Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).

And yet ol' Donnie would absolutely blow a screed-laced gasket if some country 'sanctioned' a judge here for something similar.
This is not 'his' government for 'his' personal use and benefit. Sadly, few in this town are willing to publicly agree with that sentiment.

Excellent post this a.m. from Krugman about the attempted tariff extortion on Brazil to save his authoritarian pal Bolsonaro from trial, conviction, and prison.
Short version: It's delusions of grandeur to an absurd level: Dump doesn't have "the juice" to pull it off. Brazil isn't dependent enough on the U.S. to get them to blow up their legal landscape to please Dump. And it's clearly illegal to use tariffs to interfere in the entirely internal affairs of another nation.
Oh, and if anyone's worried about orange juice prices, it's exempted from the 50%, making the extortion demand even more absurd.
Investment implications: Don't need to worry overly much about investments in Brazil or in OJ, e.g., Tropicana (PepsiCo) and Simply Orange (Coca-Cola).

Thanks! Always a “must watch.” For a year or two (mid-90s) it was broadcast about an hour apart by 2 different PBS stations. I usually watched it twice. I imagine you could learn just as much today about investing from these old shows as when they first aired.
In the mid 90s Lou celebrated 25 years on the air. A real treat with his lovely daughters there with him and 3 really big names in finance. Henry Kaufman was one. John Templeton another. The 3rd escapes me at the moment, as it’s been a while. Possibly Lynch?

I enjoyed this thought-provoking discussion with Larry Swedroe.
"Larry dives deep into the concept of 'self-healing mechanisms' in markets,
explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns.
He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.
The discussion also covers why 'Sell in May and Go Away' is a dangerous myth,
why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means
always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well."
0:00 - Introduction to timeless market lessons
3:00 - Why Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch's advice gets ignored
9:52 - Why valuations can't be used to time markets (PE ratios & CAPE)
16:48 - The importance of patience and discipline in investing
21:00 - Three shocking periods where stocks underperformed T-bills
28:49 - Understanding "self-healing mechanisms" in markets
40:00 - Why even a perfect crystal ball wouldn't help predict markets
44:00 - Debunking the "Sell in May and Go Away" myth
47:24 - Why last year's winners often become this year's losers
50:39 - Active management's persistent underperformance
55:28 - Why proper diversification means something always looks "wrong"
1:03:00 - The postage stamp analogy: Sticking to your investment plan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdQWw6amBg8&list=PLOPDD0ChIJDhoLhgfYwTpLn116h-rVM1x&index=32

During the Scotland escape, Dump rails against the use of windmills ahead of the EU meetings.
He is an embarrassment.
I would not let this guy handle any kind of negotiations. Tariff or otherwise.
15% later announced with EU on all goods. I'm sure he will pat himself on the back, no matter what the implications.

I'd still be asking questions here for real world, brain power resolutions.
Enjoy.....
--- Based on statements from MIT researchers and experts, there's a strong belief that AI could be capable of managing financial accounts autonomously within approximately five years.
Specifically:
Andrew Lo, a finance professor and AI expert at MIT, believes large language models (LLMs) could have the technical ability to make real investment decisions for clients within five years. He envisions a future where AI can meet fiduciary standards, understand human emotions, and learn from feedback.
He also emphasizes the importance of human-machine collaboration, suggesting that combining human intuition with AI's capabilities could lead to optimal financial strategies.
Other MIT Sloan researchers highlight the increasing use of AI in finance, particularly for research, automation, and personalization of financial strategies, making insights more accessible and affordable.
While there's enthusiasm, it's also recognized that implementing AI in this context presents challenges, including reliability in high-stakes decision-making and ethical considerations, according to Bloomberg AI.
In summary, MIT experts like Andrew Lo foresee the potential for AI to autonomously manage financial accounts within the next five years, emphasizing the crucial role of AI meeting fiduciary standards and the benefits of human-machine collaboration in this evolving landscape.

