safer” alternatives to a traditional 60/40 mix. (I’ve owned each of these in the past.) Returns going back to 3 years aren’t encouraging:
    TMSRX 3-year annualized +1.22% / YTD +1.49%
    BAMBX 3-year annualized +0.42% / YTD -0.31%
    CCOR 3-year annualized +0.91% / YTD -10.51%
    (Numbers from M*)
    Three years could be viewed as ”short-term”, but we live in a world where many view it as ”longer-term” - for better or worse. Did not check for 60/40 balanced funds. Would not expect near-term results to be much better. Balanced funds pretty much got “clocked” in 2022. More questions than answers here for conservative investors designing a portfolio with both growth potential and a risk profile they can cope with.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    In December 2021, the American Academy of Emergency Medicine Physician Group (A.A.E.M.P.G.), part of an association of doctors, residents and medical students, filed a lawsuit accusing Envision Healthcare, a private-equity-backed provider, of violating a California statute that prohibits nonmedical corporations from controlling the delivery of health services. Private-equity firms often circumvent these restrictions by transferring ownership, on paper, to doctors, even as the companies retain control over everything, including the terms of the physicians’ employment and the rates that patients are charged for care, according to the lawsuit. A.A.E.M.P.G.’s aim in bringing the suit is not to punish one company but rather to prohibit such arrangements altogether.
    From Envision's recent (May 15) press release:
    Envision Healthcare Corp. (“Envision”) today announced it and certain of its wholly owned subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Envision has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with its key stakeholders supported by more than 60 percent of the company’s approximately $7.7 billion in debt obligations and expects that support will continue to grow in the coming days. The terms of the RSA establish the framework for a consensual and comprehensive restructuring that will position Envision and AMSURG for future growth as two separate businesses.
    ...
    Under the terms of the RSA, the AMSURG and Envision Physician Services businesses will be separately owned by certain of their respective lenders. AMSURG will purchase the surgery centers held by Envision for $300 million plus a waiver of intercompany loans held by AMSURG LLC. All of Envision’s debt, with the exception of a revolving credit facility for working capital, will be equitized or cancelled, deleveraging approximately $5.6 billion.
    ...
    2018 acquisition by KKR & Co.,
    https://www.envisionhealth.com/news/2023/envision-healthcare-reaches-restructuring-agreement
    It looks like that restructuring will create problems for the suit: who are the defendants now?
    The private-equity backer is KKR, best known for its RJR Nabisco leveraged buyout. (See Barbarians at the Gate.)
    The bankruptcy wipes out private equity firm KKR’s investment in Envision. In 2018, the PE firm shelled out over $5 billion in 2018 to take Envision private, in a deal valued at $9.9 billion including debt. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that an Envision bankruptcy filing would be one of the steepest losses in KKR’s history.
    https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/envision-chapter-11-bankruptcy/650277/
    Interesting that these two deals serve as KKR bookends, with cofounders Henry Kravis and George Roberts having stepped down not too long ago.
    Repeating the Gretchen Morgenson quote in my earlier post:"Private equity firms are what used to be called leveraged buyout funds and firms."
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted ratings update to MFO Premium using Lipper's 16 June data file.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    The tales above regarding the medical profession are horrifying. Our youngest daughter is in med school and I am concerned for her future.
    On a lesser scale, but completely in keeping with the topic of the evils of Private Equity, the Chapter 11 filing of what was once the venerable Instant Pot is the subject of a recent article in The Atlantic. It’s alarming to read about PE screwing up a perfectly good thing.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/06/instant-pot-bankrupt-private-equity/674414/
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    wow and huh
    Seems typical, yes, and yes about the platform. Prohibiting divo, ccor, cape, and now tcaf?? Seriously?
    the ML guy who helped me was better than enthusiastic, and when I called a few days ago about something else the notes to the xfer guy were right there in front of the second guy.
    Anent Fido, I was frankly more than surprised, possibly shocked, that they were as cavalier as they were, and cavalier may not be the right word. I foolishly did not consult them beforehand (xfer of perhaps $400k) and, when I did, promptly after, was told, Sorry etc. I harrumphed that I had been w Fido for 55y, they could check (true, more including adolescence) and some millions of dollars (meaning >1) over time, and the response was Sorry.
    I did get an invite to an in-person consult about planning and allocation and whatnot.
    There really seems an opp here for a rival to do it all, for boomers down to </=millennials, concierge-style or at least the appearance and vibe of same. Moderate promos and incentives, maybe 2-3% credit cards, prompt person pickup and service, competitive rates including margin, low or no fees on outside funds, etc.
  • Low-Road Capitalism 5: Private Equity Edition
    Good article: https://nytimes.com/2023/06/15/magazine/doctors-moral-crises.html
    An excerpt:
    Because doctors are highly skilled professionals who are not so easy to replace, I assumed that they would not be as reluctant to discuss the distressing conditions at their jobs as the low-wage workers I’d interviewed. But the physicians I contacted were afraid to talk openly. “I have since reconsidered this and do not feel this is something I can do right now,” one doctor wrote to me. Another texted, “Will need to be anon.” Some sources I tried to reach had signed nondisclosure agreements that prohibited them from speaking to the media without permission. Others worried they could be disciplined or fired if they angered their employers, a concern that seems particularly well founded in the growing swath of the health care system that has been taken over by private-equity firms. In March 2020, an emergency-room doctor named Ming Lin was removed from the rotation at his hospital after airing concerns about its Covid-19 safety protocols. Lin worked at St. Joseph Medical Center, in Bellingham, Wash. — but his actual employer was TeamHealth, a company owned by the Blackstone Group.
