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BUY - SELL - PONDER - MAY 2020

Hi guys,

Hope all is well with you all. I was just listening to WealthTrack.....Jason Trennert. I really like him. I guess because I agree with a lot of what he says.

We're still in lockdown in PA. The Dukester and I are getting rammy. All the rain makes it worse. Have done nothing this week as buy or sell. Right now, I'm down 7.4% for the year. Am looking for market to go down, then will buy again.

Also, on another note, has anybody read the book, "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe? Or do you have any comments on it? I was thinking about getting it to read.

Have made a few lists on the portfolio. If the market goes down, buys are: CTFAX, CIPMX, FIFNX, FSCSX, FSPHX, FXIAX, PGTAX, and UMBMX. So those are funds I will be watching. Now for the Santa doesn't come here anymore list. This is really my sell list, and they will be sold at some point and never bought again. FMIJX - best thing about this fund is their reports. YAFFX - value right; fell like a rock....no value there. I was worried when Daddy left. PRDGX - not really against this fund other than it is an index hugger.

So, saying all that, this will be my last posting of Buy - Sell - Ponder. I do hope someone picks it up. There's value in a space of watching what people do. It needs someone more chatty.....and a tech guy to post charts and stuff. Hopefully someone will give that upside.
God bless
the Pudd
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Comments

  • It needs someone more chatty.....and a tech guy to post charts and stuff. Hopefully someone will give that upside.
    I guess that leaves me out !
    Pudd thank you & Duke.

    Have a good weekend, Derf

  • Sold a few odds and ends I picked up in March after locking in some short-term cap gains that more than cover upwards of 1-2+ years of dividends.

    I originally planned those purchases to be long-term holds but I'm having second thoughts about that @ the moment and moving to control exposures/risk.
  • Note to Puddnhead - I used to listen to Financial Sense Newshour a lot and The Fourth Turning got a lot of air time. That was long ago. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/the-fourth-turning-skies-darkening

    I should say that FSN convinced me to overweight oil & minerals, which I did to a small extent and it proved to be disastrous! It was my own DD - in 2009,10 I thought gas would go right back to $4.00 a gallon. C’est la vie
  • Hi Rbrt,
    Thank you for the link. The book seems a little too dark for me. I think I'll pass, but thanks for your time.
    Also added to FSDAX this week. It's my worst fund. Will add more on weakness. Also sold some funds on Friday due to the market run up. Will deploy the money at lower levels. Sold FNSTX, BTMFX, YCGEX.....had pocket change losses. I just think the market is ahead of itself.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • i sold out of AKREX after having just bought it. lost 30$. took half of proceeds and bought more RLSFX. both were and are tiny % amounts of my portfolio. am sitting tight on COTZX but might buy another slug next week.
  • edited May 9
    Added more to vanguard 2045. VDE a few days ago. Took new positions in VONG [Thx Dr DavidrMoran for recs]
  • linter, I have been an investor in AKREX/AKRIX for about three years and it has rewarded my very well. It is "low" risk and it's metrics are outstanding.

    Just curious, why would you sell out of it now? It has held up fairly well, and remember it is not a typical "LCG" fund.
  • edited May 9
    Hi @linter, Recently as of May 1, 2020 COTZX & CTFAX changed it's equity weighting scale. With this, I am now rethinking just how much of it I am wanting to hold as it has now become more aggressive. This may help increase long term fund performace. It now takes on more risk in raising its threshold equity allocation from 10 percent to 50 percent before adjusting for the movement of the 500 Index.

    You can find its new equity weighting scale under the Asset Allocation section in the below link ... Fact Sheet button.

    https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1
  • edited May 9
    Hi @Old_Skeet,
    Thanks for your link to COTZX & CTFAX. I have been curious about his fund since it was noted here at MFO recently. M* lists it as a 15-30% equity allocation fund, while Columbia lists it’s Mar 31st allocation as 70% equity / 30% FI. M* shows its’ equity investment now as 62%. Here is their strategy for how they change allocations:
    https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/content/columbia/pdf/LIT_DOC_3C97987F.PDF
    Very confusing and unfortunately I’m losing interest.
    Best to all - Brian
  • edited May 9
    mcm: i just don't have a lot of faith in this market and, if that's the case, i'd rather be in something that held up better into march.

    https://ishort.ink/BTTq

    that said, the posts by old skeet and level5 have given me a certain amount of pause regarding CTFAX.

