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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why 2022 Has Been Such a Terrible Year for Bond Funds
    @derf, I stay with TRP floating rate fund for its short duration (<1 yr) although junk quality. Giruox holds floating rate bonds in his bond allocation. Think that help PRWCX to survive the bond downfall. I sold off most of broad based bonds early this year. For now, no dipping into bond funds until rate hikes are done. I rather gaining 3-4% in treasuries (hold to maturity) and losing 3% to inflation, rather than losing 20% to equities.
  • Why 2022 Has Been Such a Terrible Year for Bond Funds
    Sobering news indeed...
    "For example, the largest U.S. bond fund strategy, the $514.5 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX) is down 12.12% through Sept. 13, putting it on track for its worst year since its inception in 1986."
    "The Vanguard fund has never posted two consecutive years of negative returns, and this year’s losses are much more extreme than those seen in other down years. Its biggest annual loss came in 1994 when it posted a 2.66% decline."
    "In fact, 2022 may be on its way to the record books for more than just the size of the losses. This could be the first time on record that all types of bond funds have declined together in the same year. Every one of Morningstar’s 20 taxable bond categories is in negative territory for the year through Sept. 13."
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Have Stocks Become Cheap?
    John Rekenthaler's view:
    "Today’s stock prices are nowhere near cheap enough to forestall further losses, should the economic news worsen. If the Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates early into next year, and/or corporate earnings head firmly south, then equities will take a further beating. If, however, the economy avoids those problems, then stocks figure to rally. As the 30-year averages show, equities can profit handsomely at these levels - assuming the economy plays its part."
  • Any Funds You're Hoping Will Reopen Because of the Bear Market?
    @ron,
    PRILX is open to all investors with a $100K minimum.
    It may be available on some platforms with a lower minimum.
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Per Moody’s, the first eight months of this year saw 59 corp debt defaults, compared to 55 for the entire 2021. I did not expect that given it was so easy to refinance in 2021 to push maturities out and lower interest expense. As they say, you have to wait for the tide to go out.
  • Any Funds You're Hoping Will Reopen Because of the Bear Market?
    PRWCX PRHYX
    *Compare PRHYX and TUHYX. I got into the latter because the former is closed. The ER is .05 cheaper on PRHYX. And it's much more spread-out. Manager tenure is over 3 years now. On TUHYX, Manager tenure is over 9 years.
    PRHYX yield. 6.06
    TUHYX. 6.68
    PRHYX holdings: 472. 3 stars, bronze= morningstar. Duration 4.52.
    TUHYX 115. 3 stars, silver. (for whatever it may be worth.). Duration 4.37
    Looks to me that PRHYX holds some bonds from foreign companies. TUHYX is labeled "U.S. High Yield."
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Yes, the total bond index (BND) got hit hard (-1.28%) today, while TRP floating rate bond is down -0.44%. At the same time, the yield of 10 year treasury reached 3.878%, the highest level for this year! And that is a bad omen for bonds. Also energy and commodities got hammered too.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    "Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500."
    You're not kidding.
    I just checked about a dozen intermediate core/core plus bond funds which I track via M*.
    Thay were down 1.12% to 1.71% today
    YTD returns range from -13.18% (DODIX) to -21.35% (WACPX).
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Bonds were so week today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than S&P500
    Ditto. Caught my attention while scanning a watchlist I keep. VWINX -1.26% / VFINX -1.03%.
    Thought about shifting a bit from my GNMA (etf) into a mining stock late in the day. Stopped when I noticed the GNMA was off quite a bit more than the stock. ISTM The GNMA was down over 2% at the time.
    I can’t conceive that the “free-fall” affecting virtually every asset class can continue that way for long. Would seem to defy logic. But what do I know? Lots of balls in play here and abroad. So, maybe I’m missing something. The hardest factor to get a handle on might be the “herd mentality” effect. To what extent is the stampede into cash and short duration paper exaggerating the action in all the various markets - notwithstanding that there are important fundamental reasons as well.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500. Here are several familiar ones:
    Moderate-allocation BALFX, DODBX, FBALX, FPURX, VBINX, VGSTX, VSMGX, VWELX
    Conservative-allocation TRRIX, VTINX, VSCGX, VWINX
    Multi-asset FMSDX, VPGDX
    Key are benchmarks SPY -0.99%, BND -1.28%, LQD -1.74%, VBINX -1.16% (Bond/Treasury volatility MOVE jumped up +11.9%)
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Would it grieve anyone here to think all of that past performance is meaningless and no guarantee of future results? The only thing that matters is the present and future when it comes to the market. Unless there is something in that past price performance you can identify as a precursor to the future, and that will predict somehow that performance will repeat in some way, it has little value. This is why Old Joe's analysis, which is fundamental, seems more meaningful to me. What is predictive perhaps in that performance is the lower valuations of foreign stocks embedded into it. Consider this p-e ratio:
    https://morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/avdv/portfolio
    versus this p-e ratio: https://morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ivv/portfolio
    Then consider how our currency is at a 20-year high. That foreign small-cap ETF has a p-e of 7 versus the S&P 500's 17.5. At what point does that valuation gap begin to matter?
