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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Superb Interview - Ron Baron - Squawk Box
    @Puddnhead: HC has disappointed in last 2 years. I watch RYH and a couple of select biotech stocks to try to detect positive sentiment in HC and I finally see some upward momentum. (Mentioning it will surely kill any rally.)
  • Superb Interview - Ron Baron - Squawk Box
    Hi BenWP,
    Good for you. I'm a Ron fan just like I was a Michael Price fan years ago. BCHCX was on my buy list but with healthcare slowing the last 2 years, I did not buy. But did add to FSMEX and FSPHX and am waiting for a pop in healthcare. Will add to BWBFX on weakness. And I like owning funds others don't want, especially young funds because they tend to run with good managers.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    And a world-wide perspective via NPR:
    Global food prices hit their highest recorded levels last month, driven up by the war
    Excerpts from that report:
    A United Nations agency says the war in Ukraine sent food commodity prices soaring in March to the highest levels it has ever recorded.
    The Food and Agriculture Organization announced on Friday that its FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a "basket of commonly-traded food commodities," averaged 159.3 points in March. That's up 12.6% from February, which already saw the highest level since the organization began tracking in 1990. It's also 33.6% higher than it was last March.
    Russia and Ukraine collectively accounted for about 30% of global wheat exports and 20% of maize exports over the last three years, the organization said, with conflict-related export disruptions in both countries prompting a surge in global prices of wheat and coarse grain. The FAO Cereal Price Index was 17.1% higher in March than it was in February.
    "The expected loss of exports from the Black Sea region exacerbated the already tight global availability of wheat," the organization added. "With concerns over crop conditions in the United States of America also adding support, world wheat prices rose sharply in March, soaring by 19.7 percent."
    It also notes that Ukraine is the world's leading exporter of sunflower seed oil, and says the rising prices of sunflower seed oil and crude oil raised the prices of other vegetable oils, like palm, soy and rapeseed. Altogether, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 23.2% in a month.
  • I Bond Question
    @yogibearbull : The bigger question , IMO, can one exchange I-bonds or must you sell & then buy. That would leave one with $10K in I-bonds over two years instead of a total of $20K.
    Thanks, Derf
  • I Bond Question
    @racqueteer, for I-Bonds, the new inflation rate will apply to existing bonds with some delay. The rate cycle starts with 6 months at the "current rate" from the purchase date, then another 6 months for the "new" rate, and so on. Think of it as applying rates with a phase shift. So, it doesn't make sense to trade old I-Bonds UNLESS the fixed rate changes significantly and inflation rate also remains high.
    EE-Bonds are different. The rate at the time of purchase is locked in for 30 years and that rate is a terrible 0.10%. But EE Bonds are guaranteed to DOUBLE on 20 years + 1 day, so that is one-time realized rate of 3.53% annualized (if held for 20 years + 1 day). I don't recommend new EE Bonds although the old pre-2005 bond are OK to hold to maturity.
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    @Crash and @Puddnhead et al
    New Canadian budget to add tax burden to banks/insurance companies for 5 years.
    Before one gets into a huff about this (taxes)..........during the pandemic, the Canadian gov't. provided back stops for these institutions.....now is repay time. The article explains the circumstances.
    I haven't a clue as to how this will affect profit performance going forward for the banks/insurance companies.
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    @Sven FICDX. upside: 120. Downside 86. (On Morningstar, the low-medium-high RISK slide rule is missing. "Insufficient data.") The only peer that Morningstar offers for comparison is Matthews Korea. That's pretty nuts.
    EWC = +5.84%. (10 years.). oops, that's annualized. It's +76.45% cumulative.
    Note: the top two holdings in FICDX and EWC are the same: Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto Dominion Bank. (TD, in the States.) FICDX owns MORE. Combined, they are 20.42% of total portfolio. That actually makes sense to me. As Danielle Park said many years ago: "Canada still primarily sells rocks and trees to the rest of the world." The big exception is the biggest 6 banks, and the biggest FIVE, in particular.
    CM, BMO, TD, RY, BNS. They operate pretty much with monopoly power. ...... But remember this: "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada gets the flu."
  • I Bond Question
    I view savings bonds as most closely comparable to 1 year CDs, because the savings bonds are locked up for 12 months (actually as little as 11+ 1 day).
    After that, while it is true that like longer term CDs, savings bonds may be redeemed early with penalty, the two are not very comparable.
    CDs are yielding so much less than I bonds that even after subtracting out the penalty on an I bond early redemption, one still comes out ahead. One might as well think of the I bond as a one year savings bond yielding 5%+. At that rate it has "no penalty" and still looks better.