  • Hi Linter,
    I agree with you. No faith in the market. Also, AKREX was crossed off a watch list due to finance sector weighting. It's also why YCGEX was sold. Too many maybe(s) in this area. Also, CTFAX is at 52-week highs. So I would be not a buyer of it. Also, any thoughts on CANNX, KAIBX or FARMX?
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited May 9
    hmmmm. no thoughts. i already made all the money on pot stocks that i think i can and don't want to go back there. day trading on hot tips nearly killed me, though i did come out ahead by like 25k. too kooky. but that was a few years back and maybe things have settled down since then.

    as re CTFAX (and RLSFX, for that matter) -- yup, 52 week highs. which makes me a FOMO investor of the most worstest kind. going to keep a short tether on both, however. or at least i hope to.
  • Some of the discussion around AKREX reminded me of this quote:
    “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.” – Peter Lynch.Jul 16, 2019
    AKREX is a growth fund and has been for a while. If you believe it is following financials, compare it to a broad financial ETF like XLF. Akre has outperformed that financial sector ETF by 28% YTD. It's rated low risk-high return by M*. It has one of the best upside/downside capture ratios in the business and again proved it's metal in this latest selloff.

    But buyers and sellers are what make a market. I add to this fund in March after selling DSENX. Fits my risk tolerance much better.
  • How old are you, Mike?
  • CTFAX May have found the secret sauce or sauces as since 2013 on one heck of a run !
    Derf
  • Hi MikeM,
    I will only compare it (i.e., AKREX) to what I bought off the watch list because that's what the watch list is for. I bought CTFAX and FSCSX. At this space and time, I do not think this area is a buy. Again....just my opinion.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • @linter, mentally about 21. Physically, 66.
  • Nice @Puddnhead. Looks like both of those funds are doing well at the moment.
  • edited May 9
    @_sir MikeM...I feel you 55% of the time, 47 yo but mentally 28 yo, physically 65 yo (especially after long hrs/days of work).


    Been adding more energy vde vang2045, and start new positions in biogen/vong few days ago.

    Holding on for the rough volatile rides ahead
  • edited May 10
    Hi @Level5, For someone that has not followed the fund I can understand why one could become confused. It took me, years back, a while before I fully understood how the fund works. Know, I am not trying to change your thoughts on the fund ... Just, trying to help bring a better understanding on how it works from my past experiences.

    Here is the link to the fund. https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1

    First, know that it has a 31 day trading rule and it can not change position direction once established until 31 days have expired.

    Second, to see how the fund is positioned follow the link and open The Asset Allocation Update which will be a pfd. On this pfd you will find the last six asset allocation changes the fund made with the last one taking place on 4/28/2020 where it moved to a 35% stock / 65% bond allocation.

    Third, once annually (May 1st) the fund managers set the trading ranges for the fund going forward for the coming year. With this, on May 1st of 2020 the fund made an asset allocation change from a baseline 10% equity allocation to a 50% baseline equity allocation before adjusting for the movement of the 500 Index. Since, the 31 day traiding rule is in effect the fund will not make the actual declared adjustment until the 31 days has expired from the date of the last asset allocation change. This will be done somewhere around May 29th.

    For me it was a risk off ... risk on ... fund holding. Now with the baseline asset allocation change from a 10% baseline equity allocation to a 50% equity allocation it is no longer, from my perspective, a risk off ... risk on ... fund. With this, I have it under review, myself, to determine just how much of it I will continue to hold going forward.

    I hope my above comment bring some clairty for a better understanding of how the fund positions.

