Category Archives: Mutual Fund Commentary

Income Investment Strategy For 2025

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Uncertainty is in the air. Do you feel it? The price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is approaching 30 and is within bubble territory which implies below average long-term returns. Thirty-five percent is concentrated in the top ten holdings and 46% is concentrated in the Technology and Financial Sectors.  The economy is stronger than expected and inflation pressures still exist so volatility is high. The yield on the 10-year treasury fell from 4.7% last April to 3.6% in September back up to 4.8% last month and has fallen to 4.6%. Bond investors are expecting rates to remain higher for longer and want to be compensated for duration risk.

President Trump campaigned on the platform of tax cuts which are a stimulus but Continue reading →

Briefly noted

By TheShadow

Dana Emery, Chair and CEO of Dodge and Cox Funds, has decided to retire on December 31, 2025. Effective January 1, 2026, David Hoeft will succeed her as the Chair while continuing his CIO role. Roger Kuo will succeed as the Chair while continuing to serve as President of the firm.

Harbor Capital plans to launch eight subadvised ETFs across several asset classes in the coming months, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

There will be Continue reading →

January 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the January issue of Mutual Fund Observer.

January was named after Janus, the tutelary deity of the year’s first month. As tutelary, he was guardian, patron, and protector. Absent from the Greek pantheon, Janus was the Roman god of beginnings, transitions, and endings. It was the “transitions” part that led Romans to place the two-faced god near entries and passageways, where he oversaw their comings and Continue reading →

MFO Premium Year-End Review 2024

By Charles Boccadoro

On Wednesday, 8 January, at 11 a.m. Pacific (2 p.m. Eastern), we will be conducting our year-end webinar to review funds and MFO Premium updates. If you can make it, please join us by registering here.

We will use MultiSearch Pre-Set screens and other custom criteria to review fund performance in 2024. MultiSeach is the site’s Continue reading →

My ETF Picks for the Bucket Approach In 2025

By Charles Lynn Bolin

My retirement planning for the past two years since retiring has focused on the Bucket Approach to have the right funds in the right investment buckets to have high-risk adjusted returns while minimizing taxes over my lifetime. This article focuses on forty of the top performing ETFs that I believe can form a good foundation for the coming decade. I wrote Investing in 2025 And the Coming Decade describing why I think bonds will outperform stocks on a risk-adjusted basis Continue reading →

Not Built for This: The Argument for Infrastructure Investing in an Unstable Climate

By David Snowball

There’s a famous New Yorker cartoon that we don’t have permission to reproduce. It shows a cheerful executive speaking from a lectern in a conference room.

And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit!

Welcome to the case for infrastructure investing in Continue reading →

You Too Can Start an ETF

By Charles Boccadoro

At Tidal … The ETF Masters: Launch, Manage, and Grow Your ETF. We are an award-winning, full service ETF platform managing 183 ETFs in partnership with 68 issuers and responsible for $29bn+ AUM. Build Your ETF.

At ETF Architect … Want to easily create an ETF? Build, launch, and manage it with us. An Affordable, Turnkey, and Transparent White Label ETF Platform. Learn how we’ve helped innovative firms create new ETFs, convert separately managed accounts (SMAS), mutual funds, and hedge funds into ETFs, and tap the power of our platform to lower costs and streamline operations for existing ETFs. Create Your ETF. (Here’s an excellent presentation.)

Continue reading →

Lifetime Investment Strategies For Younger Investors

By Charles Lynn Bolin

“For the young the days go fast and the years go slow; for the old the days go slow and the years go fast.” – Anna Quindlen, Lots of Candles, Plenty of Cake: A Memoir of a Woman’s Life.

Secular bear markets with low returns along high volatility often deter younger investors from starting to invest, yet they offer tremendous buying opportunities. Prioritizing the long-term need to save for retirement over Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Virtus KAR Mid-Cap ETF

By David Snowball

On October 14, 2024, Virtus Investment Partners launched Virtus KAR Mid-Cap ETF (KMID). It targets “U.S. mid-cap companies with durable competitive advantages, excellent management, lower financial risk, and strong growth trajectories” selling at “attractive” valuations. The fund is managed by Jon Christensen and Craig Stone who also manage the five-star, $2.9 billion Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Core Fund. The ETF, like its sibling, will hold 25-35 stocks with a Continue reading →

Briefly Noted . . .

By David Snowball

Updates

The ETF end of the investment industry continues to be shaped by the mutual fund end. Jeff Benjamin at ETF.com reports “The mutual fund industry is setting new records for ETF conversions in 2024. According to Morningstar, there have been 55 ETF conversions this year through Dec. 17, which compares to 35 last year and 20 in 2022. The majority of the conversions this year have been in the fixed income space…” (“Mutual Funds Convert to ETFs at Record Levels,” ETF.com, 12/19/2024). The hottest trend has been the conversion of actively Continue reading →

December 1, 2024

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Winter is coming.

