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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Just noticing such tremendous VOLATILITY in the Markets, "that is all."
    Particularly now we can get 5% risk free.
    I think using your personal rate of inflation helps to eliminate some of the angst about real vs nominal interest rates.
    If you don't buy a car, and you own your house, health care, taxes and food and energy inflation are the biggest problem that can't be controlled with lifestyle changes for retirees.
    It helps a lot to live in a state (MA) where health care institutions and MDs have a hard time refusing to take Medicare. It is not illegal but there are so many retirees on the Cape no physician or hospital could survive refusing Medicare, except maybe plastic surgeons.
    Of course we pay for it in other ways, ie taxes. 5% state income tax, and our real estate taxes have increased 10% YOY
  • ETNs in 2023
    Surprisingly, there hasn’t been much discussion or analysis of ETNs (Exchange Traded Notes) in the aftermath of Credit Suisse disaster.
    The ETNs are DEBT obligations of the ISSUER/sponsor. So, the health of the issuer is critical for the ETN holders. Yet, in all of the discussions of Credit Suisse issues, its ETN exposure wasn’t even mentioned. This even as in the UBS takeover/rescue of Credit Suisse, almost $17 billion of AT1/CoCo debt was extinguished by government order (a credit-event was declared) when that was ahead of the common stock (that finally had some residual value). But because it wasn’t an outright bankruptcy, the Credit Suisse ETNs should be OK for now as the debt obligation of Credit Suisse will become the debt obligations of UBS.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/161485/#Comment_161485
    Another risk of ETNs is that their CREATION/REDEMPTION mechanisms may be disrupted by the issuer, or the ETN may be discontinued/liquidated in what may be very UNTIMELY for the ETN holders. Some ETNs are +/- 2x or even +/- 3x that further magnify risks (they escaped the recent ETF reforms to limit LEVERAGE).
    Credit Suisse US ETNs include those for gold, silver, oil, MLP with AUM of under $500 million (tickers for Credit Suisse related stuff are avoided here as those may change). UBS also has ETNs related to equity and HY bonds with AUM under $200 million. It is unclear if UBS will maintain Credit Suisse ETNs.
    No news is good news?
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/985/thread
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    UBS Group AG agreed to take over its longtime rival Credit Suisse Group AG for more than $3 billion, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years by regulators eager to halt a dangerous decline in confidence in the global banking system. The deal between the twin pillars of Swiss finance is the first megamerger of systemically important global banks since the 2008 financial crisis when institutions across the banking landscape were carved up and matched with rivals, often at the behest of regulators.
    The Swiss government said it would provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse. The Swiss National Bank also provided more than $100 billion of liquidity to UBS to help facilitate the deal.
    Swiss authorities were under pressure to make the deal happen before Asian markets opened for the week. The urgency on the part of regulators was prompted by an increasingly dire outlook at Credit Suisse, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. The bank faced as much as $10 billion in customer outflows a day last week, this person said.
    The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month prompted investors globally to scour for weak spots in the financial system. Credit Suisse was already first on many lists of troubled institutions, weakened by years of self-inflicted scandals and trading losses. Swiss officials, along with regulators in the U.S., U.K. and European Union, who all oversee parts of the bank, feared it would become insolvent this week if not dealt with, and they were concerned crumbling confidence could spread to other banks.
    An end to Credit Suisse’s nearly 167-year run marks one of the most significant moments in the banking world since the last financial crisis. It also represents a new global dimension of damage from a banking storm started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month.
    Unlike Silicon Valley Bank, whose business was concentrated in a single geographic area and industry, Credit Suisse is a global player despite recent efforts to reduce its sprawl and curb riskier activities such as lending to hedge funds.
    Credit Suisse had a half-trillion-dollar balance sheet and around 50,000 employees at the end of 2022, including more than 16,000 in Switzerland.
