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Bonds, lower yields/ nicely higher prices, The week that was, November 28- December 2, 2022

edited December 3 in Fund Discussions
Well, to soon to know, eh? But a decent week for most bond types, relative to the past numerous months of bond prices falling. Monday and Friday found slightly higher yields, but the middle of the week found lower yields and, of course; higher pricing. The weekly positive price moves below are a substantial change from the trend.

@Junkster noted recently: "Regardless we have three major catalysts on the horizon that could answer if this time the bottom is really in. Next week’s Fed meeting/comments, next week’s October employment report, and maybe the real biggie, the election results week after next." This was in response to an equity thread post. I suggest the same applies to the path of bond prices. How long and hard will the FED push higher interest rates? Will they be able to stop when needed following lagging indicators about economic health? We and the markets continue to be impacted by global tensions, climate changes that are affecting crop production, perhaps push back against FED interest rate policy from U.S. politicians and business leaders and a U.S. dollar that remains strong globally. Lots of possibilities, eh?
Anyway, I continue to follow bond actions; in an ongoing attempt to identify any sustained trends.
Perhaps you may find the numbers of value for your investing thoughts/considerations going forward.


For the week, October 24- October 28, 2022

--- AGG = + 1.55% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = - .02% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.22% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = + .88% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = + 1.8% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = + 1.2% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- STPZ = + ,22%(UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = + 4.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = + 3.9% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = + 5.5% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = + 6.2% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = - 7.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = + 11.3% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (effectively, about a 3x version of EDV etf)
--- BAGIX = + 1.57% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund) FOR REFERENCE
***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
--- HYG = + 2.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = + 2.4% (corp. bonds, various quality)

Remain curious,
Catch

Comments

  • edited October 30
    I picked out 5 representative samples to plot,
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IEF&compare=AGG,HYG,LQD,TIP&id=p78281312714

    However, the CME FedWatch, based on the fed fund futures market, shows 75, 50, 50 bps hikes ahead at Nov, Dec, Feb FOMC to 4.75-5.00% terminal fed fund rate, then pause. IMO, the Fed pivot/pause/wait-and-see language may start to creep into the FOMC Statements and/or Powell's pressers.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

    The bond market volatility ^MOVE is also quite high now; the stock volatility ^VIX not so much.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE?p=^MOVE&.tsrc=fin-srch
  • Thanks @yogibearbull . I do watch MOVE, too; but did not place into the list.
  • @catch. Thanks for your report.
  • edited November 29
    A bit late, but if you want to look at some prior week numbers. Various contributors here have expressed reasons for lower yields last week. Lower CPI may have been largest push for lower yields, but; not unlike the markets in general, the bond area will remain in FLUX. The FED will play with the numbers to choose their path going forward, relative to rate increases.
    MANY bond areas had large one week positive pricing moves, so one made money in the pricing area.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated report in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.

    For the WEEK/YTD, November 7- November 11, 2022

    --- AGG = + 2.3% / -13.9% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = + .024% / -1.9% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.69% / -4.2% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = + 1.78% / -9.8% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = + 2.7% / -15.4% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = + 1.7% / -12.7% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = + ,64% / -4.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = + 4.3% / -32% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = + 3.9% / -33% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = + 4.8% / -41% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = + 4.6% / -43% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = - 7.6% / +103% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = + 11.3% / -74% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = + 2,26% / -14.9% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = + 2.13% / -10.9% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = + 5.4% / -19.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.75% yield, Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Which long bond funds would you use when the Fed pauses raising rates and perhaps cutting the rate, and why?
  • edited November 14
    Hi @Sven et al
    The current % data is two weeks after the first data reported in the October 24- October 28 period of this thread. As the current large price percent gains are likely mostly reflected from a more favorable CPI report (FED backing off???), which caused yields to move down a lot within a short time frame.
    Yield % changes last week:
    --- 30 year = -6.5%
    --- 10 year = -7.3%
    --- 5 year = -7.5%
    --- 1 year = -3.3%

    SO, for me; I would/will watch price changes in the Gov't issues in the list; if it was understood/known/announced that the FED was slowing down rate increases.
    AND looking at the moves from last week, the top gainers were the longer duration issues.....10 years +. And if one has some sleepy money laying about, you could take a walk on the wild side and go for TMF. This etf will fly high.......although for how long would not be known and the investment would need to be carefully watched.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • edited November 14
    Brainard mentioned today that a slower rate hike pace is possible. Really need more data point to get the rest to buy in. Timing is the question.

    Seeing big layoffs in tech companies but it may take some time before it apprears in the unemployment #.

    If I choose TMF, it will be a wild ride.

