Not a critique of anybody here -
Personally, if M* says a manager invests $1M+ in a $B AUM fund, it does not impress me. More often than not a Manager's yearly compensation from the fund far exceeds their investment in the fund. (Some fund managers start a fund with $5M of their own money and I can treat that as constituting informational value.)
Mutual fund prospectus mandates are usually very broad. Even when they say small cap, they can still drift to the edge of mid cap or into micro cap.
Why some managers are found not to do a better risk management job than the rest of us? They suffer from the same human limitations as the rest of us. Moreover, obtaining knowledge and acting on it are entirely different skills.
IMO, it is better to find managers that do a better job than others. As an aside, I am willing to give managers a pass for their performance in 2020.
As an example, I would say David Giroux does a good risk management job. Of course, he has to contend with the size of PRWCX, a limitation.

@larryB, roger re lack of sense and perspective
@rono, this might help; doubt it, but might:
https://www.bu.edu/eci/files/2019/10/Principles_2e_Ch31.pdf

Most economists use the rule of thumb that as long as the rate of increase in government’s debt is not significantly greater than that of GDP for several years in a row it does not represent a severe problem for the economy.
etc.

Summary
° Analyzing the US (and broadly, global developed market) sovereign debt market.
° A nuanced overview of why and how public debt matters in various ways, and why it becomes a problem over 100% of GDP.
° Bondholders and cash-savers are unlikely to maintain purchasing power over the coming decade.
Lyn Alden Schwartzer on SeekingAlpha.

Thinking gets a bit muddled with advancing years. Caution looms. 2007-2009 was a “hoot” for many of us. Those under 60 or 65 at the time made out very well in the end, buying in at lower prices or (in my own case) converting a substantial sum to a Roth. Alas, “Father Time …. You can’t buy down like you did 10-15 years ago. Losses sting more.
Good thread. Thanks for all who contribute.
The markets? Hell … I don’t know. My guess is there are both bargains and trap-doors out there. Spread it around. Don’t buy what’s been hot. Consider foreign markets. Maintain a buffer in cash or short duration fixed income. Personally, I’m wary enough to maintain a small counter-position in TAIL - lending some credence to @rono’s concerns.

Howdy folks,
@junkster. Good to hear from you. Hope this finds you safe and well. Not sure what his rationale for TSD as a 'metric' and not sure that it works. That said, I learned about Momentum Investing from Gary and that is hardly out of date. When I actively invest, I use MI. Hell, I progressive bet at blackjack in the casinos. Pretty much the same.
@DavidF, and so good to hear from you Sir. So many memories. Remember Maureen? Very knowledgeable investor on Salil's board. She stopped posting after 9/11. We assumed she died. But ALL of these peeps taught me a lot just like so many participants do today. This, Sir, is how a discussion board should be run. I always make moves in December to reflect taxes and yearly rebalancing. I added some more natural resources and whatnot. A wee bit of junior silver miners. And, for the record, I didn't react to the first TSD but noted it. TSD or not, there is so much that can go wrong with this market and at 73, I'm really don't wish to play. I saw what the dot.com meltdown did to my wife's 401K from which she had to take withdrawals. Long expired. And as a disclosure, this is all 'on the margin'. We still own equities.
@LewisBraham, You are correct. I'm sure that your market decisions are based on many factors and so are mine. I was curious about the board's reaction. I'm a fundamentalist, a professional long range planner, and been reading Dalios. ;-) My decision to lighten up was based many things that might go wrong and many things that are going wrong. Sorry, but I really don't like the looks of things and decided to take some money off the table.
@davidmoran, two wars, civil war, $30T debt, same shit - different day. The natives are growing restless. I was no longer comfortable enough to be as exposed to the market.
@larryB, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds."
Everyone stay safe,
rono

Inflation numbers have been coming in high now, for more than a year, but for much of the early part of 2021, bankers, investors and politicians seemed to be either in denial or casually dismissive of its potential for damage. Initially, the high inflation numbers were attributed to the speed with the economy was recovering from COVID, and once that excuse fell flat, it was the supply chain that was held responsible. By the end of 2021, it was clear that this bout of inflation was not as transient a phenomenon as some had made it out to be, and the big question leading in 2022, for investors and markets, is how inflation will play out during the year, and beyond, and the consequences for stocks, bonds and currencies.

inflation-and-its-ripple

+100 @yogibearbull - I don't understand it.

MS is strange in that its strategists are among the most cautious, but several of its funds are very aggressive. These MS funds have been hit badly in the current market that peaked in Feb 2021 for hype, and Nov 2021 or yearend for the rest. One can say that this independence of MS fund managers from MS strategists is good, but others can say if MS managers don't listen to MS strategists, should others?
GMO is also known for saying that its fund managers don't follow its big talking heads (Grantham and Inker) but GMO has suffered.

A really outstanding issue. Thx so much to the new team for stepping up! I was really worried about losing the newsletters. Thx to David also for all you do to keep the site running. This is the best site in the mutual fund universe for good thoughtful discussion

+1.

Historically, VG has quietly changed external advisors or their allocations, but it famously did high profile firing of GMO and AllianceBernstein. I don't think VG needs so many external advisors (now 6 for Explorer) to keep them on their toes and 2-3 should be enough for that.
VG also did high profile firing of indexer MSCI in favor of unknown CRSP almost 10+ years ago.

