@rforno
I think that applies to less than a majority of the GOP, maybe 20%. They hold influence because only 50% of people bother to vote
When your bank closes and the ATM is empty and your SS check doesn't arrive, I suspect people will notice.
The GOP will try to blame Biden, but whether this will work remains to be seen.
I still do not understand why the debt ceiling is not unconstitutional.

I agree. It's just another example of 'minority rule' disrupting the good workings of this country.
I don't think that blaming Biden for a default would stick, either. And I've read this morning that the WH hasn't removed invoking the 14th Amendment from the table ... or letting it go into the courts and let SCOTUS ultimately rule that a default is a constitutional violation -- which would also give Biden cover since it's not *him* or the D's that are making the decision here, it's the judiciary, such that it is.

I just can't imagine a prolonged default as is suggested in this post. At worst, I see a 6 month or a 1 year kick-the-can down the road. A prolonged default, to me, would be seen as an act of political terrorism or even sedation by most Americans and corporate doners. There would, I believe, be a revolt against the right-wing terrorists. Even joe-the-plumber Trump supporters would not except such pain to their pocketbook... would they?

Can't disagree with the primary statement. A short video at page top after 15 second ad.
Text and video, Mr. Buffett

One can live off dollars, one can’t on percentages. Although I understand on an abstract level removed from your actual life, it’s “all about math,” in reality in one’s life, it is not at all. This is especially so if one worked for those dollars, spent the fleeting hours of one’s life earning them.
Psychologically, it’s quite interesting. Think about if you found $100 on the street and lost it versus if you worked eight hours, gave your entire day to earning that $100 and then lost it. Would it feel the same? It’s why when losses eat into the principal you invested instead of just erasing gains you already made on top of your principal it feels worse. And losing $50,000 is always going to feel worse than $100 even if in percentage terms they’re the same, especially if that $50,000 is the equivalent to a year’s salary for many Americans and they now need to live off that $50,000 in retirement.

Covering 11 years of total returns, there is not much different in the 3 you noted. Yes, they will travel slightly different paths during a 6 month or 1 year time frame, but this is the nature of management investment choices and market valuations during such periods. The largest spread over the entire time frame is 5.3% more return for WBALX vs VWINX. As noted previous; have you a serious reason to desire changing funds ?
VWINX , INPFX , and WBALX chart from May 18, 2012 to May 5, 2023.

Hover over the date field and it shows 11/5/22, 1:15 PM.

Rummaging through old posts uncovered this from last November … Never out of date.

“Have you noticed how easy it is to tell yourself that you would be comfortable with a 10% drop in the value of your portfolio until you are seeing it losing $50,000, $100,000 or $150,000 or more . Dollars seem to have a greater impact on your tolerance.”

I decided a long time ago it’s best to view asset allocation in terms of percentages. So, theoretically, it doesn’t make any difference whether you’re managing $50,000, $500,000, or $5,000,000 when designing a portfolio and maintaining the desired allocation among different asset classes. There are some caveats: Fees tend to be higher for lesser amounts invested. And some lucrative investments may not be available for smaller sums. In that sense, dollar amounts may well influence investment decisions.
As @Bobpa correctly notes, looking at dollar sums can be gut-wrenching during falling markets as money seems to be “flying out the door”. More important, this can lead to hasty knee-jerk reactions we later regret. Another thing I noticed is that dollar sums appear to gain in importance once distributions begin. Up until then (during the working years) they’re largely “numbers” on a chart. However, once you begin spending those funds on real goods and services, your perspective changes. Suddenly you’re looking at “real” dollars in terms of what they can buy.
Post is from November 5, 2022, just a few weeks after the S&P dipped below 3,590 on October 12. That was its low for all of 2022 and lower than where it ended 2020. (Thanks @Yogibearbull for helping on the date.)

Every time I read the title of this thread I think
Break Glass!
BTW, I think any threat to SSI payments would result in playing the 14th Amendment card.

