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The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs
@Old_Joe, i use the Lancaster, CA (north of LA) store.
We also shop at Trader Joe and Aldi, and much prefer Aldi for their produce. These stores are quite different. Trader Joe is more resemble Whole Foods with lots specialty and expensive items. Aldi is very competitive to regular grocery stores. The chain is growing fast on the west coast.
Thanks, @Sven. The next time we're at the Novato Costco I'll take a look at the chicken rotisserie.
...We seldom buy those. More often for my wife. We have neighbors who buy them instead of dog food for the dog. Cheaper. But those dead chickens are always under-cooked.
Had some dead, fried chicken at Max's Filipino Restaurant yesterday. Crispy skin, perfect-a-mundo.
Trader Joe's is not what it used to be. I mostly go for the dark-yolk eggs and wine selection these days.
We have various types of ethnic markets around us for quality vegetables at reasonable prices. The Korean and Halal markets are good places to buy meat.
The only time I go to an old mainline market is to get the Kroger knock-off versions of triscuits and oyster crackers.
Geez, I've been preaching the joys of ShadowStats for some 20 odd years. teehehe
In addition to the price increase due to tariffs and labor shortages, there is a LOT of piggy-back price markups taking place across the spectrum. Recall the increases that took place during Covid totally unrelated. Anyone check their home-owners insurance lately? How about your utility bills? Shrink-flation was mentioned and note Coca-Cola is coming out with a small version. [side bets on how long before it becomes their primary sale].
I jokingly mentioned Shadowstats but I haven't trusted the gov'ts CPI numbers in decades. I grant that their calculations have been accurate, but the problem lies in what they count and how much weight things receive. It's designed to mask inflation and we all know it. Hedonic adjustments are sweet. If the product is new and improved, the additional costs don't count. What if you can no longer buy the old and unimproved version? Oh, and Greenspan equated burger with steak.
Now there is another problem. With the current administration, even when the BLS gets back to work, the calculations can no longer be trusted.
So, plain and simple, we're on our own. As the Governor used to say a long time ago, 'keep your asses low and your flak jackets close'.
The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
One-track mind. No, it's not just Dems who can see the higher prices. I'm no Dem, nor a Rep. The Orange Moron took office and soon instituted tariffs which upended any kind of trade normalcy. He claims lots of money coming into the Treasury. Who's paying it, in the end? The U.S. consumer. Businesses will eat the cost of the tariffs for only so long. Then it falls on everyone who needs to buy anything, literally.
I do believe Joe was too free in throwing around covid-era money, to rescue the economy. It resulted in big-time inflation, which Yellen, Powell and the others claimed for too long, was "transitory." They got it wrong. I see no one here denying that. Go fight your own straw man where we're not bothered by it.
Jump right in to 1:50 of this clip, if you care to taste a bit of Reality. And I never thought I'd be agreeing with Ronny Ray-guns about anything, but there it is:
The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.
Inflation is finally under control? The monthly premium on yours and mine - Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
I gather you will need to pick up a job. With your great hindsight, how about running a few funds for a big mutual fund company? If that does not meet your fancy, trade up to some faster Yugo’s.
@mona. I was thinking the same thing. Our Medicare Advantage plan went from zero to 48.00. I am the kind of nerd who thought about how to calculate the rate of inflation. And don’t forget the increase in co payments, although I will never get sick. So with the MA and the soon to be announced Medicare premium increase the social security increase is all gone. Luckily our home and auto insurance will not go up, food will not go up and on and on. Another great week week for the senior nation.
OP "The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs"
Here’s my experience: Over the past several weeks, I’ve been shopping at Walmart and Aldi every week — and I haven’t seen any issues. I also visited Kroger, Publix, and Trader Joe’s, and noticed the same. I’ve been to Home Depot and Lowe’s as well, with similar results. Our old range lasted 25 years, and when it finally broke, we had a new one delivered within two days. I stopped by Target once — no problems there either. I even helped a friend buy a Toyota, and we found plenty of inventory. The only place I saw empty shelves was at a dollar store — and yes, they were mostly cheap Chinese items.
