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A yikes day for sure. I am in Michigan and our restaurants and bars are closing today, except for take out. Dentist just called and is closing until 4/6. I am a teacher and I do not think we will go back until September. One more day like this and we are looking at 2000 on the S&P.
Maybe lots more pain for 2 -4 wks, at least until numbers covid19 stabilize or go down at least usa/eu...severe contractions globally at least short terms
There was a time when I would have said something like "a firm grasp of the obvious". But given the ongoing performance of the present federal administration I now realize that "a firm grasp of the obvious" is actually a fairly difficult and impressive achievement.
Maybe lots more pain for 2 -4 wks, at least until numbers covid19 stabilize or go down at least usa/eu...severe contractions globally at least short terms
There was a time when I would have said something like "a firm grasp of the obvious". But given the ongoing performance of the present federal administration I now realize that "a firm grasp of the obvious" is actually a fairly difficult and impressive achievement.
Bought 'some' FTEC - Fidelity's MSCI Info Tech ETF today. Granted it's an index but it's two largest holdings are AAPL and MSFT and they make up 38+% of the holdings. No brainer to me and I'll buy more if it continues to go down.
We did add more vanguard prime cap core vppcx today...wont look at returns until 12-24 months later
I have several Primecap funds. They always seems to have a few holdings that are absolute stinkers, so it will be interesting to see what they say in commentary regarding their long held airlines. I'm guessing they're adding.
Nasty. Nasty. Even though I’m adding almost daily now, I’m aware this might be a near bottomless pit - even a potential replay of the 30s in which the pain lasted for a decade or longer. That thought should always be in the back of every investor’s head, whether markets are storming higher or nose-diving.
So while risky, the logic in buying favorite funds a little at a time is two-fold.
(1) The farther down they already are when you buy, the lesser the distance they have left to fall. We’ve fallen about 3 stories from a 10 story building. We’re hoping for a nice bounce somewhere around the 4th, 5th or 6th floor. But we’re well aware this may not end well.
(2) 0% - 1% returns on cash are an anathema to me.
I’ve been waiting for a chance to link this classic Louis Rukeyser show: “After the Crash” from 1987. Lou’s opening speech is inspiring. And if you have the time, the later segment with John Templeton should be a joy. Sir John was my first ever mutual fund manager - a towering and inspirational figure.
I’ve been waiting for a chance to link this classic Louis Rukeyser show: “After the Crash” from 1987. Lou’s opening speech is inspiring. And if you have the time, the later segment with John Templeton should be a joy. Sir John was my first ever mutual fund manager - a towering and inspirational figure.
Old_Skeet pondered today ... No buys ... Just watched. Tomorrow ... if the market stays down I'll probally buy again in my equity income sleeve. In addition, some of my fixed income funds are now starting to look attractive as it seems forced selling has lowered their nav's.
Bought initial 500s position in BME. Added to EADSY.
Likely adding to CHSCM and CHSCN which got *cleaved* since I bought them on ... oh, yeah, Monday.
Considering a spec long-term options play with GE hovering at 6.
Edit: Put on a large-ish options combo trade on EPD 10/13 going out to Jan '22 for a surprising *credit*. (I already own a large position in the shares.)
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In my long-long term account I sold a T-bill today and am eyeballing additions to existing GBX, OHI, and PPL positions.
Hard keeping finger off trigger. While gold’s down, the miners are mixed - possibly up. Candidates are DODBX, PIEQX or a spec stake in PRFDX (off 30% already). Think I’ll lay off ... hmm ...
One problem is markets are now subject to sudden sharp reversals late in the day. A “good buy” at 3:00 might turn around and bite you by 4:00 PM. Plus, all the stable geniuses in DC are groping at straws for whatever “surprise” they can toss out there to stop the fire.
I've been pondering a play on the stock MRNA, Moderna Inc, but the stock keeps going up. Yes, I said up! They are the farthest ahead for a vaccine, which is really the only turn around this pandemic and economic crisis has. Has anyone else been pondering this stock?
