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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TRP ridiculousness
    A simple question. Non-account specific. A question that anyone at their end should be able to answer. If you could GET THROUGH to anyone. At last, in desperation, I did. He was no help. Human, alright--- but prevented by his system and protocols from doing anything for me. Wrong department. And apparently prevented by the rules he must follow from simply THINKING.
    TRP has very well hidden their corporate phone lines, too. NO ONE IS HOME. Why would I attempt to call CORPORATE? Because "customer service" is not servicing customers.
    *********************************************************
    I've read here on the board about references to the fact that TRP must have farmed out the Customer Rage and Aggravation lines to some Call Center somewhere. I don't doubt it. ... Clearly they are too big for their britches, these days. I see that they've just acquired some other investment outfit too, by the way. The culture has changed. No shareholder deserves this kind of treatment.
    I'm aware that customer "service" at Vanguard is equally as bad, so I won't go THERE. Years ago, some guy at Matthews got up on the wrong side of the bed, and very quickly, they found themselves without my money.
    ...I could--- as most of the rest of you do--- use a brokerage. There are offices for all the famous ones here in this city. But unless I NEEDED to do it, there'd be normally no reason to have to do things in person. Transferring via a direct rollover involves some basic paperwork by remote-control between offices. I've done THAT before. The TRP brokerage? In which I have a tiny amount invested? I'll just wait for my stock to climb out of its hole. Today is a good day, despite the rest of the Markets.
    This is a serious question: I'm hoping to get input from any of you others about Fund Houses you are HAPPY with in terms of customer service. And if you wouldn't mind: how do the people get paid at those brokers like Schwab or Fidelity? Is $200+K too small for them to worry about? Is that amount so small that it would restrict my options if I used a brokerage? I'm grateful ahead of time for replies. Thanks. Who's got the skinny?
    I'll wait, and choose my moment to exit TRP when it's more advantageous.
    *I just got a call-back from them! That's funny: when that previous fellow disconnected me, there was no indication that such a thing would happen. And of course, she wanted name and address. OK.
    ...Oh, but wait: I need your investor number or account number.
    How about my Social? How DIFFICULT does this need to BE? I gave her my shoe size, hat size and physical location on the WEST side of the street, too. Jesus H. Christ.
    Well, then... can you verify your account balance? I recalled the approx. total and gave it to her.... OK, yes: they must verify identity. But my question did not even involve any particulars about my account. I offered to give her my SS. But that wasn't good enough, either. What a cluster-fuck. And after 25 minutes and multiple attempts to get to a human who was empowered and willing to listen and give me an answer, she was able to answer my question. In three seconds.
    NOTHING should be THIS difficult.

    ****************************************************
  • Getting off the sidelines - when?
    Howdy folks,
    @hank you may be correct about the precious metals. I'm copying from Liberty Coin Service's Patrick Heller's FB page with YTD returns.
    Patrick Heller "Current financial markets are getting interesting. Here are how prices have changed from the close on December 31, 2021 through today, January 20, 2022:
    Platinum: +8.9%
    Palladium: +8.5%
    Silver: +5.9%
    Gold: +0.8%
    US Dollar Index: -0.2%
    Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.5%
    Standard & Poors 500 Index: -5.9%
    Bitcoin: -9.0%
    NASDAQ: -9.5%
    Russell 2000: -10.0%
    As you can see, the prices of platinum, palladium, and silver have outperformed gold thus far in 2022. Gold has outperformed all the other assets listed through the first 20 days of this year.
    By the way, the US Treasury 10 Year Note interest rate has jumped from 1.52% to 1.83%, an increase of 20.4%!"
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • More red today
    S&P 500 fell to the 200d ma (actually dropped a touch below it) in what feels like record time, and then bounced back up a bit. If you do this sort of thing, whether the 200 holds is a good thing to be watching.
  • More red today
    2022 better not turn out to be Death by 1,000 Cuts. Can't we just get a few big wash out days where equities are down -4% or -5% per session? That's the way to do it.
    This correction is too orderly.
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    (Macaulay) duration is the time weighted sum of cash flow present values normalized by dividing by the bond price.
    image
    https://www.fincash.com/l/basic/macaulay-duration
    What you were using was modified duration (or effective duration), i.e. sensitivity to interest rates:
    TIPS have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates.