There are a lot of ways to look at it but starting at today's value of Shiller CAPE PE Ratio for SP500 of 37, the subsequent 10 year returns have never been above Zero

For the curious. The information is presumed accurate.
Investing in private equity through a 401(k) plan is a relatively new and evolving concept that has generated discussion among investors and industry professionals.
Here's what to know:
Potential Benefits:
Higher Returns: Private equity has historically shown the potential for higher returns compared to public markets, according to SmartAsset. Private equity funds have delivered an average annual return of 13.1% over the previous 25 years, compared to the S&P 500's average return of 8.6% during the same period. This outperformance is often attributed to private equity's focus on undervalued companies, real estate, and infrastructure, which may be less exposed to market volatility.
Diversification: Adding private equity to a 401(k) can provide diversification beyond traditional stocks and bonds, potentially mitigating risk and offering exposure to assets less correlated with public markets.
Access to previously inaccessible assets: For individual investors, private equity investments have traditionally been limited to institutional and high-net-worth investors due to high entry barriers and complexity. Expanding 401(k) options could provide access to these alternative investment vehicles.
Potential Risks:
Illiquidity: Private equity investments are illiquid, meaning they are difficult to sell quickly or easily, often requiring capital lock-ups for several years. This can be a concern for individuals needing quick access to their retirement savings.
High Fees: Private equity funds typically charge higher fees compared to traditional mutual funds and ETFs. These fees can erode returns, especially over the long term. Private equity funds often charge a management fee (around 2%) plus a share of the profits (around 20%).
Complexity and Lack of Transparency: Private equity involves complex investment strategies and less regulatory oversight and transparency compared to publicly traded assets, making it harder to assess and value these investments.
Volatility: While long-term returns may be higher, short-term fluctuations in private equity valuations can be significant.
Regulatory Landscape and Future Outlook:
The Department of Labor (DOL) has issued guidance regarding private equity investments in 401(k) plans, allowing their inclusion within professionally managed funds like target-date funds.
However, the DOL also emphasizes the need for fiduciaries to carefully consider the risks and ensure appropriate safeguards, including disclosure, valuations, and addressing liquidity concerns.
Recent reports suggest potential further loosening of regulations, potentially allowing more direct access to private equity within 401(k)s. This has generated debate about the appropriate balance between expanding access to potentially higher returns and protecting retirement savers from undue risks.
Some major investment firms, including BlackRock and Empower, are already planning to offer private equity options within target-date funds or other professionally managed 401(k) options in the near future. BlackRock estimates that adding private assets could boost returns by approximately 50 basis points per year and increase the total value of a 401(k) by 15% over 40 years.
Important Considerations for Investors:
Consult a Financial Advisor: It is crucial to seek advice from a qualified financial advisor to understand the complexities and risks involved before considering private equity investments in your 401(k).
Risk Tolerance and Time Horizon: Private equity is generally suited for younger investors with a longer time horizon and a higher risk tolerance, as it involves greater volatility and illiquidity.
Fees and Liquidity: Carefully evaluate the fee structure and liquidity terms of any private equity fund before investing.
Diversification and Allocation: Consider a limited, strategic allocation to private equity within a diversified retirement portfolio, as advised by financial professionals. Some experts suggest limiting private market exposure to 5-10% for most investors.
AI responses may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional.

Wow. Crazy. Can count about a half-dozen harrowing experiences in my long life that could / should have ended it. Escaped thus far. Was not aware of the shock hazard. Did a lot of foolish stuff with electricity as a kid but never tried replacing a tube. I do have a large bug zapper that even unplugged for several minutes retains quite a charge as I’ve learned the hard way. Suspect vacuum tubes may also be that way.
OMG - They make bug zappers too! See Ad

The referenced M* article examines the U.S. Dollar situation objectively.

I never claimed it didn't I just made extra observations and put it in a broader context and history. The 24/7 media love to tell bad/sad stories because you click and read, and they make money.

Information regarding the shifting landscape for the U.S. Dollar could be very useful for investors.

