I don't like small-caps' typical volatility anymore. Just very unsatisfying. I used to hold Mairs & Power Small cap. MSCFX and TRP small cap PRDSX. Still hold just enough of PRIDX smid cap foreign so that TRP won't tell me to add more, because of required minimums. Ya, I suppose it's a bargain now in relative terms, but I don't have the patience. I'm looking more and more for dividend payers. This Market is a stinker, these days, compared to the juiced-up version we had enjoyed only very recently. I want the benefit of some real compensation now, in retirement, until things turn around for the better. Never have put money into a MLP before, but I'm eyeing one at the moment.

I agree with Buffett that there are some “pockets” of value here and there being overlooked by the performance chasing herd. The big indexes (like the S&P) may well be in bubble territory. And, Bill Fleckenstein thinks that target date funds, used as the default option in many workplace retirement plans, are also contributing to a bubble in some market areas - basically the major indexes.
Identifying those pockets of value isn’t easy. Way beyond my humble capabilities. I was led to Allegheny (Y) by an excellent in-depth Barron’s piece. Less than a month after I bought it, Buffet made an offer and it jumped 25% overnight. I sold. I haven’t yet replicated that stroke of good luck - and not for lack of trying.
The Barron’s piece delved into a lot of things I’m not qualified to address, like price-to-book, p/e, debt level, return on investment, dividend history, corporate leadership and diversification into market segments. Allegheny’s interest in a casket maker struck me as a uniquely “growthy” industry. :)
I’m inclined to say this might be a good time to lighten up on funds and seek out opportunities in individual stocks. But, admittedly, that route is much riskier.

Fascinating interview on Bloomberg today. Not sure I agree with him, but he certainly has strong opinions and not afraid to voice them.
- The Fed “better not stop at 3%” (with the discount rate). If they don’t soon raise it to 5% or higher “they’re not doing their job”.
- The surreptitious release of the SC draft opinion contributes to the polarization and disfunction of our politics. He fears the country is becoming “ungovernable”.
- He sees equities as way overvalued.
- Inflation is here to stay.
- Investors are ignoring the negative implications of the war in Europe.
- He’s not predicting “stagflation.” However, it it developed it would result in “nothing working” in terms of investments.
- He’s been moving more and more into assets that provide inflation protection. Likes countries rich in natural resources.
- The individual investor - even those in retirement - “still loves equities”.
- Intermediate term bonds may offer better value than the S&P.
- The 60/40 (stocks/bonds) portfolio is outdated / unpopular today. Has been largely replaced by the 70/30 and “even the 80/20” by most investors.
- He recently spoke to Howard Marks. Marks agrees that with careful selection, there is some value in HY.

No deployment of dry powder yet. First deployment will be to AA funds mid/end of summer, then into riskier stuff, depending on war in Ukarine. In general I use a 20% downturn as a buy switch in transitional periods such as these. I am a good 10-15 years from retirement and quite comfortable being 30% cash / stable value in my company 401k.

Early in retirement, the last thing I need is holding a large equity allocation in a prolonged bear market, so I am at my personal low end of stock allocations. I am marginally positive YTD overall, with overweighs in Energy and commodities and underweight FAANG.
I do not think raising the Federal Funds rate will do much to alleviate inflation due to supply chain disruptions /war, and it seems harder and harder for the FED to stop inflation without a recession. Stagnation seems more and more likely until 2024 at least
Barrons has a nice summary of the difficulty of a "Soft lading"
https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-inflation-fed-soft-landing-51651183401?mod=past_editions
Bond yields, while better, are still lowespecially relative to inflation, and even good dividend stocks my be in for a 15 to 20% drop
I don't see much to change these trends until the war is over and China's covid problem is resolved. The added expenses to rebuild Ukraine and restore the damage to it's agricultural infrastructure will keep food and basic materials prices high for a long time, even if there is a recession.
Having said that, I nibbled on AMZN and JPM yesterday as both are way down and JPM pays 3.35%, but I think adding to DBA or GCC or XLE makes the most sense now, along with PSQ and SH if you are OK with inverse ETFs
I am also looking at a ladder of tax free state specific munis. While they don't pay much they are marginally better than MM rates and if interest rates continue to rise you can have cash to buy bonds at better prices

Barron's has a recent article about Fidelity's desire to include Bitcoin in their 401(k) plans.
Many challenges lie ahead...
"Bitcoin’s suitability as a 401(k) investment has prompted warnings from the Labor Department, which enforces federal rules for the plans. In March, the DOL cautioned employers against crypto, warning that they 'should expect to be questioned about how they can square their actions with their duties of prudence and loyalty.'”
"Investor-protection groups are lining up against the idea, too.
More than a dozen supported the DOL’s warning in a letter to the agency this past week.
The discussions around cryptos 'overshadow the facts that make them extremely questionable for retirement accounts,' said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, an investor-advocacy group that signed the letter."