Keep trying to spin and scare the kids—anything to bring the current admin down. Since 01/2025 Shiller house price are down 1% New auto prices are up about 0.5%. Oil, a major component of many items, is down about 25%
===============
Healthcare in America will never be cheap. It’s a massive for-profit industry for many providers, while politicians are heavily influenced by special interests.
The so-called Affordable Care Act — or as I call it, the Unaffordable Care Act (UCA) — made coverage far more expensive for those who buy directly through the marketplace.
Before the ACA, I could find solid insurance for around $400 a month with a $3,000 deductible for both of us. Two years later, both numbers had doubled — that’s one of the reasons I worked an extra year.
Fortunately, I was able to transition to Medicare over three years ago. This year, my wife paid $1,200 per month with an $8,000 deductible under the UCA until she became eligible for Medicare.
Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S. for the same price, with specialist visits at just $20.
It also includes dental coverage (up to $4,000, with no deductible), free gym access, and more.
New car prices topped $50K average for the first time. Ignore that every single automaker warned that tariffs would push prices higher.
Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.
And with rates coming down, it could end up even worse. And this impact will be on top of Covid era inflation.
Condo prices in the markets on this list have dropped by 12% to 28% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each city has its own chart below, with some additional data. Prices through September, seasonally adjusted.
The 23 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 28% from their peaks:
”Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.”
$100 now equals $90.57 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 2%.
$100 now equals $91.51 of purchasing power 3 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
$100 now equals $86.26 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
$100 now equals $84.20 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3.5%.
Sorry - Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
Re FD’s remarks - From what I’ve read, housing prices have come down somewhat over the past year in parts of the country. One of the few areas that have. But mortgage rates are still much higher than just 3 or 4 years ago. So it’s a mixed bag.
Who will buy these fantastic condos at these fantastic “low” prices?
”The median sale price for homes in Oakland, CA over the last 12 months is $850,000, down 3% from the median home sale price over the previous 12 months.”Source
Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
Then there are the lumber prices you were quoting a few years ago. In May 2018 (7½ years ago), lumber was at $600. It's now at ... $600. And forget about Covid, when everyone was sheltering in place and renovating. Prices topped out above $1600.
I sound like a broken record here, but people tend to notice bad financial data (higher prices, losses in the market) more than the notice good financial data, like rising markets. That's why we have metrics like Sortino ratio and ulcer index. And why understanding behavioral finance is important to be aware of when investing.
Well, I did say “feels like.”
The linked chart is interactive, allowing you to zoom in on the price level in 2018 (window #1 / $400) and in 2025 (window #2 / $700+). Sure looks to me like about a 10% annual increase in construction materials over that 7 year time frame.
Agree lumber prices were elevated during covid for many reasons (mostly consumers deferring travel and entertainment and investing in their homes). A wild ride.
What I suspect is that the CPI hides a lot of the inflation in basic goods by factoring in “higher quality” for things like TVs, computers, automobiles, etc. Since you’re getting “more bang for the buck” with those high tech items it brings down the CPI. Old joke: “Have you ever tried munching on a computer chip?”
Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S
I'm going off on a tangent here, but private fee for service (PFFS) plans, as this Humana H8145-069 plan is, do not give you access to all (Medicare) doctors in the US. PFFS sounds like PPO only better (same rates in and out of network), but there's a diffence.
With A PFFS plan, an out-of-network Medicare doctor must agree to be bound by the network terms of the plan or the insurer will not pay. Some Medicare doctors are "non-participating", meaning that they charge up to 15% more than the Medicare rates. (This is what Medicare calls an "excess charge", and the only Medigap plans that cover this are Plans F and G.) A non-participating provider who declines to waive this excess charge for you won't be covered.
The out-of-network doctor must bill the plan for services they provide to get paid. Some doctors may not do this. I know one doctor who is fed up with dealing with insurers. Well, I know lots of doctors who feel that way, but this doctor refuses to bill any third party payer (insurer) other than Medicare. So you would not be covered in your PFFS if you went to this provider.
In contrast, by law a PPO must pay a Medicare doctor the full amount they are allowed to bill, even if they are non-participating (see Q2, p. 36 here). And if the doctor refuses to bill the insurer, no problem. You pay up front and the insurer is required to reimburse you (less any required shared costs, i.e. copay and/or coinsurance). With a PPO you are covered for services by any Medicare doctor in the US. Though at a higher cost (e.g. copays) than with a PFFS. Just as Medicare Supplement Plans F & G cost more than lesser coverage from other plans.
Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
Sort of. The amount that you're paying for your plan, all in, is increasing from $185 ($185 Part B + $0 H8145 plan) to $233.50 ($206.50 Part B + $27 H8145). That's a 26% increase, still quite large but not incalculable (I just calculated it)
It's fair to consider Part B premiums as part of the insurance cost. First, because one's actually paying that. Second, because some plans like H5216-345 reduce the amount you pay for Part B. This is a $0 premium plan (both 2025 and 2026). It reduced the Part B premiums from $80 ($185 - $105 credit) in 2025 to $76.50 ($206.50 - $130) in 2026. That's a 4.4% reduction.
The extra $27 premium is for the drug portion of the PFFS plan (see Medicare.gov).
That drug plan increase seems to be more the exception than the rule:
According to CMS, Medicare Advantage drug plan premiums for 2026 are holding steady at considerably lower levels than stand-alone drug plans, on average, with many plans charging zero premium for drug coverage in 2026, as in previous years.
A comprehensive KFF analysis will follow in the future, but it appears that substantial premium increases for PDPs across the board didn’t materialize, even as the Trump administration scaled back the level of support for additional PDP premium subsidies through the temporary Part D premium stabilization demonstration established by the Biden administration in 2024. ...
In fact, for all but one of the 10 PDPs that were offered nationwide in 2025 and that will continue to be offered on a national or near-national basis in 2026, Medicare Part D enrollees in a number of states will see lower monthly premiums in 2026 than in 2025. This is consistent with CMS’s projection that the average monthly PDP premium will decrease by a few dollars in 2026.
Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
Then there are the lumber prices you were quoting a few years ago. In May 2018 (7½ years ago), lumber was at $600. It's now at ... $600. And forget about Covid, when everyone was sheltering in place and renovating. Prices topped out above $1600.
I sound like a broken record here, but people tend to notice bad financial data (higher prices, losses in the market) more than the notice good financial data, like rising markets. That's why we have metrics like Sortino ratio and ulcer index. And why understanding behavioral finance is important to be aware of when investing.
@msf I hear you. But I tend to keep thinking about young people starting out and forming a family while facing job disruptions and high housing costs. Also, from what I can see the direction of the country safety net is headed, they will need to have wages that cover private pay, unsubsidized, of things like healthcare, food and retirement. This means wages that grow from jobs that are secure. What counts is prospering over time. Stagnation won't get them there.
Comments
We also shop at Trader Joe and Aldi, and much prefer Aldi for their produce. These stores are quite different. Trader Joe is more resemble Whole Foods with lots specialty and expensive items. Aldi is very competitive to regular grocery stores. The chain is growing fast on the west coast.
Had some dead, fried chicken at Max's Filipino Restaurant yesterday. Crispy skin, perfect-a-mundo.
Pancit Canton was excellent, too.
https://www.maxsrestaurantna.com/locations
We have various types of ethnic markets around us for quality vegetables at reasonable prices. The Korean and Halal markets are good places to buy meat.
The only time I go to an old mainline market is to get the Kroger knock-off versions of triscuits and oyster crackers.
Geez, I've been preaching the joys of ShadowStats for some 20 odd years. teehehe
In addition to the price increase due to tariffs and labor shortages, there is a LOT of piggy-back price markups taking place across the spectrum. Recall the increases that took place during Covid totally unrelated. Anyone check their home-owners insurance lately? How about your utility bills? Shrink-flation was mentioned and note Coca-Cola is coming out with a small version. [side bets on how long before it becomes their primary sale].
I jokingly mentioned Shadowstats but I haven't trusted the gov'ts CPI numbers in decades. I grant that their calculations have been accurate, but the problem lies in what they count and how much weight things receive. It's designed to mask inflation and we all know it. Hedonic adjustments are sweet. If the product is new and improved, the additional costs don't count. What if you can no longer buy the old and unimproved version? Oh, and Greenspan equated burger with steak.
Now there is another problem. With the current administration, even when the BLS gets back to work, the calculations can no longer be trusted.
