The traditional VIX gained 8% today which is a big move. And the 1-day VIX galloped ahead. Very unusual day for sure. NYMEX fell 4% to $67 - a possible recessionary warning. That on the heels of Barron’s bullish call over the weekend. Don’t laugh. I believe Barron’s commands a lot of respect among experienced investors. Gold has been unusually subdued for a few weeks - also strange. Fell early today and then recovered most of its losses later in the day.
I’d guess @yogibearbull ‘s focus on the Fed’s Wednesday’s rate decision is the best answer to this. It’s a foregone conclusion they’ll pause. So the real significance will be in whatever narrative they attach. I’m also thinking there may be a shifting undercurrent in the market going on with disgruntled “bears” beginning to throw in the towel and go long. My recent reading “between the lines” of predominately bearish James Stack (whom I subscribe to) makes me think this may be the case. Technicals have been pointing up. And the bears are starting to feel caged.

On Monday 6/12/23, VIX up on up market day was unusual. SKEW also was up (i.e. puts more expensive than calls).
Do the FOMC on Wednesday and options expiry on Friday explain this?
Seemed slow news day.
VIX1D 16.75 +44.52%
VIX9D 15.35 +15.50%
VIX 15.01 +8.53% (that is really VIX30D)
SKEW 157.71 (very high) +3.23%
SP500 4,338.93 +0.93%
https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^VIX1D,^VIX9D,^VIX,^SKEW,^SPX/view/v1

https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/blog/as-interest-rates-rise-investors-look-to-floating-rate-funds
A informative article on the performance of floating rate/bank loan funds in various rate environments since 1993. YTD they have been the place to be in Bondland with many having returns nearing 6%. One major caveat is if there is another leg down in the regional banks. Bank loan funds took a hit back in March amid the carnage in regional banks. Another caveat is defaults are beginning to spike with some pundits predicting double digit default rates by mid 2024.
Is the best over for this category? One plus is in spite of their stellar YTD performance there has been something like 18 consecutive weeks of fund outflows. Presently their current run have many overbought on the weekly RSI. I imagine tomorrow’s inflation data and Wednesday’s Fedspeak will ……..

ROLL BREAKEVEN YIELD
What is the tradeoff between buying x-yr now and roll vs buying 2x-yr now?
Yield for x-yr now = ix%
Yield for 2x-yr now = i2x%
Roll Breakeven Yield for x-yr in x years = iroll%
The Roll Breakeven formula is:
iroll = 2*i2x - ix
Example: T-Bill 1-yr vs T-Note 2-yr, 6/11/23
1-yr 5.17%
2-yr 4.59%
Roll Breakeven 4.01%
So, if YOU think that 1-yr will be higher than 4.01% in 1 year, buy 1-yr T-Bill now and then roll; if YOU think that 1-yr will be lower than 4.01% in 1-yr, buy 2-yr T-Note now. So, YOU don't have to look for what the others in the media are saying.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/456/roll-breakeven-yield

As for water:

Irrigated agriculture is the largest user of water in Arizona, consuming about 74 percent of the available water supply.

In Maricopa county agriculture uses 61.7% of the water.

What is the county getting out of that use of water?

Maricopa County is a livestock-dominant county, with 61% of agricultural cash receipts originating from livestock and its products and 39% from sales of crops. Maricopa County is a major agricultural producer ranking in the top 1% of counties in the U.S. for sales of milk, other crops and hay, and vegetables and melons. Major agricultural commodities by sales includemilk from cows ($487.7 million), vegetables, melons, potatoes, and sweet potatoes ($163.1 million), other crops and hay ($129.5 million), and nursery, greenhouse, floriculture, and sod ($123.7 million)

Just a reminder that hay is alfalfa. one of the most water-intensive crops on the planet. Any of you folks think Maricopa should be spending water resources on hay production that generated some part of 129.5 million bucks in 2020?

The day last week it was reported that Phoenix may limit housing tract permitting, water ETFs (PHO and FIW) jumped. I have owned the latter through thick and thin since 2018. SPY has returned about 55% for those 5 years, while the two water funds have gained some 75%. CGW, however, has lagged SPY.

...
One aspect of the CHIP Act is to bring manufacturing capabilities and capacities back to US. TSMC is on track to build a manufacturing plant in Phoenix, Az and another one in Germany. This will take several years to complete but it will stabilize the manufacturing capabilities in US and Western Europe.

So we were out at a club last weekend and via some mutual, professional friends, we met and spoke at length to one of the many Project Managers at the AZ site. The man has been a PM all of his career and engaged in many national/international high $ and high profile construction projects.
We asked him how things were progressing at the site.
Um, OUCH!
He related some stunning (and detailed) comments (that I won't detail here) about the company's lack of understanding and appreciation for the many layers of regulation, inspection and certification on US construction projects. For much of his time during the early stages of construction, he would get to the site, 'splain

again why they need to adhere to this/that regulation, tell them to Just Do It, and then go home for the day. Next day, rinse and repeat. In his over 30 years as a PM, he stated he's never seen anything approaching the issues on this job.
LOTS of other issues surround this project and they are being documented daily by local press, TV and the like. Online searches will easily locate many of the biggest issues.

