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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2% swr
    Seems like in retirement one should not (1) generate (SS income, RMD, + investment income, cap gains, etc.) more income than one needs and (2) take investment risks that could result in generating more than (1). Also, is it reasonable to say that take equity risk (e.g., equity ETFs) in taxable accounts and put fixed income (e.g., Treasuries) in the IRAs, relatively speaking?
    The above does not apply to Roth accounts. Seems like having almost all your assets in Roth accounts could be the most ideal, provided you meet the penalty free withdrawal requirements so you can access the money but have least obligation to the government. (BTW, I have insignificant amounts in Roth accounts.)
    SS income is included for IRMMA calc. So, if a surviving spouse claims SS based on higher benefits earned by deceased spouse, that could increase Part B premiums. Moving from a higher State income tax to a no to low State income tax State in retirement is another good way to keep more of what you worked so hard for during your working life.
    Finally, seems like one should try to keep built in gain (net of transaction costs) in their primary residence within the exemption amounts to avoid income tax and additional Part B premiums. So, sell your primary residence (i.e, move) more often than you otherwise would without this exemption amount.
    Congratulations to those who plan their lives well.
    BaluBalu in Other Investing
  • 2% swr
    There are various factors that affect net Part B premiums. IRMAA is just one of them. It is almost impossible for IRMAA alone to cause the premium to triple when filing status changes from MFJ to single. 
    Part B Premium	2022 Coverage (2020 Income)		2023 Coverage (2021 Income)
    Standard	Single: <= $91,000			Single: <= $97,000
    Married Filing Jointly: <= $182,000	Married Filing Jointly: <= $194,000
    Married Filing Separately <= $91,000	Married Filing Separately <= $97,000
    Standard * 1.4	Single: <= $114,000			Single: <= $123,000
    Married Filing Jointly: <= $228,000	Married Filing Jointly: <= $246,000
    Standard * 2.0	Single: <= $142,000			Single: <= $153,000
    Married Filing Jointly: <= $284,000	Married Filing Jointly: <= $306,000
    Standard * 2.6	Single: <= $170,000			Single: <= $183,000
    Married Filing Jointly: <= $340,000	Married Filing Jointly: <= $366,000
    Standard * 3.2	Single: < $500,000			Single: < $500,000
    Married Filing Jointly: < $750,000	Married Filing Jointly: < $750,000
    Married Filing Separately < $409,000	Married Filing Separately < $403,000
    Standard * 3.4	Single: >= $500,000			Single: >= $500,000
    Married Filing Jointly: >= $750,000	Married Filing Jointly: >= $750,000
    Married Filing Separately >= $409,000	Married Filing Separately >= $403,000
    https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irmaa-income-brackets.html
    If one is in the first bracket (paying just the standard premium), then the premium can triple by moving the one of the top two brackets (3.2 or 3.4 times as much). But if one is in the second or higher bracket, it is impossible for the premium to triple.
    So the initial MAGI (MFJ) must be no more than $182K. Filing as a single next year, the MAGI would have to be greater than $183K to jump into one of the top two brackets.
    That is, even with the change in filing status from married to single, MAGI would have to go up in order for the Part B premium to triple. It would not triple if MAGI remained the same or went down.
    Repeating, there are adjustments aside from IRMAA that affect net Part B premiums. So it is easily conceivable that net Part B premiums could triple with a change in filing status. But not because of IRMAA alone.
    msf in Other Investing
  • "Other Investing?" Or Politics? Money is involved. EU/N.I. "Protocol."
    +1 LOL !!
    carew388 carew388 in Other Investing
  • 2% swr
    @BaluBalu
    Some of the items @Anna has been digging through.
    --- How many years does Irmaa last?
    The Social Security Administration (SSA) determines if you owe an IRMAA based on the income you reported on your IRS tax return two years prior, meaning two years before the year when you pay the IRMAA. For example, Social Security would use tax returns from 2021 to determine your IRMAA in 2023.
    --- How long does the Irmaa surcharge last?
    Unlike late enrollment penalties, which can last as long as you have Medicare coverage, the IRMAA is calculated every year. You may have to pay the adjustment one year, but not the next if your income falls below the threshold.
    IRMAA related search topics, if you're inclined to know more.
    catch22 catch22 in Other Investing
  • Long and Short Cramer (LJIM, SJIM)
    Academic research paper on a related topic
    "Impact of Mad Money Stock Recommendations: Merging Financial and Marketing Perspectives"
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1509/jmkg.73.6.244
    BWG in Fund Discussions
  • Long and Short Cramer (LJIM, SJIM)
    OK, here's the deal: I start a couple of etfs, and you guys bet against me. You'll all make a fortune, but I get 10% of what you get. Why didn't we think of this a long time ago?
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Fund Discussions
  • Stock and Bond Bears of 2022
    Full table 1928-2022/Q3 with records of SP500 and 10-Yr Treasury.