    But it gets worse for the CDs. Typically, brokered CDs (e.g. from Schwab, Fidelity, etc.) cannot be redeemed, though there may be a small secondary market for them. Even if that market exists, with rising rates, one will still lose out. OTOH, if rates fall, longer term (e.g. 5 year) brokered CDs tend to be callable. With brokered CDs, heads one loses, tails one loses.
    CDs offered through banks tend to have higher withdrawal penalties for longer term maturities. This is another reason why I prefer to compare savings bonds with 1 year CDs.
    Marcus Bank has a typical penalty schedule: 90 days interest on one 1 year CDs, and 180 days on CDs up to and including 5 years. Ally Bank is a bit better, charging just 60 days for CDs up to and including 2 years, 90 days for CDs more than 2 years up to and including 3 years, 120 days for CDs up to 4 years, and 150 days for CDs of 4 years or more.
    Baseball_Fan mentioned taxes. Interest on CDs is taxable annually (even if you leave it in the CD), unless the CD is for a term of one year or less. Taxes on savings bonds are deferred until redemption (unless you elect to recognize interest annually). Thus only CDs of one year or less get the same tax treatment (deferred until maturity) as savings bonds.
  • I Bond Question
    Only if cashing them after 12 months - you are totally locked in for 12 months, and then 3-mo penalty within 5 years.
    Cash early in the month to get interest for the WHOLE month.
    If you mean getting only the interest, then the answer is NO. You have to cash them partially electronically, or cash paper bonds in chunks.
    These restrictions are the reasons that I suggest that I-Bonds be compared with 5-yr CDs (the best national rate is only 1.79%).
    BTW, my guess is that those sitting on the fences may find the new I-Bond rate on May 1 too good to pass up. Don't hold me to it but MY guess is 8.8% (up from the current 7.12%).
  • I Bond Question
    There is a 3 month penalty for cashing Savings Bonds within 5 years. So, you should start to see interest posted AFTER 3 months. Don't worry, Uncle Sam is not stiffing you for interest (-:).
  • I Bond Question
    So, finally opened Treasury Direct Accounts (much easier than the last time I did so years ago) and bought I bonds for wife and I. When can I expect to see earned interest in my account on Treasury Direct? Thanks!
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    Tough to find actual peers, but it would not be too freaky to look at a CANADIAN-market Index fund, I suppose. In other news: a random walk through the park shows me the following:
    VPADX. Vang. Pacific. (10 years) +88.59%
    PRWCX. TRP. +224.02%
    MAKOX. +97.51%
    PRLAX. -4.98%
    PRMSX. +46.66%
    IRL. +13.49%
    There's a link on this page to a full list of closed-end funds trading in Toronto. But when I click on it, it downloads to my computer rather than just OPENING. That's perfect. THAT way, the list is utterly lost and in the midst of oblivion somewhere.
    https://www.tsx.com/listings/listing-with-us/sector-and-product-profiles/closed-end-funds
  • Fidelity Canada FICDX
    FICDX. +100% in 10 years. Anyone own that fund and can gloat to the rest of us?
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    I have been a food buyer in the grocery business for forty years. Currently our average case cost is up 13.9% year over year with more price increases coming everyday. If the current tend continues look for a 20% or more food inflation this year.
  • RCTIX - Manager Change
    This does not bother me at all in terms of whether the guy is a competent and professional investment manager. One bad event in 1997? You're making many assumptions to say he "lied about it" over 20 years later. The charge was downgraded to a non-felony. The application in question asked for whether he was "charged" with a felony and he should have checked yes. I have a buddy (lawyer) who made the exact same mistake on his Fla. bar application. In his mind over 2 decades later he remembered the event and what the final result was, not the initial charge. The Fla bar tortured this guy mercilessly even though he was a practicing lawyer for years elsewhere with no issues.
  • Inflation: Food prices are going up — and at levels Americans haven't seen in decades
    You heard wrong. Y/Y inflation for 1952 (70 years ago) ranged from a high of 4.3% (Jan) to a low of 0.8% (Dec). Not a year of high inflation.
    Y/Y inflation remained below 5% until the spring of 1969. The only double digit Y/Y figures come from 1974-1975 and 1979-1981, peaking at 14.8% in March 1980. I'm sure those periods ring economic bells for some people.
    My data source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
    (Select "More Formatting Options", and then select the checkbox "12 month percent change")
    What is your source?