FWIW...I spoke with my guy at Schwab during the carnage today, talking about how even bonds were leaking significantly. He suggested that in this environment, cash is good, recommending SWVXX, paying a bit more than 1%.
Bought some SLV and been buying physical for a couple of months. At this POG and POS, there is no supply available. Dealers are out at these prices. Now if you want to pay a huge premium and wait.
Some old news: did some selling when the Fed went to 0.....AEDVX, GIBLX, PTIAX, TRBUX. Since I don't know what "0" means for bonds I left. This happened quicker than I thought.
This week added to FXIAX, PGTAX, TGJNX, and ROGSX along with FSMEX. Right now at 33% cash. The two funds that really disappointed me most were VWINX and PONAX. Expected better. Am going to wait to buy more. I think we go lower.
@rforno now you’re talking! That’s the kind of purchase I can get behind... Love LaPhroaig along with my Balvenie Caribbean cask which is quite smooth....
@rforno now you’re talking! That’s the kind of purchase I can get behind... Love LaPhroaig along with my Balvenie Caribbean cask which is quite smooth....
Call me crazy but I actually just added XLE to my watch list. I know, I know I have mostly bashing the sector as a losers game since January and I still see it dead money at best but it may provide a good trading opportunity here and there. I definitely won't be holding it long term. Those funds will go to alternative energy and tech.
Several Asian countries (Japan, S.Korea, China) will open schools soon. Asian stocks starting slow rebounds.
May add more to QQQ and VOO, VTI probably in few weeks if US follow. If Biden/ Trump camps start planning rally events, stores return normal hours, more sporting events planned, those may signal economy heading to normalcy states. We are sitting sideline watching for now after took large loss with added energy sectors. Down 20s% with Vanguard brokerage heavily diversified account. Have not sell any previously. I think short term maybe still volatile. Perhaps have your guns loaded/dried powder ready.
XLE I was going to comment, ask, seek opinions, re: something rono has been mentioning about the new-normal, post-crisis. Lots of stuff we take for granted will never be the same. I was thinking about energy and/or utilities, since they are connected, and there are dedicated mutual funds for that. PRWCX is heavy in utilities, and has been, even pre-corona crisis: 10.59% of portfolio. (Morningstar.) It's a long-term bet, with more efficient, "sustainable" energy in mind. The thinking is that utilities will eventually be able to turn a profit without so much expense, and without needing to use fossil fuels. The smart ones are already ahead of the curve. ETF list:
VUIAX continues to pay a good dividend. (Vanguard. Tracks the Index. ) Latest was almost 44 cents (quarterly.) That's an average of almost 15 cents per month. Helluva lot better than my bond funds.
In this environment, carefully choosing individual holdings is tempting. I added to WPC on Friday, thinking that some of the higher quality REITs present a good value for their income. I will be looking at select financials...BAC, USB, and maybe even WFC given the fact they're tossed to the curb, yet remain in the TBTF category. In funds. the one written up by Lewis Braham in Barrons sounds interesting for getting exposure to big cap leaders...PBLAX.
Hi @Crash VUIAX will pay an even higher yield if the price continues to fall. A simple math function that looks good on the outside; but the higher yield for this fund is from the sacrifice of price return, YTD of -26.31%. A pretty serious sacrifice of dollars for the sake of "seeing" a good yield for the moment. Now if one feels it is time to buy this area; the money will be made from price, yield won't matter.
NOTE: Junk bond funds yields in December 2008 had an average yield 23.26%. 'Course, to travel to this magnificent yield; investors coughed up about 30% of the pricing during the prior 4 months. One hell of a sacrifice.
Gotcha, @catch22. I couldn't afford the $100,000 entry point in that share-class, anyhow. I'm sticking with PRWCX, just not adding. I don't feel the need for any sector-funds, these days. I like my selections and proportions in the portfolio.
Hi @Crash, A utility fund that I have owned in the past is MMUFX. It carries a MFO risk rating of 3 and a return rating of 5. This is the A share ticker. Perhaps, it can be bought somewhere commission free as other share classes are available.
