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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder
    I agree that holding cash or short term bonds would be a lot better, but that is hindsight. Investment grade bonds are down 14% YTD and there are two more rounds of rate hikes to go this year. Until the Fed starting to reverse the course and cut rate, IG bond prices continue to fall. VWINX will likely to have the worst year on its record.
    Europe is in the early phase of contraction and US will likely to follow in early 2023. One possible scenario is inflation to remain high, say 5-6% (not the 2% target) and economy slides into a recession, what will the Fed do?
    In another post of WealthTrack interview with David Giroux of PRWCX, he uses bank loan and treasury (recent addition) in his fixed income portion of the fund. The portfolio responded to this year environment much better than VWINX even though PRWCX holds many growth stocks. https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/154372/#Comment_154372
  • How Coal Companies Sidestep Mine Clean Up Obligations
    Worth reading: https://bloomberg.com/features/2022-west-virginia-coal-mining-alpha/?leadSource=uverify%20wall
    All these old coal mines present a looming and potentially expensive disaster for coal country—and for taxpayers who could be on the hook. Meanwhile, Alpha’s share price has gone up more than 700% since it exited bankruptcy in 2016. The executives who guided the company through bankruptcy, a corporate split, a re-merger and a name change have been handsomely rewarded. Kevin Crutchfield, CEO from 2009 to 2019, earned at least $72 million in those years. President Andy Eidson, set to take over as CEO, has made at least $16 million since he joined Alpha a decade ago.
    Environmental advocates say big coal companies transfer their mines and reclamation obligations to save money, despite the cheery confidence they express in the ability of new owners to clean up their messes. Indeed, Alpha and Lexington both trumpeted their commitment to reclamation when the deal was announced.
    “It’s a fig leaf,” says Erin Savage, a scientist at Appalachian Voices in Boone, North Carolina. “It comes down to the math.” Alpha and other large coal companies must know that reclamation would cost them more than they pay to the company that takes the mines off their hands, Savage says. “Otherwise, why would they do it? They’d just do the reclamation themselves.”
  • China blocks foreign LNG sales
    And my ET stock cannot find a way to breach $12.00, come what may. Oil/gas midstream.
  • China blocks foreign LNG sales
    This seems somewhat like a non-event, given that China is "the largest importer of gas in the world". China is not like Qatar, a major exporter.
    In terms of world demand, it doesn't matter whether China exports some LNG and imports more, or exports none and imports a bit less. What matters is that "China’s LNG importers seek to stay out of the spot market this winter as demand growth has skidded to the slowest since 2002, meaning the world’s top importer of the fuel will likely avoid competing with crisis-hit Europe for supplies."
    That could help ease inflation a bit. Wishful thinking?
  • ethics. bostic. oops.
    My post at Twitter, 10/14/22 (LINK)
    Weak excuses by someone w Harvard & Stanford education, & whose name has been floated for Treasury Secy, Fed Chair, Comp of Currency, etc. Atlanta Fed Prez is really a private sector job w some public roles & responsibilities. Was he up for a new position when all this came out?
  • ethics. bostic. oops.
    "transactions had been inadvertently omitted from his financial disclosures."
    Note use of passive tense to deflect responsibility.
    “I take very seriously my responsibility to be transparent about my financial transactions and to avoid any actual or perceived conflicts of interest.”
    Must have been someone else.
    "He said that he had 'come to learn [] that ... the transactions directed by third parties ... should have been listed on my annual financial disclosure forms.”
    So the omissions weren't "inadvertent" after all. He deliberately omitted the transactions based on his purported misunderstanding that arose despite his taking his responsibilities very seriously.
    Ah, rhetoric. Which reminds me. I need to review Aristotle's 28 lines of argument for a rhetoric class debate tomorrow.
    https://kairos.technorhetoric.net/stasis/2017/honeycutt/aristotle/rhet2-23.html
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    Schwab seems to require a brokerage account to have checkwriting in order to use its bill pay feature. (At least it did in 2018, which is the date on this Schwab One bill pay enrollment form.)