    Modified duration is the derivative of present value (PV) with respect to rates (again, normalized by dividing by bond price, i.e. PV). That turns out to be Macaulay duration divided by (1+r) where r is the discount rate per coupon period.
    This is easy to see. Start with the PV formula:
    image
    After dividing by the bond price, differentiating with respect to i (rate) gives:
    {[(-1 x PMT1/(1+i)¹) + (-2 x PMT2 /(1+i)²) + ...)] / BondPrice} / (1 + i) =
    - ( timeWeightedCashFlowPVs / BondPrice ) / (1+i)
    - MacaulayDuration / (1 + i)
    Related to, but not the same thing as Macaulay duration.
    Still, that doesn't address your more significant assertion that TIPS' duration (whatever the form) is longer because cash isn't paid out until maturity. IOW, that TIPS are effectively zero coupon bonds.
    With a traditional CD, interest compounds at a fixed rate. So calculating APY and YTM is easy. In fact, all that really matters (except for tax purposes) is the final value of that CD. You could call it a zero since you don't get the cash flows until maturity.
    Still, there are interest payments; you can see it in the balance reported for your CD. The risk with fixed rate CDs (as with zero coupon bonds) is that interest rates may rise and you can't deposit those interest payments at the new higher rates.
    If the bank did allow you to draw the interest payments and redeposit them at higher rates, that CD would be more valuable to you. It's not that you're literally getting your hands on the cash, it's that you're able to get current (higher) market rates on the interest as it is credited.
    Same with TIPS. You don't get your hands on the inflation adjustments. But you see them in your balance (i.e. "principal amount"). And if inflation rates go up, that new balance benefits from the higher rates.
    In this regard, TIPS work even better than redepositing the CD interest or reinvesting bond coupon payments. With the CD or the fixed rate coupon bond, only the interest payments receive higher rates going forward. With the TIPS, the original principal (as well as the inflation "adjustments") receive the benefit of higher rates.
    With respect to inflation, TIPS are floating rate bonds, and as such have zero duration.
    I started with the statement: "The relationship between inflation adjusted (real) durations and nominal durations is somewhat complex." This may help (or further confuse):
    Nominal bonds are generally considered to have one duration (the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in its nominal yield or interest rate), but inflation-indexed bonds, such as Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities (formerly, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS), may be regarded as having two durations: Di, the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in inflation, and Dr, the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in real interest rates.
    For a nominal bond, whether a change in yield was caused by a change in inflation expectations or a change in the real interest rate does not matter; the effect on the bond's price is essentially the same either way. But for a TIPS bond, an increase in inflation does not affect the bond's price because the change in the cash flows in the numerator (of the equation for discounted cash flow analysis) is indexed to inflation and the discount rate in the denominator has also been increased by the same change in the expected inflation rate. Thus, the TIPS bond has an "inflation duration" of zero. A change in real interest rates, however, affects the price of a TIPS bond much as it does the price of a nominal bond, so a long-term TIPS bond has a long real-interest-rate duration—say, 15 years.
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v60.n5.2656
    That is why Vanguard moved to short term TIPS.
  • GMO: Let the Wild Rumpus Begin - Superbubble
    The Five Stages of a Market Bubble
    “There are typically five stages to a bubble: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.”
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I just checked at M* the valuation of top 10 components of ARKK portfolio. Two companies are rated four stars (Twilio & Zoom), one company is rated five star (Teladoc), and one company is rated two stars (Tesla). All other companies are rated 3 stars. The higher the star rating the more undervalued a company is. Assuming M* valuation work can be relied upon and assuming the market pays attention to M* work, it appears ARKK may currently be in the range of fair value. But given market's mood always swings too far from the median, another 15% drop in ARKK from today's close price would put it at $64.50, which I think is a good entry point.