And I made observations about that too...and what to do.

Enigma: Why would anyone constantly tout their peculiar "investing system"
and proffer, in effect, the same unsolicited advice repeatedly?
I'm fairly certain most forum participants are not interested in reading the same commentary ad nauseam!

Everyone has their own style of investing.
Some hardly touch their portfolios, some trade weekly, and many like to post about it.
That’s exactly what this site is for—sharing opinions and perspectives.
If something doesn’t resonate with you, you can simply move on.
Was my post "the same commentary ad nauseam!"? No, for the first time in my life, my portfolio is invested mostly abroad.
I’ve said it before: my approach isn’t for everyone, and I’ve never claimed otherwise.
One of the best contributors here is Charles Lynn Bolin—he does a fantastic job analyzing the market each month according to his style and sometimes adds thoughtful commentary during the month.
Does it bother me? Not at all.
I read, think critically, and decide what fits my strategy.
Lastly, I never singled you out or criticized you personally in this thread.
You, on the other hand, have done exactly that.
Let’s stay focused on ideas, not on attacking others for having a different view.

The referenced M* article examines the U.S. Dollar situation objectively.
I don't understand why certain people become so defensive when factual data is presented.
These same people will often try to be clever by cherry-picking random data
and ignoring the big picture in a feeble attempt to "prove" their case.
Information regarding the shifting landscape for the U.S. Dollar could be very useful for investors.
This information should not be viewed strictly via a partisan political lens.
Enigma: Why would anyone constantly tout their peculiar "investing system"
and proffer, in effect, the same unsolicited advice repeatedly?
I'm fairly certain most forum participants are not interested in reading the same commentary ad nauseam!

for those in risk off/wealth preservation mode, mkt indicators seem peaking.
thus, am trimming gains+losses in equity where i can, limits are getting bids.
found an unusual amount of agreement from various macro sources. (stonex, zeihan, jpm, poskar, klement,ferguson)
convergence of events june-july :
- as q2 positive earnings reported, look for unusual amount of weak\no earnings forecasts for q3 period
- capex going below trend, but ignore overcapacity signal from buildouts maturing
- trump tariff baseline at 10% is still quadruple of 2024. ~50% sentiment that trump will not taco >10% for most, china remains highest.
- first sign of shelf shortages during china shipping pause in spring
- expected senate vote on budget bill adding $3t debt
(again, oil shock and war cost excluded)
at least 2 sources indicated ~15% mkt decline would be select buying opportunity. meh.

@hank and @Crash for some excellent discussion(s) on CEF's check out this forum Early Retirement
dickoncapecod (read his bio) is an excellent resource, knowledgeable and helpful. There are also a number of other well versed posters. Hope you find it worth your time.
Note: the "CEF Holdings ---- June 2025" thread the link should take you to changes by the month should you decide to keep visiting.
I usually hold 10-12 CEF's in a mixture of equity and bond versions. I think that most people hold them for the income that is thrown off but as @hank may have mentioned the trick is to know when to buy or bail. Buying at a discount works most of the time for me but not always. Sometimes it's a signal that the fund has lost its mojo but not always. Also be aware that at some brokerages (Fidelity) distributions are reinvested at a 3-5% discount but not every CEF provider provides that on the platform.
I also follow (subscribe) to a service provided by Doug Albo (mostly equity CEF's) on SA. ADS Analytics is also a highly regarded resource there.

Good points @PressmUP. It was just the unexpected price swings around X-dividend date that puzzled me. And I’ve noticed the same with other CEFs. You helped by noting these strange price swings are common.
I’m aware CEFs are priced by sentiment and do not often trade at NAV. I owned 15-16 a month or so ago and commented proudly on my ”CEF basket” here a few times. Many of them were doing very well. But when I pulled up the 2008 performance (where it was available) I learned that several of my “hottest” ones had lost between 50% and 65%* in 2008 alone. So, I pulled back out of caution. At age 79 I’m not going to go chasing anything lower as I did in ‘08.
Still own 11 CEFs. Most are somewhat sedate and income oriented - even though I realize they aren’t the “hottest rods” on the block! BTW - GDL held up well in 2008 losing just 8%.
Yes - Best to avoid thinly traded holdings. Tough to get on the fire escape when needed! :)
* UTF is the one that lost 65% in 2008. Yet, I’ve come across well meaning financial articles describing the fund as an excellent “conservative” choice ”for older investors”. Obviously those writers hadn’t bothered to pull up its past performance.