So, plain and simple, we're on our own. As the Governor used to say a long time ago, 'keep your asses low and your flak jackets close'.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/heres-much-more-expensive-groceries-212033110.html
A few examples:
The price of a bag of coffee at TheEggWatch's local store was previously $7.99. Now, it's $9.99 a bag.
On Jan. 19, 2025, TheEggWatch bought a pack of bacon for $7.49. Now, it's on sale for $8.99.
Lean ground beef was $5.69 per pound in January. Now, it's $7.49 per pound.
I do believe Joe was too free in throwing around covid-era money, to rescue the economy. It resulted in big-time inflation, which Yellen, Powell and the others claimed for too long, was "transitory." They got it wrong. I see no one here denying that. Go fight your own straw man where we're not bothered by it.
Jump right in to 1:50 of this clip, if you care to taste a bit of Reality. And I never thought I'd be agreeing with Ronny Ray-guns about anything, but there it is:
I gather you will need to pick up a job. With your great hindsight, how about running a few funds for a big mutual fund company? If that does not meet your fancy, trade up to some faster Yugo’s.
pretending that the gop voters cared\understood any subtle things like inflation and the Cantillion effect is old 2024 news.
i had hopes regarding the more qualitative concept of affordability, with daily receipts and monthly payments, but even this seems beyond their ken.
Here’s my experience:
Over the past several weeks, I’ve been shopping at Walmart and Aldi every week — and I haven’t seen any issues. I also visited Kroger, Publix, and Trader Joe’s, and noticed the same.
I’ve been to Home Depot and Lowe’s as well, with similar results. Our old range lasted 25 years, and when it finally broke, we had a new one delivered within two days.
I stopped by Target once — no problems there either.
I even helped a friend buy a Toyota, and we found plenty of inventory.
The only place I saw empty shelves was at a dollar store — and yes, they were mostly cheap Chinese items.
Keep trying to spin and scare the kids—anything to bring the current admin down.
Since 01/2025
Shiller house price are down 1%
New auto prices are up about 0.5%.
Oil, a major component of many items, is down about 25%
===============
Healthcare in America will never be cheap. It’s a massive for-profit industry for many providers, while politicians are heavily influenced by special interests.
The so-called Affordable Care Act — or as I call it, the Unaffordable Care Act (UCA) — made coverage far more expensive for those who buy directly through the marketplace.
Before the ACA, I could find solid insurance for around $400 a month with a $3,000 deductible for both of us. Two years later, both numbers had doubled — that’s one of the reasons I worked an extra year.
Fortunately, I was able to transition to Medicare over three years ago. This year, my wife paid $1,200 per month with an $8,000 deductible under the UCA until she became eligible for Medicare.
Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S. for the same price, with specialist visits at just $20.
It also includes dental coverage (up to $4,000, with no deductible), free gym access, and more.
Scary because the rest of the blind loyalists probably do much the same - even if they cannot afford to (financially).
"Healthcare in America will never be cheap." Brilliant. Now let's make it even MORE unaffordable.
Wait until companies stop absorbing it and push prices even higher.
Keep those examples coming!
Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.
And with rates coming down, it could end up even worse. And this impact will be on top of Covid era inflation.
Condo prices in the markets on this list have dropped by 12% to 28% from their respective peaks in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024. Each city has its own chart below, with some additional data. Prices through September, seasonally adjusted.
The 23 bigger cities where condo prices fell 12% to 28% from their peaks:
Oakland, CA: -28% (2022)
Cape Coral, FL: -28% (2024)
Austin, TX: -25% (2022)
St. Petersburg, FL: -25% (2022)
San Francisco, CA: -16% (2022)
Jacksonville, FL: -16% (2022)
Tampa, FL: -16% (2022)
Denver, CO: -15% (2022)
Detroit, MI: -15% (2021)
Arlington, TX: -15% (2024)
$100 now equals $90.57 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 2%.
$100 now equals $91.51 of purchasing power 3 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
$100 now equals $86.26 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3%.
$100 now equals $84.20 of purchasing power 5 years ago with an average inflation rate of 3.5%.
Compound inflation calculator if anyone wants to play around with numbers.