    UBS has around 74,000 employees globally. It has a balance sheet roughly twice as large, at $1.1 trillion in total assets. After swallowing Credit Suisse, UBS’s balance sheet will rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG in asset size.
    The above is excerpted from a current article in The Wall Street Journal, and was edited for brevity.
  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    @crash
    That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?
    Giggle. LOL.
    Back up in Pittsfield and up by the VT line, they're still digging out. Tomorrow's St. Patrick's. Already. Beware the Ides of March. A day late.

  • Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup
    @crash
    That one on Kaalawai Ave looks like just the ticket for me and my wife to escape New England winters. Can you run over and check it out for us?
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
    https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
    Why should we bail out Roku?
    I'm with ya.
  • US Plans Emergency Measures To Backstop Banks after SVB
    This article goes into more detail than I have seen elsewhere about the politics of the 2018 changes in the banking regs that allowed SVB to escape regulation, and how easily the startups etc could have protected their funds. It also implies that SVB prevented them from using multiple other banks ( with InfraSweep).
    https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-13-silicon-valley-bank-bailout-deregulation/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
    We still dont know how many of these accounts were really “ small businesses”. Roku apparently had half a billion dollars on deposit without any protection
    Why should we bail out Roku?
  • DJIA Closes Negative YTD (February 21)
    After a nearly 700 point drop Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in negative territory for 2023 at the close.
    YTD Returns - As of 12:30 PM Wednesday, February 22
    DJIA + 0.22%
    S&P 500 + 4.24%
    NASDAQ + 10.13%
    (Numbers from Bloomberg)
    One fund of recent interest here, ARKK, was ahead by more than 34% YTD going into today’s session. It fell back by more than 6% today. The fact that any fund could move like this one has over the past year might indicate how crazy the investing landscape has gotten. (Numbers from Bloomberg)
    Just me or do geo-politics seem increasingly related to the market problems? Russia / Ukraine for sure. But now, just as China’s economy is emerging from its covid-related pullback, it appears relations with the U.S. are deteriorating. The balloon of course. But a lot more going on from my readings, including what appears to be China becoming more supportive of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If that’s not enough, North Korea fired off a barrage of its new solid fueled ICBMs over the weekend - one landing in the Pacific within sight of Japan. The solids are superior to liquid fueled rockets in that they’re easier to hide and can be launched without any prep on very short notice.
    And you want to invest?
  • What to do?
    @BenWP
    >> I don't know what happened to DEESX, either.
    My post and phrasing were about CAPE and CAPE only.
    As for DSEEX, the M* chart for DSEEX
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/dseex/chart
    shows its growth from end October 2013 to yesterday to be >203%, compared w SP500's 181%. For ytd it's >13% vs <8%.
    That's all. Not making any other claims about it. Don't hold it anymore. 5y and 1y show it lags SP500 somewhat.
  • What to do?
    @davidrmoran: I don't know what happened to DEESX, either. I see from the charts that it reached its nadir on 3/22/2020, having fallen some 7 percentage points more than FXAIX at that point. It never really caught up and I can't devise a chart that shows it outperforming FXAIX. Maybe at exactly 9.5 years, as you say. I wrongly assumed as a shareholder of DSEEX that the bonds would serve as ballast in a down market; it seems the opposite was true and that the "secret bond sauce" appeared to accelerate the move downward. I was a CAPE fan and said so on MFO. I sold, disillusioned. Fortunately, MOAT has proven itself over the long haul. I've traded it, but have never been out. MOTI and SMOT, which adopt a similar "moat" methodology, have been welcome additions in recent months.
  • What to do?
    @MikeM, I don't know and can't easily uncover what the heck happened w CAPE as of 4/22, but I am sure someone here knows. DSEEX has still outperformed FXAIX for 9.5y and also ytd :) --- but not, as others would, or will, instantly point out, for various stints in between. (QQQ likewise looks appealing at 10y and ytd, not quite so much in between.)
