Default deniers posit that it won’t happen because to default is by definition irrational. Most articles by sensible commentators conclude with that idea. The latest is a piece on the Schwab website. The reality is the House Crazy Caucus is and will continue to be irrational. I wonder what the odds of default are on Fan Duel? I still am trying to figure out where to hide. One thing is for sure, hoping for a deal that sacrifices Social Security and Medicare won’t be much of a win win for us old guys.
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Gold (physical GLD, gold-miners GDX) has been outperforming since October lows. https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=GLD&compare=GDX,SPY&id=p72295455994
Global reserve currencies have 100+ or so years of life (in the list below from Bitcoin enthusiasts, you can ignore the last projection), and the US can only hasten the change. https://twitter.com/BTC_for_Freedom/status/1616047232947560448
"World reserve currency periods:
- Portugal (1450–1530)
- Spain (1530–1640)
- Netherlands (1640–1720)
- France (1720–1815)
- Great Britain (1815–1920)
- United States (1921-2030)
- Bitcoin (2030-Forever)"
Ironically, denying there is any connection between money and politics is intensely political just as denying that there are gay people in the military or Florida whose voices need to be heard is. A Don't-Say-Politics policy is endorsing a belief in the pursuit of financial profit by any means necessary regardless of that pursuit's impact on employees, consumers, nation states such as America, humanity and the planet's ecosystem. It's pretending life is all profit numbers and there aren't flesh-and-blood people--employees and consumers--producing the profits much like an abstract physics problem which pretends anything falling is falling in a frictionless fictional world.
I looked at the gold funds and think for retirement accounts. pick the one with the lowest ER and decent liquidity.
In taxable accounts Gold is taxed at long term capital gains rates of 28% as a collectible ( ST is income tax rate)
However, if you use a Canadian fund like PHYS, you can fill out a form every year with your taxes and pay usual LT capital gains rate.
Otherwise buy a mutual fund like SGGDX which seems to have done betted than the index of miners like GDX. NEM is also a possibility as it has a nice dividend.
@LB
I agree Political issues always affect investments. For example, massive changes in the tax laws, an obviously political issue, made huge changes in expected investment returns.
We should be able to distinguish between political discussions with people of good faith presenting opposing but reasoned and fact based arguments or informed ( who of us really knows what is in McCarthy's head?) opinions based on their actual data or professional knowledge, and screes and ideology amplified by the internet with a hostile core.
Unfortunately there is much more of the latter than the former. Many once respected voices of facts and reason are now just the scene of shouting matches. While the NYT is not much better (looking at you 1619 project), I remember how thoughtful and insightful the WSJ used to be. The articles are still generally useful, but no where near as detailed and insightful, but the opinion pages distort and cherry pick facts to rile up the faithful.
This then pollutes everything associated with it. I am reading a pretty good book now about PGE and the California wildfires "California Burning" by K Blunt. My cousin whose house almost burned down in one of the fires refuses to read it as it is written by WSJ reporter. Everything is distorted through you own, mightily amplified political viewpoint.
There seems to be very few places for moderates and independents to have a discussion without getting yelled at.
Yes, and MFO is one of them, thanks to Dr. Snowball.
More than 70% of the country does not know or care what a debt default is.
No problem. Carry on guys.
Of course, Putin could render the entire topic mute by lobbing a nuke or two over there. You don’t suppose he follows U.S. domestic politics?
Looks like Mitch McConnel agrees with StayCalm: "I can't imagine any debt ceiling provision passed out of the Senate with 60 votes could actually pass this particular House," McConnell told reporters Tuesday.