Comments
Bought 'some' FTEC - Fidelity's MSCI Info Tech ETF today. Granted it's an index but it's two largest holdings are AAPL and MSFT and they make up 38+% of the holdings. No brainer to me and I'll buy more if it continues to go down.
So while risky, the logic in buying favorite funds a little at a time is two-fold.
(1) The farther down they already are when you buy, the lesser the distance they have left to fall. We’ve fallen about 3 stories from a 10 story building. We’re hoping for a nice bounce somewhere around the 4th, 5th or 6th floor. But we’re well aware this may not end well.
(2) 0% - 1% returns on cash are an anathema to me.
I’ve been waiting for a chance to link this classic Louis Rukeyser show: “After the Crash” from 1987. Lou’s opening speech is inspiring. And if you have the time, the later segment with John Templeton should be a joy. Sir John was my first ever mutual fund manager - a towering and inspirational figure.
https://ritholtz.com/2012/10/after-the-crash-louis-rukeyser-wall-street-week-oct-23-1987/
NOTE - They appear to have mislabeled / misidentified the bottom 2 videos. Click the center one to listen to Templeton.
Added to VDIGX, VWIGX, and VWUSX.
Bought VTI looking at how low indices went down today.
(usually I buy Mfunds, but thought I can get a better price using ETFs)
Likely adding to CHSCM and CHSCN which got *cleaved* since I bought them on ... oh, yeah, Monday.
Considering a spec long-term options play with GE hovering at 6.
Edit: Put on a large-ish options combo trade on EPD 10/13 going out to Jan '22 for a surprising *credit*. (I already own a large position in the shares.)
# # # # #
In my long-long term account I sold a T-bill today and am eyeballing additions to existing GBX, OHI, and PPL positions.
One problem is markets are now subject to sudden sharp reversals late in the day. A “good buy” at 3:00 might turn around and bite you by 4:00 PM. Plus, all the stable geniuses in DC are groping at straws for whatever “surprise” they can toss out there to stop the fire.
That's now my largest holding.
Bought some SLV and been buying physical for a couple of months. At this POG and POS, there is no supply available. Dealers are out at these prices. Now if you want to pay a huge premium and wait.
Flatten the Curve
Peace
Rono
Hope all is well with you all.
Some old news: did some selling when the Fed went to 0.....AEDVX, GIBLX, PTIAX, TRBUX. Since I don't know what "0" means for bonds I left. This happened quicker than I thought.
This week added to FXIAX, PGTAX, TGJNX, and ROGSX along with FSMEX. Right now at 33% cash. The two funds that really disappointed me most were VWINX and PONAX. Expected better. Am going to wait to buy more. I think we go lower.
Be safe, guys!
God bless
the Pudd
Caribbean Cask and Macallan-10 are my go-to for Speysides.
May add more to QQQ and VOO, VTI probably in few weeks if US follow. If Biden/ Trump camps start planning rally events, stores return normal hours, more sporting events planned, those may signal economy heading to normalcy states. We are sitting sideline watching for now after took large loss with added energy sectors. Down 20s% with Vanguard brokerage heavily diversified account. Have not sell any previously. I think short term maybe still volatile. Perhaps have your guns loaded/dried powder ready.
ETF list:
https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/utilities-equities/
An OEF or two or two hundred: (US NEWS list)
https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/rankings/utilities
VUIAX will pay an even higher yield if the price continues to fall. A simple math function that looks good on the outside; but the higher yield for this fund is from the sacrifice of price return, YTD of -26.31%. A pretty serious sacrifice of dollars for the sake of "seeing" a good yield for the moment. Now if one feels it is time to buy this area; the money will be made from price, yield won't matter.
NOTE: Junk bond funds yields in December 2008 had an average yield 23.26%.
'Course, to travel to this magnificent yield; investors coughed up about 30% of the pricing during the prior 4 months. One hell of a sacrifice.