Category Archives: Mutual Fund Commentary

October 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the October issue of the Mutual Fund Observer. We’re glad you’re here.

And welcome to the Dog Days of Autumn! The natural world is scrambling to keep up with the changes we’ve triggered, and continue to intensify, upon it. As I walked one of the many bike/hike trails in the Quad Cities on Sunday, I confronted two worlds. One was defined by 90-degree temperatures, hot sunshine, and cracked earth. The other by the rhythm of birds called southward and plants quietening for the season to Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Tweedy, Browne International Insider + Value ETF

By David Snowball

On September 10, 2025, Tweedy, Browne Company LLC, launched the International Insider + Value ETF (ICPY). The ETF is both actively managed and fully transparent, which might engender some risk (for example, front-running by high-speed traders) but also simplifies the structure and reduces complexity.

The managers have the freedom to create an all-cap, all-world portfolio that can invest in developed and developing markets and, to a limited extent, in the US. The plan is simple Continue reading →

Putting My Conservative Retirement Portfolio on Cruise Control

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I am well on my way to implementing my version of the all-weather portfolio, where some funds will perform well in any environment. This conservative retirement portfolio is a subset of my overall portfolio and fits into tax-advantaged accounts within the intermediate bucket, along with several traditional bond funds and bond ladders. The goal for this “basket” of funds is to have income that meets most withdrawal needs with some Continue reading →

Launch Alert: RACWI US ETF

By David Snowball

On September 12, 2025, Research Affiliates launched the RACWI US ETF, which will track its proprietary RACWI US Index. This is just RA’s second directly managed fund, following Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NIXT), which launched in September 2024 and targets the stocks dropped from traditional large- to mid-cap indexes.

Research Affiliates, founded in 2002 by Rob Arnott, is a Newport Beach–based investment firm recognized for Continue reading →

Long-term Inflation Protection for Conservative Portfolios

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Gold is considered one of the best hedges against inflation and uncertainty. Gold fell from about $385 in 1995 to a low of around $250 by 2001, to a high of $1,750 in 2011 before falling to $1060 in 2015. It is now over $3,750. For the past ten years, iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has had a total return of 195% compared to 289% for Vanguard 500 Index ETF (VOO). In this article, I compare funds with lower volatility than stocks and gold to protect from inflation. Preparing for inflation should be part of an overall strategy and not just timing the market when inflation rises.

Most of my career was in the precious metals industry Continue reading →

Launch Alert: The Militia Long Short ETF

By David Snowball

An Unusual Offering from an Unusual Manager

In January 2025, the Militia Long Short Equity ETF (ticker: ORR) launched. We’re profiling it because Sam Lee strongly recommended we look at it, and we trust Sam Lee. Founder of Austin-based SVRN Asset Management, former Morningstar strategist and editor of ETFInvestor newsletter and MFO contributor, Sam is very smart, has assessed a lot of managers, and has never invested in a hedge fund before. He describes Continue reading →

Briefly Noted

By TheShadow

Updates

The conversion of Akre Focus Fund into an ETF was authorized by its investors in September and is proceeding apace. Thanks to all who took the time to vote their shares!

Briefly Noted . . .

Launches and Reorganizations

On October 17, abrdn International Small Cap fund and the $36m abrdn Intermediate Municipal Income fund will become the abrdn International Small Cap Active ETF and the abrdn Ultra Short Municipal Income Active ETF, respectively. Continue reading →

September 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the September oh-so-totally back-to-school issue of the Mutual Fund Observer! We’re glad you’re here.

I’ve got the privilege of teaching an Honors section of Introduction to the Liberal Arts for the first time in a quarter century. It’s a delight and a terror. Many of my students, like many of you, start with a mistaken idea of what “the liberal arts” are. They are not “the fusty old white guy stuff that they made me sit through until I could get into my major classes.” (sigh) At their simplest, the liberal arts are Continue reading →

Preparing For An Inflection Point On Interest Rates

By Charles Lynn Bolin

What a month it has been. The jobs numbers for May and June were revised lower, and the July numbers were below expectations as a wakeup call to a slowing economy. Two weeks later, wholesale prices rose 3.3% compared to a year earlier, and the producer price index rose 0.9% compared to the month before as tariffs began to raise the cost of inputs. National debt hit $37 trillion in August. Underlying growth for the economy year-to-date is a weak 1.4%, but it is distorted by imports. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave his speech following the Jackson Hole Symposium, in which he expressed rising risks to employment, persistent inflation pressures, and an openness to interest rate cuts. The markets reacted Continue reading →

Thinking more broadly: Bonds beyond vanilla

By David Snowball

Traditionally, the job description for a core bond manager was numbing: (1) show up for work, (2) buy a bunch of Treasury bonds and some investment grade intermediate corporates, (3) celebrate the trading coup that allowed you to buy the same bond as everyone else but for a quarter basis point less – woohoo!, (4) go home and enjoy a fiber-rich dinner and small glass of red wine.

