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Anyone using some of their dry powder ?

I'll be the the first to omit I made a small 4 digit purchase of VTTVX during the week. Since cash holding is to high , I'll continue to purchase in a like manor, or at least I think I will ! Seems to be like pour money down a rat hole ! Maybe shorting is the way to go ?! SQQQ ?!
Enjoy your weekend, Derf
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Comments

  • edited April 30
    Yes, mainly buying SPLG and ONEQ. Limit orders are sitting out there for every drop in price. Orders are starting to get filled, but lots of powder to be spent.

    Eventually, I will add some sort of CD ladder. But if the markets really crash (down another -20% or so), maybe not such a large one.
  • Hi @Derf - I confess to 3 and 4-digit buys of VTSAX and VIG. Did that 2x over the past 2-weeks. I was impatient, wanting to put some cash to work. We’ll all see how the market responds on Wednesday.
  • edited April 30
    Just add few share amazon yesterday after hr
    Filled just little vang2055, vpccx vgstx yesterday

    401k still 90% /10% twice monthly redistribution

    Got assigned XLF XBI at vanguard ...imho maybe good etf hold long term, or keep cover call OTM Monthly to collect premiums


    Expect a little bounce next wk Feds meeting maybe +3-5%....afterwards maybe more pain....sp500 severe resistance ~ 3980,..if break that levels much more pains ahead

    In early June if more stability/bottom formations may go all in more options trades put sale...now just waiting ✋️

    Just sent uncle Sam ck, just cash 47k last few yrs tax...no more dry power.

    Dry add work more OT get more $$...put in vegas stock markets...lol.. get rich quickly or die trying
  • edited April 30
    Don’t have much dry powder. Have a small limit order in place (adding to existing equity holding) for Monday’s open. Might add bit more if markets become “unglued” early in the week. A 7% weighting in TAIL helped Friday as it rose about 2%. Overall, portfolio was down in line with my tracker.

    Carrying dry powder has been expensive in recent years with the very low rates of return. Expecting some fireworks the second half of next week as markets digest the FOMC actions + press conference.
  • I bought some CIBR earlier in the week. Smaller position. I’m already underwater. Kind of feel like I should do the exact opposite of what I end up doing in this market… like George Costanza
  • edited April 30
    I've exited my bond positions this year with proceeds going to cash or cash equivalents.
    I've never done this previously but the current market environment is not good for most bonds.
    Eventually, this money will be invested back into bond funds (interm. core, interm. core-plus, or multisector).
    If there's a large stock market decline (>25%) in the mean time, some of this money will go to my equity funds.
  • Early in retirement, the last thing I need is holding a large equity allocation in a prolonged bear market, so I am at my personal low end of stock allocations. I am marginally positive YTD overall, with overweighs in Energy and commodities and underweight FAANG.

    I do not think raising the Federal Funds rate will do much to alleviate inflation due to supply chain disruptions /war, and it seems harder and harder for the FED to stop inflation without a recession. Stagnation seems more and more likely until 2024 at least

    Barrons has a nice summary of the difficulty of a "Soft lading"

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-inflation-fed-soft-landing-51651183401?mod=past_editions

    Bond yields, while better, are still lowespecially relative to inflation, and even good dividend stocks my be in for a 15 to 20% drop

    I don't see much to change these trends until the war is over and China's covid problem is resolved. The added expenses to rebuild Ukraine and restore the damage to it's agricultural infrastructure will keep food and basic materials prices high for a long time, even if there is a recession.

    Having said that, I nibbled on AMZN and JPM yesterday as both are way down and JPM pays 3.35%, but I think adding to DBA or GCC or XLE makes the most sense now, along with PSQ and SH if you are OK with inverse ETFs

    I am also looking at a ladder of tax free state specific munis. While they don't pay much they are marginally better than MM rates and if interest rates continue to rise you can have cash to buy bonds at better prices

  • Hi Derf,
    Yeah,....revamping things right now. Moved taxable money to Fido from Ally and did CD ladder for now. Still have some cash in there for ETFs or funds. Also have Mrs. Pudd's 401k (from the post office) now IRA finally in Fido. Also did a CD ladder for now. Some cash left and am adding to FXAIX in her account. As for me, added to FARMX, FICDX, FSPCX, and to FXAIX. Most went in yesterday. Am still thinking we go lower, say 4000 S&P, but, again, you have to start somewhere. Since I don't know where the bottom will be, we go in slowly and drink a lot of longnecks.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited April 30
    JD_co said:

    Yes, mainly buying SPLG and ONEQ. Limit orders are sitting out there for every drop in price. Orders are starting to get filled, but lots of powder to be spent.

