Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
>>>I continue to maintain that most of the "alternative" products avail to retail investors are marketing gimmicks -- marketed to rationalize charging excessive E/Rs, and excessively complex in their strategy -- making them prone to executi…
"We can still do that you know. "
@Junkster: And indeed I try. Weekends at the Russian River place- reading, snoozing, watching the birds and squirrels, eating, drinking, music. No internet, no TV.
Glad to see your have your priorities in the right…
>>>>There are days when I want to be back in the 1950's as a child playing in the forest and nearby creek; and to remain oblivious to the nasty world awaiting me.
Since we're cherry picking data, holding PRPFX since 2000 would have yielded 7.7% CAGR vs 4.3% for SPY. Better sharpe, half the volatility and draw down as well.
Holding GLD since its inception has a slightly better return than SPY with roughly …
Interesting to me is that in the past some posters recommended gold, as a long term investment. They called gold and precious metals a diversifier to one's portfolio. A holding of 5-10% was considered a necessary weight to impact the portfolio to …
Market breath peaked in April 1998 before the major decline began in March 2000. And back then it was just a handful of tech stocks that accounted for the big gains in late 98 to the final top. Not sure when breath peaked this time around. The ne…
From 2013 going forward couldn't begin to list the small cap biotechs stocks I've owned that have gone up 4 fold to 5 fold and even more, yet made next to nothing. Two that are burned in my mind are NPSP bought around 9 taken over at 45 and HZNP bo…
Did you answer this? I missed it.
>> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
That's a 1.5% to 2% decline in my total account balance. So I keep no …
I had been buying HZNP recently on any down day. But yesterday lost that discipline and sold some instead of adding because I became spooked by the weakness in the overall market. That cost me today as it's up almost 5% this morning.
My plan as always is to take what the market gives and can ramp up quickly if necessary. It hasn't been very giving lately so hence the cash. Yes, I know conventional wisdom says you can't time the market and I couldn't agree more. But I look at …
I don't like another large cap biotech GILD one bit. But I said that when it was at $100 and that doesn't exactly make me a bright bulb. Scott has been right on there so far. In 2016 revenue growth and earnings growth at GILD is projected by analy…
I don't have any junk bond funds because of the recent price action. And junk bond funds could well be on their way to only their fourth negative year (1994, 2000, 2008) since the Michael Milken fiasco in 1989/90. I would love to see a mini crash …
If the chart included the the late 70s and the 80s and 90s, it's a totally different picture. One thing I learned as a futures broker in the 70s is never buy commodities, not even as a hedge. I can't tell you how many end of the world fanatics I h…
Obviously if you want to be a doctor, lawyer, or Indian Chief, meaning specialized training is mandatory, a college and advanced degrees are a must. It is also a must for many more mundane occupations where you can't even get in the door without …
Assuming you are talking about an immediate fixed income annuity, the biggest disadvantage are the low record interest rates and hence they aren't paying out much of anything. The way to go is a longevity annuity aka deferred income annuity. Howev…
Back to small cap biotech albeit so far only around 2% to 3% with the rest in cash for the moment. My fave is HZNP and bought that after their offer for DEPO Tuesday where I had a position and sold. Stocks are not my thing. I can pick em but sure …
Many thanks bee. I thought I had read everything on the topic of QLACs but your link was a new one for me. I had never thought of the staggered approach so will have to do some computations on that.
>>>This thread gets me back to a theme I've been posting on (some might say excessively) lately - guaranteed income streams. Whether from immediate annuities, SS, or longevity insurance, they do help to relieve concern about needing to save…
Didn't read the link. But just from personal experience, I can't think of anything that has had a more favorable impact on me financially than not having a mortgage. I realize though that is not feasible for many, especially younger folks.
>>>High-Yield Bond Funds: Don’t make the mistake of focusing on interest rates and missing a potentially bigger problem for bond fund prices — credit risk. High-yield bond funds are providing great yields for investors in a low-yield enviro…
I have given annuities a lot of thought recently in my retirement planning. The only that ones that make half way sense are deferred annuities. And there especially the ones where the recent Treasury rule allows you to exempt up to $125,000 in yo…
I tried this calculator for N=10 (payments to age 95) and came up with 7.61% rate.
With N = 5 (payments to age 90), the return is 4.49%.
Thanks - neither of those returns seem very interesting.
Many thanks msf for your usual exhaustive and ex…
I have always been against annuities. The first link explains why you should never buy an annuity. But the second link about the new rule where you can purchase up to $125,000 of a deferred annuity with IRA money that won't go against your RMD sou…
@msf- Well, whatever you do, you are one hell of a great asset to the rest of us here at MFO, and I thank you for that!
+1 I think he is in a class of his own here.
I have always believed those who brag are about to meet their comeuppance in some shape or form. Hopefully in my case it won't be a stroke or heart attack soon but.....
I weigh the same as I did when I graduated high school in 1965. But at least I …
I am seriously thinking about buying a second home in the mountains of western NC. I would think at some point Baby Boomers like myself are going to unleash that which they have wrought over a lifetime of saving. Agree with bee that will be stimul…
Gundlach was predicting that in 2015 the 10 year could potentially take out its modern day era low of 1.38%. It got down to around 1.64% and then the big bad bear began as we are now at 2.40%. This week was the largest weekly rise in yields since …
This year or next, it will probably be a non event when the FED does raise. Or it could be bullish as the most anticipated market event in recent history is out of the way. Isn't it three steps and a tumble anyway? I would be more concerned with t…
Frank, one of my junk hybrid funds (just exchanged into yesterday) was actually up today - RIMOX. I may have to increase there. The rest of the open end held remarkably well but sometimes there is a one day lag effect. So we shall see tomorrow.
Frank, at least for me I was never fond of hedging because you have two decisions instead of one, i.e. when to lift the hedge. The junk funds have been flat but on a total return basis made all time highs as recently as Friday. After the close tod…
A thousand pardons. I should have known that. Blame it on lack of coffee or lack of brain cells. I choose both.
I knew you knew that. Just fooling with you.
Thanks David for the additional comments. The talk of a broken market has been a topic for a while now. Gundlach mentioned it on the new WSW. I still felt the June commentary was far more bearish in nature than the previous installments. If anything…
>> The markets were already in established downtrends before that time.
Not so much, at least 1987 not at all. Look at SP500 and FCNTX. For 7y ago, yes, this week right now was the very week of turn. Not much of a trend prior, spring 08.
I…