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    Howdy folks,
    @yogibearbull Yeppers, you are absolutely correct. Not only can there be issues with different rules for different countries, but bullion ETF are taxable as collectibles at 28%. This means you always keep these in either a deferred or tax exempt account.
    I've owned CEF for years with no problems.
    thanks,
    rono
  • M* acquisition

    I understand this will be part of their just-launched Wealth Management Solutions Group which consolidates a bunch of related services.....
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/morningstar-plans-to-acquire-leveraged-commentary--data-301516351.html
    CHICAGO and SEATTLE, April 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Morningstar Inc. (MORN), a leading provider of independent investment research (Nasdaq: MORN), has reached an agreement to acquire Leveraged Commentary & Data (LCD), a market leader in news, research, data, insights, and indexes for the leveraged finance market from S&P Global. The purchase price is up to $650 million in cash, comprised of $600 million at closing, subject to certain adjustments, and a contingent payment of up to $50 million six months after closing, upon the achievement of certain conditions related to the transition of LCD customer relationships.
    LCD is the industry standard for leveraged loan data, news, analysis, and indexes, providing coverage across the full lifecycle of loans. The leveraged loan market data provider will integrate with Morningstar's PitchBook Platform, which delivers data, research, and technology covering the breadth of the private and public capital markets. This unique dataset combined with PitchBook's already robust data, insights, and technology will create a centralized platform for participants in the leveraged finance market.
    < - >
    The acquisition of LCD will complement PitchBook's robust product and research capabilities and provide coverage of every metric of the leveraged loan market, including structure, pricing, yield, volume, along with secondary market performance and LBO/private equity activity. LCD is the only provider of real-time coverage of the U.S. and European leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets, from deal inception through the trading life of the debt. It also provides growing coverage of investment grade bond issuance, distressed debt, corporate bankruptcies, middle market transactions and CLO/fundraising. Over 20 years, LCD has provided data on over 30,000 issuers and 85,000 transactions.
    LCD has more than 500 leveraged loan indexes in the U.S. and Europe tracking performance, index characteristics, and risk measures comprised of over 1,800 loans. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index—the flagship benchmark for this asset class—and related indexes will become part of the expanding fixed-income capabilities from Morningstar Indexes, one of the fastest-growing global index providers.
    < - >
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    “Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself,”
    Agree. The fund has ISTM received an inordinate amount of commentary in the media (and perhaps here). I guess the media likes bright and shiny objects - likes them even better after the gloss fades and they become objects of derision.
    @Baseball_Fan ‘s comments spark a few additional questions …
    (1) To what extent do CNBC & others allow ratings (ie advertising dollars) to affect what they cover and how they cover it? My uninformed guess is that ratings matter a great deal more than whether viewers’ pocketbooks are well served.
    (2) To what extent is “salesmanship” important to running a fund?
    (3) Is there something special about Wood’s demeanor / public persona that tends to attract some investors and/or foster a cult following?
    These type of stocks offer little appeal to me. But were I to find a niche in my portfolio for them, I’d rather research 4 or 5 individual stocks on my own and invest small sums directly in them, figuring 1 or 2 will go bust, but 2 or 3 might prosper. The advantage is you are less at the mercy of fund flows than owning them through a fund. Individual investors are also more nimble ISTM than a manager of billions - able to get in and out of positions more quickly.
    I think of the great investors / fund managers who inspired me over the years. Names like John Templeton, John Bogle or Michael Price. I see them shaking their heads at the Wood methodology and sales pitch.
  • Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year
    Hey Team,
    Hmm...interesting comments...couple thoughts...
    - watched Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday, (btw, great podcast, he brings on some heavy hitters, relevant, fresh thinking, not same ole, same ole, keeps it real, some f bombs etc), had Adam Parker (Trivariate Research, formerly Chief US Equity Strategist and Global Dir of Quantitative Research, Morgan Stanley) on, convo dabbled on going out on risk curve...Mr Parker mentions (paraphrasing) he'd rather go long some Biotech small/mid stocks and short the profitless software stocks"...don't recall if he positoned the convo as an alternate to the Wood/Ark, my interpretation was if he was to go very aggressive he'd rather do that....you'll have to listen for yourself.
    Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself, if I was to "go for it", I'd rather invest with the Zevenberger growth funds...ZVNIX, ZVGNX (Genea fund)...they both smoke ARKK in the past 3 years...I think they seem more rational, don't come across as somewhat "kooky" (whatever that means these days)....been doing this agressive innovation investing thing for a while...why no one mention here?? Is it because polarizing figures like Wood get more eyeballs, invoke more emotion..?
    Best Regards and Good Health to ALL,
    Baseball Fan