    I wasn't being facetious in rhetorically posing the question of where the breadth sweet spot is. Or can reliably be said to be, if we seek investment goals and guidelines. Some of the above apples-oranges (categories) objections are silly, but someone else also mentioned subsets of sets; and so I began to wonder whether everything in SCHD was in SP500 and everything in SP500 in VONE, and everything in VONE in VT.
    For the first it turns out not, but close, so far as I had the energy to parse. Specifically, if you exclude SCHD's last 25 or so holdings (out of ~100), which contribute a minuscule amount to performance, you do see that the remainder appear to be in SP500 (I'm not 100% positive about this, as I got tired searching within the long columns). SCHD applies a seriously delimiting quantified quality criterion. Could there be an SCHD for the VONE universe? (For some periods, of course, that is sort of what VONG and VONV do.)
    Unappreciated (why I also mentioned comparative UI) was the 'leveling' effect the SCHD criteria appear to exert. But maybe UI is arguably overvalued as well. Gustibus.
  • What to do?
    + @larryB
    I can remember not to many years ago, all the comparison and clear winner from that comparison was CAPE over the S&P 500. It was the clear winner - until it wasn't. I'm sure many bought into CAPE high and sold when it faltered. The key is having the conviction to stay with one scheme over another. Value and dividend stocks will have their day, same as growth or tech or using the CAPE methodology. Isn't the S&P500 a collection of all those sub sets?
  • media economy coverage
    @LewisBraham
    At least in Southwestern Connecticut, Electric Boat is desperate to hire "blue collar" technically trained industrial workers to build subs. They subsidize the training programs in high school and guarantee a job if student finishes program. Unlike the Cape, where you can charge $350 to put in a toilet ( personal experience) people can afford to live in SW CT.
    A lot of the CHIPS act and Inflation Reduction Act is directed exactly at building those training programs in Red States
    https://www.brookings.edu/research/with-high-tech-manufacturing-plants-promising-good-jobs-in-ohio-workforce-developers-race-to-get-ready/
    How US compares to the rest of the world in College expenses
    https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/09/why-is-college-so-expensive-in-america/569884/
    "All told, including the contributions of individual families and the government (in the form of student loans, grants, and other assistance), Americans spend about $30,000 per student a year—nearly twice as much as the average developed country. “The U.S. is in a class of its own,” says Andreas Schleicher, the director for education and skills at the OECD, and he does not mean this as a compliment. “Spending per student is exorbitant, and it has virtually no relationship to the value that students could possibly get in exchange.”
    For example, U.S. colleges spend, relative to other countries, a startling amount of money on their nonteaching staff, according to the OECD data."
    That doesn't include the climbing gyms, hot tubs and locally sourced organic food the students demand!
  • BREIT vs SREIT - What Investors Should Know
    @Yogibearbull. Yes.. There’s a lot in the current Barron’s about “illiquid securities” and “private equity,” and “leveraging”. Several panelists in the “Roundtable” sounded alarms. They view the issue as potentially affecting the entire 2023 investment landscape.
    ISTM folks who bought into these instruments should have understood the risks they were undertaking. Outsized gains generally entail additional risk on the part of participants. Hedge funds, for example, typically limit redemptions. One reason they’re not available to small retail investors. Not disagreeing with anything you said.
    Re: My OP - A lot of water has passed under the bridge in the year since I initially posted the story. The Fed has “tossed out” its initial assessment of “transient” inflation and has been aggressively / rapidly pushing up interest rates. Real estate values & REITS have fallen sharply in response. I have to believe all this is somehow related to the higher requests for redemptions and the restrictions (gates) put in place to slow redemptions - from a shrinking pot. It’s hard to discuss one facet of the problem without at least touching on the other.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    "Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one."
    @Junkster- Man, are you ever right. Next we'll find out that he isn't even a US citizen, and is a jail escapee from Bangladesh.