    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1577770081152602127
    image
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • Long and Short Cramer (LJIM, SJIM)
    No joke! M* Ptak on Twitter, LINK
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064222005066/tuttleetfs485a.htm
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • 2% swr
    It turns out that deferred accounts are deadly for some widows. The following is an estimate I have made of the federal tax and Medicare B consequences of my husband's death.
    Although my income including RMDs from both accounts goes down 19.12%, my taxable income only goes down 8.79% which makes my taxes go up 33.53% landing me in a higher tax bracket.
    I'm not sure yet what exactly will happen with Medicare B or when it will happen. As far as I can tell I will, at a minimum, triple my Medicare B premium. It may quadruple if I read the latest table correctly.
    Anna Anna in Other Investing
  • WTO Sees Sharp Slowdown in Global Trade, Pointing to Possible Recession, Lower Inflation
    Following are excerpts from a current WSJ article, severely edited for brevity:

    World trade in goods is set to slow sharply next year, possibly easing high inflation but raising the risk of a global recession, a new forecast shows. The World Trade Organization said surging energy costs and rising interest rates are weakening household demand across the globe, a dynamic that could cause exports and imports to increase by just 1% in 2023, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. It also means there is an increased risk that the global economy will contract.
    The WTO also lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.3% from 3.3% and warned of an even sharper slowdown should central banks raise interest rates too sharply. Several long-term trends are weighing on international trade, including increased tariffs and other barriers, as well as a slowdown in globalization that threatens to intensify as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions.
    New export orders fell in September at the fastest pace since June 2020, when the pandemic had closed large parts of the global economy, according to a survey of purchasing managers at factories around the world released by S&P Global on Monday. A measure of supply-chain pressures compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has fallen each month from April to August, and freight costs have declined rapidly over recent months.
    Signs of a slowdown in global trade are especially visible in Asia. Data from bellwether exporters such as South Korea show a pullback in overseas sales, as Western consumers, especially in Europe, feel the squeeze from high inflation and rising interest rates. South Korea’s exports grew by an annual 2.8% in September, the weakest performance since October 2020.
    In China, the world’s second-largest economy, an export boom that propelled its economy through the pandemic is petering out. Export growth slowed sharply in August and a subindex of the country’s official purchasing managers index that tracks new export orders fell deeper into contraction territory in September. Chinese demand for imports is also weak, starving Asian economies of a key destination for finished goods, components and raw materials. Imports grew 0.3% in August compared with a year earlier.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Are you checking your portfolio too often?
    image
    “Warren Buffett doesn't have a computer on his desk ...”
    “Nicholas Taleb, in his profound book, 'Fooled by Randomness', talks about the difference between noise and meaning. He uses the example of the happily retired dentist who builds himself a nice trading desk in his attic, aiming to spend every business day watching the market while sipping decaffeinated coffee. He watches his inventory of stocks via a spreadsheet with live price updates.”
    Chart shows that near-term “gains” or “losses” are relatively insignificant when compared to a portfolio’s longer term probability of success. (Cannot vouch for the accuracy of the statistics - but they appear reasonable.)
    image
    Read full story here
    hank in Other Investing
  • "Other Investing?" Or Politics? Money is involved. EU/N.I. "Protocol."
    Bumped As I understand the issue, goods shipped from Britain to Northern Ireland face customs inspections because GB is out of Brexit while the island of Ireland is treated as within Brexit to comply with 1998 Good Friday Accord. Inspections take place at Belfast rather than at NI border with Republic of Ireland. DUP objects to this arrangement, causing the Stormont standoff !
    carew388 carew388 in Other Investing
  • GQHPX
    GQHPX +3.12% yesterday. Looking better and better on my watch list. Wish it was offered on discount platforms.
    shipwreckedandalone in Fund Discussions
  • 2% swr
    @bee
    Thanks for a re-do of Roth conversions. These have been discussed here for many years; but a good reminder for those who may not be familiar and new to this investment area.
    @davidrmoran
    I presume you're referencing, in part; a non-spousal inheritance of your Roth's, that Secure Act provisions require non-spousal inheritance amounts be withdrawn within a 10 year period, but will not be taxed upon withdrawal. As long as the Roth has been in place for 5 years. Yes?
    @msf
    Good reminders for everyone regarding charity and IRMAA.
    et al Keep in mind that tax rates will become "different" after the Trump era tax changes expire in 2025. Whatever the rates become, could impact some of your taxable income, which would include RMD's. Yup, not that far away for planning purposes.
    Below links do not require a log-in.
    Fidelity Roth conversion Q & A
    Fidelity Roth conversion calculator
    Lastly, relative to the thread topic; everyone's monetary needs and asset base are different.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Other Investing
  • 2% swr
    For the most part I agree and have been incremental Roth conversions for years. But there are also reasons to retain some traditional pre-tax funds. Two charitable issues come to mind:
    - It is much more tax efficient to leave T-IRAs to charities than to leave other assets to charities. Compare bequeathing $100 in a T-IRA with converting that $100 to a Roth (leaving, say, $88) and bequeathing that to charity. The direct T-IRA donation does better even than donating appreciated assets. Sure you avoid the cap gains tax on appreciated assets, but you still purchased those assets with post-tax dollars. So those assets cost you more than what you paid for assets in a T-IRA.