    E.R. doctors have found themselves at the forefront of these trends as more and more hospitals have outsourced the staffing in emergency departments in order to cut costs. A 2013 study by Robert McNamara, the chairman of the emergency-medicine department at Temple University in Philadelphia, found that 62 percent of emergency physicians in the United States could be fired without due process. Nearly 20 percent of the 389 E.R. doctors surveyed said they had been threatened for raising quality-of-care concerns, and pressured to make decisions based on financial considerations that could be detrimental to the people in their care, like being pushed to discharge Medicare and Medicaid patients or being encouraged to order more testing than necessary. In another study, more than 70 percent of emergency physicians agreed that the corporatization of their field has had a negative or strongly negative impact on the quality of care and on their own job satisfaction.
    There are, of course, plenty of doctors who like what they do and feel no need to speak out. Clinicians in high-paying specialties like orthopedics and plastic surgery “are doing just fine, thank you,” one physician I know joked. But more and more doctors are coming to believe that the pandemic merely worsened the strain on a health care system that was already failing because it prioritizes profits over patient care. They are noticing how the emphasis on the bottom line routinely puts them in moral binds, and young doctors in particular are contemplating how to resist. Some are mulling whether the sacrifices — and compromises — are even worth it. “I think a lot of doctors are feeling like something is troubling them, something deep in their core that they committed themselves to,” Dean says. She notes that the term moral injury was originally coined by the psychiatrist Jonathan Shay to describe the wound that forms when a person’s sense of what is right is betrayed by leaders in high-stakes situations. “Not only are clinicians feeling betrayed by their leadership,” she says, “but when they allow these barriers to get in the way, they are part of the betrayal. They’re the instruments of betrayal.”
    Not long ago, I spoke to an emergency physician, whom I’ll call A., about her experience. (She did not want her name used, explaining that she knew several doctors who had been fired for voicing concerns about unsatisfactory working conditions or patient-safety issues.) A soft-spoken woman with a gentle manner, A. referred to the emergency room as a “sacred space,” a place she loved working because of the profound impact she could have on patients’ lives, even those who weren’t going to pull through. During her training, a patient with a terminal condition somberly informed her that his daughter couldn’t make it to the hospital to be with him in his final hours. A. promised the patient that he wouldn’t die alone and then held his hand until he passed away. Interactions like that one would not be possible today, she told me, because of the new emphasis on speed, efficiency and relative value units (R.V.U.), a metric used to measure physician reimbursement that some feel rewards doctors for doing tests and procedures and discourages them from spending too much time on less remunerative functions, like listening and talking to patients. “It’s all about R.V.U.s and going faster,” she said of the ethos that permeated the practice where she’d been working. “Your door-to-doctor time, your room-to-doctor time, your time from initial evaluation to discharge.”……
    Forming unions is just one way that patient advocates are finding to push back against such inequities. Critics of private equity’s growing role in the health care system are also closely watching a California lawsuit that could have a major impact. In December 2021, the American Academy of Emergency Medicine Physician Group (A.A.E.M.P.G.), part of an association of doctors, residents and medical students, filed a lawsuit accusing Envision Healthcare, a private-equity-backed provider, of violating a California statute that prohibits nonmedical corporations from controlling the delivery of health services. Private-equity firms often circumvent these restrictions by transferring ownership, on paper, to doctors, even as the companies retain control over everything, including the terms of the physicians’ employment and the rates that patients are charged for care, according to the lawsuit. A.A.E.M.P.G.’s aim in bringing the suit is not to punish one company but rather to prohibit such arrangements altogether. “We’re not asking them to pay money, and we will not accept being paid to drop the case,” David Millstein, a lawyer for the A.A.E.M.P.G. has said of the suit. “We are simply asking the court to ban this practice model.” In May 2022, a judge rejected Envision’s motion to dismiss the case, raising hopes that such a ban may take effect
  • TCAF, an ETF Cousin of Closed Price PRWCX
    I just moved considerable (for us) moneys from Fido to ML to get a $1k reward, and had several dealings w reps, and ML are really trying to up their game --- responsiveness, efficiency, savvy, frank advice --- it is clear. As for specific policies and ease of interface and that sort of thing, not so much.
    Of course Fido now if you make a large transfer of assets into them, you get nada, sorry, if you had done it a year ago ....
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    June 17 episode:
    Bookstaber’s current analysis highlights several slow-motion risks that he believes pose significant threats to the economy, societal stability, and even civilization itself. These risks encompass climate change, demographic shifts, deglobalization, and artificial intelligence. Alongside these long-term concerns, Bookstaber also evaluates more immediate challenges that impact the economy and financial markets.
    https://youtu.be/BraoC1LlomQ
  • JPMorgan Says Stocks to Suffer $150 Billion Rebalancing Sales
    The SP500 made over 20% since 10/22 and soon will go down 5%...looks trivial to me.
    150 billion sounds impressive, the 24/7 media loves to impress. Instead of saying the Dow is 1% down, they say the Dow is down 350 points.
  • inflation goals and means
    Excellent column. Last graf is incisive, and "fossil statistic" is a keeper of a concept.
    ... news organizations should stop playing up estimates of annual inflation excluding food and energy. Once upon a time, this was a useful number, but at this point it’s a relic, a legacy of a bygone age. And putting that fossil statistic in a story’s lede ends up misleading readers rather than informing them.