Sorry - Those (inflation) numbers do not comport with my own experience. It feels greater than what the BLS has published. Some time ago I cited a replacement window identical to one purchased 7 or 8 years earlier. The price had jumped from $400 to over $700 while the delivery time had increased from 3 days to 6 weeks. Your experience may differ.
Re FD’s remarks - From what I’ve read, housing prices have come down somewhat over the past year in parts of the country. One of the few areas that have. But mortgage rates are still much higher than just 3 or 4 years ago. So it’s a mixed bag.
Who will buy these fantastic condos at these fantastic “low” prices?
”The median sale price for homes in Oakland, CA over the last 12 months is $850,000, down 3% from the median home sale price over the previous 12 months.” Source
Well, I did say “feels like.”
The linked chart is interactive, allowing you to zoom in on the price level in 2018 (window #1 / $400) and in 2025 (window #2 / $700+). Sure looks to me like about a 10% annual increase in construction materials over that 7 year time frame.
Producer Price Index by Industry: Building Material and Supplies Dealers
Agree lumber prices were elevated during covid for many reasons (mostly consumers deferring travel and entertainment and investing in their homes). A wild ride.
What I suspect is that the CPI hides a lot of the inflation in basic goods by factoring in “higher quality” for things like TVs, computers, automobiles, etc. Since you’re getting “more bang for the buck” with those high tech items it brings down the CPI. Old joke: “Have you ever tried munching on a computer chip?”
I'm going off on a tangent here, but private fee for service (PFFS) plans, as this Humana H8145-069 plan is, do not give you access to all (Medicare) doctors in the US. PFFS sounds like PPO only better (same rates in and out of network), but there's a diffence.
With A PFFS plan, an out-of-network Medicare doctor must agree to be bound by the network terms of the plan or the insurer will not pay. Some Medicare doctors are "non-participating", meaning that they charge up to 15% more than the Medicare rates. (This is what Medicare calls an "excess charge", and the only Medigap plans that cover this are Plans F and G.) A non-participating provider who declines to waive this excess charge for you won't be covered.
The out-of-network doctor must bill the plan for services they provide to get paid. Some doctors may not do this. I know one doctor who is fed up with dealing with insurers. Well, I know lots of doctors who feel that way, but this doctor refuses to bill any third party payer (insurer) other than Medicare. So you would not be covered in your PFFS if you went to this provider.
In contrast, by law a PPO must pay a Medicare doctor the full amount they are allowed to bill, even if they are non-participating (see Q2, p. 36 here). And if the doctor refuses to bill the insurer, no problem. You pay up front and the insurer is required to reimburse you (less any required shared costs, i.e. copay and/or coinsurance). With a PPO you are covered for services by any Medicare doctor in the US. Though at a higher cost (e.g. copays) than with a PFFS. Just as Medicare Supplement Plans F & G cost more than lesser coverage from other plans.
Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
Sort of. The amount that you're paying for your plan, all in, is increasing from $185 ($185 Part B + $0 H8145 plan) to $233.50 ($206.50 Part B + $27 H8145). That's a 26% increase, still quite large but not incalculable (I just calculated it
It's fair to consider Part B premiums as part of the insurance cost. First, because one's actually paying that. Second, because some plans like H5216-345 reduce the amount you pay for Part B. This is a $0 premium plan (both 2025 and 2026). It reduced the Part B premiums from $80 ($185 - $105 credit) in 2025 to $76.50 ($206.50 - $130) in 2026. That's a 4.4% reduction.
The extra $27 premium is for the drug portion of the PFFS plan (see Medicare.gov).
That drug plan increase seems to be more the exception than the rule: https://www.kff.org/medicare/medicare-part-d-premiums-are-decreasing-for-many-stand-alone-drug-plans-in-a-number-of-states-in-2026/
And stand-alone prices are dropping this year:
Then there are the lumber prices you were quoting a few years ago. In May 2018 (7½ years ago), lumber was at $600. It's now at ... $600. And forget about Covid, when everyone was sheltering in place and renovating. Prices topped out above $1600.
I sound like a broken record here, but people tend to notice bad financial data (higher prices, losses in the market) more than the notice good financial data, like rising markets. That's why we have metrics like Sortino ratio and ulcer index. And why understanding behavioral finance is important to be aware of when investing.