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Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
Week by week and day by day,,,, all norms are being destroyed….the unique combination of laws, transparency, separation of powers and no king/ despot ,,,, that made businesses thrive in the United States are being shattered. All because so many would follow a mad moron because he makes racism, sexism and xenophobia acceptable.
He would probably like to do something about the Institute For Supply Management after their latest report. Per Reuters:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month in July and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years amid tariffs that have raised prices of imported raw materials.
The Orange Idiot doesn't understand how government works. Revisions are not 'fraud' or 'tampering' .... but that's all his little peabrain seems to fathom, so of course it must be 'fraud' designed to make him look bad,
Immature, narcissistic, insecure, pathological, antisocial. And utterly ignorant about anything except what he wants for himself.
As expected cult members are vigorously defending the firing saying there must be something wrong with the numbers. The glorious leader can not be wrong, it is forbidden.
The choices are to either wait until all the data is collected and properly verified, then release it months later. Or offer preliminary data, then apply revisions as the data is finalized. Three month old data may well be useless. Preliminary data can be subject to contrary revision. Pick your poison.
Anyone who is okay with firing people for failing to serve a predetermined, false narrative, is making sandwiches with the bread on the inside.
I also think that the private sector data/numbers will become more trusted. Investors will not be misled so easily. This could also backfire, when even positive true/real government numbers are viewed with skepticism.
Hi @Old_Joe The below is a very good overview. The report is widely followed, and the data is announced and discussed at/on Bloomberg and CNBC tv business programs, and others.
ADP report The ADP National Employment Report (also known as the ADP Report) is a monthly report that provides an independent measure of the US labor market's private sector. Here's a breakdown of the key information about the ADP report: 1. What it is The ADP National Employment Report measures the change in US private-sector employment and pay, according to PR Newswire. It's based on anonymized payroll data collected from over 25 million private-sector employees across the US. It's produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. 2. What it shows The report provides insights into overall private sector job gains and losses, pay growth, and sectoral employment trends. It details the change in total private employment for the current month and weekly job data from the previous month. The report includes a sectoral breakdown of employment changes by industry, allowing for detailed understanding of which sectors are growing or contracting. It also categorizes employment changes by business size (small, medium, large) to highlight trends within different-sized companies. The report also includes data on pay trends, specifically focusing on year-over-year pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers. 3. Why it's important Labor Market Indicator: It offers a timely and representative picture of the private sector, a crucial segment of the US economy. Predictive Value: The report is released before the more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report, often serving as a leading indicator for predicting the BLS numbers. Sectoral Insights: The detailed breakdown by industry helps understand specific sector performance and trends. Economic Forecasting: The job and pay data are used by economists and market analysts for economic forecasting, influencing expectations for consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth. Informs Business Strategy: The report helps companies understand labor market conditions, manage risk, and make workforce decisions, such as retention or layoff strategies. 4. Key recent findings (July 2025 report) Private employers added 104,000 jobs in July, which was higher than the expected 77,000 addition and the largest monthly gain since March. Hiring gains were primarily driven by the services sector, which added 74,000 jobs, particularly in leisure/hospitality and financial activities. However, the education and health sector experienced a net loss of jobs, continuing a negative trend for the year. Year-over-year pay growth remained relatively stable, with a 4.4% increase for job-stayers and a 7% increase for job-changers. 5. Next release The August 2025 ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on September 4, 2025, at 8:15 a.m. ET. In essence, the ADP report offers valuable insights into the health and dynamics of the US private sector labor market, acting as an important tool for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.
The BLS surveys approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies each month for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The response rate for this program has plummeted since shortly after Covid was discovered in America. The BLS has less data to work with now. https://www.bls.gov/osmr/response-rates/
It is interesting that people defending DJT running ram shod over dedicated public servants want us to believe the BLS is like a public corporation which produces earnings and profit statements from their own data. Therefore the fact that numbers were revised is indicative of incompetence.
Leaving aside the fact that many COFs cook the books to present the most favorable set of numbers they can to please the boss and the market, a simple search would tell you how different these two roles are.
Well going forward maybe they will not be very different, as the new BLS will be hired to cook the books.
The estimate of employment change is based on a monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites, selected to represent the millions of businesses throughout the country. (For simplicity, we will refer to worksites as businesses even though many individual businesses provide data for multiple worksites.) In the survey sample, businesses report the total number of people who worked or received pay during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Although BLS uses a variety of methods to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In 2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time of the initial release was 73.1 percent.
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent.
DOGE cuts to BLS had nothing to do with these revisions, of course!!
"The Consumer Price Index is more than just the most widely used inflation gauge and a measurement of Americans’ purchasing power.
