Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments @LewisBraham for future reference
https://www.usdebtclock.org/# ( has a separate clock for each state)
Also lists Medicare and Social security deficit, but I am unsure where those numbers come from.
While this is a bit off topic, the debt burden for state employee unfunded pensions and health care obligations are enormous and could make the debt ceiling fight look like a minor squabble, because it will pit "haves" vs "have-nots" and states cannot print their way out of it. Some "red states" are seriously affected.
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/07/07/states-unfunded-pension-liabilities-persist-as-major-long-term-challenge"After New Jersey (20.2% of personal income), unfunded pension obligations were highest in Illinois (
19.4%), Hawaii (
18.0%), Alaska (
16.3%), and New Mexico (
15.7%)."
Kentucky is
15.2 % South Carolina is
11%, Mississippi
14% . ( this does not include health care costs)
I completely agree that even successful CEOs ( and for that matter even non-profit hospital CEOs) pay etc is morally outrageous at thousands of times the average worker's salary.
However, I find it offensive when a state government ( CT is the state I know the most about) establishes a protected class of workers ( ie Unionized public sector employees) and endows them with wildly enormous benefits and perks ( out of proportion to their contribution to society) that are unavailable to private sector employees, and then requires private sector employees to pay for these benefits. Afraid to increase taxes to pay for it, the legislature then runs up enormous debt for future generations ( in CT's case about $70,000 per citizen in a state with a declining population).
Both political parties are equally guilty.
The same thing is true of the benefits that Legislators give themselves.
2023 Investment Plans @crashMy fav is Lagavulin, but I will choke down McCallan if I have to.
Unfortunately, since Covid I have had to, as I can't find Lagavulin
16 anywhere
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments @StaycalmUseful philosophical musings, but I have rarely seen concern for fairness in any policy making. There are many examples on both the right and the left. Lefties point to the tax structure etc but my favorite still has is the outrageous health insurance benefits (in CT work for the state for ten years, then quit and you still get lifetime health insurance!), retirement funds ( top 3 year average including overtime determines defined benefit) and high salaries a lot of state Government union workers continue to get, just for signing up ( and keeping) a job.
More to your point and what would happen in a default: I expect the reaction worldwide to an actual default would be so extreme that there would be little thought given to prioritizing in the days ahead who got paid with what was left.
After the Dow etc. drops
10000 to
15000 points overnight, ( and Gold goes to $5000 ) the debt ceiling will quickly be passed. Any legislator who votes against it will likely be run out of town.
@fred495To take maximum advantage of the possibility, I would buy Treasuries and Gold, but be prepared to trade into stocks quickly. Other commodities necessary for survival will probably also skyrocket, although since most are priced in Dollars, hard to tell.
I don't think accumulating a month's worth of expenses in dollar bills is a bad idea either, or stocking up on canned goods and booze. I will certainly fill up my gas tank. ATMs and credit cards will probably not work very well.
2023 Investment Plans 
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments Me, not worried at all, dip in various asset prices will be temporary at best.
Do you expect China & Japan selling their treasury bills cache? They hold more than 1 Trillion US$ worth of treasury bills each.
Saying - if you take a loan of say 100,000 US$- you are worried to pay but if you take loan of 1 Million, the banker is worried if it will get paid in time.
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
2023 Investment Plans sma3 7:18AM
"Thanks to OJ, I bought a small amount of ASML"
I deny everything. I have no recollection of even being there. Someone else hacked my name. The Secret Service erased all my emails. I had been drinking and didn't realize what I was doing. Also, I take the fifth.
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments These cat-and-mouse games in DC are dangerous in that mistakes can happen, or something unpredictable happens.
2 examples:
In September 2008, when the Treasury and the Fed decided to let Lehman go, EVERYONE went to sleep thinking that EVERYTHING foreseen had been taken care of and those were controllable. But NOBODY saw that the next day a run on the Reserve Primary money-market fund would start because it was holding lots of Lehman paper, and cascading market event started. The US had to promise to the Europeans later not to let stuff like Lehman ever again.
In August 2011, EVERYONE (Congress, WH, markets) thought that crisis was over because the debt-ceiling was passed in the last hours of August 1 (the House) and August 2 (the Senate) and stuff was signed off by the President. But then came the S&P downgrade of the US out of the blue on August 5, and the crisis spilled all over.
Stuff like this can happen when things are taken to the brink thinking that things will work out every time.
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments @Observant1 +
1 That analysis of the consequences seems correct. The U.S. has the largest most important securities' markets, and those markets are based off the "risk-free" rate of T-Bills. Every bond issued is priced at a certain spread above T-Bills or other Treasury bonds. If T-Bills somehow fail, everything else fails with it. Spreads on bonds would widen enormously, and equities would get crushed, too, especially U.S. equities as investors would lose faith in our nation. Yet I would maintain that despite the current political situation, this is a highly unlikely scenario. I think there will be brinkmanship, pushing things to the edge to make demands, but not going over the edge to actual default.
Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments "it would be catastrophic to cause a government default, and no party wants to be responsible for not approving a budget to prevent that."
But it's not a question of a "party" approving a budget, is it? It's the reality of some twenty anti-government nihilists who want nothing more than to bring the government, as it now exists, completely to it's knees; and who have nothing but contempt for the mainstream Republican party.
That small group of anti-intellectual subversives could care less about the economy or anything else. That was clearly demonstrated on January 6, 2021, and hasn't changed one bit. Trump didn't invent these people, but he certainly used them to his own ends.
Bloomberg Wall Street Week +1. I get Bloomberg TV LIVE on -air on my Roku-equipped television. No cable needed. When I watch WSW and Real Yield, I watch on my computer with the ad-blocker. I like that.
US Job Openings Top Forecasts, Keeping Pressure on Fed to Hike Thanks
@yogibearbull for clearing it up. My limited perception came from looking at TAIL. Supposed to hedge against volatility. Didn’t help me any when I held it early in 2022. Just looked and it’s down
10-
11% for past year. As LB noted for me way back, the bond holdings were what was hurting it. But interesting nonetheless with all the volatility now.
