Not saying that it is the same situation, but providing money to your customers to buy your product and stay competitive, is what caused some huge crashes in telecom (circa 1999).
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/31/nvidia-ceo-huang-denies-hes-unhappy-with-openai.html
"The chipmaker announced in September plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, a deal that would give OpenAI the cash and access it needs to buy advanced chips that are key to maintaining its dominance in an increasingly competitive landscape."

Post-Presser Notes
Rates: Fed fund held at 3.50-3.75%, bank reserves rate at 3.65%, discount rate at 3.75%. Fed fund rate is around the neutral rate (unknown). Risks to Fed's dual mandate (prices & labor) are nearly in balance, so a rate pause this time. Long-tern rates are affected by many other factors. AI is boosting capex & productivity but its effect on labor isn't clear.
US K-economy is solid. Consumer spending is up, but survey-based sentiments aren't good. Quarterly GDP growth may be +4.xx% or +5.yy%, but it's important to look at 12-month GDP changes.
Inflation is above target & sticky at PCE index +2.9%, core +3.0%. There is inflation in goods, some due to one-time effects of tariffs passing through, but services are showing disinflation.
Labor market is stable. It's not growing, but demand is lower too. Labor-force is declining. Unemployment rate of 4.4% is hiding undercurrents.
Housing is weak. Fed is keeping an eye on rallying gold & silver prices, but those aren't Fed's issues.
Global risks are transmitted to US through oil prices & trade & there haven't been noticeable impacts so far.
Fed is both backward-looking (data dependent models) & forward-looking (SEPs, etc), so some external criticisms aren't justified. However, unexpected things do happen - pandemic, trade war, tech revolutions, etc.
Powell had lots of no-comments regarding Fed issues, his personal plans, dollar (that's for Treasury), etc. He did say that independent Fed is a feature of developed economies & that the separation of monetary policy & politics is desirable.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2404/thread

"Buy low, sell high."
I don't invest in individual stocks (except for one stock) but I would heed the following advice if I did.
Bolding was added for emphasis.
"Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock
and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
—Will Rogers

In my limited experience, 10 (about equally weighted) seems to be the minimum number of individual stocks to hold inside a portfolio basket / sleeve if you like sleeping at night. (Might even be higher). But the 6 I held for a couple months proved too volatile. Years past I got away with much higher allocations to particular stocks (occassionally over 5% of portfolio). Escaped without damage. But in hindsight it was foolish.

The buckets just always seemed too complicated to me. Maybe the explanations were too complicated? Everyone's circumstances are unique. If one is single with no obligations, that person may have the time to devote to getting the process just right. I'm fortunate in that my spouse still works. That fact provides an entirely different landscape for our living.
I enjoy doing the research, keeping an eye out for one more new destination for the moolah, whenever the current holdings each get to 8% of the total. One of mine offers an 8% dividend. But it would be foolhardy to go chasing that for its own sake, and I'm not going to overload the portfolio with that one. (Thanks, @Catch22.) At Stocktwits, another fellow was boasting that the size of his stash in ET gives him a quarterly dividend of $5,000.00. I'll never have a portfolio of THAT size. "Prudence is a virtue."
(Starts off low and gets loud:) "Dear Prudence:"

SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 12/24/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +2.6% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 58 (greed)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 58.41% (positive)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 62.80% (positive)
These are contrarian indicators.
Edit/Add. AAII & CNN sentiments are moving in opposite directions. %Above 50-dMA are flat.
INVESTOR CONCERNS: Fed, dollar, debt, budget, tariffs, inflation, jobs, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (199+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down.
Delayed jobs & inflation reports used questionable assumptions. Strong Q3 GDP was from AI capex. ACA premium subsidy is a tax credit & the vote will be in 2026. Regional Fed Bank Presidents were reappointed in December for 5-yr terms.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2359/thread

Thanks for the help yogi
per Duck.AI

Anna Paulson
Inflation Stance: Paulson has been described as more dovish, focusing on the broader economic landscape without advocating for significant rate changes. She acknowledges that inflation remains above the target but has not pushed aggressively for policy shifts.
Beth M. Hammack
Inflation Stance: As a clear hawk, Hammack has expressed a need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to mitigate ongoing inflation issues. She has indicated that current rates are barely restrictive enough to keep inflation in check.
Neel T. Kashkari
Inflation Stance: Kashkari occupies a centrist position, acknowledging both inflation risks and labor market weaknesses. His recent comments reflect a careful approach to balancing rate cuts against the backdrop of ongoing inflation concerns.
Lorie K. Logan
Inflation Stance: Logan leans hawkish, indicating a cautious attitude towards rate cuts without clear evidence that such moves would not worsen inflation. Her comments suggest a preference for stability in rates to manage inflation pressures.