    It's interesting that Schwab is actively removing cash management services from customers' brokerage accounts while still promoting these brokerage account features. See here (current as of 9/30/22):
    https://www.schwab.com/cash-investments#beacon-deck--89981
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    @msf:
    "When it comes to Schwab, Schwab Bank is a real, FDIC-insured bank, separate from but affiliated with the broker-dealer Charles Schwab & Co. "Affiliated" here means that they are both owned by the same parent company, The Charles Schwab Corporation.
    https://www.schwab.com/savings
    But the Schwab One brokerage account (as opposed to the HY checking account) appears to operate as a pseudo "bank" account. The account disclosure says that "Checking account and Debit Card services provided by the Bank". And it defines "Bank" to be "BNY Mellon Investment Servicing Trust (IST) Company and/or its affiliates, the entity responsible for administering the Bank Services."
    https://www.schwab.com/legal/schwab-one-account-agreement"
    After the launch of Schwab Bank & HY Checking linked to brokerage, I didn't see the point of using old Schwab One brokerage checks and had NO activity with them for more than a decade. Recently, I got a notice from Schwab that this old Schwab One checking facility (and related debit card) would be cancelled IF NOT USED by 10/18/22 (that is 2 days from now). I will just let it go. I did call Schwab to confirm that this in no way affected services connected with Schwab Bank (checks, debit, bank links) and they confirmed so. Other Schwab account holders with similar notices may act differently.
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22-10/31/22
    Many brokerages provide cash management services as if they were real banks. For example, Fidelity accounts offer checking ant debit card services. But those services are provided by UMB Bank (routing number 101205681is associated with UMB Bank, KS). Fidelity says that its "accounts are considered a checking account for direct debit purposes."
    A few institutions will link only to real banks, not to these pseudo "bank" accounts. I don't have any problems linking Treasury Direct to such accounts. So it doesn't look like Treasury Direct is one of those few picky institutions.
    On the other end of the spectrum are real brick and mortar banks with lots of branches. Such as Chase, or TD Bank that is "one of the 10 largest banks in the U.S" and "a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank of Toronto, Canada". They are FDIC insured, unlike brokerage accounts masquerading as checking accounts.
    https://www.tdbank.com/aboutus/investor_relations.html
    When it comes to Schwab, Schwab Bank is a real, FDIC-insured bank, separate from but affiliated with the broker-dealer Charles Schwab & Co. "Affiliated" here means that they are both owned by the same parent company, The Charles Schwab Corporation.
    https://www.schwab.com/savings
    But the Schwab One brokerage account (as opposed to the HY checking account) appears to operate as a pseudo "bank" account. The account disclosure says that "Checking account and Debit Card services provided by the Bank". And it defines "Bank" to be "BNY Mellon Investment Servicing Trust (IST) Company and/or its affiliates, the entity responsible for administering the Bank Services."
    https://www.schwab.com/legal/schwab-one-account-agreement
    Then there are internet-only banks (e.g. Ally Bank). In theory that shouldn't make any difference in the context of electronic transfers as opposed to walk-in services. One doesn't walk into a bank to set up a domestic EFT link.
  • What happened to Gabelli Value 25 (GABVX) in April 2021?
    If you go here
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui
    and put in, for 2y or perhaps a bit less, GABVX plus such comparisons as you wish (VBR, VONV), you can get a picture of the strange spike and comedown (while still doing better than VONV). Until. The real dismay comes from its underperformance the last 10-11mos and especially since the summer.
  • What happened to Gabelli Value 25 (GABVX) in April 2021?
    Are you catching up with March/April 2021?
    Anyway, GABVX is a focused MC-blend, but has high exposure to SC; it also has exposure to M&A deals. So, SP500 isn't a good benchmark for it. As it has only 25 stocks, you will have to dig into those for the week of March 22-26, 2021 (you may have to check SEC/Edgar filings for its portfolio around then). But it looks like that week there was a selloff Mon-Wed that hit SC vary hard, and GABVX went down hard. But when things rebounded Th-FRI, GABVX kept falling - that can happen with concentrated positions.
  • What happened to Gabelli Value 25 (GABVX) in April 2021?
    On Monday March 22, 2021 it was $16.46, and by Friday March 26, 2021 (same week) it was $14.92 for a loss of 9.4%.
