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The eurozone economy is set to grow a little more slowly than previously forecast next year, but even that downbeat projection could prove optimistic if exporters face higher U.S. tariffs, according to new forecasts from the European Union.
All of the eurozone’s major economies are projected to see steady growth next year, despite political and fiscal challenges in France and a likely downturn this year in Germany. Spain is set to outpace its peers, expanding 3% this year and 2.3% in 2025, according to the forecasts laid out Friday in the commission’s autumn forecasts.
The European Commission further said-
 • The Euro nations should book an increase in their gross domestic output of 1.3% in 2025
 • This year, the currency union should grow by 0.8%
 • A chillier trade landscape represents a major headwind to the eurozone’s economic recovery
 • The ravages of a changing climate also threaten Europe
 • Inflation should average 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025
 • Lower growth means less state revenue, adding to the strain on EU governments’ budgets
 • Still-high deficits and steeper interest payments will keep the debt-to-GDP ratio climbing
The dimmer outlook for growth and inflation will likely reassure the ECB that it can continue to lower borrowing rates, albeit at a gradual pace. The forecasts are the first since May and in the meantime, the ECB has begun a cycle of lower interest rates, taking the deposit rate to 3.25% from 4%, where it had stood since last September. The bank has indicated it will continue to trim borrowing costs as it looks to ease some of the burden on investment and activity.
The eurozone’s manufacturing sector in particular is struggling to recover from the blow it was dealt in 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices. It again produced less in the third quarter of the year compared with the previous quarter, figures showed this week. Compared with January 2022, just before the invasion, eurozone industrial production has fallen a steep 6%.
While the European authorities base their projections on existing policy, a looming trade battle could add insult to injury for the beleaguered industrial sector and further depress eurozone growth. President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 10% on European goods imported into the U.S. in what he says would be a measure to safeguard American manufacturers and manufacturing jobs.
Those tariffs could cost Germany some 1% of its GDP, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned this week. And the reverberations would likely be felt across eurozone industry, hitting smaller suppliers. Nearly 25 billion euros’ worth of German exports would be at risk in the event of an out-and-out trade war next year, according to projections from insurer Allianz. French and Italian exports would also suffer a major blow.
Economists are nevertheless divided on the effects of potential new tariffs, with some even suggesting a stronger U.S. dollar could outweigh the higher duties and boost demand for European goods.

Confidence in the eurozone’s economic outlook fell back as sluggish growth weighed on sentiment, with little hope of a major rebound ahead, surveys of households and business showed.
The European Commission said Thursday that its economic sentiment indicator for the currency area edged down to 95.2 this month from 95.7 in July, thwarting economists’ expectations of a slight uptick in sentiment.
Consumer confidence fell back, as did sentiment in industry and construction.
“Managers’ uncertainty about their future business situation declined notably in the services sector, and to a lesser extent also in industry and the retail trade,” the commission said.
Worsening sentiment suggests a frosty reception to the trade deal reached with the U.S. at the end of last month, which will see a baseline 15% tariff applied to E.U. exports. That will hit the bloc’s exporters, notably in powerhouse Germany, where the economy shrunk 0.3% over the second quarter amid tariff turmoil and underlying weaknesses.
In France, meanwhile, the minority government is likely to collapse in the coming weeks after premier Francois Bayrou called a confidence vote he is likely to lose, further exacerbating the country’s deep-seated fiscal problems. A recourse to the International Monetary Fund is “a risk that stands in front of us,” finance minister Eric Lombard warned.

@mskursh- Having used American Funds primarily for almost fifty years to build our retirement position we now have simplified to MMKT, CD, and Treasury holdings at Schwab. Having used many different American Funds over the years, I'm curious as to which one that you've chosen for your simplification situation.
Thanks- OJ