Last post @Bobpa posted on MFO was back in June 2022.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151173/#Comment_151173
In this post, he talked about his portfolio and holdings where VWINX is one of the larger allocation fund. Bobpa is in his retirement and he is looking for a replacement for some reason that he did not specify on this post. Since everyone’s situation is unique with respect to withdrawal needs., RMD, and investment horizon, the question is more on financial planning rather than a “drop-in” replacement with a different asset allocation fund.

Thanks @yogibearull for your input. So the market is expecting the worst scenario of US treasury will default by June 1st? It came close in 2011, but the psychological impact was unfortunately not long lasting enough.

With just a quick search, I haven't found much on how Social Security could be handled if the debt ceiling is reached and extraordinary measures are exhausted. Here's one page that came up, referencing a 1996 law giving temporary authority for SS to borrow without it counting against the debt ceiling.
https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2023/03/02/19/77341/
My off-the-top-of-my-head thoughts are that since SS is roughly 3/4 paygo, the government should be able to make payments of at least 3/4 of "normal" amounts without any impact on debt. That in turn should cover Medicare premiums - a secondary issue that I haven't seen mentioned. (If SS does not make payments, and Medicare premiums are still due, do participants have to come up with the cash themselves?)
The 3/4 figure is based on projections that when the trust fund is depleted, payroll taxes and such will be able to fund 3/4 of amounts due.
IMHO, and without careful thought, the question seems to be whether the SSA can draw money out of its trust fund to cover the other 1/4 as it normally does. As larryB points out, there is a question of what the Treasury will do about paying off Treasury bonds as they become due. The SS trust fund is invested in Treasuries, albeit of a special nonnegotiable type. So ISTM that there's a question of whether SSA will have access to the money in the trust fund.

I know I am the voice of pessimism around here and nobody knows what the worst might bring. Nonetheless I have read several articles in the last few days that speculate that Treasury Only Money Market Funds could suffer badly post default. I wonder what might be a reasonable substitute. 1. Prime Money Market, more diversity? FDIC HYS account? FDIC insured 90 day CD’s? Checking accounts at a too big to fail Brick and Mortar Bank? Under the bed? I have a relatively affluent friend who sheepishly revealed to me that he has cash buried in his yard but I wonder if he was pulling my leg. Suggestions please.

May 5, 2023 Episode:

This week on WealthTrack...Terrence Keeley, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of 1PointSix LLC, left BlackRock, one of the world’s largest investment managers, in July 2022 to publish his book, SUSTAINABLE: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing.
In his 40-year investment career, Keeley has never advised a client to invest in ESG, and he joins us to explain why ESG investing doesn’t work and what does. This is a rare occasion for a top executive at a major investment firm to go public about a major policy difference.

Link to Podcast Interview:
wealthtrack-1945-keely-05-05-23-1080p

https://www.ft.com/content/feb33914-493e-467c-b67e-28fcd1b3814d
Interesting article about the financial audits conducted by KPMG

Due diligence here suggests that I should post the entirety of my earlier comment from which @Old_Joe has excerpted and to which he has taken exception.
“PACW + 85% today to $5.85
Believe a lot of money has both been made and lost on this one. Makes one wonder what really moves these (regional banking) markets. And who has access to what information. Simply attributable to Charles Mackay’s “The Madness of Crowds? Pardon my skepticism.”
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/61041/pacwest-falls-50-after-hours-on-report-bank-is-weighing-sale
Not quarreling with Old Joe’s analysis of this issue. Just felt that the full text of the comment by me to which he alludes should also appear in this thread,

Where was Larry Summers this week?
I don't recall watching an episode of the "new" Wall St. Week where he was not a guest.

Yes, I noticed that, too. ..... (???)

I think that I got it. The 1m T-Bill yield has spiked because the market now thinks that 1m maturity will be AFTER the drop-dead date for debt-ceiling. And this expectation changed THIS week.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202305

05/05/2023:

Lee and Subramanian are good. I like it when they're on.

"Makes one wonder what really moves these (regional banking) markets."
@hank- Ask, and you may (or may not) receive-
Matt Levine answers hank's question