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    I've also heard much of the same.
    There seem to be varying cycles where either foreign or domestic stocks outperform.
    image
    "The 1970s and 1980s saw Pacifics stocks, led by Japan, annihilate US and European stocks, which also lifted the performance of the World ex-US."
    "The 1990s were dominated by US stocks, and the meanest reversion of all led to the horrible performance in Pacific stocks we discussed earlier."
    "The 2000s were unkind to the S&P 500, as it finished the 2000-2009 period with a negative return. International stocks picked up the slack somewhat and outperformed on a relative basis for much of that time frame."
    "Now you can see the divergence once again as US stocks have handily outpaced the rest of the world over the past decade."
    Link
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    +1 junkster Googling yearly performance figures for FAGIX on yahoo finance is eye-opening! The fund returned 72% in 2009 and 17% in 2010.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    Bond volatility ^MOVE (153.61) is now quite high. This may be a warning of some credit-event or financial storm - in the US or globally.
    On the other hand, high ^VIX (32.26) and low/reasonable ^SKEW (120.01) is an interesting setup that is more likely near the stock market lows. As noted in a nearby thread, a multiday (3+) low-testing is ongoing.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^MOVE,^VIX,^SKEW/view/v1
    For general info, https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/17/vix-skew-move
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Junk bonds? TUHYX. New ytd low today. crap. but expected. TTM yield 6.68%. SEC yield is shown at 9.08%. But how stale is that number by now? Nearing end of month. (morningstar.) Performance = down ytd by -16.44%. Latest available peer comparison stat is for yesterday, pegging the fund at bottom 7 percent of its junky category. Yet morningstar still rates it with 3 stars and a silver decoration.
    In EM, I like to check AGEPX. Down -15.24 YTD. Owns Ghana bonds, but negligible. Not certain if the fund owns dollar-denominated Ghana bonds or local currency.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/ghana-set-to-start-debt-restructuring-talks-for-local-bonds
    Even ytd down by -15.24, it's listed as sitting in top 20 percent of category. but that might be a bad number, because the fund invests in FRONTIER markets, not EM, specifically.
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    @Observant1: thanks very much for compiling the stats on relative performance of international markets. I don't know how many times over the last 10 or so years I heard that EM or international would make a recovery, only to see crummy returns.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    I like Jim Bianco’s comments today re. sentiment. “In a bear market sentiment can and will go to apocalyptic/suicidal levels”…….
    There certainly seems to be a lot of despair now yet all I see (and have been seeing) is how this or that indicator is at record oversold levels and a rip roaring rally is at hand. At least for the S@P, this has been nothing compared to 2008/early09 and 1973/74.
    Junk bonds are at new YTD lows today yet very little spread widening like in past bear markets.
    With money market funds on their way to over 3% as they realign with last week’s Fed funds raise and then on to over 3.50 to 3.75 or higher after the next Fed meeting in five weeks I would think my fellow early Baby Boomers are dancing in the streets. Even better if one is into T-Bills with the two year over 4.30.
    At my age I want just one more junk bond bull market because the gains can be spectacular from bear to bull ala 1991-93 and 2009-12 where they outdistanced the S@P returns. Thought I had it this summer but proved to be yet another fake out rally, but profitable nonetheless.
  • King Dollar
    Dollar’s relentless rise to 20+ yr high (secondary peaks 2001-02; peak 1995) is now becoming a global problem. Dollar ETF UUP is attracting huge inflows. Dollar may be the single most factor (besides several other factors) contributing to the declines in currencies, commodities (energy, ag, metals, gold, silver), stocks (US, foreign, EMs), bonds (investment-grade, HY, foreign). Its daily % moves (ROC(1)) are simply amazing for global reserve currency. At $114+ today, 9/26/22, dollar was 3*SD above its 50-dMA, also very unusual. The StockCharts link below shows $USD (EOD; updates few hours after the market close) with 50-dMA & 200-dMA, Bollinger Bands BB(20.2)* – one can see it far above the upper-BB, Bollinger Band Width BBW (20,2) - high, RSI (14) - high. Yahoo has live chart for DX-Y.NYB but it isn’t linkable and screenshot isn’t the same thing.
    * 20-dMA & 20-dSD. BBW is 4*20-dSD as % of 20-dMA.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;id=p01513801242