Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
ASHDX looks among the best in the short term junk category and may put some money there depending on the market's reaction to the Fed news this week. It's Non Transaction Fee and no short term redemption fee at Scottrade. Still, where goes oil is…
I never fall in love with a fund manager or for that matter even care who he is. I see far too many who are in funds that have lagged for the past 1, 3, and 5 years (some severely) yet refuse to sell because of their confidence in the fund manager.…
Just skimmed the article but the bottom line seems to be that 35 years (for a 65 year old couple) is now considered to be a conservative estimate. Meaning, more and more are expected to live past 95. I simply don't see that and feel we all overest…
@Junkster- Actually it's Maurice to whom you are I'm sure referring here. But I do agree that Zweig was smart - and also about as "genuine" as they come.
Yes, my apologies to Maurice. Senior moment at 68 or too engrossed in monitoring today's act…
Yes, I see the NYSE has 96% up volume and 4% down volume. On issues it is 90% up and 9% down. I think the late Marty Zweig had a buy signal trigger, when the Advance/Decline volume was a 9-1.
You got it Hank, one of the better buy signals out ther…
RPHYX should be just fine as long as junk bonds don't crater any more than they have. With energy rallying so much today and junk bonds too, the bulls are hoping a bottom is in for both.
Andy, nice find on PMZIX/PMZDX.
Bonds should return principal if held till maturity. Is there any risk that will not be the case for short term HY funds held for 3-5 years?
I am thinking about rising interest rate environment with falling bond prices. Can, for example RSIVX, be …
I've always said RPHYX is not a good cash substitute primarily because it has never been tested during a bear market in junk bonds. I don't care what the fund manger may say, this fund will get hurt in a junk bear market and we have seen how it has…
Dex, It wasn't I that pointed out HYD as more times than I can count I have lambasted junk ETFs on this board. Today is yet another example as HYD was down over 1% while the open end were unchanged to up. Check out NSIOX or the more conservative …
Yes, Dan Sullivan is one of the better ones out there. And as you mentioned, he has a real money account. Must be a big difference between a timer and a trader (and there is) as I could never imagine sitting through the drawdown Mr Sullivan must h…
Dex, It wasn't I that pointed out HYD as more times than I can count I have lambasted junk ETFs on this board. Today is yet another example as HYD was down over 1% while the open end were unchanged to up. Check out NSIOX or the more conservative …
Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
Many Vanguard ETFs had trading suspended during the first hour this morning. All had …
"In that case: Last one out please turn off the lights."
Oh, absolutely. If there's another 2008, then - as I've noted before, CNBC will be hosted by tumbleweeds. You will absolutely not get the average investor back - for years.
The average inves…
Here is another take on QLACs: http://andrewtobias.com/column/qlacs/
In reality annuities are a poor investment. Even more so in this low interest rate environment. The article above has some errors but makes two good points. An annuity can give …
I wonder if this dramatic open will be called a flash crash. In the past there was at least one occasion where the trades were cancelled after the fact.
Sure seems like a flash crash to me similar to May 2011. I had trouble logging on to my Scott…
Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
I would think the one thing that could cause the greatest decline in the market is not China but more pain in the energy markets. More pain would be greater than expected bankruptcies and then a rout in the junk market. As much as we have heard ab…
Up today and up for the week and way ahead of its category which was a loser. Never been more frustrated since I am unable to purchase it here in KY. Then again am even more frustrated in that I have a small position in another bank loan fund I wou…
You have options with this product as with any annuity, But the highest monthly payout is no death rider and no inflation rider just the plain vanilla QLAC. And you are paid for your lifetime. Should I pass before I collect it really won't matte…
Not sure if the below was linked but answers a lot of questions on the three firms that offers QLACs through Fidelity and more. I also like the annuity calculator below. Looks like maximum age is 82 to purchase one. Personally, would take benefits…
Below is a more informative video on this new product. New York Life will be jumping into the QLAC fray next year. When I turn 70 in 2017 that is where I will be putting my $125,000. I will begin taking my benefits at age 80 - God willing. I hav…
From the below it appears Mr Grantham has had a bearish bent on U.S. stocks for a long time. Since 1994 if the first link is to be believed. On that first link scroll all the way to the bottom for some of his comments and predictions. I am sorry …
As you say "imperfectly" as WARAX is a stinker. Correct me if I am wrong but GBMFX is GMO's flagship fund. Not exactly a wealth creation machine, especially the past five years where it has underpeformed in its category.
http://www.morningstar.co…
GMO has had a terrible forecasting record since 2009 (and most likely before) They always have a bearish bent. Grantham is always talking up timber. Here's a 40+ year chart for lumber. Rule # xx for creating wealth, stay as far away from commod…
Dex, in 2008 the average open end junk muni fund lost 25.27%. HYD wasn't around then but since it underforms the open end funds the loss would have been more. The safe haven is Treasuries and to a lesser extent high grade munis. Still, as you said…
How about this for a scenario? Everyone is talking about how a handful of stocks are holding up the averages and this being the case, the bear is about to pounce. If it did, though, it'd be the most highly advertised bear in (my own admittedly fog…
There doesn't seem to be much panic here in light of a very ugly market. Meanwhile, junk bonds (sometimes a precursor to the equity markets) have been down, down, and down since 5/31. I can't predict any better than the man in the moon. But a real…
Dex - Where'd all that negative thinking ever get you?
Positive I'm making money in HYD.
Junk munis looking good again that's for sure. Last night decided to buy some MMIIX today but in hindsight should have bought yesterday.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spflx&insttype=&freq=&show=
Dex, the chart from the link above is a better visual of its trend persistency in 2015. The two steep declines are from its twice annual divide…
Late last year, we experienced (what was perceived as) a negative credit risk event. More macro and "anticipatory" than anything specific, it did cause junk corporates to pull back (nicely, IMO). What wasn't widely noted was the response of bank loa…
Ted, they only told me it was available in 20 states and would not be available in KY anytime soon, if ever. So did not go any further with the conversation.
QLENX doing rather well, too. +10.5% YTD. SPFLX is interesting, thanks for pointing it out.
Thanks Scott, I just edited my header to say bank loan fund. I don't do "groupthink" funds and thought all AQR funds were in the mode of AQRIX/AQRNX - an u…
Grantham as in Jeremy Grantham? Now there's a perma bear for you. He thought the market was 25% overvalued in October 2009 and the best we could wish for were meager equity returns going forward. Then again, maybe not a true perma bear. Real per…
>>>>Ed's argument: all three asset classes might be subject to sharp, sustained declines over, say, the next decade. As a deep value investor, he's pretty much appalled by what he sees as a fundamental disconnect between corporate prospe…
I see a lot of small cap biotechs down 5% to 10% today including two I held as recently as last week. I am down to only one now (IG) and may well get shaken out of that today. Heavens forbid if we have a negative reaction to tomorrow's employment …
The question should be when to sell funds. Far too much time and effort is wasted on the buying aspects while little to no time is spent on exits. To quote two famous designers of trading and investing systems (loosely and in my own words) " the…
Investments often are either overwhelmed by upward momentum (euphoria) or downward momentum (fear). When this happens in the short term (because investments will often return to the historical mean) I try to pay close attention to price.
Price lea…
