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The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
Everyone already saw the backward looking indicators. And everyone read that even the WSJ says "too soon" to tell. Including former Trump economic advisor. and head of Morgan Stanley, Jamie Dimon.
"Good" is relative. Biden had essentially the same GDP, job, inflation and other stats throughout 2023/2024 with back-to-back S&P earnings of 25%. We are sitting at ~2% mid-year for 2025. All of MAGA world bemoaned similar numbers from Biden. except Biden didn't take a roaring stock market and put a muffler on it. I am sure you will admit now though, that Biden's numbers were good?
It could be argued that Trump is enjoying the Biden tailwind. GDP has been revised downward for 2025 several times. It isn't looking pretty.
This is like saying that the inflation that occurred in 2022 didn't really happen because the events leading to it took 18 months to percolate. Talk about unfurling the "Mission Accomplished" banner prematurely.
It might even take longer than it took in 2020-2022, because the tariffs are not happening all at once, in the trillions of dollars, like the stimulus was dumped on the economy. The tariffs will be far more spread out in time, as people and companies make purchases.
Why always look for the negative in every piece of news? I want journalists to report the simple facts instead of making remarks about what could go wrong, unless they make remarks on what can go right.
Pew has research on where Americans get their news. See (link). Democrats are about three times more likely than Republicans to listen to NPR. In contrast, the audience for the Wall Street Journal is much more balanced between the two parties.
>>>Pew has research on where Americans get their news. See (link). Dems are 3 times more than GOP listening to NPR. The numbers for WSJ are a lot closer.
What is correct and true is not subject to popularity, or opinion polls. @FD1000
>>>Pew has research on where Americans get their news. See (link). Dems are 3 times more than GOP listening to NPR. The numbers for WSJ are a lot closer.
What is correct and true is not subject to popularity, or opinion polls.
Well put.
On a side note, I am still waiting to hear an explanation why, if the numbers are so good, that Trump is badgering Powell to lower rates.
+1. "...During pre-trial discovery, Fox News' internal communications were released, indicating that prominent hosts and top executives were aware the network was reporting false statements but continued doing so to retain viewers for financial reasons..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_Voting_Systems_v._Fox_News_Network
+1. "...During pre-trial discovery, Fox News' internal communications were released, indicating that prominent hosts and top executives were aware the network was reporting false statements but continued doing so to retain viewers for financial reasons..." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_Voting_Systems_v._Fox_News_Network
Yes, I stand corrected. It was not during the actual trial, but the discovery phase. And taken from Fox's own internal communications.
We should ignore that though, as an inconvenient truth.
I am now reminded of the very limited coverage that all the conservative "news" networks gave the events of Jan 6, as they unfolded in real time at our nation's capital. And how Fox eliminated all the violence and destruction from the video footage they eventually released. Such a peaceful day it was.
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
So THAT explains the big bump-up in ET! It's been drifting and flagging lately.
EDIT: "...Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners, two of the top US ethane producers and exporters, said they have received letters from the US Commerce Department requiring the companies to apply for a license to ship ethane to China..."
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
What is driving this surge in oil prices. The entire narrative up until now was that OPEC+ was over-producing and that was leading to lower prices. What changed?
Maybe time again, to buy VCMDX. It worked well for me in 2022.
Here's a couple of headlines- • Investopedia: Oil Prices Jump to 2-Month High on Middle East Concerns, Trade Optimism • US Oil production set to decline – ING
i can grant the mkt (correctly?) has priced past a mild recession and inflation is doing its self-regulating thing for the moment.
some posters have a selective love for numbers, but have yet to attribute any to the following : "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one. We will drill, baby, drill. That’s going to bring down prices of everything!" ~Donald Trump "When I take office, I will swiftly reduce prices starting from day one." ~Donald Trump The reality... "Walmart and Target workers are sharing pics of price increases amid Trump’s trade war." "I've been doing price change everyday for the past four months or so, and seeing everything going up all at once is really making me sad," said a Target worker in late May. "I just feel terrible putting all these ridiculously high prices up."
for any independent thinkers, check out this very fresh finding that domestic-labeled goods (foreign input or not) hiked prices ahead of events, and keep them there regardless of changes. which means a lot of fake 'buy american' gop patriotism is not going to make it to the cash register. https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/companies-dont-wait-for-tariffs-to
I've just read the current Weekly Brief published by Jeff DeMaso. Here's his view on tariffs.
