The US Treasury first implemented Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS) in 1997, and they now make up about 7% of the Treasury market.  Since then, inflation has rarely gone above 3% until 2021. Tariffs (customs duties) began surging in 2018, and President Trump is now implementing widespread tariffs. With retailers having low profit margins, these tariffs will mostly be passed on a tax on consumers. This article represents my research on how to invest the bond portion of a portfolio to reduce volatility and prepare for higher inflation.

Inflation Forecasts

Inflation by various measures has fallen below 2.3%. Tariff increases were announced on April 2^nd, and it takes time for products with the additional tariffs to reach the shelves. The Fed – Monetary Policy: Beige Book describes prices increasing at a Continue reading →

Matthews Asia is navigating a challenging period. Founded 30 years ago by Paul Matthews, the firm achieved a rare trifecta: consistently outstanding risk-sensitive returns across the entire fund family, outstanding success, such as the once $60 million AUM firm touched the $36 billion mark, and enormous professional respect as the country’s premier Asian investing specialist with a robust internal culture and deep bench.

The Matthews Asia of 2025 feels a long way from that success.

Assets have plummeted Continue reading →

Many and many a year ago, in the kingdom of ABC, Woody Allen was one of my very first guests. And we consented to take questions from an eager audience of mostly young people. Like ourselves.

The questioner looked like a high school girl and shouted to Woody from the balcony, “Do you think sex is dirty?”

Allen: “It is if you do it right.” (Dick Cavett, “As the comics say, These kids today! I tell ya.” New York Times, 9/13/2013)

I’d rather hoped that the observation originated with someone rather more wholesome, Groucho Marx or Mae West, for example, but we’re stuck with Continue reading →