DOL will talk with Fido about ERISA,
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/04/29/us-labor-department-has-grave-concerns-about-fidelitys-plan-for-bitcoin-in-401k-retirement-plans-wall-street-journal-reports/

So, will the simple inclusion of bitcoin in retirement accounts serve as the legitimizer of bitcoin itself? Will Fidelity finally be the one to explain the external factors that determine the bitcoin's price and volatility? Is bitcoin contrarian? Hey guys, I just flashed on a question. What do forex traders think of bitcoin?

While I'm interested in whether they will actually be able to pull this off without government intervention, I have a better suggestion for FIDO customers interested in placing some of their retirement in Bitcoin.
Instead of paying a .70 - 1% fee to Fidelity for Bitcoin purchases, there's a much less expensive path already available in Fidelity. Coincidentally, @Old_Joe mentions the way without naming the company above. " Fidelity's first customer "already signed up one employer" ...is the better path.
Just purchase some MSTR stock (at the right time) and you'll have the Bitcoin exposure you want with much lower fees. MSTR is the "Bitcoin Spot ETF" that is already available to all.
You are not able to auto-contribute up to 20% to MSTR unless it's in your 401k plan. This is what is so curious about Fidelity's first 401K Bitcoin customer Microstrategy. Interesting.

The following is an excerpt from ☞ a current NPR article:

NEW YORK — More workers may soon be able to stake some of their 401(k) retirement savings to bitcoin, as cryptocurrencies crack even deeper into the mainstream.
Retirement giant Fidelity said Tuesday that it's launched a way for workers to put some of their 401(k) savings and contributions directly in bitcoin, potentially up to 20%, all from the account's main menu of investment options. Fidelity said it's the first in the industry to allow such investments without having to go through a separate brokerage window, and it's already signed up one employer that will add the offering to its plan later this year.

FD1000
+1
Is the Schmeissing just getting started?
Inquiring minds want to know...

I have a special style. You can see it (here). Since 2013, I have been practicing sell to cash at certain conditions (proprietary). Since retirement in 2018, my selling rules are tighter, I never lost more than 1% from any last top. Going to cash depends on big picture analysis + current conditions and why it's different from others. I missed all the big meltdown of Q4/2018, 03/2020 and YTD. I can be wrong, it happened twice since 2013, I was back within 3-4 days.
Remember, it's more important to miss the worse days than the best(link).
I posted several ideas YTD on other sites:
1) Best wide range category so far in 2022 is VALUE(VTV), posted in mid-January. See (chart). In my world, it means most of the stocks would be in value.
2) I'm in cash for weeks because high risk conditions were met. It's the longest I have been in cash since 2013. Based on that, I only allowed to make short-term (hours to 2-3 days) trades.

“The nation’s largest pension fund is planning to vote for a proposal that would unseat Warren Buffett as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. The $470 billion California Public Employees’Retirement System, known as Calpers, said in a regulatory filing that it would support a proposal by the National Legal and Policy Center that Berkshire Hathaway’s board chair be independent. That would disqualify Mr. Buffett, who is also the company’s chief executive, from holding both positions. Having the same person hold both roles weakens corporate governance, the National Legal and Policy Center said in the shareholder measure published ahead of Berkshire’s April 30 shareholder meeting.
“Berkshire Hathaway’s board responded by saying it opposes the measure and believes Mr. Buffett should continue to fill both roles. After he departs, a board member who isn’t part of management should become chair, the board said. A representative from Berkshire wasn’t immediately available for comment. The measure likely faces long odds. Mr. Buffett alone has a 32% voting interest in Berkshire. Calpers supports re-electing Mr. Buffett to the Berkshire board. Companies are increasingly deciding not to have their chief executives serve as chair, according to consulting firm Spencer Stuart. As of last year, 59% of companies in the S&P 500 had split the chair and chief executive roles.”
From: The Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2022

There has to be an escape clause for people putting too much money into HSAs. (Use it or lose it as with FSAs would have made HSAs toxic.) This was always a feature - and always one that came with taxes. Non-medical withdrawals were never triple tax free. The only change being made here is whether a withdrawal penalty is added.
It's not just Congress saying that IRAs were intended for retirement (though Congress did make that clear in its original legislation). It is the Supreme Court saying the same thing as well, in ruling that inherited IRAs are not retirement accounts deserving of bankruptcy protection.
In any case, changes involving stretch IRAs did not make formerly tax-free money taxable. They did affect the timing and arguably size of the tax - a quantitative, not qualitative change. Likewise adding a penalty to non-medical withdrawals from HSAs would not make formerly tax-free money taxable since the non-medical withdrawals were never tax-free.

I know people who would be very upset at Disallowed #2 as they also considered HSA as a supplemental IRA. Some who were sitting on the fence on the HSA were swayed by the allowed nonmedical use of funds after 65. If this proposal becomes serious, there may be some grandfathering exceptions. Or, the Congress may say that allowed nonmedical use after 65 was a defect or loophole in the HSA that had nothing to with the health intent. Afterall, the Congress took away the stretch-IRA for heirs by just saying that it didn't have much to do with the retirement intent of the IRA.