  • Cincinnati Agency Buys Nearly 200 Rental Homes, Thwarting Private Investors - WSJ
    Except:
    “Cincinnati government entity outbid more than a dozen investment firms to buy 194 homes in and around the city, a move meant to keep tenants in their homes and private investors out of their neighborhoods. The Port of Greater Cincinnati Development Authority agreed last month to pay $14.5 million for the properties scattered throughout Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati. While continuing to operate them as rentals, the agency said it intends to upgrade and eventually sell the homes to their primarily low-to-middle-income tenants …
    “The program is the most aggressive response yet by local officials looking to keep homes out of the hands of professional investors. Publicly traded companies, private-equity firms and thousands of smaller investors have been buying up single-family homes and renting them out, usually to people who can’t afford the steep down payments. Laura Brunner, CEO of the Port of Greater Cincinnati Development Authority, worries that a rental-industry ‘feeding frenzy’could lock families out of homeownership. Investors now account for about 18% of all U.S. home sales, up from about 8% in 2009 …”

    The Wall Street Journal - January 19, 2022
    Story By: Konrad Putzier and Will Parker
  • FIVE GEE
    Following up on yogibearbull's post above, this video was referenced by that M*post:
    It shows a zero visibility automated landing at the Milan International airport, and it's well worth a watch. At the beginning it seems as if there's no motion at all... be patient.

    If you happened to be flying on this aircraft would you be concerned that the radio altimeters were working correctly?
  • BREIT vs SREIT - What Investors Should Know
    Blackstone has taken a formerly high minimum fund designed for institutions and wealthy individuals and lowered the minimum to just $2,500. As reported in the WSJ recently, in so doing Blackstone has transformed the fund (BREIT) into a retail offering. I’m not currently interested in owning this. Just thought I’d toss it out if anyone has experience they’d care to share.
    Separately, I’m leary of real estate as an investment at this time due to bubble-like valuations. But I could be wrong.The appeal as an inflation hedge is hard to deny.
    https://www.millionacres.com/real-estate-investing/articles/breit-vs-sreit-what-investors-should-know/
  • FIVE GEE
    European 5G frequencies 3.4-3.8 GHz
    US 5G C-band frequencies (T, VZ) 3.70-3.98 GHz
    T-Mobile 5G frequency (band 41) 2.5 GHz
    Other frequencies are in use too, but the above are relevant for airplane instrumentations that have used 4+ GHz for decades. And only the US 5G C-band is near those, NOT T-Mobile 5G, nor European 5G.
  • What is COVID-19? Two years ago at MFO.....
    Two years ago: I don't know where at this forum, but I too, noted Covid on Jan. 21, 2020. I still have pics in my phone from the John Hopkins site when they began posting global Covid data. Anyway, you may choose to read some of the posts in this thread.
    NOTE: the MFO link below contains 3 sections. The link goes to page 3, and I can't adjust this fact. Click the number 1 (1,2,3; just to the top right of the text area ) to go to the beginning of the post.
    From the original post:
    I wrote on Jan. 21:
    As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
    If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
    Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
    I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
    Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.

    MFO February 2020

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • FIVE GEE
    The FCC surely knows exactly what kinds of services are assigned to use every part of the radio frequency spectrum, from the lowest frequencies (just below the AM broadcast band) to the highest. (I'm not certain what that high limit is these days, as I've been retired as a radio tech for some years now, and they keep finding uses for higher and higher frequencies.)
    The point here is that the FCC certainly knew well before the 5G C-Band was auctioned/assigned to the telcos that some of those frequencies were already in use for aviation purposes. That's their job. It's incomprehensible to me how all of this was allowed to happen, presumably without coordination between the FCC and the FAA.
    Evidently this was dealt with properly in at least some European countries, since we're being told that France, for example, is using 5G near airports with no problems.
    Something is really smelly here.
  • 7 bear market funds
    @stayCalm -
    Good luck. Let me know if you find the perfect hedge. I learned long ago that betting on both sides of a sports event (hoping you can get out of one position early) tends to be a loosing proposition. Mainly because there’s associated expenses (the casino’s “take”) on both sides, so you simply double your cost.
    Holding any hedge is costly even if it works. You’re essentially betting on both sides as I understand it.
    I started using DOG (100% inverse Dow) with some success back in October and noted it here. But the potential for loss seemed too great. So in November I started using TAIL (+.57% today). It only moves (inversely) about 50% of the major markets most days. However, historically it’s done much better after steep sell offs. I’m close to break even on the hold - probably out a few $$. Cost aside, it helps smooth out the daily value fluctuations. Hard to put a price on that. I like DRSK somewhat, but haven’t owned it.
    If these were fuels:
    DOG 100 octane
    TAIL 85 octane
    DRSK 60-70 octane
    Keep in mind that higher octane is more potent on the downside as well as upside.
    Haven’t looked at BEARX closely. But the 3% ER is a turn-off. Today it gained 1.25% which puts it about midway between the Dow and NASDAQ (on an inverse basis) - 100 octane.