    - If you're older than 70&frac12; you can donate up to $100K/year to charities from a T-IRA without having to pay any income tax on the withdrawals. If you are already itemizing it is close to a wash, because then you can add the contribution to your deductions and that balances out the extra income generated by withdrawing the T-IRA money. But most people can't itemize, and even if you are itemizing, that two step process (withdraw and then contribute) increases your AGI which can impact other things (e.g. increasing income subject to 3.8% Medicare surtax, increasing IRMAA, etc.).
    msf in Other Investing
  • CGM Funds to liquidate
    It is too bad that funds that liquidate can't just transfer the positions to the sharehoders.
    They can, unless they have promised not to (see below). While redemption in kind works for Authorized Participants who arbitrage huge slugs of equities, do retail investors really want to be handed dribs and drabs of many securities? The CGM funds are very concentrated, but they still hold over a score of securities that investors would have to deal with.
    CGM Mutual Fund (LOMMX): 19 stocks, 5 Treasury bonds
    CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX): 25 stocks
    CGM Realty (CGMRX): 42 stocks
    see also Adoption of (1) Rule18f-1 Under the Investment Company Act of 1940 to Permit Registered Open-End Investment Companies Which Have the Right to Redeem In Kind to Elect to Make Only Cash Redemptions and (2) Form-N-18F-1, Investment Company Act Release No. 6561 (June 14, 1971) [36 FR 11919 (June 23, 1971)] (“Rule 18f-1 and Form N-18F-1 Adopting Release”) (stating that the definition of “redeemable security” in section 2(a)(32) of the Investment Company Act “has traditionally been interpreted as giving the issuer the option of redeeming its securities in cash or in kind.”).
    https://www.regulations.gov/document/SEC-2016-2027-0001
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • 2% swr
    @Rbrt,
    Keep things simple.
    - Do Roth conversions up to the 12% tax bracket. No brainer.
    - Consider converting to Roth any long term holding that has temporarily lost 20% or more… the loss will eventually pay for the tax hit.
    - look at your RMDs as a taxable events and compare them against your Roth conversions which are taxable events.
    - Buy chocolates
    bee bee in Other Investing
  • 2% swr
    @BenWP,
    … Starting SWR prior to RMD may actually help lower RMD. Roth conversions early in retirement might also help lower RMDs. If SWRs come from tax deferred accounts they are a component of RMD. If SWR withdrawals are lower than RMDs, the remaining RMD dollars (after taxes are paid) could be contributed to a Roth IRA (if you or your spouse have work income).
    This has been a point of friction in my household. I want to do Roth conversions while my wife thinks it is crazy to pay taxes today that will otherwise be due in 12 years. I tell her the tax will be higher then. She is unfazed.
    Rbrt Rbrt in Other Investing
  • Huge bump-up today, but...oct. 3rd, '22.
    @_yogibearbull
    Yes sir
    I read somewhere and posted last wk
    After severe panic selling days /capitulation, VIX massively high, poor sentiments
    Then followed (after 5-7 days sales off) w couple days uptrends ( bulk of Stocks sp500 mid caps low caps) 85% 90% finishing positive for 3 5 days (new consecutive higher highs) despite massive bad news, new baby bull maybe born/formed.
    Will watch market breadth/macd and market trends next 3-6 trading days
    Was watching Bitcoin, did not reach new lower low past 2 3 wks (less than 18.5k) which may mean bottom consolidations
    All bets off if uncle Powell keeping hawkish tones, both feet on the gas pedals/ no backing off (not 0.5%raise followed by 0.25% next yr, and no Qt slows down)...
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • Huge bump-up today, but...oct. 3rd, '22.
    Yes, i'm sitting back, just watching it all with (no doubt) some very temporary glee.
    Glad I found BHB when I did! ...I'm dying to see my PRISX pick itself up out of the ditch. ...It's only a relief-rally, anyhow.
    *bumped into KIT JUCKES last night on Bloomberg TV. He's always interesting, to my mind. He's the FX guy at Societe Generale.
    From a Linked-In profile:
    "I have been busily ignoring Linkedin for years. Linkedin have created another profile of me, as 'bloke what works for Societe Generale'. I am slowly going to start trying to figure this malarky out so if I ignore you or fail to connect with lifelong friends, it's cos I'm rubbish....
    My random thoughts can be found on twitter (@kitjuckes), or by finding my occasional blog on any search engine.
    I was born close enough to Eldoret to be slightly disappointed I can't run a marathon in anything like 2 hours. After that, I spent a lot of time in France, some in boarding school and then some in London, studying economics (though I seem to have spent an awful lot of time playing hockey, tennis and bridge, instead of studying). About a week before my finals I worked out that I really, really like economics, and some time later I worked out that what I am really interested in, is economic history. By then I'd decided to spend six years studying the wrong bits of economics. If I'd worked it all out earlier I'd be an academic, and my wife and children would have deserted me…..so it's all for the best."
    image
    Crash Crash in Other Investing