I think your Fidelity suggestion is a great one @yogibearbull. I've always used the TRP retirement fund(s) that correspond to the equity % I hold in my portfolio. But the drawback to the TRP funds is they adjust equity exposure over time. I may switch my allegiance from the TRP funds to the Fidelity asset manager funds you listed.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000174177322001131/c497.htm
497 1 c497.htm
T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund
Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated March 1, 2022, as supplemented
Effective Monday, May 9, 2022, the T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe Fund will close to new investors. Accordingly, the summary and statutory prospectus are supplemented as follows:
In the Summary Prospectus and Section 1 of the Prospectus, the disclosure under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” is supplemented as follows:
Effective at the close of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, May 9, 2022, the fund will close to new investors and new accounts, subject to certain exceptions. Investors who already hold shares of the fund at the close of business on Monday, May 9, 2022, may continue to purchase additional shares. -End of Supplement Text----
Section 2 of the Prospectus is supplemented as follows:
CLOSED TO NEW INVESTORS
The fund is currently closed to new accounts other than investors whose accounts meet any of the following criteria:
· Participants in an employer-sponsored retirement plan where the fund already serves as an investment option;
· Direct rollovers from an employer-sponsored retirement plan to a new T. Rowe Price IRA;
· Accounts held directly with T. Rowe Price that qualify through participation in certain T. Rowe Price programs;
· T. Rowe Price multi-asset products (such as funds-of-funds);
· Discretionary accounts managed by T. Rowe Price or one of its affiliates; or
· Wrap, asset allocation, and other advisory programs, if permitted by T. Rowe Price.
Shareholders with existing accounts may make additional investments and reinvest dividends and capital gains so long as they own shares of the fund in their account. Shareholders who own the fund through an intermediary should check with the financial intermediary to confirm eligibility to continue purchasing shares of the fund.
The fund’s closed status does not restrict existing shareholders from redeeming shares of the fund. However, any shareholders who redeem all fund shares in their account would generally not be permitted to re-establish the account and purchase shares unless they meet one of the above criteria. Transferring ownership to another party or changing an account registration may restrict the ability to purchase additional shares. In addition, the fund’s closed status does not restrict an existing investor’s ability to convert from one share class of the fund to another, provided the shareholder meets the eligibility criteria for the other share class.
The fund reserves the right, when T. Rowe Price determines that it is not adverse to the fund’s interests, to permit certain investors to open new accounts in the fund, to impose further restrictions, or to close the fund to any additional investments, all without prior notice.
The date of this supplement is April 18, 2022.
F131-042 4/18/22

@yogibearbull :: How do "generous inflation adjustments" get paid ? Why I'm asking. Vanguard will be rolling their 2015 TRF in the Retirement Fund. I thought about selling or exchanging into another fund , but don't want to lose the "adjustment".
This will be done in July so have some time to figure out what to do. This money is in taxable account.
Thanks for your time, Derf
PS Off the topic,
sorry about that.

https://smartasset.com/investing/charles-schwab-says-now-is-the-time-to-add-this-asset-to-your-retirement-portfolio
Why Will Bonds Recover Now?
"There are a couple indications that Schwab analysts say point to a buying opportunity.
The bond yield curve jumped and has maintained a high level, which means that the market is already discounting a fast pace of Fed rate hikes. Even though the Fed has only raised interest rates once thus far, the yield curve signals a lot of future rate hikes being priced in–so many, in fact, that the number of hikes would have to extend into 2024 to make sense.
Another indicator is the real level of inflation affecting the economy. Due to rising commodity prices, Schwab analysts expect inflation to remain high through the end of the year, when levels should ease again in response to changed Federal Reserve policy. The economy already appears to be cooling, as rising interest rates moderate housing demand and capital goods expenditures."
Anybody else buying this argument?

I will tell you for sure @catch22, if I was handed a 1/2 million dollars at 70 years old to supplement my retirement days, I personally would not seek financial opinions from a posting board. I would go straight to a financial advisor.
Obviously there are a few, if not more than a few posters here that are more than capable of giving good fund-investment advice (yes-also known as opinions). That group very much includes yourself. But none can set up an individualized plan for this couple for the rest of their lives. None can tell them how to set up their investments which seems to include both taxable and non-taxable savings, real estate, a business, SS and maybe more. None of us understands their goals and time horizon, how to safely spend down, where to pull income and in what investment order to divest, how to reduce their tax exposure, ect, ect, ect...

"not random opinions from a posting board."

Random opinions can be good advice or bad advice. Time will tell which is which.

I don’t think we’ll see anything near 10% Y/Y inflation (CPI) this year or next. As for the “general public” I have little faith in their understanding of money, markets, financial planning. We’ve been dumbed down and polarized as a society compared to the 70s..
However, I don’t recall that inflation was much of a “hot button” issue 70s thru 80s. ISTM most took it in stride along with all the other pieces of the economic puzzle. Among those: jobs, wages, perks (like retirement benefits and health insurance), the stock market, quality of public services and infrastructure and educational opportunities. So it was an issue. But not a “hot button” one.
PS - Along with the inflation of the 70s & 80s there were several U.S. manned lunar landings and other advancements in space - something to be really proud of as a nation. And it was perhaps the genesis period for what later became the technological revolution. Loved my first computer - a Vic 20 (early 80s).