In reality, managers added negligible value. Over 10 Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Franklin Multisector Income ETF

By David Snowball

On August 28, 2025, Franklin Templeton launched the Franklin Multisector Income ETF (MULT), an actively managed fund designed to pursue diversified income and long-term capital appreciation. The fund targets dynamic exposure across global fixed income markets while maintaining what the company calls “a disciplined risk management framework.”

The fund invests opportunistically across Continue reading →

BlackRock Systematic Multi-Strategy (BAMBX) vs BlackRock Tactical Opportunities (PCBAX)

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Reducing my risk profile for accounts that Fidelity manages allows more flexibility in what I manage. In other words, the intermediate investment bucket aggressive sub portfolio that Fidelity manages became more conservative, while I added a little risk to the conservative sub portfolio that I manage.

I would like to design a low-risk sub-portfolio that has a low correlation to stocks and bonds, returns about 5%, and has some inflation protection. The objective is to always have at least one fund that is up while still having decent returns. I began with the MFO Premium fund screener and Lipper global dataset, limited by correlations to the S&P 500 and bonds, low losses for the minimum rolling three-year period, and an MFO Risk rating of average or lower. I trimmed Continue reading →

Briefly Noted . . .

By TheShadow

We wrote last month about the plan to convert Akre Focus Fund into an ETF (“Enduring Principles, Evolving Markets,” 8/2025), a move that would benefit shareholders by increasing interest in the portfolio, reducing expenses, and controlling taxes. That plan encountered a stumbling block: fund shareholders have not bestirred themselves to cast their vote (up or down) on the change proposal. According to the adviser’s rep, only 23% of shares have been voted, which requires an expensive second round of solicitations in hopes of reaching the 50.1% threshold. Continue reading →

August 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the August issue of the Mutual Fund Observer! We just completed one of the five rainiest Julys in the city’s history, with three torrential downpours (the garden celebrates) and roll expectantly into August.

For those of us who teach for a living, August is the season of watchful waiting, a phrase lifted from the Christian celebration of Advent. The faithful are waiting for … you know, Continue reading →

Portfolio Risk Assessment

By Charles Lynn Bolin

In my former life in the private sector prior to retiring, part of my role was risk mitigation; identifying potential bad things that might happen and minimizing their impact in case they do happen. I have carried that practice into investing. The financial landscape is constantly changing, but these changes are extreme this year. In preparation for the known unknown, I lowered my stock-to-bond allocation from 65% to 55% by changing what I manage. I desired to lower my stock-to-bond ratio even further to 50% within a range of 50% to 60% and was able to do so by changing my profile with my Financial Advisor at Fidelity.

I use Vanguard to manage a portion of my investments and enjoy reading Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts for insights about long-term returns. In January of this year, Isabel Wang described Vanguard’s view that investors could Continue reading →

When Reality Bites: Preparing for Market Turbulence Ahead

By David Snowball

I’m struck by the near unanimity of Informed Commentary on the direction of the US stock market. People seem to agree that “the magic number” is 15%.

The disagreement comes in the query: but 15% in which direction? There, there’s about a 50/50 split among the people paid to pretend to know the future. Both growth and recession, market melt-up and market meltdown scenarios are broadly represented. “The melt-up in risk assets continues,” saith HSBC, the global bank based in London. Remember that markets spiked about Alan Greenspan’s original warning about “irrational exuberance.”

We’ll offer a snippet Continue reading →

Trending Funds at Mid-2025

By Charles Lynn Bolin

My strategy involves looking at what is trending according to my rating system, and buying what fits into my portfolio if I can build a storyline behind it. My rating system of nearly a thousand funds is based mostly on data from Mutual Fund Observer to reflect my assessment of short and intermediate-term trends. I selected the funds using MFO Family ratings, assets under management, risk, and risk-adjusted performance, and availability without loads and transaction fees through Fidelity and Vanguard.

From the S&P 500 PE Ratio – 90 Year Historical Chart by Macrotrends, I estimate that the price-to-earnings ratio today is at the Continue reading →

Enduring Principles, Evolving Markets: The Next Chapter for Akre Focus

By David Snowball

In December 2020, Chuck Akre (1941 – today) stepped away from managing the Akre Focus fund, though he remains chairman of Akre Capital Management. During much of his 50+ year investing career, he built an unassailable reputation for discipline, independence, and excellence. The core of his investment strategy was captured by “the three-legged stool.” He looked for (1) extraordinary Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Rainwater Equity ETF

By David Snowball

On June 17, 2025, Rainwater Equity launched its first fund called, well, Rainwater Equity ETF (RW). The fund pursues long-term capital appreciation by investing in a concentrated portfolio of businesses with recurring revenue and robust leadership. The fund targets dominant companies that generate predictable cash flows and foster customer loyalty. Businesses that might qualify are Continue reading →