    I read in NYT or WaPo that the opponent in the general knew about it and did raise the issue, but that it never got traction. Probably the constituency thought he was ideal and wouldn't hear anything to the contrary, especially from his opponent.
  • The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
    "Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one."
    @Junkster- Man, are you ever right. Next we'll find out that he isn't even a US citizen, and is a jail escapee from Bangladesh.
  • The Last Eight Years Were the Hottest on Record
    Because it will gradually matter more and more to the investment landscape no matter what the climate science deniers think:
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/10/world/eight-warmest-years-climate-copernicus-intl/index.html
    https://nytimes.com/interactive/2023/climate/earth-hottest-years.html
    It has for instance huge implications for the insurance industry, for the food industry, real estate, the military, textiles, globalization, shipping, tech waste and power consumption, and of course fossil fuels. There will be economic winners and losers here, and of course a number of species will go extinct. Some already have. Given the conversations we’ve been having about asset classes, a forward looking analyst of them will have to take the shifting climate into account, and how it might impact the expected performance of each asset class over the next fifty years instead of just taking how they did in the last fifty as gospel.
  • Debt Ceiling and US Treasury Investments
    I'm going to repeat something here that I posted over in an Off-Topic thread:
    The Democrats are going to be the very least of McCarthy's problems. For a truly somber overview of the legislative minefield laying ahead, I highly recommend pulling up last night's Brooks and Capehart segment of the PBS NewsHour. I was very impressed with the reportorial exchanges between Amna Nawaz, David Brooks, and Jonathan Capehart. A very professional crew indeed. NewsHour has certainly landed on it's feet with the transition from Judy Woodruff.
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    I'm married. So, I never know what the Big Picture actually looks like. It morphs and changes, with items added to it, always along the way. Rather than panic and try to respond with a huge, total makeover, I adjust.
    In order to cover the spouse-person's most recently communicated priority, I'll be starting a TIPS account, while their landscape looks quite positive. Looks like that $$$ will get slud into SCHP.
    Dizzy Dean: "He shoulda slud into 3rd, but he didn't, and he was out by a heifer's step."
    ******************
    Otherwise, I'll keep things rather the same. I'll add to equities if/when things go south. Our investing time-horizon is lengthy. If one or two single-stocks on my watchlist falls far enough to look attractive, I'll start a position there. (FNLC. CMTV. TGH. BBVA. WFG. SCHN.) But growing the TIPS will be at the top of the list, until that puppy rolls over. We do not need to obtain that newest priority-item for several years, at least--- the item that the TIPS account is intended to address. I don't want to be so spread out that I'm actually "de-worse-ifying."
    PRISX will be held at a greatly-reduced level. (DAWG!)
    PRNEX will remain in the portfolio.
    Here's hoping PRFDX will do as well for me in '23 as it did in '22.
    PRWCX and PRCPX and TUHYX round out the mutual fund section of the portfolio.
    Today is the first trading day of 2023. My holdings which bucked the fall in the Indices are the ones I own the least of: PSTL. JRSH. The others, I still think, are worth keeping: BHB. NHYDY. ET.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    @Old_Joe -
    Yup - It’s complicated. My reported comparison was just a rough sample. Results may vary. Knowing how short in supply labor is I have to believe that’s a big factor for airlines / airports because of the intensive use of manual labor for baggage handling, fueling, maintenance, security, etc. Heck, around here if you can walk and chew gum you’ve got a job - labor’s so tight.
    The attached article mentions one factor that escaped me at first. While oil prices have generally fallen in recent months, that may not be the case for aviation fuel. Diesel has rocketed higher. I’d expect the fuel for jets is more closely related to that than to what we buy at the gas pump.
    The article mentions cut-backs in flights. Seems to be the case from some searching I did last night looking for other travel. A distinct shortage of direct flights from what I could see. If it costs the same to go from “Point A” to “Point B” but takes twice as long because of added connections … that in itself is a form of inflation. The product may cost the same, but it is an inferior product.