Welcome, dear friends.
Welcome to autumn. The apples are in, the trees are changing, flurries threaten – four of my students have never seen snow except at the movies – and, at long last, summer’s wardrobe has been laid to its rest. The clocks “fell back” as I was writing this essay, offering me a bonus hour in my day. Hesitant, as ever, to be wasteful, I resolved to spend my gifted hour thinking Interesting Thoughts.
Warren Buffett has more Continue reading →
In the buttoned-down world of institutional asset management, T Rowe Price has long been the firm that makes boring look brilliant. While competitors chased hot trends and flashy returns, the Baltimore-based firm built its reputation as the quintessential “singles hitter,” compounding modest, steady gains into industry-leading long-term performance through disciplined, research-driven processes.
Which makes the 87-year-old firm’s October 2025 filing Continue reading →
In this topsy-turvy world, characterized by unprecedented tariffs, rapidly changing policies, spending cuts, geopolitical risk, high deficits, and elevated valuations, I tend to be more conservative. I have added toggles to my “Rate and Rank” spreadsheet, allowing me to evaluate funds through the lenses of “Risk Off” and “Yield” for a conservative, tax-advantaged account. Table #1 shows how I rank sector Lipper Categories from highest-ranked category to lowest, along with the highest-ranked five funds. Some sectors are in Continue reading →
Using historical data on funds to make assumptions about future performance involves correctly interpreting the trends. Over the past six years, the U.S. has experienced an extraordinarily unusual period:
On October 13, 2025, GMO launched its newest ETF, GMO Dynamic Allocation ETF (GMOD). The ETF is managed by Co-Heads of Asset Allocation Ben Inker and John Thorndike, and draws on GMO’s proprietary 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts. It will typically range between 40% and 80% equity exposure and can invest broadly across stocks and bonds, not limited by sector, market cap, credit quality, or geography.
This would be an interesting but distinctly contrarian operation. The key is that GMO has a strong and well-founded belief that Continue reading →
Welcome to the casino! GraniteShares 3x Short AMD Daily ETP, a product marketed for European investors, recently pulled off the rare feat of going to zero. The fund, purely a speculator’s trading vehicle, was designed to rise by 3% for every 1% that AMD stock fell. Perfect opp for experienced sharks to dart in, tear off a chunk of carcass, and get out before anything bad can happen. Think of a holding time that might be measured in seconds, and you’re there.
The fund imploded when Continue reading →