  • @Sven et al
    This chart is TBT (bond bear, yields going higher etf) vs TMF (bond bull, yields going lower etf). For whatever reason, the chart will not allow me to set the dates I want to use.
    So, at the chart bottom where the number of chart days is shown (253 days)....double click the days and then type in 723 and then ENTER. This will take the chart to the beginning of 2020 and just before the melt in the early spring of 2020.
    You'll be able to readily view when the FED had to unload on rates to stop the Covid market melt and the action of TMF. In the shorter term not shown by this chart, those who were/are immaculate traders have been able to provide large profits with trading only between TMF and TBT.
  • @catch22, use SharpCharts to set dates. I have just used the default 1 yr.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=TMF&compare=TBT&id=p77597575994
  • Hi @yogibearbull
    I can try that, too. I've not had a problem loading "Permalink" before with the chart I posted. Something wasn't happy with my pc or their system at the time. I wanted to show the extreme swings from the Covid spring 2020 until now.
    Thank you.
  • edited November 14
    @catch22 and @yogibearbull, thank you again. You guys are awesome.
  • edited November 29
    As 'Roseanne Roseannadanna' (portrayed by the late, great Gilda Radner) was known for saying in the 1970's SNL news: "...it just goes to show you, it's always something — if it ain't one thing, it's another."

    Staying with thoughts and reactions of bond markets since the melt of 2008, and the continuing aspect of 'this time is different'; which I believe still applies, those with the big strings to pull, will continue to attempt to fix the problems. Not that this hasn't happened in past decades; but those decades are now for reference and study; and for me, are not so meaningful for trying to preserve and improve one's capital position, here and now.

    Nov. 15 PPI down .2%, a baby trend. And missiles strike Poland
    , killing 2. Not Russian missiles? Thursday...some folks talk about a peak/terminal rate of 7%??? Is the FED gonna break the back of the economy, with what ever it takes?

    The FED board are a chatty bunch, eh? Although, I don't have a degree in psychology; one may observe over the years, that often when folks become excessively chatty about something they're connected to; in part, it may be from being nervous, twitchy. So do they have their fingers crossed behind their backs, that their plan will actually work and they won't look like fools at a future date? Some inflation is taken care of by the consumer not willing to pay a price. Other inflation sectors in the current environment, are not readily able to be controlled by the FED or the consumer. As there are no real rules to all phases of the game, perhaps I'll keep my fingers crossed, too; and hope to spot a trend here or there.

    What is Terminal fund rate?
    The terminal rate is the level at which the Fed is expected to stop raising interest rates.
    I'm imaging the FED using CPI or an index gauge they choose and increasing interest rates until the two numbers are near the same value; and then take a look around at the results, to determine the next move. I.E. : CPI at 5.5%, stop the terminal rate at 5.5%.

    Numerous recent posts have discussed the yield curve and other factors that may be affecting current and future yields. I can't improve on those commentary; and I've rambled enough.

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    A few positives remain for this week.

    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 14- November 18, 2022

    --- AGG = +.51% / -13.4% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.12% / -1.7% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.21% / -4.4% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .07% / -9.9% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.2% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.02% / -13% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.8% / -5.2% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.2% / -32.8% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.8% / -31.5% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +2.7% / -39.6% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +3.1% / -41.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -3.5% / +96% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +5.1% / -72% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +.63% / -14.3% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -.3% / -11.1% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.2% / -18.2% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.79% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022 Yes, short term yields have changed rapidly.

    BONUS MATERIAL. For many of the younger, well; you had to be there and then.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • What is Terminal fund rate?
    The terminal rate is the level at which the Fed is expected to stop raising interest rates.
    I'm imaging the FED using CPI or an index gauge they choose and increasing interest rates until the two numbers are near the same value; and then take a look around at the results, to determine the next move. I.E. : CPI at 5.5%, stop the terminal rate at 5.5%.
    From a Schwab article:

    "the futures markets are now pricing in a rise in the federal funds rate to the 5% to 5.25% region in the second quarter of 2023, with the rate staying above 5% until late 2023."

    That would be my guess, too.
  • edited November 20
    Fed uses PCE-Core and that is 5.1%.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=WBJz

    Fed fund futures project terminal rate of 5.00-5.25%.

    The CME FedWatch tool is based on current fed fund futures quotes around the FOMC meetings and the assumption of gradual fed fund rate changes (+/- 0.25%). In the list below, more than 50% probability is used to indicate rate hike; “+” is shown after the FOMC date to indicate that rate hike can be at that or a later FOMC.