I’m so thankful.

And welcome to the modestly delayed December issue of the Mutual Fund Observer.

Traditionally, year’s end has been a slower time. The growing season has ended, and both the farm fields and the sports fields lie mostly empty in this part of the country. Going out at night is just a touch less attractive when “night” settles Continue reading →

Investing in 2025 And the Coming Decade

By Charles Lynn Bolin

It is that time of the year for the prognosticators to make their forecasts of what the markets will be like next year and perhaps for the adventurous few to project out the next ten to thirty years. “Do I have enough saved to retire if the stock and bond markets do not keep up with inflation for twenty years?” It is not a rhetorical question to ask ourselves.

I don’t want to be the Grinch who steals Christmas, but I hope for the best and prepare for lower long-term returns. Enjoy your favorite holiday meals, especially the desserts.

After reviewing Continue reading →

Building a chaos-resistant portfolio

By David Snowball

In everyday language, we use “chaos” to mean complete disorder or randomness – like a toddler’s playroom after a long afternoon or a desk buried under scattered papers. This kind of chaos implies there’s no underlying order or pattern at all. It suggests a temporary state of disarray that can be resolved or brought back to order.

There is, however, a second use of the term. In chaos theory, “chaos” has a precise and quite different Continue reading →

John Rekenthaler: A Farewell (for now) Tribute to Morningstar’s Skeptic-in-Chief

By David Snowball

FundAlarm (1996-2011), for which I penned a monthly column, was the site that gave rise to MFO. I was drawn to Fund Alarm long ago by the voice of its founder, Roy Weitz. During the lunatic optimism and opportunism of the 1990s (who now remembers Alberto Vilar, the NetNet and Nothing-but-Net funds, or mutual funds that clocked 200-300% annual returns?), Mr. Weitz and Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler spent a lot of time kicking over piles of trash – often piles that had Continue reading →

Envisioning the Chaos Protected Portfolio

By Charles Lynn Bolin

President-elect Trump is picking his staff appointees who are perceived by some to be controversial, unqualified, or even extremists. The justification is often that they are disruptors who will challenge the status quo. The rhetoric is increasing about adding tariffs, eliminating agencies, reducing regulations, and cutting Federal spending and staff. Rhetoric moves markets. This article is about protecting our portfolios from chaos during times of high uncertainty.

During the first three years of President Trump’s first term, Federal spending increased by nine percent after adjusting for inflation. This was partly because the 2017 tax cuts did not generate sufficient growth to pay for themselves. During the next four years with the pandemic-era stimulus, Federal spending increased by an additional seventeen percent adjusted for inflation. Federal spending is Continue reading →

Briefly Noted

By TheShadow

The Intrepid Small Cap Fund was reorganized into the Intrepid Capital Fund on November 22. Eric Cinnamond managed the Intrepid Small Cap Composite from 1998-2010 and the Intrepid Small Cap Fund from 2005-2010. Jayme Wiggins took over the Intrepid Small Cap Fund upon Eric’s departure in 2010.  Jayme Wiggins managed the fund using the same absolute return investment strategy until September 2018. Both are now part of Palm Valley Capital Management.

The Oakmark U.S. Large Cap ETF is in Continue reading →

Top Performing Multi-Cap Core Funds (FCTDX, VTI, VTCLX)

By Charles Lynn Bolin

How simply can we invest without getting too simple? Three of my largest holdings are multi-cap core funds held in accounts managed by Fidelity, Vanguard, or myself. I own Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI), Fidelity Strategic Advisers US Total Stock (FCTDX), and Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation Admiral (VTCLX). What is under the hood of these funds and how well do they perform compared to the market?

According to the Refinitiv Lipper U.S. Mutual Fund Classifications, multi-cap core funds “by portfolio practice, invest in a variety of market capitalization ranges without Continue reading →

Launch Alert: AlphaCentric Real Income Fund

By David Snowball

On November 1, 2024, the former AlphaCentric Strategic Income Fund was rebranded as AlphaCentric Real Income Fund with a new sub-advisor, broader strategy, and new expense ratio to accompany its new name.

CrossingBridge Advisors will manage the investment strategy by employing a team approach.  Portfolio managers are T. Kirk Whitney, CFA, who joined the firm as an analyst in 2013, Spencer Rolfe, who first joined in 2017, and David Sherman, CIO. CrossingBridge, with over $3.2 billion in assets as of 8/31/24 was Continue reading →