Category Archives: Mutual Fund Commentary

AI and MFO

By David Snowball

Since our January 2026 issue has two distinct, cautionary essays on the incursion of artificial intelligence chatbots into our lives, schools, and portfolios, it’s important for you to understand the role of AI at MFO.

Every single article is conceived and written by one of three human beings: Snowball, Lynn Bolin, or The Shadow. All of them are reviewed, cleaned, edited (and occasionally snickered at) by one of two human beings: Raychelle and Chip. Whether the argument or the writing is sublime or execrable, it’s human. Continue reading →

My 2026 Investment Plan

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I recently automated withdrawals from one conservative Traditional IRA (Core TIRA) into my short-term investment bucket for basic spending needs and emergencies. Previously, I automated withdrawals from a more aggressive Traditional IRA for longer-term discretionary spending needs. This exercise increased my focus on income. I just added Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) to my Core TIRA sub-portfolio as a lower-risk income fund rather than to pursue higher returns.

The Core TIRA is conservate Traditional IRA, within the Intermediate Investment Bucket, that is intended to have long-term returns of Continue reading →

Briefly Noted…

By TheShadow

Updates

Star manager Tiffany Hsiao returned to Matthews Asia in mid-November after a stint managing a private fund for Artisan Partners. In mid-December, she was joined by two members of her team from Artisan. It does not appear that she’ll be responsible for individual funds just now but will, instead, work with Mark Headley and the existing Matthews managers “to generate new perspectives and insights across portfolios.” This is unalloyedly good news for Matthews investors, and Continue reading →

December 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the December Mutual Fund Observer, and to the holiday season.

The Christmas of the early American republic would be barely recognizable to us. In many colonies, it was a workday, ignored or mistrusted; only some immigrant communities treated it as a true festival. You’ll remember the Christmas of Continue reading →

As The World Turns…

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Setting aside uncertainty this year over tariffs, affordability, a slowing economy, high stock market valuations, and government shutdowns, this article is focused on the long-term risk of the next financial crisis. I am not worried about a gloom and doom scenario.  I do want to have a portion of my overall portfolio prepared for another financial crisis or currency devaluation, whether it is associated with the next bear market or one after that.

This Time Is Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009) by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff covers debt cycles and financial crises: Continue reading →

The Kids are Alright

By David Snowball

MFO’s founding mission is to “write for the benefit of intellectually curious, serious investors— managers, advisers, and individuals—who need to go beyond marketing fluff, beyond computer-generated recommendations and beyond Morningstar’s coverage universe.” But one of our core precepts is “80% of all existing funds could disappear today with no loss to anyone, except possibly the managers who have to explain it to their spouses.” The goodriddance group includes two overlapping sorts of idiocy: (1) many are launched Continue reading →

Launch Alert: GMO Domestic Resilience ETF

By David Snowball

On October 1, 2025, GMO launched the GMO Domestic Resilience ETF (DRES), bringing the firm’s time-tested quality-focused investment discipline to a distinctly contemporary challenge: identifying companies positioned to benefit as manufacturing, defense production, and critical supply chains return to U.S. soil. DRES represents GMO’s bet that reshoring and nearshoring—the movement of production capacity back onshore or to nearby allies—constitutes more than political theater or a temporary supply-chain correction. The fund targets sectors at the heart of this shift: Continue reading →

Launch Alert: MFS Active Mid Cap ETF

By David Snowball

On September 24, 2025, MFS Investment Management launched the MFS Active Mid Cap ETF (MMID), bringing one of the firm’s most seasoned mid-cap strategies into the ETF wrapper. The fund represents a straightforward translation of MFS Mid Cap Value – a strategy portfolio manager Kevin Schmitz has managed since 2008 – into a more tax-efficient and accessible structure. What distinguishes MMID is not novelty but pedigree: a 17-year track record, a manager who joined MFS as an equity analyst in 2002 and has spent more than Continue reading →

Portfolio Performance During One Hundred Years of Bear Markets

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I just finished reading Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order – Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio. Mr. Dalio states:

“Dealing with the future is all about 1) perceiving and adapting to what is happening, even if it can’t be anticipated; 2) coming up with probabilities for what might happen; and 3) knowing enough about what might happen to protect oneself against the unacceptable, even if one can’t do that perfectly.”

I recently spent a weekend in the historic mining town Continue reading →

Briefly Noted…

By TheShadow

Updates

On November 10th, Tiffany Hsiao rejoined Matthews Asia after leaving the firm in August 2020 to join Artisan Partners to launch a China-focused private fund. Prior to her departure, Tiffany managed the firm’s China Small Companies, former Asia Small Companies (now Emerging Markets Small Companies), and Asia Innovators strategies.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission cleared the way for Dimensional Fund Advisors to Continue reading →

November 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Welcome, dear friends.

Welcome to autumn. The apples are in, the trees are changing, flurries threaten – four of my students have never seen snow except at the movies – and, at long last, summer’s wardrobe has been laid to its rest. The clocks “fell back” as I was writing this essay, offering me a bonus hour in my day. Hesitant, as ever, to be wasteful, I resolved to spend my gifted hour thinking Interesting Thoughts.