    16th & 17th rate hikes, FOMC 12/14/22+ (50 bps hike possible) (rate 4.25-4.50%)
    Good riddance, 2022
    1st & 2nd rate hikes of 2023, FOMC 2/1/23+ (50 bps hike possible)
    3rd rate hike, FOMC 3/22/23+ 25 bps (rate 5.00-5.25%; likely cycle peak)
    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  • Thanks @yogibearbull about the PCE-Core. Was in my brain storage folders somewhere, but the retrieval failed while writing.
  • I will be buying more treasury bills after each rate hike.

    Don’t think I will get back to bond funds until late 2023 when the rate hike is done.
  • Although not likely providing a match for Treasury yields, we will remain with FZDXX MMKT for parking our cash. We already have too many other non-investment areas to deal with, requiring our time. AH, to be much younger again.
  • Observations. This does not necessarily indicate a trend of 3 or 6 months or longer; for longer duration bonds, but what some traders 'think' may be coming down the road for long duration bond rates.
    A rotation of directions took place one month ago, October 24. This is still holding, one month later.
    TMF (lower long rates) has gained 35% since October 24 pricing (using current price at 2pm, EST, November 23.

    TBT vs TMF chart

    --- TBT = (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)

    Comments and insights most welcomed.
    Catch
  • Another actively managed and leveraged bond ETF, PFIX that tracks TBT,
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TBT,TMF,PFIX

    It is quite volatile. So just watching for now.
  • edited December 2
    Bond bottom, Oct. 25 ??? One calendar month, 23 trading days. Just the numbers. Global central bankers remain in group think mode hoping they can fix what, in many cases, could partially fix itself; via the consumer. Let us hope that central bank egos don't stand in the path of a positive economic direction, eventually.

    Eight random bond etf's returns for the past month, from the recent bottom (?).
    CHART

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.

    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 21- November 25, 2022

    --- AGG = +1.07% / -12.5% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.14% / -1.6% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.15% / -4.3% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.46% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.02% / -14.3% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +1.3% / -11.8% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +.58% / -4.65% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +4.35% / -29.9% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +3.3% / -29.3% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +4.65% / -36.8% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +5.1% / -38.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -6.2% / +83% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +9.8% / -69% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.08% / -13.4% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.05% / -10.8% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.85% / -16.6% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is slowing for this past week, versus the past six months.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • edited December 3
    Well, we have 'Two for Tuesday' (FM radio); and a 'Warm for Wednesday' (Powell/Fed. statement). Warm and fuzzy feeling, for the most part; the Fed. rate increases may back down a tad. Then, 'Freaky Friday', from the jobs and wages reports. Too many new jobs and folks making too much via hourly wage. Damn, can't catch a break, eh? Speaking of breaks, these 'hotter' numbers may give more pause to the Fed and any notion about going easy on the rate increases and for how long. Sorry, companies and you worker bee folks; you're going to have to stop this economic expansion. We'll help you going forward, okay? Bond yields/prices hopped around a bit; with many bond areas giving the 'bird' to the FED, for the week in total. About midday Friday, bond yields dropped and resulting nice price gains came forth to support a direction for the week. As shown in the below list, the longer duration of IG bonds continues to provide the best performance. Those who have bonds in their investment mix now have more support in this area. The recent, apparent bottom in bond pricing from October 25 continues to find support from those levels.

    ALGO FED: Perhaps the FED should try operating their mandates via an ALGO program using 20 economic data points of their choice; to discover the results for managing the U.S. economy, in this manner.

    Several selected bond fund returns since October 25.

    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    All listed etf's below have nice price gains for this past week, except the 'bear/short' etf.

    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 28- December 2, 2022

    --- AGG = +1.5% / -11.2% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.22% / -1.4% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.47% / -3.8% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +1.2% / -8.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +1.8% / -12.8% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +2.65% / -9.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = +1.2% / -3.5% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +6.8% / -25% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +4.3% / -26.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +6% / -33% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +6.5% / -34.5% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -8.2% / +68.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +12.5% / -65.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = +1.56% / -12% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = +1.2% / -9.1% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +1.9% / -15.1% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 3.81% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund

    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. The rate of rise in the yield is stagnate for this past week, versus the past six months.

    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • edited December 3
    @catch22, Just watching the wild swings in both direction with TBT and TMF. No buying bonds until later 2023.

    Until rate hike is done and reached the terminal rate, it is hard to imagine bond funds will reverse course. Longer duration will swing more in both direction while the shorter duration bonds will have less swings.

    Friday’s employment number indicated more jobs are created and the increased hiring for the holiday season will add to it too. If the Fed slows to 50 bps rate hike in December’s FOMC, that would still consider ok.
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