"So far, the economy is muddling through the noise and uncertainty surrounding the tariffs."
"In May, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, marking a full year within a tight range of 4.0% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 0.1% during the month, leaving the annual inflation rate (measured by the Consumer Price Index or CPI) at 2.4%— pretty much where it’s been for the past three months."
"To be clear, steady unemployment and inflation in May do not signal an all-clear. The effects of all the tariff back-and-forth will take some time to be reflected in the data. And don’t forget—we’re just a month away from the expiration of the 90-day pause on the Liberation Day 'reciprocal' tariffs. With only one 'deal' in place, frankly, I’m not sure even the White House knows what comes next."
I just want to thank the OP for helping to bring about a very lively and informative discussion, even if the outcome was not what he intended. It may just be a matter of time before the rose-colored glasses are out of season, or go way up in price.
Meanwhile back in the real world, Crude oil prices soared today and up over 20% from their recent lows. The CRB commodity index is higher now under Trump than it ever was under Biden. My point - inflation is not dead.
While future inflation because of the trend of the CRB commodity index and aforementioned by others of the impacts of tariffs do worry me, I must be mindful of home prices. Here, there, and everywhere I am seeing a surging supply on the market and sellers continually lowering their prices.
One place I have a particular interest in NC had but 10 homes on the market during much 2021 and 2022 with new listings always being snapped up quickly. Now it is over 90 homes on the market with many sitting there for months on end. Not exactly inflationary. In my neck of the woods it wasn’t long ago everyone from CA, MI, and other places were moving here seeking peace and tranquility. That is no longer the case, Our home inventory has doubled and suddenly nothing is selling.
Hi @Junkster Thank you for the 'new' chart for me. I've not seen that one before.
Hi @Old_Joe I watch Zillow listings in my area and a common trend right not is when the listing hits 2 weeks, and likely no bites; a flat 10% is placed to reduce the original listing price. This is marketing, eh? Or, a required price reduction to sell the property. But, I agree with @Mark. A 30 year mortgage today is 6.96%. Now, that is based on a very good credit score and perhaps 20% down payment. I don't think folks have the money to make that commitment when adding closing costs, taxes, etc. Another factor for some areas may be generational changes....baby boomer + ages and monies moving from one generation to another within a family. Good Evening, Catch
Trump's now lobbing 4th grade insults at Powell to force rate cuts. Why? According to this administration, and its supporters, everything is better than ever. Why do we need this sort of pressure on the FED if all is well?
Another data point to consider: New job creation is much lower than at this point in 2024, according to ADP.
At least three factors have conspired so far to keep inflation in check:
-Companies hoarding imported goods ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement. -The time it takes for the charges to make their way into the real economy. -The lack of pricing power companies face as consumers tighten belts. “We believe the limited impact from tariffs in May is a reflection of pre-tariff stockpiling, as well as a lagged pass-through of tariffs into import prices,” Aichi Amemiya, senior economist at Nomura, said in a note. “We maintain our view that the impact of tariffs will likely materialize in the coming months.”
Remember that "lack of pricing power" means lower profits, layoffs, etc.
I just want to thank the OP for helping to bring about a very lively and informative discussion, even if the outcome was not what he intended. It may just be a matter of time before the rose-colored glasses are out of season, or go way up in price.
So far, the numbers speak for themselves—the outcome has been good, and yet you still can’t admit it.
How can you keep insisting everything is terrible when key indicators—like inflation and markets—are saying otherwise?
Sure, the future could be worse. If and when that happens, we’ll deal with it. But let’s not rewrite the present based on hypotheticals.
