Dear friends,
Welcome to the August issue of the Mutual Fund Observer! We just completed one of the five rainiest Julys in the city’s history, with three torrential downpours (the garden celebrates) and roll expectantly into August.
For those of us who teach for a living, August is the season of watchful waiting, a phrase lifted from the Christian celebration of Advent. The faithful are waiting for … you know, Continue reading →
In my former life in the private sector prior to retiring, part of my role was risk mitigation; identifying potential bad things that might happen and minimizing their impact in case they do happen. I have carried that practice into investing. The financial landscape is constantly changing, but these changes are extreme this year. In preparation for the known unknown, I lowered my stock-to-bond allocation from 65% to 55% by changing what I manage. I desired to lower my stock-to-bond ratio even further to 50% within a range of 50% to 60% and was able to do so by changing my profile with my Financial Advisor at Fidelity.
I use Vanguard to manage a portion of my investments and enjoy reading Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts for insights about long-term returns. In January of this year, Isabel Wang described Vanguard’s view that investors could Continue reading →
I’m struck by the near unanimity of Informed Commentary on the direction of the US stock market. People seem to agree that “the magic number” is 15%.
The disagreement comes in the query: but 15% in which direction? There, there’s about a 50/50 split among the people paid to pretend to know the future. Both growth and recession, market melt-up and market meltdown scenarios are broadly represented. “The melt-up in risk assets continues,” saith HSBC, the global bank based in London. Remember that markets spiked about Alan Greenspan’s original warning about “irrational exuberance.”
We’ll offer a snippet Continue reading →
The new Navigation Bar, which resides atop each page of our MFO Premium website, is depicted below. Continue reading →
My strategy involves looking at what is trending according to my rating system, and buying what fits into my portfolio if I can build a storyline behind it. My rating system of nearly a thousand funds is based mostly on data from Mutual Fund Observer to reflect my assessment of short and intermediate-term trends. I selected the funds using MFO Family ratings, assets under management, risk, and risk-adjusted performance, and availability without loads and transaction fees through Fidelity and Vanguard.
From the S&P 500 PE Ratio – 90 Year Historical Chart by Macrotrends, I estimate that the price-to-earnings ratio today is at the Continue reading →
In December 2020, Chuck Akre (1941 – today) stepped away from managing the Akre Focus fund, though he remains chairman of Akre Capital Management. During much of his 50+ year investing career, he built an unassailable reputation for discipline, independence, and excellence. The core of his investment strategy was captured by “the three-legged stool.” He looked for (1) extraordinary Continue reading →
On June 17, 2025, Rainwater Equity launched its first fund called, well, Rainwater Equity ETF (RW). The fund pursues long-term capital appreciation by investing in a concentrated portfolio of businesses with recurring revenue and robust leadership. The fund targets dominant companies that generate predictable cash flows and foster customer loyalty. Businesses that might qualify are Continue reading →
Blessed are the forgetful, for they “get the better” even of their blunders. Friedrich Nietzsche, “Our Virtues,” Beyond Good and Evil (1886)
Our summer tradition is to update you on our ruminations and recommendations from three (or five) years ago. That exercise serves three purposes:
Akre Focus Fund will be reorganized into an active ETF, pending shareholder approval. They vote in mid-August. If approved, this will be the largest fund-to-ETF conversion (at $12+ billion) ever. Read more in this month’s article, Enduring Principles, Evolving Markets.
ARK ETF Trust Crypto Active ETF is in registration. The fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that will invest in domestic and foreign equity securities of companies that invest in, or create investment exposure to one or more “Crypto Assets.” Cathie Wood will be the portfolio manager. Expenses have Continue reading →
Dear friends,
Welcome to the “Midsommar in Scandinavia” issue of the Mutual Fund Observer. Chip and I are enjoying a long-planned holiday in Sweden and Norway. We’re equally delighted that you’re here … and we’re there!
Among other things (how would I know for sure? I’m in Gamla Stan), Lynn Bolin addresses the emerging threat of tariff-induced inflation with “Protecting Against Tariff Induced Inflation,” analyzing how widespread tariffs will likely be passed through to consumers and drive inflation to an estimated 3.4% peak next quarter. Drawing on five years of post-pandemic bond performance data, he demonstrates Continue reading →
The US Treasury first implemented Inflation-Protected Bonds (TIPS) in 1997, and they now make up about 7% of the Treasury market. Since then, inflation has rarely gone above 3% until 2021. Tariffs (customs duties) began surging in 2018, and President Trump is now implementing widespread tariffs. With retailers having low profit margins, these tariffs will mostly be passed on a tax on consumers. This article represents my research on how to invest the bond portion of a portfolio to reduce volatility and prepare for higher inflation.
