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Re: Air India 787 recent crash. Report, Barrons article
@Old_Joe - July 12 you said, “At this point It's certainly seeming as if one of those two pilots deliberately crashed that airplane.”
Has your initial thinking in that regard changed substantially as new information has come to light?
Further … Assuming your initial thought was indeed the case, might the captain (riding in the right seat) have heard a click or noticed some arm movement from the First Officer and first thought it was the retraction of the gear? I’ve just re-watched the video and note that the landing gear appears to remain fully deployed as the plane descends. (WTF will they release the full cockpit audio? So many questions.)
I’m not trying to write a Hitchcock thriller. Like all here I want the investigation to dig more deeply and arrive at a plausible / accurate conclusion / cause. Technology on a modern plane like that should be sophisticated enough to identify the cause. Apparently they haven’t gotten around yet to video recording inside the cockpit as they do with audio.
@hank- All I can say is that the official investigation by reputable officials has so far said nothing about any cause other than those switches. Switches don't turn themselves on and off. Q.E.D.
Yesterday I posted about a roundtable discussion on NDTV regarding the AI 171 incident. A Boeing 787 pilot had stated: "In these modern aeroplanes, you don't need to cut off the fuel control switch. Everything is transmitted electronically. So, even if the fuel switch is in the run position, it can go into the cutoff position without moving the fuel control switch. The fuel can just shut off. If there is something wrong with the software, it commands the fuel shutoff valve to close. With the fuel control switch still in run position, the engines can shut down." This pilot's comments suggested that fuel may have been cut off via software even if the fuel control switches were not moved to the cutoff position.
Today I watched two very informative videos from Captain Steeeve. Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position. Deliberate human intervention was involved.
Captain Steeeve analyzes the AAIB preliminary report for the AI 171 incident. He does a very good job explaining what happened from a cockpit perspective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00ooqCuRoU8
"Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position. Deliberate human intervention was involved."
U'mmm... yes. I thought that had been pretty well covered some days ago.
July 12: Yes, I've reviewed numerous reports from varied sources on this, and the consensus is that it's not possible to place the fuel switches into the cutoff position inadvertently.
The recovered cockpit audio indicates that one of the two pilots asked the other if he had operated those two switches, and that the other pilot denied having done so. At this point It's certainly seeming as if one of those two pilots deliberately crashed that airplane.
"Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position. Deliberate human intervention was involved."
Thanks. Wow. Wonder how I missed that - if it’s accurate ….
@hank- Not having direct access to the official report of the Indian government Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau Preliminary Report three days ago I believed the cautionary use of "seemed" to be appropriate. I have a major aversion to information presented as solid fact, if that is not necessarily the case. We have more than enough of that sort of thing from certain media sources and our own government.
"Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position. Deliberate human intervention was involved."
Thanks. Wow. Wonder how I missed that - if it’s accurate ….
But that word ”seemed”?
I decided to use the word "seemed." The choice of words was mine and does not reflect Captain Steeeve's declaration which was unambiguous. Perhaps this could have been stated somewhat differently...
Other aviation industry experts claim investigators have been highly selective in their reporting. One of the main complaints is the lack of a transcript from the cockpit voice recorder. Also, what was the engine status immediately before the fuel control switches were flipped? Pilots are trained to flip the fuel control switch to cut-off and back to restart an engine that is losing power. We may have to wait for the final report to obtain firm answers to some pending questions. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3lpdqp7x3o
AAIB report mentions that the investigative team does include an aviation psychologist.
Air India has countered media reports of medical leaves by Sr Captain Sabharwal (56 yr old) - he took some leave when his mother passed away in 2022 and also to care for his father who is 90+ year old and in ill health. He was in fact planning to retire early to take care of his father (how does the suicide-murder theory fit into that?). AAIB report mentions "Class I Medical Exam" on 9/5/24 for Captain (actually PM), 2/4/25 for copilot (actually PF) - not sure what all that exam involves.
AAIB team including US NTSB, UK AAIB, Boeing, GE most likely KNOW what happened from 26 minutes of audio from the time the plane left the gate to the moment it crashed. Unfortunately, that information hasn't been released to the public.
It was a slower/longer takeoff - a fully loaded plane on a hot day (actually, the pilots had requested the use of full-length of Runway 23).
Black Boxes should also have the info for about the state of engines and fuel supply for 3 seconds from the liftoff (also verified by the air/ground sensor) to the time the Black Box indicated that Honeywell Fuel Switches "Transitioned" to CUTOFF. From what I read, it's a standard practice when engines are failing/shutting for whatever reason for the PM (Captain Sabharwal) to toggle Fuel Switches from RUN-CUTOFF-RUN.
Anyway, there is lot of speculation but the authorities for whatever reason have decided to withhold the info they actually have on hand.
The Truth About the Air India Crash Hooray for India’s investigators, who broke the tradition of covering up pilot error.
In agreement I refer back to my observation a few days ago:
"In situations where substantial financial or reputational factors are involved it would be unexceptional to see a governmental suggestion that some responsibility should be assigned to an aircraft design or manufacture. That is evidently not the case here. "
While non-topical, this is the notion from the article that got my attention:
“Does it even make sense to keep trying (and evidently failing) to place two highly skilled pilots in the cockpit when the job consists of letting the plane fly itself while their expensively acquired and maintained skills simply atrophy? And why is the potential for active control from the ground not being pursued as well as the full advantages of satellite-based navigation …”
Long as they keep the nice looking female flight attendants on board, guess I could do w/o the pilots. And who’s to say a ground controller couldn’t succumb to some rash impulse owing to a mental infirmity and doom a flight - or a whole bunch of them?
“'The junior investigators and the trolls are still making a big deal about engine failure, software issues, FADEC problems. They're not part of the process,' Feith continues. The AAIB 'had a team of subject matter experts dissecting all of this in that 30-day period. You think they didn't look at that? It makes no logical sense,' he adds.”
“'And oh, by the way, it's no longer an accident. It's investigated as a criminal event, just like EgyptAir, just like Germanwings, just like SilkAir. These are criminal events—intentional acts,' he adds, referring to three fatal crashes deemed to have been deliberately caused which occurred in 1999, 2015 and 1997 respectively.”
Someone referenced the following information on another forum. Aerospace Engineer Richard Godfrey provides a hypothesis for the AI 171 crash. I haven't heard this from anyone else and have no idea how accurate his thesis may be.
“The most likely cause of the accident, involving Air India flight 171, was water ingress into the electronic equipment (EE) bay, during rotation and that led to a simultaneous electrical disruption of the EEC and FADEC and the electrical power buses feeding both FADECs and EECs. This resulted in a near instantaneous shutdown of both engines at low air speed and low altitude.”
“The aviation expert attributed the tragedy to lapses in maintenance oversight and non-compliance with FAA Airworthiness Directive 2025. This directive, he noted, explicitly warns about water ingress into the EE bay and calls for improvements to the cabin ceiling to prevent such incidents.”
If that is the case, point the finger at the ground maintenance crew, yes? Airlines typically outsource those jobs. Would it help in the future to require airlines to do their OWN maintenance work? There'd be more accountability that way. I know AA and other US carriers have their planes worked on in Latin America, where they can pay workers in peanuts or bananas. Shameful.... I can recall the former AA head named Carty being interviewed. With budget cuts everywhere, always and continually, Carty said at a particular airport down there, a RECORDING of a barking dog was used for security purposes, rather than to hire a human. Jayzuz. Neither was there money in the budget for dogfood, in order to have an ACTUAL dog in place.
"Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position. Deliberate human intervention was involved."
Water intrusion does NOT physically operate fuel control switches.
I have been following the news SINCE the incomplete AAIB Report was published.
I do feel that 26 minutes of Black Box audio from the time AI 171 left the gate until the crash in combination with data from the front* Black Box should provide investigators (India AAIB, US NTSB, UK AAIB, Boeing, GE) a likely cause of the crash. But for some reason, they have decided to take approach of remaining mum and have asked the public to just wait for the final report. *The rear Black Box was surprisingly too damaged for normal data recovery, but I haven't seen more news about any special data recovery - although that has inspired related rumors.
I have also seen the news that the AAIB Report release was rushed when the US NTSB threated to release its own summary (based on the shared info to-date) and/or walkout of the investigation. Notably, the AAIB Report was released in the dark of the night India time. The US and European media had the first go at reactions and the Indian media cried foul. Some incompleteness and time gaps in the AAIB Report seem deliberate.
So, here are several new theories post-AAIB Report:
Pilot suicide theory - Senior Captain (and pilot monitoring/PM) who was close to retiring, his mother passed away in 2022, his father is not in good health. A smoking gun would be a huge insurance policy he may have bought recently, but there was no such news. But, if he was planning to retire early to spend more time with his father, how did the crash help?
Software TCMA/FADEC issues (Schivao) - this deep insight started days before the AAIB Report but has lingered after. It pointed to possible software or hardware (including chips) issues. But no actions required by Boeing or FAA discount that. Several airlines, including Air India, double-checked Honeywell fuel switches on their own and no problems were reported. AI 171 Dreamliner had throttle control module (that houses fuel switches) replaced in 2019 and 2023 and no problems with Honeywell switches were noted or reported since.
Tail fire from electrical short or battery. Tail area houses the APU (auxiliary power unit), the rear Black Box, rudder controls, etc. The tail section separated BEFORE the impact (that caused fire damage from subsequent fuel explosion), but it still had severe fire damage in some areas. In fact, the rear Black Box was so damaged that its data couldn't be recovered by normal processes.
Water leaks into the tail zone housing electronics may be another cause of total system failure. These leaks from the main cabin or other water systems can be from poorly maintained seals. There have been related FAA advisories. This may be seen as a design flaw (not properly isolating areas housing sensitive electronics) or a maintenance issue (FAA advisories about addressing water leak/seepage through tapes or tape-dam seem concerning).
Faulty WOW (weight-on-wheels) sensor? AAIB Report did indicate a successful transition from on-ground to in-air without further comments.
We need to remember that the information regarding the physical operation of the fuel switches came from the initial report by the Indian air authority, and my comments are predicated on that information being accurate. If not, all bets are off.
However: it's very hard to imagine the Indian air authority saying that an Indian pilot deliberately turned off those switches if there was any possibility that an aircraft malfunction could be blamed. That sort of thing simply doesn't make any sense at all.
I’ve followed aviation accidents for over 50 years as I’m sure you have OJ. Perhaps we’ll never know for sure what led to this. But that aircraft was very stable with nose up configuration right to the end. No total systems failure. It takes a lot of electronics operating perfectly to pull that off - and at such a low airspeed. It just did not have enough thrust at the most critical point of flight. Tail struck first because the tail is down during takeoff. Planes rotate to nose up 50% of the way to the end of the runway or less under normal procedures which this craft seemed to adhere to.
Source may be of interest. Covers the various electrical backup systems on a 787
”The main battery is there to power the aircraft up when everything has een switched off and also in cases of extreme electrical failure in flight. It provides power to start the APU, acts as a back-up for the brakes and also feeds the captain's flight instruments until the Ram Air Turbine deploys.”
Comments
Has your initial thinking in that regard changed substantially as new information has come to light?
Further … Assuming your initial thought was indeed the case, might the captain (riding in the right seat) have heard a click or noticed some arm movement from the First Officer and first thought it was the retraction of the gear? I’ve just re-watched the video and note that the landing gear appears to remain fully deployed as the plane descends. (WTF will they release the full cockpit audio? So many questions.)
I’m not trying to write a Hitchcock thriller. Like all here I want the investigation to dig more deeply and arrive at a plausible / accurate conclusion / cause. Technology on a modern plane like that should be sophisticated enough to identify the cause. Apparently they haven’t gotten around yet to video recording inside the cockpit as they do with audio.
@Old_Joe sometimes moves these types of threads to off-topic after a brief debut here. Perhaps @Crash will so consider.
A Boeing 787 pilot had stated:
"In these modern aeroplanes, you don't need to cut off the fuel control switch.
Everything is transmitted electronically. So, even if the fuel switch is in the run position,
it can go into the cutoff position without moving the fuel control switch.
The fuel can just shut off. If there is something wrong with the software,
it commands the fuel shutoff valve to close. With the fuel control switch still in run position,
the engines can shut down."
This pilot's comments suggested that fuel may have been cut off via software
even if the fuel control switches were not moved to the cutoff position.
Today I watched two very informative videos from Captain Steeeve.
Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder data seemed to indicate
the fuel control switches were physically moved to the cutoff position.
Deliberate human intervention was involved.
Captain Steeeve analyzes the AAIB preliminary report for the AI 171 incident.
He does a very good job explaining what happened from a cockpit perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00ooqCuRoU8
Captain Steeeve answers viewer's questions about the AI 171 incident.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ5oHyNfcAE
U'mmm... yes. I thought that had been pretty well covered some days ago.
Thanks. Wow. Wonder how I missed that - if it’s accurate ….
But that word ”seemed”?
I decided to use the word "seemed."
The choice of words was mine and does not reflect Captain Steeeve's declaration which was unambiguous.
Perhaps this could have been stated somewhat differently...
Other aviation industry experts claim investigators have been highly selective in their reporting.
One of the main complaints is the lack of a transcript from the cockpit voice recorder.
Also, what was the engine status immediately before the fuel control switches were flipped?
Pilots are trained to flip the fuel control switch to cut-off and back to restart an engine that is losing power.
We may have to wait for the final report to obtain firm answers to some pending questions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3lpdqp7x3o
Points to senior pilot having cut off the fuel.
Air India has countered media reports of medical leaves by Sr Captain Sabharwal (56 yr old) - he took some leave when his mother passed away in 2022 and also to care for his father who is 90+ year old and in ill health. He was in fact planning to retire early to take care of his father (how does the suicide-murder theory fit into that?). AAIB report mentions "Class I Medical Exam" on 9/5/24 for Captain (actually PM), 2/4/25 for copilot (actually PF) - not sure what all that exam involves.
AAIB team including US NTSB, UK AAIB, Boeing, GE most likely KNOW what happened from 26 minutes of audio from the time the plane left the gate to the moment it crashed. Unfortunately, that information hasn't been released to the public.
It was a slower/longer takeoff - a fully loaded plane on a hot day (actually, the pilots had requested the use of full-length of Runway 23).
Black Boxes should also have the info for about the state of engines and fuel supply for 3 seconds from the liftoff (also verified by the air/ground sensor) to the time the Black Box indicated that Honeywell Fuel Switches "Transitioned" to CUTOFF. From what I read, it's a standard practice when engines are failing/shutting for whatever reason for the PM (Captain Sabharwal) to toggle Fuel Switches from RUN-CUTOFF-RUN.
Anyway, there is lot of speculation but the authorities for whatever reason have decided to withhold the info they actually have on hand.
The Truth About the Air India Crash
Hooray for India’s investigators, who broke the tradition of covering up pilot error.
In agreement I refer back to my observation a few days ago:
While non-topical, this is the notion from the article that got my attention:
“Does it even make sense to keep trying (and evidently failing) to place two highly skilled pilots in the cockpit when the job consists of letting the plane fly itself while their expensively acquired and maintained skills simply atrophy? And why is the potential for active control from the ground not being pursued as well as the full advantages of satellite-based navigation …”
Long as they keep the nice looking female flight attendants on board, guess I could do w/o the pilots.
And who’s to say a ground controller couldn’t succumb to some rash impulse owing to a mental infirmity and doom a flight - or a whole bunch of them?
“'And oh, by the way, it's no longer an accident. It's investigated as a criminal event, just like EgyptAir, just like Germanwings, just like SilkAir. These are criminal events—intentional acts,' he adds, referring to three fatal crashes deemed to have been deliberately caused which occurred in 1999, 2015 and 1997 respectively.”
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/safety-ops-regulation/air-india-787-crash-being-investigated-criminal-act-says-safety
Aerospace Engineer Richard Godfrey provides a hypothesis for the AI 171 crash.
I haven't heard this from anyone else and have no idea how accurate his thesis may be.
“The most likely cause of the accident, involving Air India flight 171, was water ingress into the electronic equipment (EE) bay, during rotation and that led to a simultaneous electrical disruption of the EEC
and FADEC and the electrical power buses feeding both FADECs and EECs.
This resulted in a near instantaneous shutdown of both engines at low air speed and low altitude.”
“The aviation expert attributed the tragedy to lapses in maintenance oversight and non-compliance
with FAA Airworthiness Directive 2025. This directive, he noted, explicitly warns about water ingress
into the EE bay and calls for improvements to the cabin ceiling to prevent such incidents.”
https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/rat-was-deployed-before-cutoff-aviation-expert-richard-godfrey-shares-root-cause-of-ai-171-crash-rules-out-pilot-error/3941541/
Water intrusion does NOT physically operate fuel control switches.
I do feel that 26 minutes of Black Box audio from the time AI 171 left the gate until the crash in combination with data from the front* Black Box should provide investigators (India AAIB, US NTSB, UK AAIB, Boeing, GE) a likely cause of the crash. But for some reason, they have decided to take approach of remaining mum and have asked the public to just wait for the final report.
*The rear Black Box was surprisingly too damaged for normal data recovery, but I haven't seen more news about any special data recovery - although that has inspired related rumors.
I have also seen the news that the AAIB Report release was rushed when the US NTSB threated to release its own summary (based on the shared info to-date) and/or walkout of the investigation. Notably, the AAIB Report was released in the dark of the night India time. The US and European media had the first go at reactions and the Indian media cried foul. Some incompleteness and time gaps in the AAIB Report seem deliberate.
So, here are several new theories post-AAIB Report:
Pilot suicide theory - Senior Captain (and pilot monitoring/PM) who was close to retiring, his mother passed away in 2022, his father is not in good health. A smoking gun would be a huge insurance policy he may have bought recently, but there was no such news. But, if he was planning to retire early to spend more time with his father, how did the crash help?
Software TCMA/FADEC issues (Schivao) - this deep insight started days before the AAIB Report but has lingered after. It pointed to possible software or hardware (including chips) issues. But no actions required by Boeing or FAA discount that. Several airlines, including Air India, double-checked Honeywell fuel switches on their own and no problems were reported. AI 171 Dreamliner had throttle control module (that houses fuel switches) replaced in 2019 and 2023 and no problems with Honeywell switches were noted or reported since.
Tail fire from electrical short or battery. Tail area houses the APU (auxiliary power unit), the rear Black Box, rudder controls, etc. The tail section separated BEFORE the impact (that caused fire damage from subsequent fuel explosion), but it still had severe fire damage in some areas. In fact, the rear Black Box was so damaged that its data couldn't be recovered by normal processes.
Water leaks into the tail zone housing electronics may be another cause of total system failure. These leaks from the main cabin or other water systems can be from poorly maintained seals. There have been related FAA advisories. This may be seen as a design flaw (not properly isolating areas housing sensitive electronics) or a maintenance issue (FAA advisories about addressing water leak/seepage through tapes or tape-dam seem concerning).
Faulty WOW (weight-on-wheels) sensor? AAIB Report did indicate a successful transition from on-ground to in-air without further comments.
However: it's very hard to imagine the Indian air authority saying that an Indian pilot deliberately turned off those switches if there was any possibility that an aircraft malfunction could be blamed. That sort of thing simply doesn't make any sense at all.
Source may be of interest. Covers the various electrical backup systems on a 787
”The main battery is there to power the aircraft up when everything has een switched off and also in cases of extreme electrical failure in flight. It provides power to start the APU, acts as a back-up for the brakes and also feeds the captain's flight instruments until the Ram Air Turbine deploys.”