    Vanguard Index 500 (VFIAX) was up 0.5% in the same week, and that's not even including a distribution that was paid. There were no GABVX distributions paid in that week.
    If you own or track GABVX do you know what happened that week that caused such a sudden correction? I'm just curious.
    thanks!
  • Classic stock and bond mix no longer makes sense. Do this instead says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder
    I was very leery of VWINX and other "allocation" funds. Everyone knew the stock market was close to peak PE, but when interest rates were so low last year, the protection bonds offered in the past disappeared, especially as VWINX duration is still 5 to 7 years.
    I don't understand why they didn't move rapidly into short term bonds and cash. The bonds they held were almost guaranteed to lose 5 to 10%
    I can only assume this is a case of being stuck as their mandate did not allow 70% cash
  • Element EV & Solar Battery Materials (Lithium, Nickel, Copper, Cobalt) Futures ETF in registration
    There are several other alternatives that have been trading for a while with higher volumes
    https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/consumer-discretionary/automotive-stocks/electric-vehicle-etfs/
    BATT focuses on batteries for EV with stocks including technology companies and nat resources
    LIT is focused on Lithium but has a large overlap
    REMX includes "rare earth" companies, most of which are Chinese, IT covers the waterfront of a lot of other materials
    GMET is more thinly traded with "green metal companies"
    You could also buy FXC (Copper) ALB ( Lithium) Glencore ( largest Cobalt producer) and most of the other big mining stocks to get exposure to Nickle
    Big issue I think is 1) volume of shares traded and 2) trying to get concentrated exposure.
    A little research would tell you how much Cobalt is worth to Glencore bottom line, for example
  • “Buy the Garbage” (market commentary)
    Well, maybe the key qualifier there is "initially". How long is initially? 10 minutes? 10 days? 10 points on the S&P or Dow? 10 months?
    Without a clear definition of "initially" the whole concept is simply "garbage".
  • from Canada: consumers will now be dunned
    Until 2013, Visa's and MC's contracts with US merchants forbade them from adding a credit surcharge. However they were permitted to provide a discount for cash payments. That's still the law in NY, and this is how the Supreme Court described it in a 2017 case:
    “A merchant who wants to charge $10 for cash and $10.30 for credit may not convey that price any way he pleases. He is not free to say “$10, with a 3% credit card surcharge” or “$10, plus $0.30 for credit” because both of those displays identify a single sticker price – $10 – that is less than the amount with which the credit card users will be charged. Instead, if the merchant wishes to post a single sticker price, he must display $10.30 as his sticker price.”
    ... businesses are required to post the higher credit card price labelled as the “regular price,” but may offer a discount to those who pay in cash.
    https://www.scolaro.com/ny-law-on-surcharging-credit-cards/
    There are 10 states in all that put restrictions on credit card surcharges.
    California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma and Texas.
    As I read the Canadian reporting, we can add Quebec to that list. It seems to allow cash discounts, just not credit card surcharges. The Quebec Consumer Protection Act reads: "if a consumer is offered a rebate or discount on the cash purchase of goods". That suggests that a cash discount is permitted even if a surcharge isn't.
    https://www.legisquebec.gouv.qc.ca/en/document/cs/p-40.1
  • “Buy the Garbage” (market commentary)
    Barron’s sometimes publishes brief excerpts from newsletters or other market commentators. These do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the magazine. This one’s off-beat enough and short enough that I’ve quoted the entire piece as it appears in Barron’s for whatever interest it may hold.
    “Buy the Garbage” - Insights from Heritage Capital Oct. 14:
    “If the rally continues, we should see the most beaten-down stocks bounce the hardest for now. I literally laugh out loud when I hear pundits advise investors to buy ‘good, solid companies with strong balance sheets, cash flows, and dividends’ during bear markets. That's about the worst advice. When bears turn to bulls, the garbage and most beaten down initially rally the most. — Paul Schatz ” (From “Market Commentary” / Barron’s - October 17, 2022)
    Unable to provide working links to Barron’s. But here’s a link to a commentary from Heritage Capital by Paul Schatz dated October 14. https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/bells-may-not-be-ringing-but-they-are-being-polished/