    Eventually, I will add some sort of CD ladder. But if the markets really crash (down another -20% or so), maybe not such a large one.

    Hi, I know a lot of fund companies have an SP 500 ETF but I did not know SPDR has two of them. I have exclusively used SPY which is the first SP 500 ETF from SPDR. You made a better choice as SPLG outperformed SPY. I am curious, what made you choose SPLG over SPY: just the lower ER or something else?

    P.S.: To others, I am aware that duplicative ETFs are also issued by other fund companies like Ishares. I just want to understand JD’s reasoning with SPLG vs SPY.

    Thanks.
  • edited April 30
    BaluBalu,
    I prefer buying in small amounts. Chip chip chip chip. Down another -0.25%? Then I automatically just bought another share in each of my various accounts via Limit orders getting executed.

    But buying fractional shares is difficult because any fractional limit orders expire same day at Fido. SPY's price is much higher and I am a small-time investor.

    SPLG = $48 /share
    SPY = $412/share

    Same idea with ONEQ.
  • SPLG and IVV both have lower expense ratios than SPY. I buy dollar amounts of etfs, so Fidelity's Fractional Share platform works well for me.
  • edited April 30
    S&P is copying the iShare trick with older ETFs and newer "core" series ETFs, e.g. EEM and IEMG. At the time of introduction of IEMG, EEM was the higher ER giant and iShare said that IEMG was for small investors with lower ER but not so good liquidity. This has reversed now and IEMG is much bigger than EEM.

    S&P is doing something similar with SPY and SPLG. Additional factor is that although higher ER giant SPY is called ETF, it really has UIT structure and that impacts its tracking a bit. The lower ER smaller SPLG has regular ETF structure.

    For retail investors, choice is clear - lower ER IEMG (really, anything in iShare "core" series), SPLG, etc.

    Edit/Add: More history for SPLG from M*, https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/splg/quote

    "In November 2017, the fund switched its benchmark to the SSGA Large Cap Index from the Russell 1000 Index. It began tracking the S&P 500 in January 2020. The most recent change is part of SSGA’s effort to standardize the benchmarks underpinning its SPDR Portfolio lineup. As these three indexes are all broad, market-cap-weighted benchmarks that capture large-cap stocks, their performance has been similar."
  • Reallocating from JPM Hedged Equity to Value equities.
  • edited April 30
    No deployment of dry powder yet. First deployment will be to AA funds mid/end of summer, then into riskier stuff, depending on war in Ukarine. In general I use a 20% downturn as a buy switch in transitional periods such as these. I am a good 10-15 years from retirement and quite comfortable being 30% cash / stable value in my company 401k.
  • Not much dry powder here, too. I'm using bond fund money to buy stocks within the tax-sheltered account. Kill two stones with one bird: reduce bonds while buying "bargains."

    PRFRX is holding up rather well, down YTD by just a quarter point. And my TUHYX? I don't want to talk about it. Down -8% YTD. The dividends just showed up overnight, though, and I was pleased. .....

    ...With just a bit of spare cash, I bought a few more shares in BHB. I want to just get my shares owned in BHB up to a respectable round number--- as long as the price is right! And then my next target is Pacific Basin Shipping. Because this is a FUND website, let me mention FICDX, too. It's on my radar. Canada sells rocks and trees to the world. But the two biggest holdings there are TD and RY. High conviction! Over 10% of AUM in those two, EACH.
  • edited April 30
    I have fair amount cash/stable value, and in no hurry to deploy them. I share similar view with @sma3 that rising the interest rate will not lower the inflation as it did in the past. Supply chain constraint and geopolitical conflicts are difficult to solve, in addition to the pandemic. Now China is severely impacted again as it did back in late 2019 and 2020.