We should be looking at the overall state of the economy and markets, not filtering everything through politics. Ironically, I don’t remember hearing much noise here when:
2022, under Biden, brought the highest inflation in four decades
Bonds had their worst performance in 30–40 years
Stocks were also down, hitting millions of Americans, especially those relying on bonds to protect their portfolios
That was a truly bad outcome—and it'll be hard to top that kind of damage.
As for Powell: he should be cutting rates, but he’s clearly hesitant—possibly because he doesn’t want to repeat past mistakes. Meanwhile, other central banks are already easing.
So far YTD: SPY + QQQ made money, Europe made a lot more, bonds made money. After 50% in 2023+24 for SPY, any positive performance in 2025 will be great.
No, we must accept that inflation happens immediately, despite all the folks with in-depth experience telling us that it doesn't' work that way. And we should simply believe that a +10% tax on all imports ($3.4 trillion) is not going to drive up prices (or hurt profits) because it has not happened yet.
And ignore that ADP reports 50% lower hiring rates since this time in 2025. Which clearly triggered Trump. I wonder why?
The story is that jobs are great, inflation is subdued, so we need rate cuts? We shouldn't follow the data, rather follow what weaker economies are doing, elsewhere.
I am glad we can all agree that all that stimulus from both Trump & Biden has finally worked itself out. That any future inflation will be from recent activities.
Comments
"Good" is relative. Biden had essentially the same GDP, job, inflation and other stats throughout 2023/2024 with back-to-back S&P earnings of 25%. We are sitting at ~2% mid-year for 2025. All of MAGA world bemoaned similar numbers from Biden. except Biden didn't take a roaring stock market and put a muffler on it. I am sure you will admit now though, that Biden's numbers were good?
It could be argued that Trump is enjoying the Biden tailwind. GDP has been revised downward for 2025 several times. It isn't looking pretty.
It might even take longer than it took in 2020-2022, because the tariffs are not happening all at once, in the trillions of dollars, like the stimulus was dumped on the economy. The tariffs will be far more spread out in time, as people and companies make purchases.
Why always look for the negative in every piece of news?
I want journalists to report the simple facts instead of making remarks about what could go wrong, unless they make remarks on what can go right.
Pew has research on where Americans get their news. See (link). Democrats are about three times more likely than Republicans to listen to NPR.
In contrast, the audience for the Wall Street Journal is much more balanced between the two parties.
What is correct and true is not subject to popularity, or opinion polls. @FD1000
On a side note, I am still waiting to hear an explanation why, if the numbers are so good, that Trump is badgering Powell to lower rates.
"...During pre-trial discovery, Fox News' internal communications were released, indicating that prominent hosts and top executives were aware the network was reporting false statements but continued doing so to retain viewers for financial reasons..."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominion_Voting_Systems_v._Fox_News_Network
We should ignore that though, as an inconvenient truth.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crb. Click on the five year chart
EDIT:
"...Energy Transfer and Enterprise Products Partners, two of the top US ethane producers and exporters, said they have received letters from the US Commerce Department requiring the companies to apply for a license to ship ethane to China..."
This does not sound like Free Enterprise to me. The gummint is requiring these outfits to sell to China? ORK. Sounds more like a mandated economy, smells like a Soviet 5-year Plan, eh?
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/gas/us-ethane-vessel-diverts-to-india-amid-china-export-restrictions
Maybe time again, to buy VCMDX. It worked well for me in 2022.
• Investopedia: Oil Prices Jump to 2-Month High on Middle East Concerns, Trade Optimism
• US Oil production set to decline – ING
Didn't do any followup on that.
i can grant the mkt (correctly?) has priced past a mild recession and inflation is doing its self-regulating thing for the moment.
some posters have a selective love for numbers, but have yet to attribute any to the following :
"When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one. We will drill, baby, drill. That’s going to bring down prices of everything!" ~Donald Trump
"When I take office, I will swiftly reduce prices starting from day one." ~Donald Trump
The reality...
"Walmart and Target workers are sharing pics of price increases amid Trump’s trade war."
