Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

One fund solution update

2»

Comments

  • Bonds did great during the dot com bust.
    Year	S&P 500		10 year Treasuries	Baa Corporates
    2000 -9.03% 16.66% 9.39%
    2001 -11.85% 5.57% 8.54%
    2002 -21.97% 15.12% 12.14%
    https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html
    (That table also shows real returns after inflation)
  • That's my impression also. (But impressions aren't actual facts, I hasten to add.)
  • edited August 30
    Annual Returns: VFINX vs. 10-Year Treasury Fund (IEF)
    | Year | VFINX Annual Return | IEF Annual Return |
    |---|---|---|
    | 2007 | +5.39% | +10.38% |
    | 2008 | -37.02% | +17.92% |
    | 2009 | +26.52% | -6.59% |
    | 2010 | +14.91% | +9.36% |
    | 2011 | +1.96% | +15.65% |
    | 2012 | +15.82% | +3.66% |
  • Anyone rushing to put money into 10 year treasuries these days?
  • yup, yup, if we were all wise and patient we woulda put most into FXAIX the last 17y (forget VFINX)
  • edited August 31
    @msf, thank you for the NYU link. Just bookmark it. Very instructive to see different asset classes returns going back to 1926.

    @davidrmoran, that is what Warren Buffet recommended for most investor.

    @WABAC, not us. The long end of yield curve have moved up considerably this year. We have moved some short duration bonds to intermediate term bonds. Still cautious due to the sticky inflation.
  • Sven said:

    @WABAC, not us. The long end of yield curve have moved up considerably this year. We have moved some short duration bonds to intermediate term bonds. Still cautious due to the sticky inflation.

    @Sven, too many shoes to drop before I think about going much further out than the duration of a FPNIX or FTHRX, so about 3.7 max. THOPX might be an easier stretch.

    With summer over, I want to see how Mr. Market reacts to whatever numbers come out in September, not to mention his reaction to the churn from the White House and the courts.

  • @WABAC, Think we are on the same page on that. Majority of our bonds are on the shorter end. Our small moves to 5-7 years bonds have been gradually as we monitor the inflation data and employment number. Going to long duration is pre-mature at this point.

    What has not been talk about in the press is stagflation. Political pressure is mounting for September FOMC meeting.
  • Odds are leaning toward a cut, everywhere you look in the media. But they ought not to do it, in my humble opinion. Inflation is not at 2% yet. Maybe 2% under current circumstances is a pipedream, given the extraordinarily screwed up, Orange political picture.
Sign In or Register to comment.