I've always been somewhat underweighted in large caps (futilely fighting the tape). In recent years I've maintained my md cap weighting but reduced small caps, shifting some of their weight to large caps (growing more cautious as one ages). Though still keeping the faith in mid caps.
Interesting statistic - "According to Morningstar's classification, the top 70% of the total U.S. market capitalization is categorized as large-cap, the next 20% is considered mid-cap, and the subsequent 7% falls under the small-cap category. [9.5% in 'extended small cap'] This allocation method offers a dynamic view, considering the overall market landscape."
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/moat-investing/understanding-market-capitalization/
In comparison, the S&P 500 covers 80% of the market. That means that a portion of this index reaches into what M* would call mid cap. Alternatively, the M* large cap boxes contain a smaller portion of the total market ("just" 70%) than one might think.
You can see evidence of this by comparing performance of M* US extended small cap index (iShares M* small cap ISCB), M* US mid cap index (iShares M* mid cap ISMB), and M* US large cap index (using Vanguard Megacap MGC - largest 70% - as proxy for M* index), with SPY.
Portfolio Visualizer comparison
The larger you go, the greater the return over the past ten years, the lower the volatility, the better the risk/reward ratio. Interestingly, the S&P 500, even though it includes some "mid caps" has superior best and worst years (compared with megacaps) and a lower max drawdown. That suggests that there might actually be something to this midcap stuff. At least as a diversifier.

Gravity. Everything that escapes from the Capitol and falls down its steps just smells like garbage. Transparency? Disclosure? Who needs THAT? Excuse me while I go vomit AGAIN.

High levels of margin ,,,, scapegoating the Fed

Right! The Fed scapegoating is blatant. Anyone buying into it is either dim or incapable of non-partisan thought - cultish even. The data has not supported these complaints of "late". Either they are data-driven or they are not. The FED is not supposed to act as Nostradamus to protect anyone from the free market fundamentals, or poor decision making, private or public.
So many say that both jobs are inflation are fine, and so is the stock market, so how do you justify complaints of the Fed being "late". I do feel that inflation, even at 3ish percent is a worry. And that layoffs are high. But, the data does not support an aggressive loosening policy. Unless one is fearful of tariff impact!
And that is self-inflicted.

High levels of margin ,,,, scapegoating the Fed

does anyone use this for allocation\buy\sell decision making?
1,3,5,10yr ? weighted?
annoying m* doesnt provide this simple analytic.

M* published a lengthy 2025 Diversification Landscape report which includes numerous
three-year correlation matrixes along with several matrixes for longer time periods.
Correlations were calculated at the asset/sub-asset class level.
https://www.morningstar.com/lp/diversification-landscape

An interesting line of reasoning from @DrVenture with thoughtful suggestions which have merit.
"I'd like to hear ideas, thoughts, even helpful criticisms. Maybe we can form some more detailed plans/ideas?"
I'm left at this point with many more questions than answers. Some might be disposed to flee to an asset that's tripled in price over the past 3 or 4 years. Not convinced of that escape route either. One thing I'm fairly certain of: There will be more and higher inflation.
PS - Should go without saying that the current game plan is to stimulate the hell out of the economy up until the 2026 mid-terms, now less than a year away. The new Fed chief will quarterback. Look for some giveaways like "tariff rebate checks" to enter the discussion or even come to fruition.
Now back to 1929.

Right!

An interesting line of reasoning from @DrVenture with thoughtful suggestions which have merit.
"I'd like to hear ideas, thoughts, even helpful criticisms. Maybe we can form some more detailed plans/ideas?"
I'm left at this point with many more questions than answers. Some might be disposed to flee to an asset that's tripled in price over the past 3 or 4 years. Not convinced of that escape route either. One thing I'm fairly certain of: There will be more and higher inflation.
PS - Should go without saying that the current game plan is to stimulate the hell out of the economy up until the 2026 mid-terms, now less than a year away. The new Fed chief will quarterback. Look for some giveaways like "tariff rebate checks" to enter the discussion or even come to fruition.
Now back to 1929.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.

When any indicator, including sentiment, reaches never before or rarely before seen levels that is as good a buy signal as you could want. We had two of those last Thursday and Friday. Check this thread where I mentioned them. Also I know several traders who have been very successful using the CNN Fear and Greed index as a buy signal when it reaches single digits and synthesizing that with other indicators. Good traders are into synthesizing a variety of indicators into a coherent trading plan. Trading is not easy and anyone who tells you it is, is a crook, con man, and charlatan.

AAII Bull-Bear Spread
CNN Fear & Greed Index
NYSE %Above 50-dMA
SP500 %Above 50-dMA
The Death-cross, see (link).
Can PE, PE10(CAPE), the economy, recessions, M2, inverted yield, high valuation, interest rates, GDP, inflation, high demand, demographic, Bullish sentiments, EARNINGS, the "experts"...predict STOCKS PERFORMANCE in the next 1-4-8 weeks(many times longer than that)? See (link).
None of the above can predict markets accurately in the next 1-4-16 weeks. Some of these are too early or too late, and some can be off for years too.
There is nothing here about YBB, which is a valuable poster. These are just facts.