"I've been doing price change everyday for the past four months or so, and seeing everything going up all at once is really making me sad," said a Target worker in late May. "I just feel terrible putting all these ridiculously high prices up."
for any independent thinkers, check out this very fresh finding that domestic-labeled goods (foreign input or not) hiked prices ahead of events, and keep them there regardless of changes. which means a lot of fake 'buy american' gop patriotism is not going to make it to the cash register.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/companies-dont-wait-for-tariffs-to
Here's his view on tariffs.
"So far, the economy is muddling through the noise and uncertainty surrounding the tariffs."
"In May, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, marking a full year within a tight range
of 4.0% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 0.1% during the month,
leaving the annual inflation rate (measured by the Consumer Price Index or CPI) at 2.4%—
pretty much where it’s been for the past three months."
"To be clear, steady unemployment and inflation in May do not signal an all-clear.
The effects of all the tariff back-and-forth will take some time to be reflected in the data.
And don’t forget—we’re just a month away from the expiration of the 90-day pause
on the Liberation Day 'reciprocal' tariffs. With only one 'deal' in place, frankly,
I’m not sure even the White House knows what comes next."
https://www.independentvanguardadviser.com/weekly-brief-steady-numbers-cloudy-outlook-and-a-new-etf
One place I have a particular interest in NC had but 10 homes on the market during much 2021 and 2022 with new listings always being snapped up quickly. Now it is over 90 homes on the market with many sitting there for months on end. Not exactly inflationary. In my neck of the woods it wasn’t long ago everyone from CA, MI, and other places were moving here seeking peace and tranquility. That is no longer the case, Our home inventory has doubled and suddenly nothing is selling.
Hi @Old_Joe I watch Zillow listings in my area and a common trend right not is when the listing hits 2 weeks, and likely no bites; a flat 10% is placed to reduce the original listing price. This is marketing, eh? Or, a required price reduction to sell the property.
But, I agree with @Mark. A 30 year mortgage today is 6.96%. Now, that is based on a very good credit score and perhaps 20% down payment. I don't think folks have the money to make that commitment when adding closing costs, taxes, etc. Another factor for some areas may be generational changes....baby boomer + ages and monies moving from one generation to another within a family.
Good Evening,
Catch
Another data point to consider: New job creation is much lower than at this point in 2024, according to ADP.
At least three factors have conspired so far to keep inflation in check:
-Companies hoarding imported goods ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.
-The time it takes for the charges to make their way into the real economy.
-The lack of pricing power companies face as consumers tighten belts.
“We believe the limited impact from tariffs in May is a reflection of pre-tariff stockpiling, as well as a lagged pass-through of tariffs into import prices,” Aichi Amemiya, senior economist at Nomura, said in a note. “We maintain our view that the impact of tariffs will likely materialize in the coming months.”
Remember that "lack of pricing power" means lower profits, layoffs, etc.
How can you keep insisting everything is terrible when key indicators—like inflation and markets—are saying otherwise?
Sure, the future could be worse. If and when that happens, we’ll deal with it. But let’s not rewrite the present based on hypotheticals.
We should be looking at the overall state of the economy and markets, not filtering everything through politics. Ironically, I don’t remember hearing much noise here when:
2022, under Biden, brought the highest inflation in four decades
Bonds had their worst performance in 30–40 years
Stocks were also down, hitting millions of Americans, especially those relying on bonds to protect their portfolios
That was a truly bad outcome—and it'll be hard to top that kind of damage.
As for Powell: he should be cutting rates, but he’s clearly hesitant—possibly because he doesn’t want to repeat past mistakes. Meanwhile, other central banks are already easing.
So far YTD: SPY + QQQ made money, Europe made a lot more, bonds made money. After 50% in 2023+24 for SPY, any positive performance in 2025 will be great.
And ignore that ADP reports 50% lower hiring rates since this time in 2025. Which clearly triggered Trump. I wonder why?
The story is that jobs are great, inflation is subdued, so we need rate cuts? We shouldn't follow the data, rather follow what weaker economies are doing, elsewhere.
I am glad we can all agree that all that stimulus from both Trump & Biden has finally worked itself out. That any future inflation will be from recent activities.