  • TIPS,,,,, can anyone explain price decline YTD
    TIPS have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates.
    That seems a little odd. Do you have a source?
    The relationship between inflation adjusted (real) durations and nominal durations is somewhat complex. To simplify matters, we can assume the Fisher hypothesis holds literally:
    The Fisher hypothesis, which states that nominal interest rates rise point-for-point with expected inflation, leaving the real rate unaffected, is one of the cornerstones of neoclassical monetary theory.
    Barsky, The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forcastability and Persistence of Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics 19 (1987).
    That is, real rates don't change; nominal rates change in lock step with inflation. If inflation goes up by 1%, nominal rates go up by 1%. The real rate doesn't change. Since TIPS adjust yield for inflation, their prices should change only as a result of changes in real rates, which by assumption are nonexistent. Thus zero duration.
    [Laatsch and Klein] confirm that TIPS bonds have zero sensitivity to changes solely in expected inflation. By changes solely in expected inflation, we mean that the real rate remains unchanged and the nominal rate changes in accordance with the established Fisher [Publ. Am. Econ. Assoc. 11 (1896)] effect. [They] show that the first derivative of the TIPS price [i.e. duration] is zero whenever the real rate is held constant.
    Laatch and Klein, The Nominal Duration of TIPS Bonds, Review of Financial Economics Vol 14, Issue 1 (2005)
    They go on to say that even relaxing the Fisher hypothesis (so that real rates change) "if expected inflation changes ... zero-coupon TIPS prices ... will change by a smaller percentage than will zero-coupon ordinary Treasury bonds."
    Shorter duration for zero TIPS than for ordinary (nominal) zeros.
    Here's PIMCO's "translation": TIPS should perform better in a rising interest rate environment than conventional Treasury bonds because their inflation adjustments provide better price protection, but only when rates are rising as a result of increasing inflation.
    https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/understanding-treasury-inflation-protected-securities
  • 7 bear market funds
    @hank ty for your feedback.
    I'm about 55% in Alts and 25% US and Foreign equities. My alts are chugging along fine, no losses (getting Madoff'd certainly a risk). I am looking for a hedge to my equity exposure.
    I’ve searched and searched the possibilities in recent months. Most I track haven’t done that well - yet, at least. For example SWAN, DFND, DRSK, NUSI, NLSAX
    Of course, you can go “straight up” with something like BEARX or DOG. But it’s a gamble I wouldn’t be comfortable with. Very risky. The old line … “Markets can remain irrational longer than most investors can stay solvent.”
    I’m using TAIL in small amount (5% give / take). It’s a small timing play as well as a bit of portfolio insurance. I’d add a little more on strengthening indexes and sell off a bit should markets decline substantially..
    I’ve always thought the best defense was broad diversification across: asset classes, geo-political areas, risk levels (beta), and some cash or short duration bonds. Also, don’t overlook the “alternatives” mentioned in various threads.
    Hope this helps.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    I’m only interested in what her fund owns and how its holdings fits in with overall market valuations, action. sentiment. Cathie is little consequence to me. However, I have a degree of empathy for anyone down on their luck - even when the problems are of their own making.
    I’m not very religious. So would probably have a similar adverse reaction to someone mixing religion and business. Or religion and politics. Religion and education. Or religion and anything else. On the other hand, that alone would not deter me from owning her fund if it otherwise fit my needs / risk profile. It doesn’t currently, but another 25-35% down from here and it might.
    I still think the disrupter thesis has merit but valuations are nuts.
    After a 50% + fall from peak, I’m wondering where reasonable value might be. A lot depends on the economy, Fed policies, and perhaps even market psychology. That last one, psychology, has a lot to do with valuations running amuck here and elsewhere.
  • Interest Rate Hedge
    I tried to look through website and prospectus but the strategy was unclear - some combo of long Treasuries with options overlay.
    Looking at its chart, it does have positive correlation with 10-yr Treasury yields, but looking at some hi-lo values, friction/drag is awfully high. If sinks very rapidly but bounces slowly. Soon after inception, rates fell 21 bps (only) and it collapsed; but now rates are higher than at inception, and it is well under the inception value. Looks like a bad deal.
    Values 10-yr Yield
    51.25 1.575%
    38.46 1.354%
    42.31 1.655%
    37.38 1.550%
    40.97 1.725%
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PFIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71742655630