From @Sven's link:

Nonetheless, Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft are set to collectively sink around $400 billion on AI this year, mostly for funding data centers. Some of the companies are set to devote about 50% of their current cash flow to data center construction.
Or to put it another way: every iPhone user on earth would have to pay more than $250 to pay for that amount of spending. "That's not going to happen," Kedrosky said.

One reason it won't happen is because Apple is not investing in AI the way the other companies are. https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/apple-s-12-7b-ai-bet-defies-big-tech-s-capex-arms-race.
OTOH, they do have a history of making big announcements to placate politicians. This article at Forbes is paywalled, but I got in for free, you might too.

When I asked Andy Thurai, VP and principal analyst at Constellation Research, what he thought about Apple’s latest announcement to invest all that money in the United States, he said “Apple is known to navigate the political scenes smartly but never follow through with it.” That’s not what you’d expect to hear, especially when you consider the sheer size of this multibillion dollar investment — but Thurai’s answer is steeped in history.
For example, he said, right after former U.S. President Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021, Apple pledged to spend $430 billion and add 20,000 jobs over five years and that never materialized. “They also pledged during Trump’s first term that they would directly contribute to the U.S. economy in the order of $350 billion over the next five years and create 20,000 jobs, which they didn’t follow through either,” Thurai added.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1998, America Online acquired once-dominant internet browser Netscape Communications
for roughly $4.2 billion.

Everybody talks about how this isn't pets.com, but Jain hits the points I have been thinking about:

During the dot-com era, the big infrastructure builders were incumbent telecommunication businesses and global long-haul telcos and equipment names whose regulated local and long-distance franchises generated stable, utility-like cash flows that underwrote the internet and fiber infrastructure capex binge. Today’s infrastructure arms race is driven by the hyperscalers—Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOG, Amazon AMZN, Meta Platforms META, Oracle ORCL—whose reported free cash is increasingly strained by data center and GPU capex, and whose overall earnings quality is propped up by extending server/chip “useful lives” to five to six years, versus the two to three we believe it will be. And they’re treating very large and increasing stock-based compensation as a non-cash item that is being added back to cash flow metrics.

Am I selling tech? No. It's mostly all in my taxable account, and I mostly bought at much lower prices. I'm not buying either.
But wait, there's more. I wasn't aware of the following:

Let’s take GPU pricing. You can call up distributors, which have publicly listed phone numbers, and some are authorized Nvidia distributors. My question: Why is the Nvidia H200, which was released late last year, selling at a 50%-60% discount if there’s such a shortage? On Nvidia’s website, they’re selling at $40,000-plus. NetworkOutlet.com quoted $25,900 just a couple of days ago. If there’s such a shortage, why are there tens of thousands available? Nvidia’s latest and most powerful AI chips, Blackwell, are also offered at a discount.
Next, GPU rentals. Why are they in freefall? We’ve gotten quotes at under $4 per hour for Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rentals. Would you let a $50,000 car rent for $4 if the car only has a three-to-four year life? Meanwhile, [Amazon Web Services] charges around $12-$13 for Blackwell. The bulk of new cloud growth is coming from AI startups. If they’re paying $4 per hour versus $12, then AWS can’t compete. Margins for AWS are already coming under pressure. Revenue growth was OK. Why? Because large tech is also investing in Anthropic, OpenAI, and so on. They go back and buy compute [computational resources] from these guys. Nvidia has invested in over 50 startups, which then go back and buy Nvidia chips.

More at the link.

@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.

I mentioned trends hundreds of times over the years.
Start reading at https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/3344/time-sell?page=10
stayCalm is correct about trends. I don't use most of what these funds do; it's too complicated and time-consuming.
Mine is pretty simple: only long, change funds according to trends, and sell to MM when risk is very high. Black boxes are unreliable. If I use them, it's usually shorter term, and I watch carefully.
Why would I put "all my eggs"?
This is based on my LT view that I can only have 2-5 great ideas at any moment. But I also switch quickly too when the time is right. In the last 2-3 years I traded less often and stayed in bond funds that I think can make 8+%. That also works with good timing. A fund with higher SD loses money quicker. A slower fund let me exit a bit later.
Example: I could have made more in 2024, but I stayed in HOSIX/CLOZ a lot more time.
In my world it was a perfect fund in 2024 (https://schrts.co/gnvFaMZA)
Why EGRIX and then switch to EIGMX? because after a decline, a more volatile fund would make more.

@FD100 - Have you ever mentioned “trend following” by name in any of your previous posts or recommended the best current trends to chase follow for the benefit of members who read you?
There are successful trend following funds. I have 5-6% so invested . Why anyone would put “all their eggs” in that one basket escapes me. Waiting for a Wiley Coyote moment? Trend following (managed futures) funds invest in a diverse mix of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, metals, real estate and more. It’s doubtful that whatever you are doing is comparable to what they do.

I interpreted the trend following comment as switch in and out of mutual funds as a retail investor. Not replication of the investment strategies of the underlying funds. In most cases, that would either be prohibitively expensive or impossible (shorting Coffee futures, Iraqi Dinar anyone?)