Maybe they should have teamed up with ASU. Stuff sprouts out of the ground when they're involved, or even in the neighborhood. Maybe Phoenix codes are rougher than Tempe's, maybe.
I googled the TSMC project. Most of the stories revolved around serious cultural issues with the work force and the neighbors.
Intel OTOH, meets child care challenge, teams up with Maricopa Community college to offer free training.
Next thing you know Intel will be paying people to tear out the few remaining lawns and install water efficient toilets.
Maybe they can get our two utilities to get modern on distributed solar.
Axios has a good back-grounder on the Silicon Desert.

Posted on Twitter, https://twitter.com/YBB_Finance/status/1668048779285504003
YBB Personal Finance
@YBB_Finance
The image seems mislabeled by Getty Images (I found it by Google search) as a bull, but several people verified that it's a cow! The WSJ may get a refund from Getty Images.
Otherwise, cows are running on Wall Street.
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bull-standing-in-field-royalty-free-image/200455053-001

@BaluBalu, a Google search on that WSJ picture led to this Getty Images that clearly labeled it as a bull. Is your view of the picture clear enough to say it's a cow? I have also found the WSJ piece on Gunjan Banerji's Twitter page and I follow her too. There are 2+ dozen comments on it but none mention this bull vs cow aspect.
https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/bull-standing-in-field-royalty-free-image/200455053-001

Posted May inter-month ratings update from last Friday's 11 June data drop ... it actually drops Saturday morning, but is labelled with date of last performance update. The update includes David's latest profile(s) on Leuthold long funds. See Profiles.

That thought has occurred in IL for MATCHING federal $s with IL $s:
"State of Illinois Launches $15 Million Federal Grant Support ...
CHICAGO - Governor Pritzker and the Illinois Department of Commerce and ... the State's efforts to secure funding through the CHIPS and Science Act,..."
Pitches have been made but no takers yet.
https://www.illinois.gov/news/press-release.26493.html

@davidsherman, yes, Graust is correct. I just pulled 1 month return from wherever Schwab gets their data. And I didn't mention the consistent trend of SPC, also in this account. I believe also up .8% for the month, 5.2% for 1 year. Not sure how you do it, but the chart is one very consistent trend up since last fall. So, thank you.

@davidsherman….not @MikeM, but he was talking ~1 month returns for both RPHYX and SAMBX, I believe (thread started on May 14th).

@MikeM...not sure how or where you are calculated RPHYX returns for 2023YTD. But, Morningstar has RPHYX up 2.15% which coincides with my calculations.

More info on brokerage web info.
All brokerages are sort of sneaky in how they present the $balance/$money available in positions/holdings screens. And that is what has tripped me on some occasions even when I am well aware of differences between T+1 and T+2 settlements.
The amounts shown are total amounts available to trade and that is $settled + $pending settlement.
In the Balance Screens, often there are $amounts available to trade that are different from $amounts available to withdraw (that is the really settled $amount).
Only Fido has the complete info in the Balance Screens broken down as $available WITH margin credit and $available WITHOUT margin credit.
Of course, in IRAs, or in a/c without margin, the trade screen won't allow trade without sufficient balance.

But no issues in margin a/c - may be a hit of 1-day interest on mistakes involving OEFs (T+1 settlement) and ETFs (T+2) settlement).
That's exactly the reason that I turned off margin. I want the system to tell me if I've made a mistake. Before I turned it off I did on very rare occasions incur petty interest charges.
However, I still encounter these issues in the IRAs.
Bingo!

@yogibb, I have made the switch already since January this year to increase allocation to intermediate term bonds since. First started on treasury and then corporate bonds using both active and passive managed funds/ETFs. Though I have limited choices in my 401(k) plan. Also invested in a multi sector fund, PIMIX, and ST HY bond, OSTIX based on previously experience with these managers. My bank loan/floating rate bond exposure are limited to PRWCX, but I am watching closely as Giruox makes his moves quickly.
I continue to maintain a decent exposure to cash equivalents as long as the yield curve is inverted. Given this year’s inflation running near 5%, these cash equivalent is barely able to keep up AFTER factoring out inflation. Nevertheless, there are still better than the past near zero yield with money market. So rotating to the intermediate term bonds is necessary for the bond price appreciation as you noted that Fed’s rate hike is near the end.
During the March 2020 drawdown, BL/FL funds fell like HY corporate funds, averaging over 10%, and they took close to 6 months to recover. Treasury’s, in contrast, barely dropped at all and end ed the year up several percents as the FED cut the rate to 0.25%.
A mid-year review from Schwab’s Kathy Jones is enclosed for your enjoyment.
https://schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-fixed-income

The Week in Charts (06/11/23)
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including an increase in bullish sentiment, the enormous eight, a June pause, the jobs comeback, and more...
Video
Blog

But no issues in margin a/c - may be a hit of 1-day interest on mistakes involving OEFs (T+1 settlement) and ETFs (T+2) settlement). I don't use margin anymore but the a/c are approved for margin, shorting and options. My experiences are at Fido and Schwab Brokerages.
However, I still encounter these issues in the IRAs.

Cargo operations were shut down yesterday at the Port of Seattle.
Link