Warren Buffett has more Continue reading →

T Rowe Price’s Calculated Bet: Why the Quintessential “Singles Hitter” Is Swinging for Crypto

By David Snowball

In the buttoned-down world of institutional asset management, T Rowe Price has long been the firm that makes boring look brilliant. While competitors chased hot trends and flashy returns, the Baltimore-based firm built its reputation as the quintessential “singles hitter,” compounding modest, steady gains into industry-leading long-term performance through disciplined, research-driven processes.

Which makes the 87-year-old firm’s October 2025 filing Continue reading →

Sector Performance

By Charles Lynn Bolin

In this topsy-turvy world, characterized by unprecedented tariffs, rapidly changing policies, spending cuts, geopolitical risk, high deficits, and elevated valuations, I tend to be more conservative. I have added toggles to my “Rate and Rank” spreadsheet, allowing me to evaluate funds through the lenses of “Risk Off” and “Yield” for a conservative, tax-advantaged account. Table #1 shows how I rank sector Lipper Categories from highest-ranked category to lowest, along with the highest-ranked five funds. Some sectors are in Continue reading →

Refining My Conservative Retirement Target Portfolio

By Charles Lynn Bolin

Using historical data on funds to make assumptions about future performance involves correctly interpreting the trends. Over the past six years, the U.S. has experienced an extraordinarily unusual period:

  • COVID bear market (01/2020 – 03/2020) with Quantitative Easing
  • Federal budget deficit rising from 4.5% of GDP to 6.3% (2019 to 2025) along with Gross Federal Debt to GDP rising from 105% of GDP to 119% today
  • Rising Inflation (05/2020 – 05/2022)
  • The Great Normalization bear market (02/2022 – 09/2022)
  • Rising rates (03/2022 – 07/2023),
  • Quantitative Tightening (11/2022 – ongoing)
  • The debasement trade with gold and cryptocurrencies rising (01/2023-ongoing)
  • High equity valuations (12/2023 – ongoing)
  • Federal Reserve cutting short-term interest rates (09/2024 – ongoing)
  • Unprecedented increase in tariffs (04/2025 – ongoing) followed by the April correction

Continue reading →

Launch Alert: GMO Dynamic Allocation ETF

By David Snowball

On October 13, 2025, GMO launched its newest ETF, GMO Dynamic Allocation ETF (GMOD). The ETF is managed by Co-Heads of Asset Allocation Ben Inker and John Thorndike, and draws on GMO’s proprietary 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts. It will typically range between 40% and 80% equity exposure and can invest broadly across stocks and bonds, not limited by sector, market cap, credit quality, or geography.

This would be an interesting but distinctly contrarian operation. The key is that GMO has a strong and well-founded belief that Continue reading →

Briefly Noted . . .

By TheShadow

Updates

Welcome to the casino! GraniteShares 3x Short AMD Daily ETP, a product marketed for European investors, recently pulled off the rare feat of going to zero. The fund, purely a speculator’s trading vehicle, was designed to rise by 3% for every 1% that AMD stock fell. Perfect opp for experienced sharks to dart in, tear off a chunk of carcass, and get out before anything bad can happen. Think of a holding time that might be measured in seconds, and you’re there.

The fund imploded when Continue reading →

October 1, 2025

By David Snowball

Dear friends,

Welcome to the October issue of the Mutual Fund Observer. We’re glad you’re here.

And welcome to the Dog Days of Autumn! The natural world is scrambling to keep up with the changes we’ve triggered, and continue to intensify, upon it. As I walked one of the many bike/hike trails in the Quad Cities on Sunday, I confronted two worlds. One was defined by 90-degree temperatures, hot sunshine, and cracked earth. The other by the rhythm of birds called southward and plants quietening for the season to Continue reading →

Launch Alert: Tweedy, Browne International Insider + Value ETF

By David Snowball

On September 10, 2025, Tweedy, Browne Company LLC, launched the International Insider + Value ETF (ICPY). The ETF is both actively managed and fully transparent, which might engender some risk (for example, front-running by high-speed traders) but also simplifies the structure and reduces complexity.

The managers have the freedom to create an all-cap, all-world portfolio that can invest in developed and developing markets and, to a limited extent, in the US. The plan is simple Continue reading →

Putting My Conservative Retirement Portfolio on Cruise Control

By Charles Lynn Bolin

I am well on my way to implementing my version of the all-weather portfolio, where some funds will perform well in any environment. This conservative retirement portfolio is a subset of my overall portfolio and fits into tax-advantaged accounts within the intermediate bucket, along with several traditional bond funds and bond ladders. The goal for this “basket” of funds is to have income that meets most withdrawal needs with some Continue reading →

Launch Alert: RACWI US ETF

By David Snowball

On September 12, 2025, Research Affiliates launched the RACWI US ETF, which will track its proprietary RACWI US Index. This is just RA’s second directly managed fund, following Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NIXT), which launched in September 2024 and targets the stocks dropped from traditional large- to mid-cap indexes.

Research Affiliates, founded in 2002 by Rob Arnott, is a Newport Beach–based investment firm recognized for Continue reading →