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Prices continued to climb at a brutally rapid pace in September, with a key inflation index increasing at the fastest pace in 40 years, bad news for the Federal Reserve as it struggles to wrestle the cost of living back under control.
Overall inflation climbed 8.2 percent in the year through September, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report. Even more worrisome, underlying inflation trends are headed in the wrong direction. After stripping out fuel and food — which are volatile and removed to get a better sense of the trajectory — prices climbed 6.6 percent in the year through September. That was the quickest rate since 1982.
Markets swung wildly after the report, with stocks falling sharply initially but then surging higher as investors struggled to digest what the data meant for the future. The S&P 500 index closed up 2.6 percent.
Economists have predicted that the economy will slow and inflation will moderate in the months ahead. But they have been expecting an imminent cool-down for the past 18 months, and the data have repeatedly proved them wrong. Worried that rapid inflation might last, Fed officials have been clear that they plan to raise interest rates to a point where they are constraining the economy and hold them at a high level until price increases are clearly moderating. Officials have estimated that they will lift borrowing costs to about 4.6 percent by the end of 2023.
After making three unusually large rate increases, officials had suggested they would debate slowing down in November. The fresh inflation data makes another big move more likely, and economists said it could make it difficult for the Fed to slow down by the end of the year, as policymakers had previously forecast.
It is too early to know how the Fed’s thinking will evolve by its final meeting of the year on Dec. 13 and 14. Even if inflation shows little sign of cracking by then, policymakers may want to give themselves time to see the cumulative effect of their rate increases, as well as fallout from monetary policy adjustments taking place around the world. But for now, just about every sign they are receiving from the inflation data is discouraging. Economists said there were signs in the inflation data itself that price increases might be growing more entrenched.
Fed policy takes time to work, and most economists would not expect this year’s adjustments to be pulling inflation drastically lower yet. But because rate moves work by slowing consumer demand, one might expect their effects to show up in everyday consumer goods and services categories first. That has yet to happen. From restaurant meals to cigarettes to stationery products, prices continue to climb briskly, suggesting consumers are still willing to pay up.
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Comments
CPI Levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOyx
CPI Annual % Changes https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UOyI
They need stronger lenses to see it all clearly, and maybe by now, the Fed also is afflicted with astigmatism that wasn't diagnosed before.
Already we see that different measures are favored by different groups - CPI by the public (and Treasury for I-Bonds), CPI-W by Social Security, PCE by the Fed, PPI by businesses. There are talks going on to revise several of these.