However, this gold standard piece of economic data has become a little less precise recently: The Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a notice on Wednesday stating that it stopped collecting data in three not-so-small cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Buffalo, New York; and Provo, Utah) and increased “imputations” for certain items (a statistical technique that, when boiled down to very rough terms, essentially means more educated guesses).
The BLS notice states that the collection reductions “may increase the volatility of subnational or item-specific indexes” and are expected to have “minimal impact” on the overall index. "
When the CDC reports increases in Cancer incidence and mortality, those officials will be fired, also. Florida under DeSantis, fired the public health officials responsible for Covid statistics when he didn't like the trends and numbers.
People who do not see how this will affect the economy, prices and our longevity are deluding themselves.
Comments
"There are no infidels in Baghdad. None whatsoever. This is false." [US tank rolls by in the background]
Anyone who is okay with firing people for failing to serve a predetermined, false narrative, is making sandwiches with the bread on the inside.
I would think the ADP report will become more trusted going forward, maybe....?
The below is a very good overview. The report is widely followed, and the data is announced and discussed at/on Bloomberg and CNBC tv business programs, and others.
ADP report
The ADP National Employment Report (also known as the ADP Report) is a monthly report that provides an independent measure of the US labor market's private sector.
Here's a breakdown of the key information about the ADP report:
1. What it is
The ADP National Employment Report measures the change in US private-sector employment and pay, according to PR Newswire.
It's based on anonymized payroll data collected from over 25 million private-sector employees across the US.
It's produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
2. What it shows
The report provides insights into overall private sector job gains and losses, pay growth, and sectoral employment trends.
It details the change in total private employment for the current month and weekly job data from the previous month.
The report includes a sectoral breakdown of employment changes by industry, allowing for detailed understanding of which sectors are growing or contracting.
It also categorizes employment changes by business size (small, medium, large) to highlight trends within different-sized companies.
The report also includes data on pay trends, specifically focusing on year-over-year pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers.
3. Why it's important
Labor Market Indicator: It offers a timely and representative picture of the private sector, a crucial segment of the US economy.
Predictive Value: The report is released before the more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report, often serving as a leading indicator for predicting the BLS numbers.
Sectoral Insights: The detailed breakdown by industry helps understand specific sector performance and trends.
Economic Forecasting: The job and pay data are used by economists and market analysts for economic forecasting, influencing expectations for consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.
Informs Business Strategy: The report helps companies understand labor market conditions, manage risk, and make workforce decisions, such as retention or layoff strategies.
4. Key recent findings (July 2025 report)
Private employers added 104,000 jobs in July, which was higher than the expected 77,000 addition and the largest monthly gain since March.
Hiring gains were primarily driven by the services sector, which added 74,000 jobs, particularly in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.
However, the education and health sector experienced a net loss of jobs, continuing a negative trend for the year.
Year-over-year pay growth remained relatively stable, with a 4.4% increase for job-stayers and a 7% increase for job-changers.
5. Next release
The August 2025 ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on September 4, 2025, at 8:15 a.m. ET.
In essence, the ADP report offers valuable insights into the health and dynamics of the US private sector labor market, acting as an important tool for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.
each month for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.
The response rate for this program has plummeted since shortly after Covid was discovered in America.
The BLS has less data to work with now.
https://www.bls.gov/osmr/response-rates/
Issues encountered during the payroll employment collection/reporting process
are described in the article below.
www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-counting-jobs-is-really-really-hard/
Leaving aside the fact that many COFs cook the books to present the most favorable set of numbers they can to please the boss and the market, a simple search would tell you how different these two roles are.
Well going forward maybe they will not be very different, as the new BLS will be hired to cook the books.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm
The estimate of employment change is based on a monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites, selected to represent the millions of businesses throughout the country. (For simplicity, we will refer to worksites as businesses even though many individual businesses provide data for multiple worksites.) In the survey sample, businesses report the total number of people who worked or received pay during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Although BLS uses a variety of methods to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In 2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time of the initial release was 73.1 percent.
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent.
"The Consumer Price Index is more than just the most widely used inflation gauge and a measurement of Americans’ purchasing power.
However, this gold standard piece of economic data has become a little less precise recently: The Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a notice on Wednesday stating that it stopped collecting data in three not-so-small cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Buffalo, New York; and Provo, Utah) and increased “imputations” for certain items (a statistical technique that, when boiled down to very rough terms, essentially means more educated guesses).
The BLS notice states that the collection reductions “may increase the volatility of subnational or item-specific indexes” and are expected to have “minimal impact” on the overall index. "
When the CDC reports increases in Cancer incidence and mortality, those officials will be fired, also. Florida under DeSantis, fired the public health officials responsible for Covid statistics when he didn't like the trends and numbers.
People who do not see how this will affect the economy, prices and our longevity are deluding themselves.