The only crypto I would touch is Bitcoin and maybe Ether. IMO everything else is junk.
I have a few hundred in BTC that I mess with now and then, but after the Crypto Winter a few years ago (which I escaped from early with all my earnings/winnings, thankfully) I am not rushing to get back into it anytime soon.

as hoped for, munis so far seem to narrowly escape trump's favors\grift\chaos radar...
"...the potential demise of tax exemption under the Trump administration had helped crimp relative performance. That risk has seemingly gone by the wayside after the “The One Big Beautiful Bill” – that is the formal name – passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22 maintained muni’s tax-advantaged status (the sprawling legislation now moves to the Senate, with further tweaks forthcoming)."
giro\Grant's

From Morningstar's 2025 Diversification Landscape report (link in preceding article).
I haven't read the entire 50+ page report.
Key Takeaways:
• The plain-vanilla version of a 60/40 portfolio (made up of US stocks and US investment-grade bonds)
gained about 15% in 2024. Diversifying into other asset classes generally led to lower returns.
• Although broader portfolio diversification was a net positive during the 2022 bear market,
the basic 60/40 portfolio, composed of US stocks and high-quality bonds,
has been tough to beat over longer periods.
A 60/40 portfolio improved risk-adjusted returns versus an all-stock benchmark
in more than 83% of the rolling 10-year periods dating back to 1976.
• Correlations between the United States and other developed markets around the world
have remained high while non-US stocks lagged by a wide margin through 2024,
raising questions about the long-term value of international diversification.
• Over the past 20 years several asset classes—including corporate bonds, global bonds, high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, REITs, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities—have become more closely correlated
with stocks. Many of these categories have also posted losses in periods of equity market stress.
In such periods, Treasury bonds, gold, commodities, and some alternative investment strategies
have been more compelling portfolio diversifiers.
• Diversification strategies that have worked in the past may not work in the future.
In a period of rising interest rates and/or above-average inflation, Treasuries and other high-quality bonds
would likely be less reliable diversifiers, although they still have merit as core portfolio holdings.
The major shifts in US tariff policy announced in April 2025 have also added massive levels of uncertainty
to the investment landscape, potentially upending many previously established performance patterns.

If target-date funds were a country’s gross domestic product, it would be the fifth-largest in the world, ranking behind the US, China, Germany, and Japan. Between inflows and market appreciation, assets have climbed at an astounding compounded rate of more than 30% annualized over the past 15 years. We explore these market trends and more in the recently released 2025 Target-Date Strategy Landscape

M* Article
https://morningstar.com/funds/target-date-funds-have-delivered-investors

you are referring to the winning Ren.tech fund...the one of several, but never open to the public?
i guess no one else had the, uh, capex nor intellectual capacity. :)

most realize it is a momentum mkt, and a short-term correction to all time highs is very much a possibility :
- being unable to extract any more donations\bribes in 1-on-1 tariff negotiations, trump gets bored and declares victory resulting in status quo via combination of exemptions and suspensions. (abundant signals already)
- extension of tax cuts actually happen
- through recession, coercion, or independent decisions, short term rates may get cut
what the market will get WRONG in its short-term weighting is that there is any viable trump strategy and no longterm economic damage. effective capex injury from halted reshoring away from china has already taken hits for ~10 weeks of uncertainty regardless of MAGA propaganda.
what the vast majority also gets wrong (continuously) is that they can time it...refer to trump bump and 4 years of a golden age vibe post-election.