    Skeet
  • old skeet, thanks for lucid comment always appreciated by your devoted followers.
  • Hi Skeeter,
    Thanks for your update on the fund. Your third point I was not aware of, which to me is important. As it moves from a more conservative fund to a moderate or balanced one, it could be more aggressive depending on which bond and stock funds it holds. As you know, they are subject to monthly tweaking. So, on the next market drop, one could be staring eyes wide open at a very different fund.......no.......a fund with many moving parts.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. Skeeter, please correct me if I am mistaken.
  • edited May 10
    Hi @Old_Skeet, thanks so much for the clarification on CTFAX. As you and @Puddnhead noted, the third point is a game changer. CTFAX seems to have a multi-dimensional strategy; both clever and complex. I will be keeping it on my watch list for now.
    My best to all. - Brian
  • edited May 10
    @Puddnhead,

    My take is that fund has been now positioned in a more aggressive posture. I'm thinking that this is because of recent FOMC's interest rate and easing policy. Plus, the Fed's have and will probally continue to inject money into the financial system. This no doubt will lift most all asset prices especially equities. Therefore, to caputure this anticipated uptrend the fund managers have elected to make the fund more aggressive in the coming year. Is this good? Or, Bad? It depends. I held the fund in my hybrid income sleeve because of its normal conserative risk off positioning that could load equities during a stock market pullback, For me it was a risk off ... risk on ... fund. With it's new allocation moving from a low of 10% equity to a new low allocation of 50% equity it is ... for me ... no longer a risk off ... risk on fund.

    At the end of the quarter I'll be reassigning CTFAX to another investment sleeve within my portfolio. Most likely to the domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth & income section of my portfolio.
  • It seems that CTFAX CAN make changes in less than 31 days depending on the S&P. Its just that to avoid wash sales it cant have an increase then a decrease in stocks in less than 31 days. Also not clear about what impact the baseline has insofar as in the brief period between 3/16/20 and 4/28/ 20 the fund's stock allocation shifted between 35% and and 70%.
  • edited May 10
    @wxman123, The new baseline asset allocation can be found on The fund's Fact Sheet. As of 5-1-20 it is 50 percent. Under the old Fact Sheet it was 10 percent.

    The 31 day trading rule is to prevent the fund from having wash sales. The fund's 31 day trading rule also prevents it from changing investment direction for 31 days from its last buy or sell transaction.
  • With this change in investment policy, CTFAX moves to the 50%-70% allocation group, which includes VWELX PRWCX FBALX JABAX VTMFX among others. That's pretty stiff competition, so at this point I'll watch CTFAX but I have no plans to invest additional funds.
  • edited May 11
    And how many of those others are so intentionally contrarian, as is CTFAX? Would a comparison be quite difficult to even do? (Also, add DODBX to that category.)
  • I would argue that CTFAX is no longer contrarian. Based on the fund's 5/1/2020 Asset Allocation Update, the fund will always hold at least a 50% stock allocation. With the previous guidelines, the fund had the option to hold only a 10% stock allocation once the S&P 500 reached a predetermined threshold. As @Old_Skeet mentioned above its no longer a risk off, risk on fund, and should not be classified in the 15%-30% Allocation group, but rather,say, in the Tactical Asset group.
  • Old_Skeet said:

    @wxman123, The new baseline asset allocation can be found on The fund's Fact Sheet. As of 5-1-20 it is 50 percent. Under the old Fact Sheet it was 10 percent.

    The 31 day trading rule is to prevent the fund from having wash sales. The fund's 31 day trading rule also prevents it from changing investment direction for 31 days from its last buy or sell transaction.


    Maybe it's my reading skills...but as I read it the 31 day rule would not prevent the fund from increasing or decreasing stock allocation more frequently than 31 days. The rule only prevents an increase followed by a quick decrease, which would trigger a wash sale. An increase or decrease on two consecutive days would not have that effect. As the prospectus says: "The second exception is a “31-day Rule;” in order to reduce taxable events and minimize short-term trading if the S&P 500®Index price moves back and forth across a band in the allocation table, after the Fund has increased its percentage allocation to either stock funds or bond funds, it will not decrease that allocation for at least 31 days."

    Also, according to the prospectus, the baseline increase is the current implementation of the strategy that has always been in place. Granted, the notion that the market has been "expensive" for the past 18 years (hence the former 10% stock baseline) and is now "normal" (50%) seems a bit disingenuous, but that's what the fund says. It also says that it can revisit this allocation more frequently then annually under unusual circumstances.
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