Well, sure, but I suspect that for those funds which have outside advisers, Vanguard is purposefully slotting multiple managers, not just to provide diversification of returns, but as a very clever means of controlling costs: If a fund has 4 managers, Vanguard can threaten to yank any manager off the fund if those managers don't agree to keep fees low. -- its all about keeping those managers in a state of relative disadvantage when it comes to renegotiating fees. More managers keeps the fee levels down.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't believe cost control is Vanguard's primary goal when it hires multiple subadvisors for a fund.
The following quotes are from Dan Newhall who leads the oversight and manager search team at Vanguard.
"More broadly, in relation to our multi-manager approach, we believe that combining distinct, yet complementary managers provides the potential for both a more predictable pattern of returns and lowers volatility."
"If you can start with a proposition that’s lower cost, then you have already shifted the odds in your favor.
But low cost in and of itself is insufficient – we are not simply trying to find cheap managers.
It’s [about] low cost and high quality."
Link

Vanguard often has too many subadvisors for its active funds.
I prefer only one or two subadvisors on a fund.
I don't like it when there are "too many cooks in the kitchen."

--
Well, sure, but I suspect that for those funds which have outside advisers, Vanguard is purposefully slotting multiple managers, not just to provide diversification of returns, but as a very clever means of controlling costs: If a fund has 4 managers, Vanguard can threaten to yank any manager off the fund if those managers don't agree to keep fees low. -- its all about keeping those managers in a state of relative disadvantage when it comes to renegotiating fees. More managers keeps the fee levels down.

@hank - how's your stake in PRPFX holding up?

PRPFX? Not bad. Off 3.7% YTD. Up an average of 8.5% over 5 years. It’s quite diversified, but gold, silver & miners have the greatest impact because they’re so volatile. Exposure to the Swiss Franc has hurt a bit. Helped by natural resources. Hurt by stocks & bonds. After transferring it to Fido I shaved off 30+% to allocate the $$ elsewhere. Probably worked for the better. It’s a hard fit for a portfolio. I keep it as 1 of 4 alternative funds. All total they comprise 30%.
I don’t mind volatility in some assets if I understand the rationale. With PSMM it’s the downside emanating, I think, from fixed income that has me concerned. Bonds may best be described today as “Return free risk.”
Here’s PRPFX’s chart from Lipper.

+1 (I tend to not notice much …)
From Yogi’s attachment: “ - Added support for backup and restore via Dropbox. You can access this feature by going to DejaOffice Settings -> Backup & Restore, then choosing "Use Dropbox" when prompted. Restoring a backup file no longer requires a DejaOffice restart”

Thanks @MrRuffles. You aren’t confused. I was. I’ve lost track of the years. Checking the App store, the DejaOffice program was purchased in July 2011. It updates frequently of course. So have used it more like 11 or 12 years.
It’s hard to imagine life before ipads and iphones. I remember buying something produced by Dell maybe 20 years ago that fit in a shirt pocket and stored contact information. No phone function. Used to actually “wow” some people when I’d whip it out to look up a phone number, flight information or other stuff.
And my 5th generation ipad is running IOS 15.2.1 With automatic updates which load overnight I pay no attention. Probably should. No. Not planning to reach out to anyone at this time. I ran a test this morning and was able to save the files to DropBox and than retrieve them on a different device. And, as I suspect you know, all the contents of ipads (including files) can be backed up to Apple’s cloud. But if necessary, I will reach out.
I see 2 possibilities here (1) It’s a software glitch that will clear up in time or (2) Apple notified developers of the change months back - because I first noticed the “Drop Box” backup option in the Deja App only a month or two ago. They may have added it in anticipation of the change, There’s also the possibility that using an email other than icloud would work. But that’s a last resort because most of them scan your email. I’d rather trust Apple with my trove of data.
PS - There appears to be a “contact us” option inside the Deja app. If I run into any issues I’ll contact them. This has been an extremely reliable app.

@wxman123. I too would like to capture “decent yield”. I wonder if you think that the bond market has already priced in all of the rate increases the Fed is seeming committed to? I wonder how long the short term pain might last? One can only wonder.

@hank I’m a little confused by your post - iPads have only been around since 2010 and the most current version of iOS is 15. Have you reached out to the developer of DejaOffice to let them know of your issues?

I still own some gold and silver, IAU and SLV, but I believe they are both slightly negative YTD. I swore off miners years ago.

The gold and precious metals miners have stunk for a long time. I know because I have one toe in them. But RIO is industrial metals mostly. Exposure to the rare earth metals used in electric car batteries, etc. Not recommending it. Just making the distinction. I’ve been lucky with the few individual stocks I’ve waded into the past 8-10 months. But expect I’ll get my head handed to me on a platter one of these days. There’s a reason mutual funds came to exist

Hi folks,
Gary Smith (not the Fox guy) that used to post on the earlier board and who wrote, 'How I Trade for a Living', described True Selling Days as when all the major indices are down more than 1%. We had one on Jan 14 and another one on the 2nd. These were metrics that he used to start selling. I noted the first, but only started buying some Inflation Protected bonds. Ever since I have been further easing back on equity exposure.
I am not suggesting that anyone do as I am doing, we're in difference spaces with different goals and objectives. That said, I don't like anything about this market at this time.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono

Hi Ron. Hope all is well. Unfortunately an outdated indicator from a market from days gone by from an outdated book written almost 23 years ago.

Hi folks,
Gary Smith (not the Fox guy) that used to post on the earlier board and who wrote, 'How I Trade for a Living', described True Selling Days as when all the major indices are down more than 1%. We had one on Jan 14 and another one on the 2nd. These were metrics that he used to start selling. I noted the first, but only started buying some Inflation Protected bonds. Ever since I have been further easing back on equity exposure.
I am not suggesting that anyone do as I am doing, we're in difference spaces with different goals and objectives. That said, I don't like anything about this market at this time.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono