Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"We got a decent monthly job report today. We created 147K jobs, the government lost more jobs, unemployment is still good at 4.1%."
Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June which was higher than the estimate of 110,000. Government employment (state and local) led all categories with an increase of 73,000. Private payrolls had the smallest gain in eight months—74,000. Also, labor force participation fell to its lowest rate since December 2022—62.3%. People who have dropped out of the labor force are not represented in unemployment rate statistics.
Shomer Shabbos! I don't roll on that day!!!! I told that stinking Kraut not to schedule...
...She kidnapped herself, man. It's all one big MAGA lie. And at least half the voters were stoopid enough to buy it. That's the awful shame underneath the dreadful news every single day.
...And this has nothing to do with Vietnam, Walter. Is this your homework, Larry?
This loser country cannot respond as it should and once did
" ... on Oct. 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, Sputnik, into space.
Americans were shocked but responded with confidence. Within a year the United States had created NASA and A.R.P.A. (later DARPA), the research agency that among other things helped create the internet. In 1958, Dwight Eisenhower signed the National Defense Education Act, one of the most important education reforms of the 20th century, which improved training, especially in math, science and foreign languages. The National Science Foundation budget tripled. The Department of Defense vastly increased spending on research and development. Within a few years total research and development spending across many agencies zoomed up to nearly 12 percent of the entire federal budget. (It’s about 3 percent today.)
America’s leaders understood that a superpower rivalry is as much an intellectual contest as a military and economic one. It’s who can out-innovate whom. So they fought the Soviet threat with education, with the goal of maximizing talent on our side.
“One reason the U.S. economy had such a good Cold War was that the American university had an ever better one,” the historian Hal Brands writes in his book “The Twilight Struggle.” Federal support for academic research rose to $1.45 billion in 1970 from $254 million in 1958. Earlier in that century, American universities lagged behind their “best” European peers, Brands observes; by the end of the Cold War, they dominated the globe.
Sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world every weekday morning. Get it sent to your inbox. Today we are in a second Cold War. For the first couple of decades it wasn’t clear whether China was a rival or a friend, but now it’s pretty clear that China is more a rival than a friend. As the scholar Robert D. Atkinson argued in The Times this year, for the Chinese regime, the desire to make money is secondary. “Its primary goal is to damage America’s economy and pave the way for China to become the world’s pre-eminent power,” he wrote.
China is a country that, according a 2024 House committee inquiry, was directly subsidizing the manufacture and export of fentanyl materials, even though drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans 18 to 44.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has moved — confidently — to seize the future, especially in the realm of innovation and ideas. China’s total research and development funding has grown 16-fold since 2000. Now China is surging ahead of the United States in a range of academic spheres. In 2003, Chinese scholars produced very few broadly cited research papers. Now they produce more “high impact” research papers than Americans do, and according to The Economist, they absolutely dominate research in the following fields: materials science, chemistry, engineering, computer science, the environment and ecology, agricultural science, physics and math.
These achievements of course lead directly to China’s advantages across a range of high-tech industries. It’s not just high-tech manufacturing of things like electric vehicles, drones and solar panels. It’s high-tech everything. In the years between 2003 and 2007, according to a study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the United States led the way in 60 of 64 frontier technologies — stretching across sectors such as defense, space, energy, the environment, computing and biotech. By the period between 2019 and 2023, the Chinese led among 57 of those 64 key technologies, while the United States led in only seven.
The Chinese gains in biotech are startling. In 2015 Chinese drugmakers accounted for just under 6 percent of the innovative drugs under development in the world. Ten years later, Chinese drugmakers are nearly at parity with American ones. ... "
@davidrmoran, thank you for sharing this piece from NYT. Today China is a frenemy to US in all aspect of high tech and drug manufacturing. They should not viewed as a low cost manufacturers of cheap goods back in the 80's. Take a look at the smartphone production as an example.
Yeah - For sure ….. Off various news wires today …
- The Corporation for Public Broadcasting just announced it is shutting down.
- U.S. just notched its worst 3 months for job growth since the pandemic.
- Trump is firing the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Expect better numbers next month.)
- Trump is deploying 2 nuclear submarines to “appropriate” locations in response to something “provocative” a former Russian president said.
- Housing starts (an economic bellweather) continue to fall.
- Plans for a new $200 Million White House ”ballroom” have been unveiled.
- Homelessness grows.
- Chicago had the worst air quality of any city in the world yesterday.
- U.S. stocks of every color are getting slammed today after several poor days.
- Kimberly Clark is raising prices on 25% of its consumer products (including Charmin Tissue ) citing the impact of tariffs.
- A B52 doing a ceremonial fly-over nearly took out a plane full of passengers on final approach last week. Somebody screwed up, and it wasn’t the civilian crew. Follows January’s Washington tragedy, blame for which the NTSB has clearly placed at the feet of the military command (after one of profound arrogance suggested it was related to gender, racial, ethnic diversity programs).
- Gold’s up on all this “good” news. Keep a few ounces in your pocket. You may need it.
Old poem:
”Well, that may be so But I don’t know It sounds so mighty queer. I really don’t like to doubt your word But your bullshit don’t go here.”
Donald Trump has said he’s ordered the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after data showed US employment growth was weaker than expected for the last few months.
McEntarfer was nominated by former president Joe Biden to serve in the role in 2023 and was confirmed by the US Senate the following year.
In a Truth Social post, Trump suggested (with no evidence) that the employment figures were inaccurate and insisted the US economy was booming under his administration.
“We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified,” Trump wrote.
The bureau released revised job stats today which showed the US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, amid ongoing concerns with Trump’s escalating trade war.
In the report, the BLS also slashed the number of jobs added in May, revising the figure down by 125,000, from 144,000 to only 19,000, and June, which was revised down by 133,000, from 147,000 to just 14,000 – a combined 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.
OK folks- any government statistics are now only what Trump says they are. Good luck to everyone !
trump 2.0 long realized despite being a cult leader, america is far too big for any 1 man to supply the volume of lies craved by the gop. some effects of lies will be too late, but many will be ignored in the church of cognitive dissonance.
Those are quite large revisions -- 144+147 to 19&14 ( 291-thousand to 33-thousand!) Do they just guess based on the last 3 months or something and then later collect the real numbers? We all thought this was going to happen, maybe it's the start.
Those are quite large revisions -- 144+147 to 19&14 ( 291-thousand to 33-thousand!) Do they just guess based on the last 3 months or something and then later collect the real numbers? We all thought this was going to happen, maybe it's the start.
Yes, these revisions are quite large! I don't have any specific facts regarding the latest revisions. Initial estimates of payroll employment provide a preliminary look at what occurred each month. As additional information becomes available, the estimates are revised. Subsequent payroll employment releases are therefore more accurate than the initial release.
- U.S. stocks of every color are getting slammed today after several poor days.
How about telling us a bit more? The SP500 made more than 25% in 3+ months (April-July). History shows us that a rapid upward like that results in a giveaway. Aug-Sep are notoriously weak months of the year. See https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=$SPX
=============================
Thanks for always looking at the half-empty cup in the last 6 months and the next 3.5 years.
=============================
The EU signed on 15% tariffs and will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028.
While the southern border remains safer than many portray — and in fact, safer than in years past — I can’t help but think about the implications if Kamala Harris were to become president.
Personally, I have serious doubts about her leadership capabilities. From handling the southern border to navigating both domestic and international challenges, she hasn’t shown the kind of decisive management we need.
And now she’s reportedly stepped away from the California governor race — which, to me, signals a lack of direction.
I've posted the following in another thread and copied it below for your viewing pleasure.
Revisions to payroll employment data are part of the routine process. The May and June revisions in the latest release were much larger than usual. Although I don't know what caused these major revisions, it's likely that BLS process improvements can be made.
Trump alleged that the data was rigged or manipulated. There is absolutely no evidence to support this! It's obvious that the BLS commissioner was fired because the revised data was disliked by the administration. A quintessential example of shooting the messenger...
“One reason that the U.S. is regarded as one of the better places to invest is the accuracy of the data, where the data is not manipulated by the government to satisfy whatever the government is trying to communicate.” —Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, CFRA Research
“I can't recall revisions of this magnitude, but I also think that it's really unprecedented for a president to just fire someone for numbers they don't like without really trying to determine why first. And that's not a good sign.” —Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Analyst, Interactive Brokers
“(Trump) didn't seem to be disappointed with the last five jobs reports. It was only today's where this member of the BLS seems to be incompetent, so that stands out as irregular. I think this is clearly something that happens in dictatorships, not in democracies.” —Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley Wealth
This is about the plans for a new $200M White House ballroom. Didn't the president have more urgent matters to contemplate rather than transforming the White House (aka People's House) into Mar-a-Lago II? Like ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza as he promised to do? Or ending inflation on day one, ending taxes on Social Security, making IVF free, releasing the Epstein files... There was ample work to keep him very busy!
I've posted the following in another thread and copied it below for your viewing pleasure.
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017. Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units" may be the cause for large revisions in May/June.
“We got some information from people, from businesses, and we think it was state and local education units, that was quite different than the first set of data points. Does this mean the economy is slowing down or does it just mean that we're having a problem in a particular sector of the economy, in this case, state and local education, which is very important, by the way, to the job estimates?”
“That remains to be seen. But the point is, the revisions were made because there was more information. Now, they were big revisions, absolutely, no question about that. And not too many of those big revisions occur, though many did under my tenure because I was the commissioner during COVID, totally different reasons why the revisions were big.”
Now, they were big revisions, absolutely, no question about that. And not too many of those big revisions occur, though many did under my tenure because I was the commissioner during COVID, totally different reasons why the revisions were big.”
Exactly why the BLS commissioner got fired. A 90% down revision hasn't happened in over 50 years.
Thanks to Observant for keeping it real, despite attempted misdirection, deflection, whataboutisms and the usual straw men.
The last administrations had the highest inflation and bond loss in 4 decades, the 2021 Afgan terrible withdrawal, and an incoherent prez, just to name a few...and you never made a small complaint. Just keep it real
I made a promise to myself never, ever to respond to FD. But “Just keep it real. ” if the revisions were upward you wouldn’t have said anything and the king wouldn’t have fired her. I am not a statistic expert but with all the uncertainty and changed my mind caused by the moron and his band of creeps ,,,, data harvesting is particularly difficult. “Just keep it real”
You are right to be concerned about an incoherent president. Donald J. Trump seems to have experienced severe mental decline over the past several years. The American people should demand that Mr. Trump undergo a comprehensive cognitive test. Putting politics aside, he obviously does not have the mental acuity to be president or commander-in-chief.
You are right to be concerned about an incoherent president.
In addition, did you see the size of his swollen ankles?!?! The fake news out of the White House would like you to believe that is chronic venous insufficiency. Baloney.
Can you spell congestive heart failure? If not, repeat after me. CHF.
Now, they were big revisions, absolutely, no question about that. And not too many of those big revisions occur, though many did under my tenure because I was the commissioner during COVID, totally different reasons why the revisions were big.”
Exactly why the BLS commissioner got fired. A 90% down revision hasn't happened in over 50 years.
Bullshit. Trump wrongly accused the BLS commissioner of manipulating the numbers. There is absolutely no evidence to support his assertion. Even a blind man could see that the commissioner was fired because the numbers were not favorable for the Trump administration. Third-world countries or "banana republics" typically fire (or kill!) the messenger when they deliver bad news. Oh, how America has steeply declined in a very short time under the current Trump regime!
Orange felon pervert would-be king. Isn't he dead YET? No love for Joe here. But the Orange grifter is a heinous, malignant lump upon society. The BLS Head does not even have access to the numbers that Orange Cheeto-head claimed she manipulated. And hey, when new info arrives, it's best NOT to ignore it.
Sometimes we must judge a man by the politicians that he admires. And sometimes we must judge a man by the fact that he doesn't give a damn if his country is being destroyed as long as he makes money on it. Sometimes we call such a man a cretin.
Comments
We created 147K jobs, the government lost more jobs, unemployment is still good at 4.1%."
Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June which was higher than the estimate of 110,000.
Government employment (state and local) led all categories with an increase of 73,000.
Private payrolls had the smallest gain in eight months—74,000.
Also, labor force participation fell to its lowest rate since December 2022—62.3%.
People who have dropped out of the labor force are not represented in unemployment rate statistics.
...She kidnapped herself, man.
It's all one big MAGA lie. And at least half the voters were stoopid enough to buy it. That's the awful shame underneath the dreadful news every single day.
...And this has nothing to do with Vietnam, Walter. Is this your homework, Larry?
This loser country cannot respond as it should and once did
" ... on Oct. 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, Sputnik, into space.
Americans were shocked but responded with confidence. Within a year the United States had created NASA and A.R.P.A. (later DARPA), the research agency that among other things helped create the internet. In 1958, Dwight Eisenhower signed the National Defense Education Act, one of the most important education reforms of the 20th century, which improved training, especially in math, science and foreign languages. The National Science Foundation budget tripled. The Department of Defense vastly increased spending on research and development. Within a few years total research and development spending across many agencies zoomed up to nearly 12 percent of the entire federal budget. (It’s about 3 percent today.)
America’s leaders understood that a superpower rivalry is as much an intellectual contest as a military and economic one. It’s who can out-innovate whom. So they fought the Soviet threat with education, with the goal of maximizing talent on our side.
“One reason the U.S. economy had such a good Cold War was that the American university had an ever better one,” the historian Hal Brands writes in his book “The Twilight Struggle.” Federal support for academic research rose to $1.45 billion in 1970 from $254 million in 1958. Earlier in that century, American universities lagged behind their “best” European peers, Brands observes; by the end of the Cold War, they dominated the globe.
Sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world every weekday morning. Get it sent to your inbox.
Today we are in a second Cold War. For the first couple of decades it wasn’t clear whether China was a rival or a friend, but now it’s pretty clear that China is more a rival than a friend. As the scholar Robert D. Atkinson argued in The Times this year, for the Chinese regime, the desire to make money is secondary. “Its primary goal is to damage America’s economy and pave the way for China to become the world’s pre-eminent power,” he wrote.
China is a country that, according a 2024 House committee inquiry, was directly subsidizing the manufacture and export of fentanyl materials, even though drug overdose is the leading cause of death among Americans 18 to 44.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has moved — confidently — to seize the future, especially in the realm of innovation and ideas. China’s total research and development funding has grown 16-fold since 2000. Now China is surging ahead of the United States in a range of academic spheres. In 2003, Chinese scholars produced very few broadly cited research papers. Now they produce more “high impact” research papers than Americans do, and according to The Economist, they absolutely dominate research in the following fields: materials science, chemistry, engineering, computer science, the environment and ecology, agricultural science, physics and math.
These achievements of course lead directly to China’s advantages across a range of high-tech industries. It’s not just high-tech manufacturing of things like electric vehicles, drones and solar panels. It’s high-tech everything. In the years between 2003 and 2007, according to a study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the United States led the way in 60 of 64 frontier technologies — stretching across sectors such as defense, space, energy, the environment, computing and biotech. By the period between 2019 and 2023, the Chinese led among 57 of those 64 key technologies, while the United States led in only seven.
The Chinese gains in biotech are startling. In 2015 Chinese drugmakers accounted for just under 6 percent of the innovative drugs under development in the world. Ten years later, Chinese drugmakers are nearly at parity with American ones. ... "
Yeah - For sure ….. Off various news wires today …
- The Corporation for Public Broadcasting just announced it is shutting down.
- U.S. just notched its worst 3 months for job growth since the pandemic.
- Trump is firing the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Expect better numbers next month.)
- Trump is deploying 2 nuclear submarines to “appropriate” locations in response to something “provocative” a former Russian president said.
- Housing starts (an economic bellweather) continue to fall.
- Plans for a new $200 Million White House ”ballroom” have been unveiled.
- Homelessness grows.
- Chicago had the worst air quality of any city in the world yesterday.
- U.S. stocks of every color are getting slammed today after several poor days.
- Kimberly Clark is raising prices on 25% of its consumer products (including Charmin Tissue ) citing the impact of tariffs.
- A B52 doing a ceremonial fly-over nearly took out a plane full of passengers on final approach last week. Somebody screwed up, and it wasn’t the civilian crew. Follows January’s Washington tragedy, blame for which the NTSB has clearly placed at the feet of the military command (after one of profound arrogance suggested it was related to gender, racial, ethnic diversity programs).
- Gold’s up on all this “good” news. Keep a few ounces in your pocket. You may need it.
Old poem:
”Well, that may be so
But I don’t know
It sounds so mighty queer.
I really don’t like to doubt your word
But your bullshit don’t go here.”
A report from The Guardian: OK folks- any government statistics are now only what Trump says they are. Good luck to everyone !
trump 2.0 long realized despite being a cult leader, america is far too big for any 1 man to supply the volume of lies craved by the gop.
some effects of lies will be too late, but many will be ignored in the church of cognitive dissonance.
Do they just guess based on the last 3 months or something and then later collect the real numbers? We all thought this was going to happen, maybe it's the start.
I don't have any specific facts regarding the latest revisions.
Initial estimates of payroll employment provide a preliminary look at what occurred each month.
As additional information becomes available, the estimates are revised.
Subsequent payroll employment releases are therefore more accurate than the initial release.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm
Not if Trump says their not. You obviously don't understand the underlying principles of our new improved reporting systems.
You have a valid point, sir!
Because we haven't seen a reduction of about 90% for previous months in more than 5 decades.
==============================
The lie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvbvGbm7G1k)
The truth (https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6376395722112)
============================== How about telling us a bit more? The SP500 made more than 25% in 3+ months (April-July).
History shows us that a rapid upward like that results in a giveaway.
Aug-Sep are notoriously weak months of the year. See https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=$SPX
=============================
Thanks for always looking at the half-empty cup in the last 6 months and the next 3.5 years.
=============================
The EU signed on 15% tariffs and will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028.
While the southern border remains safer than many portray — and in fact, safer than in years past — I can’t help but think about the implications if Kamala Harris were to become president.
Personally, I have serious doubts about her leadership capabilities. From handling the southern border to navigating both domestic and international challenges, she hasn’t shown the kind of decisive management we need.
And now she’s reportedly stepped away from the California governor race — which, to me, signals a lack of direction.
Revisions to payroll employment data are part of the routine process.
The May and June revisions in the latest release were much larger than usual.
Although I don't know what caused these major revisions,
it's likely that BLS process improvements can be made.
Trump alleged that the data was rigged or manipulated.
There is absolutely no evidence to support this!
It's obvious that the BLS commissioner was fired because the revised data was disliked by the administration.
A quintessential example of shooting the messenger...
“One reason that the U.S. is regarded as one of the better places to invest is the accuracy of the data,
where the data is not manipulated by the government to satisfy whatever the government is trying to communicate.”
—Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, CFRA Research
“I can't recall revisions of this magnitude, but I also think that it's really unprecedented for a president
to just fire someone for numbers they don't like without really trying to determine why first.
And that's not a good sign.”
—Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Analyst, Interactive Brokers
“(Trump) didn't seem to be disappointed with the last five jobs reports.
It was only today's where this member of the BLS seems to be incompetent, so that stands out as irregular.
I think this is clearly something that happens in dictatorships, not in democracies.”
—Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley Wealth
Didn't the president have more urgent matters to contemplate rather than
transforming the White House (aka People's House) into Mar-a-Lago II?
Like ending the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza as he promised to do?
Or ending inflation on day one, ending taxes on Social Security,
making IVF free, releasing the Epstein files...
There was ample work to keep him very busy!
Instead, Trump spent approximately one-third of his current presidency visting his own properties.
“He went to one of his clubs 16 of his first 17 weekends, and he has now spent time at his businesses
on 75 of his first 190 days back in office, according to a Forbes analysis, traveling to Florida, New Jersey,
Virginia, Nevada and, of course, Scotland.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/07/29/trump-has-spent-about-one-third-of-his-presidency-visiting-his-own-properties/
Perhaps if Trump curtailed visits to his own personal properties and focused on crucial
presidential responsibilities, he could fulfill the promises he made to the American people?
In my humble opinion, he should seek treatment for persistent narcissistic personality disorder!
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20366662
Firing people for telling the emperor that his new clothes appear "lacking"
is the work of tyrants. Some folks like tyrants, clearly.
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017.
Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units" may be the cause
for large revisions in May/June.
“We got some information from people, from businesses, and we think it was state and local education units,
that was quite different than the first set of data points. Does this mean the economy is slowing down
or does it just mean that we're having a problem in a particular sector of the economy, in this case,
state and local education, which is very important, by the way, to the job estimates?”
“That remains to be seen.
But the point is, the revisions were made because there was more information.
Now, they were big revisions, absolutely, no question about that.
And not too many of those big revisions occur, though many did under my tenure
because I was the commissioner during COVID, totally different reasons why the revisions were big.”
Just keep it real
You are right to be concerned about an incoherent president.
Donald J. Trump seems to have experienced severe mental decline over the past several years.
The American people should demand that Mr. Trump undergo a comprehensive cognitive test.
Putting politics aside, he obviously does not have the mental acuity to be president or commander-in-chief.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/president-donald-trump-rose-garden-speech
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/donald-trump-labeled-deranged-and-incoherent-as-mark-rutte-meeting-sparks-panic/ar-AA1IAlwl
https://newrepublic.com/post/183641/watch-trump-fumbles-terrifying-speech-florida-rally
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/05/04/trump-interview-abc-time-mental-decline/83391080007/
You are right to be concerned about an incoherent president.
In addition, did you see the size of his swollen ankles?!?! The fake news out of the White House would like you to believe that is chronic venous insufficiency. Baloney.
Can you spell congestive heart failure? If not, repeat after me. CHF.
Trump wrongly accused the BLS commissioner of manipulating the numbers.
There is absolutely no evidence to support his assertion.
Even a blind man could see that the commissioner was fired because the numbers were not favorable
for the Trump administration.
Third-world countries or "banana republics" typically fire (or kill!) the messenger when they deliver bad news.
Oh, how America has steeply declined in a very short time under the current Trump regime!
The BLS Head does not even have access to the numbers that Orange Cheeto-head claimed she manipulated. And hey, when new info arrives, it's best NOT to ignore it.