Inflation by various measures has fallen below 2.3%. Tariff increases were announced on April 2nd, and it takes time for products with the additional tariffs to reach the shelves. The Fed – Monetary Policy: Beige Book describes prices increasing at a Continue reading →
Matthews Asia is navigating a challenging period. Founded 30 years ago by Paul Matthews, the firm achieved a rare trifecta: consistently outstanding risk-sensitive returns across the entire fund family, outstanding success, such as the once $60 million AUM firm touched the $36 billion mark, and enormous professional respect as the country’s premier Asian investing specialist with a robust internal culture and deep bench.
The Matthews Asia of 2025 feels a long way from that success.
Assets have plummeted Continue reading →
Many and many a year ago, in the kingdom of ABC, Woody Allen was one of my very first guests. And we consented to take questions from an eager audience of mostly young people. Like ourselves.
The questioner looked like a high school girl and shouted to Woody from the balcony, “Do you think sex is dirty?”
Allen: “It is if you do it right.” (Dick Cavett, “As the comics say, These kids today! I tell ya.” New York Times, 9/13/2013)
I’d rather hoped that the observation originated with someone rather more wholesome, Groucho Marx or Mae West, for example, but we’re stuck with Continue reading →
On June 18, 2025, Stewart Investors, an active, long-only global equity specialist with $16.5 billion in assets under management, launched the Stewart Investors Worldwide Leaders fund (SWWLX) with an initial investment from a U.S. foundation. SWWLX is the firm’s first fund available to regular US investors.
Stewart is Edinburgh-based and describes themselves this way: “We are a small team of passionate investors managing, on behalf of our clients, investment portfolios with a focus Continue reading →
Here are links to chart deck and video …
MFOP 2025 Mid-Year Review Chart Deck
MFOP 2025 Mid-Year Review Webinar Video
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We’ve scheduled our mid-year review webinar for Thursday (today), 3 July at 11 am Pacific (2pm Eastern). We will use MultiSearch ANALYTICS and PreSet Screens to highlight performance of funds across different market segments. Please join us by registering here.
A couple improvements Continue reading →
The Angel Oak Total Return ETF is in registration. The managers will have the freedom to invest in just about every conceivable sort of income-generating security, from investment-grade, corporate bonds to asset-backed securities that include student loan portfolios. Ward Bortz, Namit Sinha, and Clayton Triick will be the portfolio managers of the ETF. Expenses have not been stated at this time.
Goldman Sachs‘ Enhanced U.S. Equity, Strategic Growth Fund, Focused Value, and Technology Opportunities funds will be reorganized Continue reading →
Welcome to the June issue of the Mutual Fund Observer!
It’s a grand month, whose start was marked by the 165th commencement ceremony celebrating Augustana’s graduates. The college was born in 1860, an expression of longing and ambition. Swedish immigrants in the Midwest – and there were a lot of them – wanted to provide their children with a better life, which, to them, meant a good education. At the same time, they didn’t want their children to forget their homeland and its proud traditions.
So, they made a college. Modeled after the great universities in northern Europe, Augustana became an expression of faith: in the welcome that America gave its new citizens, in the country’s endless promise, in the power of education, Continue reading →
I like Will Rogers’ quote, “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.” A good friend of mine once said that a balanced portfolio will usually have funds that are losing money. Then there are the unusual years like 2022 when few categories other than money market funds, short-term bonds, and commodities had positive returns. This article looks at how Vanguard Global Wellesley Income Fund (VGWIX) may fit into the portfolio of a timid investor, or how WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged International Equity Fund (DDWM) might fit into the portfolio of a somewhat Continue reading →
I love baseball and personal finance, but I barely understand baseball’s sabermetrics and finance analytics. I want a good story.
The stat guys despise the Tampa Bay Rays’ Chandler Simpson because he only has a single tool: speed. The one home run he’s hit in his entire career was inside the park. This is a guy who can barely hit a ball out of the infield. I love him because he’s a Continue reading →
I created my best laid plans of mice and men for retirement, or as Dwight D. Eisenhower said, “plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable”. I follow much of what Christine Benz recommends in How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement. I divide my intermediate investment bucket, consisting of Traditional IRAs, into conservative sub-portfolios of bonds that I manage and more aggressive sub-portfolios of stocks and bonds managed by Fidelity and Vanguard for growth and income. In this article, I look at managing withdrawals in a secular bear market with Continue reading →