    YTD we are doing by several % and that is good enough for us. Certainly cash is NOT trash. Moving out of most bond funds and risky asset/funds was helpful late last year. Now we are well positioned in commodities, energy and utility. The other concern is recession, if and when it arrives.
  • Well put!
  • GQEPX, GLFOX, and on Friday mid-PM, AMZN. Of course it continued south and then bounced towards day’s end. Fish in a barrel don’t stop moving or ring the bell at the bottom, for some reason.
  • @Crash. What are your expectations for PRFRX? Jan thru March 2022 the dividends trail the same period in 2021. The share price is slowly declining over the long run. While it’s out performing core bond funds it also has the potential for significant price declines. I am not loving it.
  • larryB said:

    @Crash. What are your expectations for PRFRX? Jan thru March 2022 the dividends trail the same period in 2021. The share price is slowly declining over the long run. While it’s out performing core bond funds it also has the potential for significant price declines. I am not loving it.

    No I'm not loving it, either. I suppose you could say I'm using my PRFRX as a place to hold cash, rather than a MM. I've been "raiding" PRFRX to get cash to buy equities. My PRFRX is in tax-sheltered. ..... So, I'm not expecting much. But a MM would not even offer the monthly dividend. I like to keep track of those, and so div. PER SHARE is easiest to monitor. But I can't find that figure yet, for the end-of-April dividend. (Do YOU know what it is?) ..... As for TUHYX: it will have to fall off the table before I buy more. But if it DOES, I'll buy more.
  • edited May 1
    I am nibbling at BTAL, PFIX, BCD, COM and YOLO
  • Future market indicating Monday will be down again. Oil futures are still over $100/bb. So the market has not bottomed yet. Besides the second 50 bps rate hike will be in May and several more will come through the rest of this year. Other countries are experiencing high inflation too and they are raising rate as well.

    I am looking at individual short term corporate bonds (not funds) and CD as a replacement for some of the cash.
  • @ Crash. I couldn’t find the April number either. I looked at M*, Schwab and even TRP. Oddly enough the dollars were reported in
    my Schwab IRA on the 29th. The number was shrinking. As much as I would like think of it as a MM I am aware of its capability to DD hard and fast if some terrible event were to come out of nowhere. Of course it’s a peaceful , happy and harmonious world we live so nothing bad should happen.
  • edited May 1
    “So the market has not bottomed yet.”

    There’s a 99% chance that’s true. “The market” may not bottom for many months or years yet. If someone has a reliable indicator that will signal the exact bottom, please share. Better still, if someone can announce that one day ahead of time, it would allow us extra time to begin aggressive buying.:)

    Now - if you thought a certain fund was worth owning or buying 5 or 6 months ago when it was 10-15% more expensive than today, wouldn’t you love to buy more at today’s 10-15% discount? Or were we blindsided back than - completely unaware that inflation was rising, Russia had designs on Ukraine and had already annexed Crimea, and interest rates were absurdly low and would surely need to rise some day?

    Here’s an article from the NYT dated December 4 saying that Russia appears to be preparing to invade Ukraine. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden.html
  • @Sven, US futures will start to trade Sunday evening at 5pm central.
    CME Link https://www.cmegroup.com/
  • edited May 1

    @Sven, US futures will start to trade Sunday evening at 5pm central.
    CME Link https://www.cmegroup.com/

    Thanks Yogi. - The markets are in turmoil. Path of least resistance appears down - but wouldn’t bet the bank on it.
  • edited May 1
    Just a reminder that overnight futures are a poor indicator of the next day's activity. I've seen it flip back the other way too many times.

    Make a plan if you don't have one, and then stick to it (even if that means holding tight). Maybe now more than in recent years, its probably a good idea to re-assess your risk tolerance and adjust accordingly.
  • @JD_co, I understand your reasoning behind buying SPLG and to date it has performed admirably. Ditto your reasons for ONEQ but it has lagged it's bogey by quite a handful Do you have any thoughts on why it seems to be lagging? I had considered it as well for similar reasons as you but went with FTEC instead as it tracked the performance of Q's better. I admit it's strange.
  • edited May 1
    @Mark, ONEQ follows Nasdaq Comp ($COMPQ), QQQ follow Nasdaq-100 ($NDX). Differences may be due to sampling errors, higher for ONEQ than QQQ.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ONEQ&compare=$COMPQ,QQQ,$NDX&id=p59796619787
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